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Tom Calver

@tomcalver.bsky.social
28K followers 1.5K following 430 posts

Data Editor, @thetimes.com 🇬🇧 How is Britain doing? 👉 thetimes.com/data 🔗 www.thetimes.com/profile/tom-calver 📧 thomas.calver@the-times.co.uk

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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · 28/06/2026
Even as oil prices settle again, persistently-high inflation, unemployment and interest rates mean we may be on track for a second parliament in which living standards do not grow, according to modelling by @jrf_uk . More in my column www.thetimes.com/article/79f4... 2/2
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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · 28/06/2026
NEW: the Iran war may have cost households nearly £1,000 a year by 2029 – and wiped out any gains in living standards for this parliament! Why is Britain so bad at withstanding energy shocks? 1/2
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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · 24/05/2026
Are supermarkets really ripping us off on the price of milk? www.thetimes.com/article/f304...
thetimes.com
Are supermarkets really ripping us off on the price of milk?
Labour’s abortive idea to cap grocery prices relied on the assumption of profiteering
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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · 24/05/2026
Two: when milk prices did increase, between 2020 and 2022, it was not because of soaring profits. The biggest contributors: farming costs, overheads, and, most significantly, labour! The idea that prices rise because of profiteering is for the birds 3/3
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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · 24/05/2026
One: milk prices might as well be state-controlled, such is the psychological power of supermarket price wars. Two pints of semi-skimmed milk at Tesco? £1.20. Ocado? £1.20. Asda, Morrisons, Aldi? £1.20 In fact, two pints at Tesco have been £1.20 since 2023! 2/3
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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · 24/05/2026
Amid all the talk of freezing the price of groceries, I looked at what goes into the cost of a pint of milk. Two things jump out... 1/3
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John Peters @johnthejack.bsky.social · 17/05/2026
Voters like the idea of cutting welfare in principle, but singling out an undeserving group — eg stripping winter fuel payments from pensioners, or reducing payments for those unable realistically to work — quickly becomes unconscionable (£) www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/... By @tomcalver.bsky.social
thetimes.com
Labour’s Achilles’ heel: has welfare doomed Keir Starmer?
When the party’s history of rebellion on benefits collided with a low-growth, high-debt economy, a leadership crisis was quick to follow
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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
Finally: the idea that individual resident docs have experienced pay stagnation is daft. Resident docs have the best pay progression around. A trainee in 2017 on £27k base could be on £50k core training by 2021, then £110k consultant by 2025! More: www.thetimes.com/article/895f...
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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
Fourth: compared with several other benchmarks, resident doctors are not badly paid. Trainee docs in England are paid more than in Ireland and New Zealand. And when you include pension contributions, their total remuneration is more than other equivalent professions. 5/6
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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
Third: 2008 was a high point in resident doctor pay. Compared with the 1990s, early 2000s and 2010s, junior doctors are relatively well paid. 4/6
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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
Second: the union still persists in using the retail prices index. Using RPI: pay has fallen 21%. Using CPI: pay has fallen 6%. Using CPIH: pay has fallen 4%. There are no sensible use cases for RPI. It overstates inflation. 3/6
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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
First: resident doctors want pay restoration to 2008 levels. Except in some ways, they’ve already achieved it: their base pay is the highest it’s ever been. They are only down at all when we consider the extra hours that were done on top as part of the 2002-2016 contract 2/6
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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
Are resident doctors still underpaid? The BMA’s case for industrial action is undermined by the way the union uses data. 1/6 www.thetimes.com/article/895f...
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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · 05/04/2026
Every pensioner deserves a "decent" retirement. But the agreement of the welfare state isn't universal basic income. It has always been to provide a "basic foundation" so that "individuals may build freely upon it". More: 🔗 www.thetimes.com/article/152d...
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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · 05/04/2026
The state pension is a benefit. You pay NI for the entitlement to access it, but the cash you get back does not come from your own contributions. Be thankful that it does not: the typical 60-year-old has paid in £134k in NI, but will get back £222k in SP payments. 4/5
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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · 05/04/2026
Thanks to private pensions, if you deduct housing costs and adjust for family sizes, pensioner households earn practically the same as working-age households. Plus, if we want to reduce pensioner poverty, raising the state pension is a very ineffective way of doing it 3/5
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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · 05/04/2026
Two: now it is enshrined, no politician will dare say whether the state pension is high *enough* The new state pension is a third of earnings, high by historic standards Compared to Europe, our provision is low. But just 12% are solely reliant on it, falling to 4% in 2063 2/5
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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · 05/04/2026
There are two big problems with the triple lock One: it makes future spending impossible to predict. If we keep it, pension spending by 2050 could be a just a little higher than it is now. Or, if we have anything like recent volatility, it could be tens of billions higher. 1/5
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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 29/03/2026
1/ Good explainer in today’s Sunday Times from @tomcalver.bsky.social on why renewables are not cheap. I’d add this: The wholesale market price of electricity is the *short-run* marginal cost. When renewables dominate, it will often be close to zero.
thetimes.com
Why is the rush into renewable energy not lowering our bills?
Wind power is hitting records, yet bills are set to rise. From the ‘dark calm’ to a £70bn grid overhaul, here is why green energy costs a premium
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John Peters @johnthejack.bsky.social · 22/03/2026
The Greens are doing well in urban areas with insufficient incomes and poor access to housing. They have gained traction among the growing cohort who have gone to university and moved to the city but are struggling to keep up. (£) www.thetimes.com/comment/colu... By @tomcalver.bsky.social
thetimes.com
The Green Party is soaring in the polls. Who are its supporters?
While Reform leads among men, some pollsters now have the Greens closing on first place among women
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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · 22/03/2026
Demographically, Green and Reform voters could not be more different. But they do share a nihilism that expresses in different ways Reform voters believe things were better in the past. For the Greens, things were never good to begin with. 2/2 Column: www.thetimes.com/article/d6f7...
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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · 22/03/2026
Green support is rising under Zack Polanski. Who are its new voters? The party's new voter base is younger, student-y, more female, and less financially comfortable than their 2024 voters. They are the heirs of Corbynism: 39% of current supporters backed Labour in 2019 1/2
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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · 15/03/2026
By 2030, our prices will be slightly more decoupled from gas prices than they are now. But Britain still desperately needs a proper gas strategy for when it's not windy or sunny. More in my column www.thetimes.com/article/0227...
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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · 15/03/2026
Having more renewables will mean we turn to gas less frequently. But it will still provide marginal support when there's no wind or sun. This is what experts think a typical winter week will look like in 2030. There will still be lots of times when gas sets the price. 3/4
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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · 15/03/2026
Britain, like many countries, uses a merit order system. Cheap solar, wind and nuclear are used first. When you need more, you turn to gas. In 2021, gas set the price of electricity 97% of the time. But Britain imports half of it, and has just 12 days' storage capacity! 2/4
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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · 15/03/2026
Will the rush to net zero save us from future energy price shocks? Since 2004, the UK has engaged in a risky experiment: generating less electricity. The bet is that enough wind will reverse that by 2030. But gas – overtaxed and neglected – will still matter www.thetimes.com/article/0227...
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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · 08/03/2026
Typo* - the other way round, of course
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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · 08/03/2026
Britain's top unis are thriving – so much so that UK-born graduates are increasingly competing with international students for places. But the lower end is rapidly expanding, and dragging down the average graduate premium. 4/4 More in my column www.thetimes.com/article/983b...
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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · 08/03/2026
We cannot know for certain whether students going to post-1992 institutions would be better off not going to uni at all until the DfE releases the full LEO salary database. But it is only fair to question why former polys are expending low-value courses at such a rapid pace 3/4
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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · 08/03/2026
This gap exists even when we partially adjust for A-level grades. Students with BBB at post-92 unis earn more than those with AAA at pre-92 institutions 2/4
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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · 08/03/2026
This week's column: choose your university wisely Post-1992 providers have been rapidly expanding business, law and computing courses. Yet the returns for students 5 years after graduating from these courses have, to date, been woeful 1/4
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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · 01/03/2026
The death of the housing ladder The average income of a first-time buyer is £61k. But the average second or third-time buyer is earning £91k! Poor price growth in starter homes, plus rising moving costs, is trapping Brits in the first homes they buy www.thetimes.com/article/9302...
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John Peters @johnthejack.bsky.social · 22/02/2026
Scrapping the Equality Act would not conjure up better schools in coastal towns, or new graduate jobs in post-industrial areas. The real divide is between thriving places and surviving ones, which is a far more expensive problem to fix. (£) www.thetimes.com/comment/colu... By @tomcalver.bsky.social
thetimes.com
Is class a bigger obstacle to social mobility than race?
As class and race collide in the debate over social mobility, new data suggests socioeconomic background is now the primary driver of inequality
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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · 15/02/2026
The irony is “RPI + 3%” was meant to be progressive, a way of making sure high earners didn't pay their loan back too quickly Yet freezing the bands is anything but. More in my column www.thetimes.com/article/a660...
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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · 15/02/2026
So the Treasury pulls a lever. Every time it looks like future graduates won't pay enough back, it freezes repayment thresholds and the rate at which higher interest kicks in. Had these risen with wages – as was intended – these thresholds would be £38k and £70k by 2028 3/4
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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · 15/02/2026
Treasury modelling had assumed post-2012 graduates would continue to enjoy the wage premiums that pre-2012 graduates enjoyed. This didn't happen. Grad wages were lower, and so were repayments. By 2021, the government expected back just 46p of every £1 repaid. 2/4
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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · 15/02/2026
Here's the real reason the government keeps freezing the student loan threshold The part of the loan that's repaid is classed as an asset on Treasury spreadsheets. But when plan 2 student loans started to be repaid, the percentage received back was less than expected... 1/4
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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
bsky.app/profile/tomc...
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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
What happens if Britain’s population starts shrinking - which could happen as soon as 2029? Really enjoyed recording this edition of @thetimes.com's story podcast podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/w...
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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · 08/02/2026
An alt measure that looks at lack of access to 14 amenities (a warm house, three meals a day) found 2m children living in “deep material poverty”. Yet nearly half of them would not have been covered by the official poverty measure! More in my column www.thetimes.com/article/fb88...
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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · 08/02/2026
Dodgy data aside, is an income-based measure of poverty still fit for purpose? According to DWP data, 315,000 children living in relative poverty - defined as earning 60% of average income, adjusting for household size - were in households with more than £10k in savings! 3/4
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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · 08/02/2026
The DWP has known this for years and will finally link results of the Family Resources Survey to administrative records from next month The difference is hard to predict, but a previous estimate suggests child poverty could be 550,000 lower than previously thought 2/4
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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · 08/02/2026
Is the UK’s official child poverty measure about to be revised downwards? The survey used by the DWP to measure poverty misses an astonishing £43bn of benefits income a year! 1/4
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Georgina Sturge @georginasturge.bsky.social · 08/02/2026
Great article by @tomcalver.bsky.social on why income is often a poor indicator of whether someone is in poverty. Income is under-reported in the main survey used for poverty stats. A correction to that could soon shrink our official poverty figures overnight. www.thetimes.com/article/fb88...
thetimes.com
Is child poverty really as widespread as official figures show?
Labour has staked its credibility on cutting it, so it’s worth straightening out the data
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John Peters @johnthejack.bsky.social · 25/01/2026
None of this is an argument for mass sackings or football manager turnover rates. Stability and institutional memory are important. But we accept a system in which officials are much more likely to die than be sacked for weak performance (£) www.thetimes.com/comment/colu... By @tomcalver.bsky.social
thetimes.com
How difficult is it to get sacked from a civil service job?
Whitehall is widely criticised as underperforming and oversized — yet just 0.76 per cent of civil servants were dismissed or made redundant in 2024-25
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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · 18/01/2026
This week's column: how can Scotland afford tax cuts? Its tax system may be more progressive the than rest of UK's. But the answer is not because it has cracked the code of Scandinavian-style democracy: it is because England pays the difference www.thetimes.com/article/ede4...
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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · 04/01/2026
In short, we have traded one form of drudgery for another: less toil, but more distraction. More in my column, free to read: www.thetimes.com/article/d87c... 3/3
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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · 04/01/2026
One reason is that we're increasingly having to multitask. Time use surveys show nearly half of all young adults are on their phone when they say they are "relaxing" Another is that key activities have become less enjoyable. Work is less fun than it was 40 years ago! 2/3
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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · 04/01/2026
This week's column is about how we spend our most valuable asset of all: time Life has become less obviously strenuous. For women, unpaid work is being replaced with paid work. Men enage in more leisure than ever. Both sexes sleep more. Why, then, does life feel rushed? 1/3
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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · 28/12/2025
Today’s songs are designed to narrate to be listened to alone, narrating our immediate physical desires. But there is an interesting counter trend in the data… More in my column (free link) 🔗 www.thetimes.com/article/c060...
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