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Tom Boyles

@tomboylesid.bsky.social
1.2K followers 385 following 417 posts

ID clinician scientist. AHD, TB, diagnostics. Runner, father, husband

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Tom Boyles @tomboylesid.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
What a company claims 99% accuracy of a test, what does that actually mean? thediagnosticdetective.substack.com/p/what-does-...
thediagnosticdetective.substack.com
What does 99% accurate actually mean?
Sometimes a highly accurate test can be completely useless
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Tom Boyles @tomboylesid.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
#phagesky #phage I'd like to connect with anyone who can advise on how I might set up a Phage laboratory in Johannesburg, South Africa
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Tom Boyles @tomboylesid.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
The definition of biological sex is often considered controversial. In reality it's just complicated. thediagnosticdetective.substack.com/p/how-should...
thediagnosticdetective.substack.com
How Should We Define Biological Sex?
Before beginning, let me be clear what this article is not about.
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Tom Boyles @tomboylesid.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
This seems extraordinary. AI designs a phage genome, they synthesise the genome and put it inside a bacteria and out pops a fully functioning phage. Incredible.
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Tom Boyles @tomboylesid.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Whoopee!
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Tom Boyles @tomboylesid.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Nathan Confas has confirmed that he has been suspended by his university.
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Tom Boyles @tomboylesid.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
My take on when we should or should not make healthcare decisions without an RCT. thediagnosticdetective.substack.com/p/when-shoul...
thediagnosticdetective.substack.com
When should we act without RCT level evidence?
Whether it's a parachute,a cigarette, a flu medication or an air filter, RCTs have a niche role in answering healthcare questions.
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Tom Boyles @tomboylesid.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
Stop all the clocks, cut off the telephone....
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Tom Boyles @tomboylesid.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Should preventative cardiologists pay more attention to risk compensation? I think so. thediagnosticdetective.substack.com/p/imagine-th...
thediagnosticdetective.substack.com
Imagine There Are No Statins. It’s Easy if You Try.
Would a world with or without statins for primary prevention be healthier?
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Tom Boyles @tomboylesid.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Asking for a friend. Are we going to just assume these associations are causative, or actually randomise patients? NEWS2 versus shock status to stratify antibiotic urgency in patients with suspected sepsis: a retrospective, multicentre cohort study www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
thelancet.com
NEWS2 versus shock status to stratify antibiotic urgency in patients with suspected sepsis: a retrospective, multicentre cohort study
The NICE-defined high-risk NEWS2 category (scores ≥7) identified patients in whom each additional hour to antibiotic administration was associated with increased mortality, including many without shoc...
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Tom Boyles @tomboylesid.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
When your model predicts probabilities, don't forget about calibration. open.substack.com/pub/thediagn...
open.substack.com
We need to talk about calibration
Why a high AUROC does not necessarily mean a diagnostic model is useful
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Tom Boyles @tomboylesid.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
Efavirenz based regimens do the same thing. #ADVANCEtrial
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Tom Boyles @tomboylesid.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
#Tuberculosis I thought this was interesting. Presumably the next step would be stopping therapy in selected patients and following for relapse. www.ijidonline.com/article/S120...
ijidonline.com
Comparative assessment of host transcriptomic- and bacteriological- markers for monitoring treatment response among active tuberculosis patients: a longitudinal study
Tuberculosis (TB) remains one of the world’s most pressing public health challenges, with millions of new cases (10.7 million) and deaths (1.23 million) reported annually [1]. Despite advances in diag...
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Tom Boyles @tomboylesid.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
I'm in favour of Social Care Insurance. 5% levy on any estate (not first 100k) to insure against catestrophic costs of social care. Which can be a 100% levy on estates above 23k for some. I'd sign up for that. #Andyburnham
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Tom Boyles @tomboylesid.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
Reinforces the rule 'any 2 drug combination in suppressed patients will be non-inferior to control'. Phase 3 Trial of Weekly Oral Islatravir–Lenacapavir for HIV-1 Treatment | New England Journal of Medicine www.nejm.org/doi/full/10....
nejm.org
Phase 3 Trial of Weekly Oral Islatravir–Lenacapavir for HIV-1 Treatment | NEJM
Once-daily, single-tablet regimens have transformed care for persons living with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1); however, challenges to adherence continue to limit effective treatment....
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Tom Boyles @tomboylesid.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Here we argue that seriously ill adults with AHD in Africa would likely benefit from empiric anti-tuberculous therapy and that an RCT powered for mortality is required. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... #Tuberculosis
sciencedirect.com
Empiric tuberculosis treatment in hospitalised adults with advanced HIV disease in Africa: applying the therapeutic threshold to clinical practice
Hospitalised adults with advanced HIV disease in sub-Saharan Africa experience high mortality, with tuberculosis, often disseminated and undiagnosed, …
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Tom Boyles @tomboylesid.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Can I safely assume that the joke, "l'm not homophobic, I liked the Odyssey" has been doing the rounds lately?
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Tom Boyles @tomboylesid.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
I've got a lot in common with @garyseconomics.bsky.social . We both think inequality is a major problem and tax policy might help. And neither of us have a PhD in economics. The idea that a wealth tax is a silver bullet is absurd and naive. Embrace the complexity of tax policy and ask real experts.
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Tom Boyles @tomboylesid.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
The Youden index doesn't seem fit for purpose. Here I propose an alternative way of presenting diagnostic accuracy studies of ordinal results. Novel? old hat? Let me know. open.substack.com/pub/thediagn...
open.substack.com
When“Positive”and“Negative”Aren’t Enough
Proposing a more clinically useful way to present diagnostic-accuracy studies of tests that produce a score
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Tom Boyles @tomboylesid.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
I think it's vital to perform an ethical natural history study of people with these bugs to see if they cause disease or not. Unethical to use household contacts as they should all get TPT. Need to find a cohort elsewhere, with and without these bugs and follow them untreated.
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Tom Boyles @tomboylesid.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
How should we communicate test accuracy to patients? I think the way #Cochrane do it is very hard for patients to understand and suggest an alternative. Comments welcome. thediagnosticdetective.substack.com/p/how-should...
thediagnosticdetective.substack.com
How should we communicate test accuracy to patients?
Why sensitivity and specificity don’t answer the questions patients ask
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Tom Boyles @tomboylesid.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
An excellent appraisal of the most up to date evidence in Staph Aureus Bacteraemia led by Anna Goodman. academic.oup.com/jac/article/...
academic.oup.com
A review of the randomized clinical trial results from the Staphylococcus aureus network adaptive platform (SNAP) meticillin-susceptible (MSSA) and penicillin-susceptible (PSSA) domains and CloCeBa
Abstract. Current guidelines for the management of meticillin-susceptible Staphyloccocus aureus bloodstream infection/bacteraemia (SAB) recommend intraveno
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Tom Boyles @tomboylesid.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Could a Decision Leaf Plot be a new way of presenting diagnostic accuracy studies- please let me know either way. open.substack.com/pub/thediagn...
open.substack.com
Leaf plots meet decision thresholds
How a simple addition to an overlooked Bayesian graph can transform it into a clinical decision tool
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Reposted by Tom Boyles
@SAHIVSoc @sahivsoc.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
Join us for a CME webinar on NNRTIs in the integrase era As HIV treatment continues to advance, understanding where NNRTIs fit into current clinical practice remains important Register: tinyurl.com/4vdy5rzm | tinyurl.com/mryr9thr #HIVTreatment #HIVCare
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Tom Boyles @tomboylesid.bsky.social · 20/06/2026
The recent #NEJM paper on MiniDoc was lacking detail. This is how I would have presented the study. open.substack.com/pub/thediagn...
open.substack.com
How I Would Have Presented the Pluslife TB Paper
Reframing a landmark TB diagnostic study through Bayes' theorem and clinical decision-making
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Tom Boyles @tomboylesid.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
Excellent use of Bayesian statistics in the SNAP trial. 89% probability of superiority is so much more intuitive than p<0.05. www.nejm.org/doi/full/10....
nejm.org
Cefazolin for Methicillin-Susceptible Staphylococcus aureus Bacteremia | NEJM
Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia is associated with high mortality. Whether cefazolin or an antistaphylococcal penicillin should be preferred for the treatment of methicillin-susceptible S. aureus ...
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Tom Boyles @tomboylesid.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
Proud to be a part of this terrific study. Congratulations to all involved.
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Tom Boyles @tomboylesid.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
@thenewsagents.co.uk Stopping all immigration to prevent crimes by immigrants (which I think is what the far right want) is akin to grounding all planes permanently to stop plane crashed.
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Tom Boyles @tomboylesid.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
This is excellent work once again. Well done Rachel and the rest of the team.
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Reposted by Tom Boyles
IAS - the International AIDS Society @iasociety.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
#SouthAfrica’s rollout of #lenacapavir starts today. The twice-yearly long-acting injectable for #HIV prevention will be introduced at 360 government facilities nationwide, expanding prevention choice and marking an important step forward for the country’s HIV response. #RethinkRebuildRise
sanews.gov.za
Launch of Lenacapavir a game-changer
It is often said that health is wealth and South Africa’s launch of the game
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Tom Boyles @tomboylesid.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
Here I look at the missing information in the NEJM article about MiniDoc #tuberculosis thediagnosticdetective.substack.com/p/meeting-th...
thediagnosticdetective.substack.com
Meeting the Target, Missing the Point
Why sensitivity and specificity don't tell clinicians what they need to know
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Tom Boyles @tomboylesid.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
A successful 4 month regimen with lots of cavitation is interesting. But why are drug companies so terrified of including real life HIV patients (CD4<350)? Has to be one regimen for all to be practical in low resource settings. www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
thelancet.com
Efficacy and safety of a 4-month quabodepistat, delamanid, and bedaquiline regimen for drug-susceptible pulmonary tuberculosis: a multicentre, open-label, randomised, proof-of-concept, non-inferiority...
In this proof-of-concept study, 4 months of DBQ showed a promising end-of-treatment non-inferiority signal versus 6 months of RHEZ and was generally well tolerated. Our results support further studies...
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Tom Boyles @tomboylesid.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
The Diagnostic Detective attempts to explain why study design is the biggest enemy of RCTs of diagnostic tests open.substack.com/pub/thediagn...
open.substack.com
Why Randomised Trials of Diagnostic Tests (almost) never show benefit to patients - Part 2
Better tests don’t necessarily improve outcomes. The problem isn’t the technology — it’s who we test, and when.
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Tom Boyles @tomboylesid.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
Ever notices that RCTs of 'transformative' diagnostic tests almost never show benefit to patients. In Part 1 of 2, the Diagnostic Detective makes this case. In Part 2, I will attempt to explain why. open.substack.com/pub/thediagn...
open.substack.com
Why Do Randomised Trials of Diagnostic Tests (Almost) Never Show Benefit to Patients?
Part 1 of 2- they really do hardly ever show benefit
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Tom Boyles @tomboylesid.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
A great failure of PEPFAR (among many successes) was not insisting on an RCT of switching vs not switching to DTG in a large cohort of African patients. Now we are stuck with observational evidence on the side-effects of INSTIs www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
thelancet.com
Metabolic syndrome and cardiovascular risk on INSTIs
Treatment regimens containing integrase strand-transfer inhibitors (INSTIs) are taken lifelong by most people with HIV. The potency, tolerability, and high resistance barrier of INSTIs make them the t...
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Tom Boyles @tomboylesid.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
The commonest cause of sepsis in adults with advanced HIV disease in Africa didn't even get a mention! @thelancet.com #tuberculosis Sepsis - The Lancet www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
thelancet.com
Sepsis
Sepsis is defined as a dysregulated host response to infection that leads to life-threatening organ dysfunction. The infectious insult triggers a dysregulated immune response that variably activates a...
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Reposted by Tom Boyles
@SAHIVSoc @sahivsoc.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
We're pleased to announce our 2026 guideline update to induction treatment for cryptococcal meningitis! sahivsoc.org/Files/SAHCS%... @neleshg.bsky.social @tomboylesid.bsky.social #HIV #CryptococcalMeningitis
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Tom Boyles @tomboylesid.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
There is something seductive about single blood tests for multiple diseases. The diagnostic detective looks at the Galleri test and the Bayesian effect of the NHS-Galleri trial. #grail thediagnosticdetective.substack.com/p/the-seduct...
thediagnosticdetective.substack.com
The Seductive Prior
The Diagnostic Detective revisits the NHS-Galleri trial, Bayesian belief, and the mathematics of disappointment
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Tom Boyles @tomboylesid.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
DO NOT be tempted to extrapolate these finding to low resource settings. Many aspects of this trial (eg incentives) are not achievable for us. Cabotegravir plus Rilpivirine for Persons with HIV and Adherence Challenges | New England Journal of Medicine www.nejm.org/doi/full/10....
nejm.org
Cabotegravir plus Rilpivirine for Persons with HIV and Adherence Challenges | NEJM
Randomized trials of long-acting injectable antiretroviral therapy (ART) in persons with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) who face challenges with adherence to oral medication are lacking. We con...
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Tom Boyles @tomboylesid.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
The Diagnostic Detective looks at Apple Watch hypertension alerts. Spoiler- they are poorly studied and likely add little #Applewatch open.substack.com/pub/thediagn...
open.substack.com
An Apple a day- does what exactly?
Can Apple Smartwatches screen for hypertension?
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Tom Boyles @tomboylesid.bsky.social · 09/01/2026
The one where I argue that Smartwatches in healthcare should be seen as screening tests and held to the same standard of evidence open.substack.com/pub/thediagn...
open.substack.com
Are Smartwatches in healthcare a panacea or a Pandora's box?
Wearable tech a screening rather than diagnosis
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Tom Boyles @tomboylesid.bsky.social · 06/01/2026
PSA testing for individuals vs populations. The medical equivalent of general relativity meets quantum mechanics. It all depends on your perspective. open.substack.com/pub/thediagn...
open.substack.com
Two Scotsmen and the Prostate Cancer Screening Paradox
The one about two Scotsmen, one disease, and two very different outcomes.
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Tom Boyles @tomboylesid.bsky.social · 11/12/2025
Vaginal microbiome testing- is it useful in the absence of symptoms? The Diagnostic Detective investigates open.substack.com/pub/thediagn...
open.substack.com
Should Healthy Women Have Their Vaginal Microbiome Tested?
The one where microbiome science actually meets medicine, and where it still doesn’t
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Tom Boyles @tomboylesid.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
Should healthy people test their gut microbiome? Or is it just an expensive mirror of what we already know? The Diagnostic Detective investigates. open.substack.com/pub/thediagn...
open.substack.com
Should healthy people have their gut microbiome tested?
The one where trillions of microbes become celebrities
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Reposted by Tom Boyles
@SAHIVSoc @sahivsoc.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
In South Africa, where lenacapavir introduction is anticipated in early 2026, the Wits RHI study will provide the Department of Health with the evidence they need to adapt quickly and in real time as they integrate lenacapavir into existing HIV prevention programs unitaid.org/news-blog/le...
unitaid.org
Lenacapavir use kicks off in South Africa and Brazil through Unitaid partnership with Wits RHI and Fiocruz - Unitaid
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Tom Boyles @tomboylesid.bsky.social · 25/11/2025
Why don't we lose weight the way we expect when exercising- The Diagnostic Detective investigates open.substack.com/pub/thediagn...
open.substack.com
The Case of the Vanishing Calorie Deficit
Exercise Is Great—So Why Doesn’t It Move the Scale like it Should?
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Tom Boyles @tomboylesid.bsky.social · 17/11/2025
Do Continuous Glucose Monitors make healthy people even more healthy. Or is it another fad? The Diagnostic Detective investigates open.substack.com/pub/thediagn...
open.substack.com
Continuous Glucose Monitors for Wellness
Data Driven or a Test Looking for an Indication?
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Tom Boyles @tomboylesid.bsky.social · 12/11/2025
Publication of our protocol to test the safety of valganciclovir in patients with advanced HIV, CMV viraemia and no end organ disease. First Patient First Visit is imminent. pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC...
pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
Valganciclovir for cytomegalovirus viraemia in advanced HIV disease: a phase 2b randomized placebo-controlled trial of valganciclovir for cytomegalovirus viraemia in adults and adolescents with advanced HIV disease
Mortality among adults hospitalized with advanced HIV disease (AHD; CD4 <200 cells μl−1 or a WHO stage 3 or 4 disease) is >20%; there is an urgent need to evaluate strategies to reduce mortality within this extremely high-risk group. Approximately ...
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Tom Boyles @tomboylesid.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
Does it help healthy people to take Vitamin D supplements? The Diagnostic Detective takes a look. open.substack.com/pub/thediagn...
open.substack.com
Should Healthy People take Vitamin D supplements?
Who Really Needs the Sunshine Pill?
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Tom Boyles @tomboylesid.bsky.social · 07/11/2025
@jaynesutherlandtb.bsky.social Nice study but... I'd rather you chose a threshold with NPV of 99% and say X% had TB effectively ruled out. This would help me as a clinician. An NPV of 95% doesn't help, I am going to investigate with sputum etc. #blueintheface academic.oup.com/cid/article/...
academic.oup.com
Performance of 2 Finger-Stick Blood Tests to Triage Adults With Symptoms of Pulmonary Tuberculosis: A Prospective Multisite Diagnostic Accuracy Study
Two finger-stick blood tests to triage people with symptoms of pulmonary tuberculosis by measuring 3 host proteins (multibiomarker test) or 3 host RNA tran
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