iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Tiago Ferraz @tpferraz.bsky.social · 16/02/2026

For instance: the debate on minimum wage and employment, incorporating the latest empirical debate. Please share your ideas. Self-promotion is not only expected but encouraged.

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Tiago Ferraz @tpferraz.bsky.social · 16/02/2026

Hi everyone. Looking for suggestions. This semester I’ll be teaching an undergraduate course on general topics in economic theory. My idea is to cover well-established theoretical frameworks and pair them with the most recent empirical evidence.

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Tiago Ferraz @tpferraz.bsky.social · 09/01/2026

We have a new version of this paper that highlights the IO aspects of religious change. Check it out: github.com/tiagopferraz...

github.com

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Tiago Ferraz @tpferraz.bsky.social · 02/10/2025

Hoje a @folha.com publica artigo em que comentamos os achados dessa pesquisa. Em poucas palavras, o lado da oferta, geralmente pouco estudado, importa muito. t.co/OlFHTgCvQe

t.co

https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/cotidiano/2025/10/como-a-migracao-impulsionou-o-boom-evangelico.shtml

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Tiago Ferraz @tpferraz.bsky.social · 05/08/2025

Vai ser ótimo ter um feedback seu, quando vc puder, claro.

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Tiago Ferraz @tpferraz.bsky.social · 04/08/2025

In short, migration transformed Brazil’s cities, and Evangelical churches were uniquely positioned to respond. This wasn’t just about belief! It was about market adaptation. You can check the paper here: github.com/tiagopferraz... Feel free to contact us and talk about it!

github.com

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Tiago Ferraz @tpferraz.bsky.social · 04/08/2025

🟣 To explain the observed Evangelical rise via income alone, wages would’ve had to fall between 60% and 80%, which is unlikely. 🟢 But a 20% increase in Evangelical temples, holding income fixed, is sufficient to replicate the observed shift in Evangelical affiliation.

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Tiago Ferraz @tpferraz.bsky.social · 04/08/2025

To unpack the contribution of each mechanism, we have a structural model of religious choice, which suggests that the supply-side response was the main driver of migration-induced Evangelical growth. Our counterfactual exercises show that:

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Tiago Ferraz @tpferraz.bsky.social · 04/08/2025

The difference comes down to institutional flexibility. Evangelical churches usually have lower fixed costs and decentralized leadership, while the Catholic Church is more centralized and capital-intensive, requiring long priest training and dedicated buildings.

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Tiago Ferraz @tpferraz.bsky.social · 04/08/2025

Why? Two main mechanisms: 🔸 Demand-side: migration reduced local wages, especially among informal workers, making Evangelical churches, known for community support, more attractive. 🔸 Supply-side: Evangelical churches rapidly expanded in response to growing urban populations.

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Tiago Ferraz @tpferraz.bsky.social · 04/08/2025

We find: ✅ Migration led to a decline in Catholic affiliation while simultaneously leading to an increase in Evangelical affiliation ✅ It explains ~23% of the rise in Evangelicalism over the period

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Tiago Ferraz @tpferraz.bsky.social · 04/08/2025

We use exogenous variation in migration flows driven by international commodity price shocks to isolate the impact from other confounding factors and alleviate concerns about migrants' self-selection. We then ask: how did it affect the people already living in destination cities?

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Tiago Ferraz @tpferraz.bsky.social · 04/08/2025

A popular explanation for this? Migration. Millions of people moved to urban centers where Evangelical churches were emerging. But was migration the cause of this religious transformation? And if so, how?

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Tiago Ferraz @tpferraz.bsky.social · 04/08/2025

Between 1980 and 2010, Brazil saw one of the most striking religious shifts in the world: - Catholic affiliation fell from ~90% to ~65%. - Evangelical affiliation more than tripled. This reshaped politics, identity, and community life.

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Tiago Ferraz @tpferraz.bsky.social · 04/08/2025

🚨New working paper 🚨 How did migration reshape Brazil’s religious landscape? Raphael Corbi, Fabio Miessi, and I have a new paper showing that internal migration drove a major religious shift by transforming local religious markets instead of converting migrants or spreading beliefs. 👇

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Our World in Data @ourworldindata.org · 10/06/2025

Our own @hannahritchie.bsky.social did a video last year with Big Think called “What the news won't tell you about climate change” — and it just won gold at the 2025 Telly Awards as the best non-broadcast video on sustainability!

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Tiago Ferraz @tpferraz.bsky.social · 04/05/2025

If this topic interests you, I encourage you to check the paper: github.com/tiagopferraz...

github.com

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Tiago Ferraz @tpferraz.bsky.social · 04/05/2025

Additionally, our work relates to a recent paper by @gulyssea.bsky.social and Clément Imbert, which shows that workers transition from informal to formal jobs over the long run, driven by increased formal firms and job opportunities. (9/n)

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Tiago Ferraz @tpferraz.bsky.social · 04/05/2025

In our research, we show that incoming migration results in a reduction in formal employment that closely matches the increase in informality and decreases in total compensation in the formal sector (earnings and non-wage benefits) and the earnings of informal workers. (8/n)

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Tiago Ferraz @tpferraz.bsky.social · 04/05/2025

...of the effects of labor supply shocks on native workers, particularly in the formal sector. For instance, studies by Kleemans & Magruder (2018) and El-Badaoui et al. (2017) find that immigration increases informality and reduces earnings among native informal workers. (7/n)

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Tiago Ferraz @tpferraz.bsky.social · 04/05/2025

...in the Semiarid region and existing migrant networks to forecast the number of incoming workers at their destinations. Much of the current empirical literature overlooks other adjustment margins beyond unemployment or wages, which can lead to an underestimation... (6/n)

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Tiago Ferraz @tpferraz.bsky.social · 04/05/2025

...and informal labor, this competition may also lead to reduced compensation for formal workers, whether through earnings or non-wage benefits. To accurately identify these impacts, we rely on a shift-share IV, using weather shocks in the municipalities of origin... (5/n)

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Tiago Ferraz @tpferraz.bsky.social · 04/05/2025

...to use both formal and informal labor in their production processes. Our model predicts that competition from incoming migrants can decrease earnings for native workers in the informal sector. Additionally, depending on the elasticities of substitution between formal... (4/n)

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Tiago Ferraz @tpferraz.bsky.social · 04/05/2025

As established by Harris and Todaro (1970) and Fields (1975), incoming migration can lead to higher unemployment or informality in urban areas. We extend these models by incorporating non-wage benefits into the compensation packages for formal workers and allowing firms... (3/n)

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Tiago Ferraz @tpferraz.bsky.social · 04/05/2025

We examine the impact of a supply shock of low-educated workers on local labor markets in Brazil from 1996 to 2010. Like many developing countries, Brazil has a dual-sector economy where formal and informal sectors coexist. (2/n)

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Tiago Ferraz @tpferraz.bsky.social · 04/05/2025

I'm thrilled to have my first paper accepted for publication in the Journal of Development Economics. It has been a long journey, beginning even before starting grad school. Let me give you an overview of this paper. (1/n)

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Reposted by Tiago Ferraz

VoxDev @voxdev.bsky.social · 17/04/2025

🆕 How regulating junkyards reduced car theft in Brazil Today on VoxDev, André Mancha (@j-pal.bsky.social) discusses how increased regulation of the second-hand automotive part market reduced car theft in Brazil: voxdev.org/topic/instit...

voxdev.org

How regulating junkyards reduced car theft in Brazil

Unregulated markets for second-hand goods fuel crime worldwide. In Brazil, strengthening oversight of the second-hand market for automotive parts helped reduce car theft, simultaneously lowering insur...

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Tiago Ferraz @tpferraz.bsky.social · 28/01/2025

O verdadeiro teste é pedir pra ele estimar o efeito multiplicador de uns gastos aí...

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Tiago Ferraz @tpferraz.bsky.social · 28/01/2025

Unfortunately, it cannot reshape because it lacks training data

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Reposted by Tiago Ferraz

Nicola Rennie @nrennie.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

🚨 New blog post! 🚨 If you want to learn about: 🎨 How to define colours in R 📊 Choosing palettes for plots 🛠️ Generating your own colours Read this ➡️ nrennie.rbind.io/blog/colours... #DataViz #RStats #ggplot2 #RLadies

nrennie.rbind.io

Working with colours in R | Nicola Rennie

Whether you're building data visualisations or generative art, at some point you will likely need to consider which colours to use in R. This blog post describes different ways to define colours, how ...

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Ana Paula Melo @anamelo.bsky.social · 20/12/2024

Hello, #econsky! I have a question for you: What’s your preferred way to post working papers and track citations? Are there drawbacks to using repositories like SSRN or arXiv?

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Tiago Ferraz @tpferraz.bsky.social · 16/12/2024

Great resource for applied economists

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Tiago Ferraz @tpferraz.bsky.social · 11/12/2024

I'm thrilled to receive the 2024 Haralambos Simeonides Best Dissertation Award from ANPEC. Thanks to my supervisor, Raphael Corbi, and my co-author, Renata Narita, for all the support over these years.

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Peter Hull @instrumenthull.bsky.social · 09/12/2024

new WP y'all www.nber.org/papers/w33236

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Tiago Ferraz @tpferraz.bsky.social · 08/12/2024

É assim que se faz turismo de verdade. Mas, e as bibocas de culinária nativa?

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Reposted by Tiago Ferraz

David Evans @daveevansphd.bsky.social · 03/12/2024

Can anyone recommend a recent working paper or job market paper on discrimination in the judicial system in a country in Latin America or the Caribbean? (Self promotion welcome!)

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Tiago Ferraz @tpferraz.bsky.social · 02/12/2024

This paper looks really cool!

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Reposted by Tiago Ferraz

Andreas Diemer @andreasmdiemer.bsky.social · 29/11/2024

Thrilled to share that my paper “Spatial Diffusion of Local Economic Shocks in Social Networks: Evidence from the US Fracking Boom” was accepted at JOLE earlier this year. Full article here👉 doi.org/10.1086/732300. A short 🧵 below - my first on 🦋! @jlaborecon.bsky.social @sofi.su.se #econsky 1/7

journals.uchicago.edu

Spatial Diffusion of Local Economic Shocks in Social Networks: Evidence from the US Fracking Boom | Journal of Labor Economics: Vol 0, No ja

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Magnus B Rasmussen @magnusrasmussen.bsky.social · 30/11/2024

Please fix your handle and bio before you start following people. Makes it a lot easier to know whether people should follow you or not.

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