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Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 11s

A hurricane and storm surge watches are now up for parts of the northern #gulf. There continues to be a growing concern for flooding from this storm...especially along I-10 from #Florida west to #Mississippi. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

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Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 11m

It's very interesting watching the physics based modes vs. the AI models. As you can see the spaghetti models are on the left edge of the #NHC cone while the AI models are on the right side of the cone. Who do you think will preform better with the #Isaias forecast?

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Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 15m

#Isaias continues to get stronger and is forecast to become a #hurricane tomorrow. Landfall continues to to hone in on a #MS #AL western #Fl landfall #Friday evening. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

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Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 1h

Here's a look at the latest tropical models that showed a slight shift eastward last night ( Now Near Mobile Bay, AL). The intensity forecast still varies from TS to a CAT3. Wind shear may help keep this below major hurricanr status! Stay with #weshwx for updates.

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Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 13h

The latest model tracks are still lining up across the northern #Gulf tonight. The range on the intensity is from a TS to a CAT3 so we'll be watching for folks up that way! Stay with #weshwx for updates.

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Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 18h

#TD9 will be steered into the northern #Gulf by the building #Bermuda high later this week...in effect protecting us from the storm heading to Central #florida. We will of course watch this system until it makes that turn so check back with #weshwx for udates.

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Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 19h

#TD9 forms and is expected to become the seasons 1st hurricane. Landfall will across the northern #Gulf Late Friday or Saturday. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

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Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 19h

BREAKING: NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Nine (#Invest92L), located in the southwest Gulf of America, at 400 PM CDT!

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Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 19h

Pressure is slowly falling today with #Invest92L and hurricane hunters are sampling the atmosphere around this system. We could have a #TD very soon. Models are still headed to the northern #Gulf but the timing and intensity need still need to be figured out. Stay with #weshwx

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Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 20h

There is now a 100% chance that a TD will form in the #gulf over the next 48 hours. Hurricane hunters are in route to tell us we have in the SW #Gulf. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

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Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 23h

More heavy rain is likely over the next several days and a flood watch is already up for #Flagler county today. Flooding is possible right through #Friday across Central #florida. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

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Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 23h

Rainfall amounts continue to come in on the high side across most of #florida over the next 6 days. Some of the rainfall totals could exceed 6" through the weekend. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

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Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

8 PM Tropical Weather Outlook: Chances are now up to 70% over the next 2 days that a TD could form in the #Gulf. It's too early to say how strong this feature will get. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

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Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Right now I'm watching the risk for some locally heavy rainfall through about 8:30 tonight as we've heated up into the low 90s and the sea breezes are working inland across Central #florida at this hour. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

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Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Tropical Update: Afternoon models are coming in and the trend with #Invest92L is to gradually develop and then make the turn to the northern #Gulf as we head into the weekend. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

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Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

#Invest92L has been tagged in the #Gulf. We'll start getting the tropical models this afternoon. The latest global models are taking this feature into the northern #Gulf this weekend. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

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Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Our latest models continue to show our #Gulf low turning north by mid-week and could be in the northern Gulf by the weekend. If it's slower to head north the wind shear does weaken by Saturday and this may be something to watch as it could allow for more development. #weshwx

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Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Our #gulf feature is bubbling up some decent showers and storms over the last few hours. Gradual development is likely and a depression is possible by mid-week. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

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Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

We'll be watching the flood potential across Central #florida through at least Wednesday and depending on what happens with our feature in the #gulf this could be pushed back towards late week. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

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Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Rainfall Update: Latest computer models continue to paint a very wet picture across Central #Florida this week with a front nearby. Here's a look at the latest rainfall totals over the next few days. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

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Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

A lot of folks have been reaching out to me about possible development in the #Gulf this week. Here's a look at the latest computer model tracks. None of them, for right now, is significantly developing whatever develops and that's because wind shear increases this week! #weshwx

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Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

TROPICAL UPDATE: A broad area of low pressure may try & form this week and drift northward across the #gulf. Chances have risen to 40% over next 7 days for development. Forecast wind shear is likely to keep this from significantly developing. We'll be watching the trends. #weshwx

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Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Do to the potential for several days of locally heavy rainfall we'll be watching the chance for flooding through mid-week. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

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Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Here's a look at the #Euro and #GFS models for Central #florida. The GFS, still wet, but has come down a bit in totals compared to the Euro. We'll continue to watch the trends this week. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

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Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Latest computer models continue to signal a very wet week with a front draped over Central #florida and little impulses riding along it generating some good rainfall amounts over the #Peninsula. Here's a look at the latest rainfall amounts. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

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Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

A new feature has been tagged for potential development in the SW #Gulf come next week. This will be an area we watch for potential development come next week. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

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Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Afternoon models runs are coming in and it's shaping up to be a wet work week across Central #florida. Here's a look at the latest rainfall forecast. We'll be watching for any flooding concerns by mideeweek. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

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Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Tropical development isn't expected over the next 7 days. If we can get past the 2nd week of October, a time when we see a secondary maximium of development, there becomes a lower chance of development and a greater chance that we see NO hurricanes this season! Stay tuned!

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Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

In the longer range, next 7 days, the heavy rainfall does shift southward as a stalled out front slowly drops southward. Several inches of rainfall are expected across the #florida Peninsula next week with that front nearby. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

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Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Subtle shift in the heaviest rain placement this weekend folks. The highest rainfall chances across the Central #florida Peninsula will be from #Orlando west today and tomorrow. Here's a look at the latest rainfall forecasts. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

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Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Next week that front will linger nearby meaning we stay pretty wet. The Euro is definitely the wetter of the two Global models but the GFS still brings in some good rainfall across Central #florida. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

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Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

A front will be nearby this weekend and bring periods of rainfall across Central #florida. Our latest futurecast models show two very different scenarios. Our Graf model is the wetter of the two models and seems the more likely with a front neary. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

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Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

The latest radar shows some heavy rainfall moving northward across #Marion #Lake and #Volusia counties. Some nice rainfall totals todays with plenty more on the way over the next 7 days across Central #florida. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

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Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

In the #Pacific #Rachel is a CAT3 and expected to stay south of the #Baja and weaken over the next several days. #weshwx

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Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Believe it or not the remnants of #Fay have been bubbling up and may have a brief opportunity to try and make a comeback. That window closes Sunday. Eleswhere all is quiet in the tropical #Atlantic basin. #weshwx

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Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Welcome to #October everyone! It's a month where we see storm development in the #Caribbean #Gulf and across the SE #USA. It's also a month of transition from our wet to dry season. Take a look at the almanac for Central #florida. #weshwx

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Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

A higher coverage of showers and storms begins to move in today and will linger through the middle of next week. Rainfall totals with many of the models we look at are in the 3+" range through that stretch. We do need the rain but will have to watch for any flooding potential.

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Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

The pattern over the next 7 days continues to look very wet as a front will stall out over #florida allowing for impulses to ride along it and bring rounds of heavy rainfall to Central Florida. Here the updated look at the rainfall amounts. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

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Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

#October development is usually comes out of the #Caribbean and into the Gulf and NE towards #Bermuda. The month can also generate some powerful #hurricanes. Here's a look at some of the memorable storms from the month. #weshwx

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Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

A front will stall out across Central #florida late this weekend into next week which could lead to the potential for some heavy rainfall. Like yesterday, both the GFS and Euro models, are forecasting heavy rain across ALL of our region. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

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Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

The tropics are quiet now but the 2nd week of #October the models are hinting at the possibility of something trying to develop along the tail end of a front or something forming in the NW Caribbean and heading north. Plenty of time to watch. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

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Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

While the #Atlantic tropical basin is fairly quiet the #Pacific is very active with #Nolo #Polo #Rachel and #TD19. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

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Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Latest GFS and EURO models are indicating some good soaking rains moving in later this week into the middle of next week. This would be great news for our drought across Central #florida. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

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Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Moisture will be on the increase through the weekend making it feel very steamy by the time we get to Friday and the weekend across Central #florida. Here's the latest thinking of what's headed our way! Stay with #weshwx for updates.

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Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

As the heat and humidity build this week so will the "Feels Like" temperatures by late week into the weekend. We'll be around 100 in that department from Friday into the weekend across Central #florida! #heat #Summer #weshwx

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Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

#Polo is now a CAT1 hurricane and is moving across #Mexico but will likely bring heavy rainfall to #NM and #TX Wednesday and Thursday. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

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Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

The record for the latest 1st hurricane, in the modern era, continues to grow and will push into the month of #October! It will be interesting to see how #October plays out as we usually see development in the NW Caribbean and Gulf in October! Stay with #weshwx for updates.

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Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Next up #Hanna. It continues to hold on as a Tropical Storm but is expected to weaken on approach to the #Azores by the end of the week. We'll continue to monitor it for them this week. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

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Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Time for a quick #tropical update. First up #Fay. It's just barely holding on and will weaken to a remnant low over the next 24 hours. No threat to land. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

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Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Our muggy meter will be on the rise this week as winds turn out of the south and east! Stay with #weshwx for updates!

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