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Csaba G. Tóth @tothgcsaba.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Low fertility accounts for half of population ageing in Central and Eastern Europe from 1990 to 2025. The region’s mean age rose from 35 to 43 years, with initial age structure contributing more than mortality improvements and migration combined. My working paper is out! kti.krtk.hu/wp-content/u...

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Csaba G. Tóth @tothgcsaba.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Life expectancy in Hungary has roughly doubled since 1900. The greatest gains occurred between 1925 and 1950, while progress was slowest between 1975 and 2000. #demography #Hungary

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Reposted by Csaba G. Tóth

Jenn Dowd @drjenndowd.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

For decades, it's been a truism that younger generations are healthier & live longer (on average) than their parents' generation. Sadly, there are signs that our health may be "drifting" backward. Read more about "generational health drift": jenndowd.substack.com/p/is-50-the-... #demography

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Reposted by Csaba G. Tóth

Jenn Dowd @drjenndowd.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

1/ New in @pnasnexus.org: Demography strikes again! The mortality penalty associated w/ smoking has seemingly grown over time. Speculation centered on biological reasons, like more intensive smoking, or more negative selection of smokers on other characteristics. academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/ar...

academic.oup.com

Why the mortality penalty of smoking is rising over time

Abstract. The adverse association between smoking and mortality is well known, yet estimated risks for smokers have risen markedly in recent decades. Expla

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Csaba G. Tóth @tothgcsaba.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

Women reach age 45 with an average of more than 2 children in France and Ireland—but only 1.35 in Spain and 1.44 in Italy. Not a single EU country reaches the replacement level of around 2.1. #demography #fertility #EU

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Csaba G. Tóth @tothgcsaba.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

Hungary’s migration balance has recently fallen to nearly zero, further accelerating population decline. This was driven mainly by a sharp rise in the emigration of Asian nationals living in Hungary. #demography #Hungary #migration #Asia #population

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Csaba G. Tóth @tothgcsaba.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

Sweden's unprecedented fertility decline is driven by the missing first child. Not fewer second kids. Not fewer third kids. Not fewer couples. The drop is entirely in first births, as childless people simply aren't taking the step to parenthood. #demography #Sweden framtidmedbarn.se/wp-content/u...

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Csaba G. Tóth @tothgcsaba.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

Canada’s fertility decline may not simply be about people having fewer children than they want. Fertility intentions themselves are falling.Around half of young women now enter their reproductive years intending to remain childless. #demography #fertility www.demographic-research.org/articles/vol...

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Csaba G. Tóth @tothgcsaba.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

Childlessness among Nordic men has generally increased over recent decades. Finland saw the sharpest rise, from 19% in 1990 to almost 30% in 2024, while Norway reached 27%. Nearly one in three Finnish men is now childless at age 45. #demography #fertlity norden.diva-portal.org/smash/get/di...

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Csaba G. Tóth @tothgcsaba.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

Hungary’s population is ageing, yet the number of deaths fell to a historic low in 2025. This may reflect the pandemic’s mortality displacement (harvesting) effect and/or rising life expectancy. #demography #Hungary

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Csaba G. Tóth @tothgcsaba.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

The freefall in Hungary’s fertility rate may have ended, or at least paused at a very low level. Still, the number of births has fallen by one quarter over the past five years. #demography #fertility #Hungary

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Csaba G. Tóth @tothgcsaba.bsky.social · 29/07/2026

TFR can fluctuate with birth timing, but completed cohort fertility shows a clearer trend: over recent decades, the number of children women have by age 45 has declined in most countries, except the United States and Sweden. Excellent paper: www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=... #demography #fertility #US

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Csaba G. Tóth @tothgcsaba.bsky.social · 24/07/2026

Fertility is in freefall. More than 2 billion people now live in countries with a TFR below 1.3—a level that implies rapid population decline without substantial immigration. The fall is deeper, broader and likely more persistent than previously expected. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

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Csaba G. Tóth @tothgcsaba.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

Hong Kong's mean ideal family size fell from 1.8 to 1.47 over 25 years. The two-child ideal was replaced first by one-child ideals, then zero-child ideals. #demography #fertility www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

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Csaba G. Tóth @tothgcsaba.bsky.social · 18/07/2026

Hungary experienced the second-largest population decline in the EU in 2024. Strikingly, all five countries with the sharpest population losses were in Central and Eastern Europe, highlighting the region’s deepening demographic challenges. More on this: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

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Csaba G. Tóth @tothgcsaba.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

Fertility policy can work — at least in the short term. Hungary’s 2019 pronatalist package appears to have accelerated the decline in birth intervals, reinforcing a trend that had already begun with the post-crisis economic recovery. #demography #fertility #birth #Hungary

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Csaba G. Tóth @tothgcsaba.bsky.social · 26/06/2026

The leading cause of death among young men isn't cancer or infectious disease—it's injury. Road traffic crashes, violence, and self-harm account for the largest share of deaths among males aged 15–24 across every income group. #demography desapublications.un.org/publications...

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Csaba G. Tóth @tothgcsaba.bsky.social · 26/06/2026

The total fertility rate dropped to 1.31 in the 12 months ending in May 2026 in Hungary, while the number of live births fell by 4.4% compared with the previous year. #demography #fertility #Hungary

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Csaba G. Tóth @tothgcsaba.bsky.social · 20/06/2026

Most EU countries are expected to shrink by 2050, with the steepest declines in the East and South. Continued population growth is projected in only a handful of countries, including Luxembourg, Ireland, Sweden, the Netherlands and France. #demography #Poland #France  op.europa.eu/en/publicati...

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Csaba G. Tóth @tothgcsaba.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

Hungary’s fertility trend broadly follows European patterns, but its mortality remains much higher than that of its peers. This deserves more attention: beyond the individual gains of longer, healthier lives, improvements in mortality could also significantly moderate population loss. #demography

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Csaba G. Tóth @tothgcsaba.bsky.social · 15/06/2026

Childlessness is no longer marginal. Among women born around 1980, roughly 1 in 4 are childless by their mid-40s in Spain, Greece and Switzerland. At the other end, the share is around 10% or lower in Romania, Portugal, Iceland and Bulgaria. #demography #Fertility #Hungary #Poland #Spain

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Csaba G. Tóth @tothgcsaba.bsky.social · 14/06/2026

Hungarian women born in 1979 had fewer than 1.6 children by age 45. Among cohorts born roughly 15 years earlier, the figure was still around 2. #demoraphy #fertility #Hungary

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Csaba G. Tóth @tothgcsaba.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

No this is a different issue. bsky.app/profile/toth...

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Csaba G. Tóth @tothgcsaba.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

In some regions of Hungary, induced abortions in 2024 reached almost 50% of the number of live births -roughly one abortion for every two babies born. #demography #fertility #Hungary

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Csaba G. Tóth @tothgcsaba.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

Demography matters. It was a pleasure to discuss the key demographic trends shaping Hungary and Central and Eastern Europe with Csaba László on Jazzy Radio. (In Hungarian.) #demography #population #Hungary jazzy.hu/adasok/magya...

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Csaba G. Tóth @tothgcsaba.bsky.social · 09/06/2026

Abortions in Hungary fell by one-fifth in Jan–Apr 2026. Abortions per 100 live births also dropped markedly, meaning a smaller share of pregnancies ended in induced abortion. But this coincided with a sharp decline in fertility and births, pointing to fewer pregnancies overall—not more babies.

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Reposted by Csaba G. Tóth

Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Oxford University @oxforddemsci.bsky.social · 26/05/2026

New research in @intjepidemiol.bsky.social examines mortality across four influenza pandemics w. data from 48 populations. It shows how strongly mortality patterns vary across countries & pandemics, challenging simple assumptions about who is most at risk. www.demography.ox.ac.uk/news/rethink...

demography.ox.ac.uk

Rethinking age and pandemic mortality

A new international study published in the International Journal of Epidemiology, co-led by RMIT researcher Dr Lauren Steele and LCDS researcher Dr Andrea Tilstra, examines how mortality risks varied ...

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Csaba G. Tóth @tothgcsaba.bsky.social · 27/05/2026

Emigration from Hungary reached a new record in 2024 and remained close to 40,000 in 2025. The number of Hungarians leaving the country in the last two years was more than double the pre-pandemic level, amounting to almost 0.5% of the total population each year. #demography #Hungary #migration

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Csaba G. Tóth @tothgcsaba.bsky.social · 24/05/2026

Hungary could lose nearly 4 million people by the end of the century if today’s extremely low fertility rate (1.3) persists. The population would shrink from 9.5 million to just 5.8 million by 2100. #demography #Hungary #fertility ourworldindata.org/population-s...

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Csaba G. Tóth @tothgcsaba.bsky.social · 21/05/2026

In 2024, 58% of children born in Vienna had a mother born abroad. For Austria as a whole, the figure was 36%. About half of foreign-born mothers came from the EU, especially from Germany and Romania. The rest came from non-EU countries (Syria, Bosnia, Turkey). #demography www.birthbarometer.at/en/

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Csaba G. Tóth @tothgcsaba.bsky.social · 20/05/2026

Foreign-born women still have higher fertility than native-born women in Austria, but the difference is narrowing. In 2024, their higher fertility of foreign-born women pushed Austria’s overall Total Fertility Rate up by about 0.1. #demography #Austria www.birthbarometer.at/en/download/...

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Csaba G. Tóth @tothgcsaba.bsky.social · 17/05/2026

The number of children that mothers give birth to is stable or even rising. But the proportion of women who have any children at all has fallen steeply in the past 15 years. #demograpy #fertility Excellent article: www.ft.com/content/fba3...

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Csaba G. Tóth @tothgcsaba.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Higher temperatures increased mortality during the warmest months, but milder cold seasons reduced mortality even more, resulting in over 900,000 fewer deaths in Europe during 2015–2024 than under the climate conditions of 1950–1979. #demography #mortality doi.org/10.1016/j.eh...

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Reposted by Csaba G. Tóth

Jonas Schöley @jschoeley.com · 29/04/2026

How many siblings does a recently born child in China likely have? @demography.bsky.social etal have estimated global kinship by age since 1950 and can answer the question (and a million others). Check out their results as interactive heatmaps on demoscapes.org. demoscapes.org/collections/...

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Csaba G. Tóth @tothgcsaba.bsky.social · 29/04/2026

Across Europe, there’s loud talk about boosting fertility. But first, the decline needs to be stopped. #demography #fertility #Hungary #Poland #EU #Germany

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Csaba G. Tóth @tothgcsaba.bsky.social · 23/04/2026

While men used to have higher fertility than women globally, this has reversed, and women have and will have a higher fertility rate than men. Excellent research: www.demogr.mpg.de/en/news_even...

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Csaba G. Tóth @tothgcsaba.bsky.social · 22/04/2026

Every now and then, it is worth revisiting past projections. Five years on, the gap between our projection and the observed population in Hungary is just 0.4% in 2026. This is a strong signal that the long-term outlook of about 8.5 million by 2050 is on track. demografia.hu/kiadvanyokon...

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Csaba G. Tóth @tothgcsaba.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

Foreign-born residents now make up 14% of the EU27 population, up from 10% a decade ago. Luxembourg is in a league of its own (52%), followed by Malta (32%), Cyprus (28%), and Ireland (23%). The lowest shares are found in post-communist countries: Poland (3%), Bulgaria (4%), and Slovakia (4%).

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Csaba G. Tóth @tothgcsaba.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

Guess which is the top one :) bsky.app/profile/toth...

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Csaba G. Tóth @tothgcsaba.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

I would not say it is unique, but the scale of the decline in Hungary (-1.6%) is among the top five. The female surplus has decreased by 0.4% across the EU as a whole since 2010.

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Csaba G. Tóth @tothgcsaba.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

The female surplus in Hungary has declined from 501K to 321K since 2010, falling from 5.0% to 3.4% of the total population. A narrowing life expectancy gap and selective migration likely play a role. #demography #population #Hungary #migration

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Csaba G. Tóth @tothgcsaba.bsky.social · 04/04/2026

Population increased in two-thirds of EU countries from 2024 to 2025. Hungary recorded the second-largest population decline (−0.5%). Overall, the EU’s population grew by 0.3%. #demography #population #EU #Poland #Hungary #Germany

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Csaba G. Tóth @tothgcsaba.bsky.social · 03/04/2026

Only 8.5% receive it. Among Hungarian households that need long-term care, just 8.5% receive professional home care services — the third-lowest rate in the EU. The EU average is 28.3%. #demography #Hungary #population

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Csaba G. Tóth @tothgcsaba.bsky.social · 14/03/2026

Despite later childbearing and the spread of IVF, the share of women aged 40–44 giving birth in Hungary has remained essentially unchanged over the past decade. #demography #population #fertility #Hungary

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