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Ton Lansink

@ton.eurosky.social
56 followers 44 following 391 posts

Retired Dutch ambassador. Served in Egypt, Iraq, India, U.S.A., Libya, Germany and Tunisia. Renegate Atlantist. Running, birdwatching. Socio-economic historian. - Fiat justitia, ne pereat mundus. - Climate and globalisation are (re)distribution issues.

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Ton Lansink @ton.eurosky.social · 2h
Profit-driven manipulators promised us long time ago that the internet would make the world a better place. Now they claim that AI will destroy humanity. My experience with AI? It’s mostly a mindless force that lacks perspective and needs constant fine-tuning to be useful. #AI #tech #framing
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Ton Lansink @ton.eurosky.social · 06/10/2026
The post-American order contains regional medium-sized powers, economic corridors and military capabilities that collectively determine the balance of power. Economic and military security and the international order are a one strategic challenge. www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/...
foreignaffairs.com
The New Red Sea Wars
Conflicts in the Middle East and the Horn of Africa have become inseparable.
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Ton Lansink @ton.eurosky.social · 03/10/2026
The analogy with “1933” is an misguided attempt to draw attention to the book. At the same time, the domestic democratic and political instability in the USoA excludes a return to predictable American international leadership. We are transitioning to a new world (dis)order.
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Ton Lansink @ton.eurosky.social · 29/09/2026
De Tweede Kamer verkiest het Plakkaat van Verlatinghe boven de Corte Verthooninge als symbool voor onze staat. Vreemde keus: de eerste leidde tot een staatkundig zoektocht die pas 21 juli 1887 tot het formele besluit - ’arrestatie’ - tot vaststelling van een formele status leidde.
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Ton Lansink @ton.eurosky.social · 23/09/2026
The #USA must negotiate, not because #Iran has won, but because continuing a #war that has failed to achieve its political objectives now poses greater strategic and economic #risks than the #concessions needed to end it. The unavoidable outcome of #rashness.
foreignaffairs.com
The Stalemate With Iran Is Not Sustainable
A diplomatic strategy to end the war.
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Ton Lansink @ton.eurosky.social · 21/09/2026
De wereld voedt #Nederland! De #landbouw kan iedere Nederlander van voldoende voedsel voorzien als we overschakelen naar een grotendeels plantaardige productie en dieet. #Vee heeft dan een bijrol voor de consumptie van oneetbare reststromen. www.wur.nl/en/news/does...
wur.nl
Does the Netherlands feed the world? Study challenges a familiar view of Dutch agriculture
The Netherlands is a major agricultural exporter. But look beyond euros to land, animal feed, calories and protein, and a different picture emerges.
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Ton Lansink @ton.eurosky.social · 17/09/2026
That's right. Poses pertinent question. Is NATO prepared for a military operation that is small enough to divide NATO politically, but large enough to undermine the credibility of Article 5? And crucially. Is the northeastern flank capable enough to hold out during the first few days?
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Ton Lansink @ton.eurosky.social · 11/09/2026
An American military base has been completely destroyed, and the Houthis are threatening to block the Red Sea. The collapse of #MAGA foreign policy and the U.S. reputation is accelerating. thehill.com/newsletters/... www.reuters.com/world/middle... mu.social/profile/ton....
thehill.com
Acting Navy secretary says Iran ‘blew the hell out of’ US base in Bahrain: Report
Welcome to The Hill’s Defense & NatSec newsletter{beacon} Defense &National Security Defense &National Security   The Big Story Acting Navy secretary says Iran &#821…
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Ton Lansink @ton.eurosky.social · 07/09/2026
De AFD vindt vooral in de voormalige DDR-deelstaten een grote weerklank. In de DDR werd, anders dan in de BRD, geen schuldgevoel gedeeld over het NAZI-verleden, want ze waren communistisch. En er is een gevoel van achterstelling ten opzichte van de meer welvarende BRD-deelstaten.
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Ton Lansink @ton.eurosky.social · 02/09/2026
A coalition of the willing has little significance unless it possess the collective capacity to protect standards through economic sanctions, financial instruments, technological controls, the defense industry, military deterrence and logistical capacity.
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Ton Lansink @ton.eurosky.social · 29/08/2026
This should end complacency. First task: a hard DependencyMap—what US capabilities can we depend on, which can we replace, and by when? Then drop taboos. #NATO where it works; #EU or coalitions where needed; new arrangements if necessary. Institutions are means. ebs.publicnow.com/view/676D1AE...
ebs.publicnow.com
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Ton Lansink @ton.eurosky.social · 20/08/2026
Gletscherschmelze in den Alpen verwandelt den Rhein in einen reinen Regenfluss. Unsere Verträge setzen nur auf Kooperation statt verbindliche Quoten. Ohne Mindestabflüsse drohen Streit um Wasser, Ausfälle in der Schifffahrt & Versalzung im Delta. #Rhein #Klimawandel #Binnenschifffahrt #Trockenheit
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Ton Lansink @ton.eurosky.social · 09/08/2026
@NathalieTocci rightly asks the fundamental question: who decides, who commands, and under what conditions do Europeans commit forces to fight together? Without clear answers, #StrategicAutonomy remains a slogan. #Europe #NATO #Defence #Deterrence www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
theguardian.com
With Russia at the door and the US backing away, Europe has to build its own ‘way of war’ | Nathalie Tocci
Even in a Europe-focused Nato 3.0, Washington would still want to call the shots. We need an insurance policy, says Guardian Europe columnist Nathalie Tocci
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Ton Lansink @ton.eurosky.social · 18/07/2026
www.youtube.com/watch?v=EWiL...
youtube.com
The History of Antisemitism: Expulsion of Jews from England
YouTube video by Museum of Jewish Heritage
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Ton Lansink @ton.eurosky.social · 14/07/2026
Verbijsterend! Dus boeren kunnen hun stikstofprobleem voor een groot deel aanpakken door de koeien niet in kooien te houden, maar buiten te laten rondlopen? Zoals dat vroeger gewoon was. Waarom gebeurt dat niet. Ze zouden vele Nederlanders er een groot plezier mee doe. Minder lege grasvelden.
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Ton Lansink @ton.eurosky.social · 12/07/2026
#Democracy forces leaders to confront criticism, dissent and inconvenient facts. #Autocracy filters them out. #Hubris fills the vacuum. #Democracy #FreeSpeech #Leadership #Authoritarianism #Geopolitics www.nytimes.com/2026/07/12/w...
nytimes.com
Trump Sought an Iran War Exit. Putin Pushed On in Ukraine. Now Both Are Stuck.
The Iran and Ukraine wars underline the common limits of military force in achieving political ends, but also the differences between a dug-in Russian president and a vacillating American one.
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Ton Lansink @ton.eurosky.social · 28/06/2026
Namelijk: de eerlijke verdeling van de #kosten voor #klimaatadaptatie. Zolang we praten over wíé er gelooft in klimaatverandering, praten we niet over hoe we zorgen dat de sterkste schouders de zwaarste lasten dragen. Wie wordt hier hiermee uit de wind gehouden?
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Ton Lansink @ton.eurosky.social · 28/06/2026
Het Nederlandse #klimaatdebat lijkt soms niet meer dan een heksenjacht op een handjevol 'klimaatontkenners'. Maar die focus is niet onschuldig. Het werkt ook als bliksemafleider om weg te blijven bij de meest urgente en confronterende discussie. #politiek #klimaat 🧵
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Ton Lansink @ton.eurosky.social · 27/06/2026
It’s no fun being right. www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
theguardian.com
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Ton Lansink @ton.eurosky.social · 25/06/2026
Dit is mis/des-informatie met mogelijk commerciële intenties. Het fenomeen in Straatsburg was geen ziekte. Er is geen verband met Chorea van Sydenham.
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Ton Lansink @ton.eurosky.social · 25/06/2026
In de psychologie heet dit ‘pulling up the ladder’. Het is het fenomeen dat iemand die zelf veel moeite heeft moeten doen om iets te bereiken met ressentiment waarneemt dat ‘opvolgers’ het ‘gemakkelijker’ hebben. Ook de vele reacties op dit bericht bevestigen moderne inzichten over de mens.
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Ton Lansink @ton.eurosky.social · 21/06/2026
“Washington’s “peace agreement” has come at a high price. The memorandum of understanding between the #USA and #Iran to end the war is a victory for Iran’s war strategy. So far, it has only resolved problems that were caused by the war in the first place.” www.swp-berlin.org/en/publicati...
swp-berlin.org
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Reposted by Ton Lansink
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) @swp-berlin.org · 19/06/2026
Die Absichtserklärung der USA & Irans, den Krieg zu beenden, ist ein Erfolg der iranischen Kriegsstrategie. Teheran erhält wirtschaftliche Erleichterungen, während zentrale Fragen des Atomprogramms ungeklärt bleiben, meint Azadeh Zamirirad @swp-mea.bsky.social. www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
swp-berlin.org
Von Teheran ausmanövriert – Washingtons »Friedensvereinbarung« ist teuer erkauft
Die Absichtserklärung der USA und Irans, den Krieg zu beenden, ist ein Erfolg der iranischen Kriegsstrategie. Bislang wurden dadurch nur...
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Ton Lansink @ton.eurosky.social · 19/06/2026
#Trump wanted to destroy #Iran’s nuclear program, missile arsenal, proxy network and force “unconditional surrender.” Iran keeps its regime, missiles, proxies and strengthened its negotiating position. How on earth did #U.S. #foreignpolicy reach this absolute peak of incompetence.
csmonitor.com
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Ton Lansink @ton.eurosky.social · 18/06/2026
illegale #visserij dreigt de herstelcapaciteit van de oceanen te vernietigen. Goed daarom dat landen gaan samenwerken om deze criminaliteit te bestrijden. België en Frankrijk behoren tot de initiatiefnemers. Jammer dat #Nederland niet meedeed. allafrica.com/stories/2026...
allafrica.com
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Ton Lansink @ton.eurosky.social · 17/06/2026
To govern is to look ahead. www.ibtimes.com/trump-says-g...
ibtimes.com
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Ton Lansink @ton.eurosky.social · 17/06/2026
A costly #Iranwar seems to have ended before diplomacy in 2003 began — with negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program. The main difference is that thousands have died, tens of billions have been spent, the Middle East is less stable than before and the Western negotiating strength undermined.
english.alarabiya.net
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Ton Lansink @ton.eurosky.social · 17/06/2026
Ik ken geen historische voorbeelden van technologische vernieuwingen die voor altijd zijn afgezworen, wel van vernieuwingen waar de mens mee leerde omgaan en reguleerde.
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Ton Lansink @ton.eurosky.social · 16/06/2026
The #international #political #order is shifting not only from #unipolarity to #multipolarity, but also from territorial #power to infrastructural power. The question is no longer simply which state is the strongest, but which state controls the critical ecosystems on which other states depend.
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Ton Lansink @ton.eurosky.social · 16/06/2026
The article illustrates the erosion of the postwar international #political #order. International #sanctions are driven by power. Without the #US as enforcer, the formal sanctions regimes may continue to exist, but their effectiveness declines sharply. www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe...
csmonitor.com
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Ton Lansink @ton.eurosky.social · 15/06/2026
The #Iran War has depleted #U.S. ammunition stocks and diplomatic capital. The interim outcome closely resembles the pre-war situation, albeit with greater Iranian leverage. The most significant outcome: the accelerated erosion of U.S. dominance over the international order.
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Ton Lansink @ton.eurosky.social · 09/06/2026
Oud nieuws. Het product was tot 27/5 te koop.
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Ton Lansink @ton.eurosky.social · 09/06/2026
Global maritime #commons can no longer be maintained. #Europe is exceptionally dependent on open sea lanes. The #U.S. will become selective in its engagement. A strategic vacuum Europe cannot fill on its own. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
foreignaffairs.com
How America Lost Command of the Commons
The oceans may soon be tolled.
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Ton Lansink @ton.eurosky.social · 08/06/2026
#Varoufakis noemt de #NAVO als hoofdobstakel voor Europese autonomie. Een gezocht en totaal ongeloofwaardig argument voor zijn bekende politieke voorkeur. De grootste belemmering is de afwezigheid van politieke cohesie in #Europa. www.volkskrant.nl/columns-opin...
volkskrant.nl
Opinie: Europa moet de Navo afschaffen, dat is in het eigen belang van continent
Er gaan steeds meer stemmen op voor een Europese Defensie Unie, die zou moeten bestaan uit een coalitie van bereidwilligen. Maar zolang de Navo bestaat, is een levensvatbaar Europees alternatief onmog...
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Ton Lansink @ton.eurosky.social · 06/06/2026
@enisodaci.bsky.social We leven in een samenleving gebouwd op een verouderd mythisch mensbeeld. Het maakt ons bijziend. أنسون, de mens, deels rationeel, sterk sociaal, gevoelig voor identiteit, emotioneel gestuurd, moreel tribaal, cognitief beperkt maar ook uitzonderlijk coöperatief مكتوب و ما يصير
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Ton Lansink @ton.eurosky.social · 29/05/2026
Het is een oude statistische truc: niet vergelijkbare metingen agregeren tot je de gewenste uitkomst hebt en hopen dat niemand aan Simpsons paradox denkt.
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Ton Lansink @ton.eurosky.social · 28/05/2026
When military escalation does not produce a credible political outcome, power shifts to the party that can sustain the economic and political costs for the longest period of time. #Iran #US #Hormuz
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Ton Lansink @ton.eurosky.social · 28/05/2026
10/10 Europe still possesses enormous economic and technological resources. But without credible political organization of power, those resources will not be sufficient to sustain European security in an era of fragmentation and strategic uncertainty. #Europe #SecurityPolicy
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Ton Lansink @ton.eurosky.social · 28/05/2026
9/10 The most likely European outcome is therefore not a fully integrated defence system, but a network of coalitions of the willing: smaller groups of states ready to assume operational responsibility. #JEF #EuropeanSecurity
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Ton Lansink @ton.eurosky.social · 28/05/2026
8/10 Alliances no longer automatically shield states from coercion. They can themselves become channels of coercion. This now applies to trade, technology, energy and even security guarantees. #StrategicAutonomy #Transatlantic
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Ton Lansink @ton.eurosky.social · 28/05/2026
7/10 The international order is visibly shifting from a rules-based system to a deals-based system. Security guarantees, trade relations and technology dependencies are increasingly used as instruments of leverage. #Geoeconomics #InternationalOrder
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Ton Lansink @ton.eurosky.social · 28/05/2026
6/10 Modern power is increasingly shaped not by the number of tanks, but by enabling systems: * satellites * cyber * ISR * logistics * integrated command structures This is exactly where Europe remains dependent. #Military #Technology
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Ton Lansink @ton.eurosky.social · 28/05/2026
5/10 Many European discussions about “strategic autonomy” remain overly technical. More spending, more production and more EU funds are necessary, but they do not answer the central question: who is willing to bear real political and military risk? #EU #Defence
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Ton Lansink @ton.eurosky.social · 28/05/2026
4/10 Deterrence does not work through nuclear weapons alone. It requires credible conventional involvement from the very first hours of a conflict. That is precisely where Europe’s dependence on the US becomes visible. #Defense #Europ
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Ton Lansink @ton.eurosky.social · 28/05/2026
3/10 US troop reductions in Europe are therefore more than operational adjustments. They directly affect the credibility of deterrence at every level of escalation. #Russia #NATO #Security
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Ton Lansink @ton.eurosky.social · 28/05/2026
The United States remains militarily dominant, especially in: * ISR * logistics * targeting * command & control * deep strike capabilities But the automatic political willingness to use that power for Europe is weakening. #NATO #Deterrence
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Ton Lansink @ton.eurosky.social · 28/05/2026
1/10 Europe is not facing merely a security crisis, but a crisis of enforcement. The problem is no longer the absence of rules, treaties or institutions. The problem is declining political willingness to enforce them. #Europe #NATO #Geopolitics
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Ton Lansink @ton.eurosky.social · 25/05/2026
Yes, rules, forums, and coalitions are insufficient without material power and political enforcement. But choice is not predetermined. The real question is whether #Europe can build a “coalition of the willing” to become less dependent on American caprice. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
foreignaffairs.com
The Middle Power Delusion
Not choosing is not an option.
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Ton Lansink @ton.eurosky.social · 12/05/2026
The international order does not lack rules, it lacks enforcement. It’s collapsing because of overstretched enforcement, fractured coalitions and a West that can’t align strategy. #Geopolitics #WorldOrder #RuleBasedOrder #PowerPolitics #ForeignPolicy #StrategicFailure #West #GlobalSecurity #NATO #EU
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Reposted by Ton Lansink
Mathijs Bouman @mathijsbouman.nl · 10/05/2026
Noem bommen geen vuurwerk
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