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Nearly 60% of US500 Stocks Were Oversold. At Record Highs. In September, the share of oversold stocks in the US500 jumped to nearly 60%, the same level as at the March 2026 low. This time, the index sat near its record high.

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The Weakest Bonds Are Cracking First CCC-rated junk bonds (blue), the lowest quality in the market, show an unusual acceleration of weakness, while the broader high yield market (white) stays relatively calm.

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The 10-Year Yield Rejected Above 5.3% The 10-year Treasury yield pushed above 5.3%, back at its 2007 highs, and got rejected.

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$QQQ Back in the Middle. We Stay Short. $QQQ got rejected at the 760 call resistance and slipped back below the 0DTE gamma wall at 757.50. Now it trades at 753.89, right in the middle of the range. Key levels: 760: call resistance 757.50: call resistance 0DTE / gamma wall 750: put support 0DTE

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A New #1 From Wall Street: $Silver $Silver just saw a new #1 largest dark pool sweep. A sweep means very fast execution, often a sign of an information edge.

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Everyone Bets on Rising Yields. What If They Fall? $TLT trades at 76.90, below the 81.41 level that held since 2003. Long-term Treasuries sit at their lowest level in the ETF's history, and rising yields have become one of the most crowded trades.

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This Has Only Happened Twice Before: 1929 and 1999 The US500 trades at record highs, yet the NYSE recently saw twice as many new 52-week lows as new highs. According to SentimenTrader, this only happened in 1929 and 1999. Both times, markets fell sharply 6 to 9 months later.

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Brazil Just Had Its Biggest Market Day in Years The Ibovespa jumped 7.7% to a record 206,912, its first close above 200,000 ever. The $EWZ ETF now trades at 43.18, well above its April high near 42.

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$US500 Hit the 7,850 Wall and Got Rejected The $US500 pushed up to the call resistance / 0DTE gamma wall at 7,850 and reversed immediately. Now it trades at 7,767, down 0.77%, sitting right on the 0DTE put support at 7,763. Key levels:

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Why Mid-October Matters in Midterm Years In midterm election years, volatility often peaks in mid-October and then fades into the November elections.

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The Oil Market Is Pricing In Higher Prices for Years WTI futures for December 2027 just hit a record high of 76.38, breaking above the previous highs near 75 from May and June. In December 2025, the same contract was still trading around 57, a gain of roughly 34%.

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Morgan Stanley: The Market Is at a Crossroads Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson sees a 12% gap between index prices and market breadth. That gap has to close, one way or another. Scenario 1: Treasury volatility stays high, and the $US500 could drop to 7,300 within a month before rebounding.

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The Index Is Up. Your Portfolio Isn't? You are not alone. The $US500 trades near its record high, but the average stock tells a different story. As of late September, 59% of US500 stocks were at least 20% below their all-time highs. The equal-weight index ($RSP) is about 6% off its August peak.

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The Chart Everyone Should Remember From 2007 In October 2007, the US500 made a higher high, while financials ($XLF) had already turned lower. What followed was the financial crisis, with $XLF falling around 78%.

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Oil's New Problem Isn't Supply. It's Shipping. Shipping a barrel of crude from West Africa to China on a supertanker now costs $27.22, up from under $10 in August. The year-to-date average is just $7.37.

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Bonds vs. Stocks: One of Them Is Wrong The last two MOVE spikes, in April 2025 and March 2026, both came with a sharp selloff in the US500. Now the MOVE is spiking again, but the $US500 sits near its record high. Either bonds are wrong, or stocks haven't caught up yet.

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$Gold Losing Its Shine? $Gold trades at 4,122, after a series of lower highs since its February peak near 5,600. The latest rally got rejected at 4,200 to 4,250. $Silver is struggling as well. Key levels:

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Yields and Oil Are Telling Different Stories The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 5.32%, its highest level in decades. Some even expect 6.8%, which would hit housing and refinancing hard.

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$QQQ Breaks Out. Now Comes the Real Test. $QQQ closed at a record 756.20, up 0.88%, and is already trading at 760 premarket, right at the key call resistance. Key levels: 760: call resistance 757.50: call resistance 0DTE / gamma wall 740: put support 0DTE 700: put support

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Whales Are Pulling $Bitcoin Off Exchanges $Bitcoin keeps climbing in steps: consolidation, breakout, consolidation. Now it trades at 85,700, holding above the breakout level at 85,000. Whales are withdrawing coins from exchanges, a sign they plan to hold. ETF flows remain positive, led by $IBIT.

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Big Money Is Moving Across Borders Japanese funds are selling French government bonds and rotating their money elsewhere.

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$US500 at 7,800: Breakout or False Break? The $US500 trades at 7,780, right below resistance at 7,800, a key options level that has capped every rally since August. Key levels: 7,800: resistance 7,700: support

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Wall Street Just Raised the Bar for Earnings Expectations heading into Q3 earnings season are unusually strong. $US500 earnings are now expected to grow 29.5%, with revenue growth of 12.3%. On June 30, the estimates were still 26.7% and 10.9%.

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The 9 Best Months in Market History Could Start Soon Fisher Investments founder Ken Fisher says the period after the midterm elections has been the most consistently profitable 9 months in stock market history.

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Tech Up, Almost Everything Else Down 44.6% of tech stocks trade at 4-week highs. In consumer discretionary, it is only 8 to 12%. Over the last five sessions, only tech and energy carried the market. Big banks fell around 10% while the index stayed near its all-time high.

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Tech Hits New Highs: What History Says Not every tech stock is running, but the AI leaders are making new all-time highs. Over roughly the past decade, after tech broke to a new high following a sideways phase, the broader market was higher one month later in 100% of cases.

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$MRNA: +200% Since Our Setup, Still Holding On Aug 8, we shared a long setup on $MRNA after it reclaimed the 20 SMA, using a Turbo Call with 2.5x leverage at the start. $MRNA had been on our watchlist for weeks before the setup triggered.

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Bonds Are Panicking. Stocks Haven't Noticed. The MOVE Index jumped 47% in a month to 110.5, while the VIX barely moved from 14.9 to 16.3. The MOVE/VIX ratio now sits in the 90th percentile since 2002. A divergence this big is rare. Calm before the storm?

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$QQQ at Record Highs. A False Rally? $QQQ hit a new all-time high near 754 and pulled back right away. It closed Friday at 749.45 and trades around 747.70 premarket, just below the put support at 750. Key levels: 760: call resistance 0DTE / gamma wall 750: put support 725: put support

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tradicted @tradicted.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

US500 COT Data: Commercials Turn Net Long Commercial traders hold a net position of +7,462 contracts as of Sept 29, up 1,219 from the previous week. After dipping well below zero during the Iran war selloff, they have turned net long again.

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The Energy Crisis Is Now Eating Into Emergency Reserves The G7 is releasing up to 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil from strategic reserves to ease pressure on energy markets. The release starts immediately, with a substantial amount of diesel expected within the first 20 days.

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tradicted @tradicted.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

America’s Oil Safety Net Is Shrinking Fast The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has dropped to just 284 million barrels. Another 785,000 barrels disappeared in the latest week alone.

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$QQQ: $750 Survives Again Just two days after the monthly candle failed to take out $750, the weekly candle couldn't do it either. $QQQ closed at $749.58, barely slipping back inside the range. Still, this marks the highest weekly close ever for $QQQ.

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$GOLD Is Facing a Serious Test $GOLD closed below $4,200 as elevated U.S. yields continue to pressure the metal. The key support zone now sits around $4,000–4,140. A break below would put $3,800 back in focus, with $3,500 as the deeper downside level.

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Morgan Stanley Names $NVDA Its Top Semiconductor Pick Morgan Stanley continues to see $NVDA as its top pick across the semiconductor sector. The key argument is not just AI enthusiasm. The firm points to broad customer demand and rising revenue generated per gigawatt of AI infrastructure.

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Market Breadth Remains Weak $QQQ is breaking above $750, while the broader market continues to lag. The NYSE Composite and AD Line remain under pressure, although $NYA is still holding key support. Support holds → stabilization possible. Support breaks → breadth weakness becomes more concerning.

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High Yield Spreads Keep Breaking Out The US High Yield Spread climbed to 3.12%, clearly above the 2.86 level and up from 2.66% on Sept 21. That is about +46 bps in under two weeks. Credit markets are pricing in more risk, while the stock market still trades near its highs. Calm before the storm?

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The World's Biggest Hedge Is Breaking Out The US Dollar is spiking to levels not seen in more than 18 months. Many expected it to fall, and in July and August it looked like a double bottom, then came a sharp move higher.

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$QQQ Gaps Above $750 $QQQ is opening with a gap above the key $750 level after the weak jobs report. A close above $750 today would confirm the breakout from the recent range and shift the structure bullish for now. But Call Resistance sits at $760.05. That is the next major test for buyers.

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SEC Opens a New Door for Institutional Crypto Capital The SEC has proposed new rules for how investment advisers and regulated funds can hold crypto assets.

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South Korea's Crash: A Warning for Wall Street? The KOSPI suffered one of the worst crashes in its history, losing more than 40%, including a 10% drop on "Black Tuesday". Foreign investors keep pulling money out, about $7.3B in August alone, after seven months of selling. What drove it:

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Bond Volatility Is Spiking The MOVE Index, the "VIX of the bond market", closed September at 110.46, up roughly 45% in a single month. The highest monthly close since spring 2025. Spikes like this often come with risk-off moves in other markets.

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Bonds: Terrible Monthly Close $TLT, the 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, closed September at 77.78, its lowest monthly close in years. The ETF broke clearly below its support zone around 84 to 89, a range that held since late 2023. It is now more than 50% below its 2020 peak.

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Of Every $1 in the US500, 41 Cents Go to Just 10 Stocks The Magnificent 7 alone make up 35 cents of every dollar invested in the US500. Add $AVGO, $MU and $AMD, and the top 10 reach 41 cents. The biggest single weights: $NVDA 8¢, $AAPL 7¢, $MSFT 6¢, $GOOGL 6¢.

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$US500 Stuck Between Key Levels The $US500 trades at 7,682, holding above the 0DTE put support at 7,650 but still below resistance at 7,700. Key levels: 7,750: call resistance 0DTE / gamma wall 7,700: resistance 7,650: put support 0DTE 7,500: put support

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$QQQ Rejected at the Call Wall Again Yesterday $QQQ tagged the call wall at 745 and got rejected, closing at 739.77. The daily candle looks like a shooting star, with a long upper wick and a small body.

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🪙 $Bitcoin Consolidating in a Tight Range $Bitcoin trades at 83,195 and has been moving sideways in a range between roughly 82,700 and 85,200 since Sept 22, a typical consolidation after the strong rally. The monthly close above 82,000 to 83,000 was important and held.

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