iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

With the 5PM advisory #Isaias I wanted to pass along the latest tropical advisories, storm surge advisories and latest peak storm surge forecast. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

000

Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

With the 5PM advisory #Isaias now has winds at 100 mph and an eye has become visible as the pressure remains the same at 975 mb. Foward motion is now NE at 12. It's moving faster with a landfall expected late Friday night or early Saturday morning. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

010

Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Here's a look at the 2 PM update on #Isaias. Moving ENE at 10 mph and will accelerate upon landfall. Wind is still at 85 mph for now. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

000

Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Heavy rain over the last few days has saturated many areas of Central #florida. More heavy rain is expected today and a flood watch is now up for many areas. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

000

Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Spaghetti model update! Models have really locked in on #MS #AL and western tip of #Fl. Ensembles range from #LA to #FL. The cone trend has inched westward overnight but has steadied along the AL/FL line the last two runs. Forecast intensity at landfall remains CAT1-CAT3. #weshwx

021

Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Here's a look at the latest information on #Isaias. Landfall to come Friday night into Saturday morning in the vacinity of #MS #AL or western #FL. Hurricane warnings are up for this entire area. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

010

Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Our tropical models still remain locked in on the center and western half off the #NHC cone. No change from overnight! The HCCA and HMON models are the right side of those physics based models and closer to the Google AI models. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

020

Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Hurricane warnings are up for #MS #AL and the western tip of #FL. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

020

Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft indicate that #Isaias has become a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph. The minimum central pressure is down to 982 mb! Stay with #weshwx for updates.

030

Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

The last two center points of the #NHC cone are almost identical and are right between the AI Model guidance and the physcis based models (Tropical Models). Stay with #weshwx for updates.

010

Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Hurricane and Tropical Storm warnings are now also in effect across the northern #gulf as #Isaias approaches Friday night into Saturday morning. Here's a look at the changes with the 11pm advisory. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

000

Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

#Isaias is almost a hurricane tonight. Winds are now at 70mph with a pressure of 988mb. The seasons 1st hurricane will form tomorrow, October 8th, setting the record for the latest first hurricane in the modern satellite era. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

010

Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Here's a look at our latest #Graf model which remains on the west side of the #NHC forecast cone. It's forecast wind gusts are 100+mph at landfall across southern #MS and #AL at landfall around midnight Saturday. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

031

Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Here's the latest on our peak storm forecast and where storm surge advisories are currently in place! Stay with #weshwx for updates!

020

Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Flooding will be a big concern with and after landfall from the coast to #Tennessee. We could see some isolated amounts in the 6-10" range in the #FL Panhandle westward to #Mobile. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

010

Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Evening tropical models have come in and they're honing in on #MS #Al and the western #FL Panhandle. The timing is anywhere from 10PM on the eastern side (Faster) of the cone and 8 AM Saturday on the western side (Slower) of the cone. Intensity from TS-CAT2.Stay with #weshwx for updates.

000

Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

The latest spaghetti models are honing in on the #MS #AL and #FL Panhandle for landfall Friday nigt into Saturday morning. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

010

Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

With the 5 pm Advisory our forecast cone is just SLIGHTLY to the east of the 11am cone by about 5-10 miles. Hurricane watches and tropical storm watches are up along the norhtern #Gulf coast. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

010

Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

A hurricane and storm surge watches are now up for parts of the northern #gulf. There continues to be a growing concern for flooding from this storm...especially along I-10 from #Florida west to #Mississippi. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

000

Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

It's very interesting watching the physics based modes vs. the AI models. As you can see the spaghetti models are on the left edge of the #NHC cone while the AI models are on the right side of the cone. Who do you think will preform better with the #Isaias forecast?

010

Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

#Isaias continues to get stronger and is forecast to become a #hurricane tomorrow. Landfall continues to to hone in on a #MS #AL western #Fl landfall #Friday evening. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

010

Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Here's a look at the latest tropical models that showed a slight shift eastward last night ( Now Near Mobile Bay, AL). The intensity forecast still varies from TS to a CAT3. Wind shear may help keep this below major hurricanr status! Stay with #weshwx for updates.

010

Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

The latest model tracks are still lining up across the northern #Gulf tonight. The range on the intensity is from a TS to a CAT3 so we'll be watching for folks up that way! Stay with #weshwx for updates.

031

Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

#TD9 will be steered into the northern #Gulf by the building #Bermuda high later this week...in effect protecting us from the storm heading to Central #florida. We will of course watch this system until it makes that turn so check back with #weshwx for udates.

010

Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

#TD9 forms and is expected to become the seasons 1st hurricane. Landfall will across the northern #Gulf Late Friday or Saturday. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

010

Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

BREAKING: NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Nine (#Invest92L), located in the southwest Gulf of America, at 400 PM CDT!

000

Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Pressure is slowly falling today with #Invest92L and hurricane hunters are sampling the atmosphere around this system. We could have a #TD very soon. Models are still headed to the northern #Gulf but the timing and intensity need still need to be figured out. Stay with #weshwx

020

Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

There is now a 100% chance that a TD will form in the #gulf over the next 48 hours. Hurricane hunters are in route to tell us we have in the SW #Gulf. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

000

Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

More heavy rain is likely over the next several days and a flood watch is already up for #Flagler county today. Flooding is possible right through #Friday across Central #florida. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

010

Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Rainfall amounts continue to come in on the high side across most of #florida over the next 6 days. Some of the rainfall totals could exceed 6" through the weekend. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

010

Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

8 PM Tropical Weather Outlook: Chances are now up to 70% over the next 2 days that a TD could form in the #Gulf. It's too early to say how strong this feature will get. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

020

Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Right now I'm watching the risk for some locally heavy rainfall through about 8:30 tonight as we've heated up into the low 90s and the sea breezes are working inland across Central #florida at this hour. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

010

Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Tropical Update: Afternoon models are coming in and the trend with #Invest92L is to gradually develop and then make the turn to the northern #Gulf as we head into the weekend. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

021

Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

#Invest92L has been tagged in the #Gulf. We'll start getting the tropical models this afternoon. The latest global models are taking this feature into the northern #Gulf this weekend. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

011

Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Our latest models continue to show our #Gulf low turning north by mid-week and could be in the northern Gulf by the weekend. If it's slower to head north the wind shear does weaken by Saturday and this may be something to watch as it could allow for more development. #weshwx

000

Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Our #gulf feature is bubbling up some decent showers and storms over the last few hours. Gradual development is likely and a depression is possible by mid-week. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

000

Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

We'll be watching the flood potential across Central #florida through at least Wednesday and depending on what happens with our feature in the #gulf this could be pushed back towards late week. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

000

Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Rainfall Update: Latest computer models continue to paint a very wet picture across Central #Florida this week with a front nearby. Here's a look at the latest rainfall totals over the next few days. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

000

Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

A lot of folks have been reaching out to me about possible development in the #Gulf this week. Here's a look at the latest computer model tracks. None of them, for right now, is significantly developing whatever develops and that's because wind shear increases this week! #weshwx

031

Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

TROPICAL UPDATE: A broad area of low pressure may try & form this week and drift northward across the #gulf. Chances have risen to 40% over next 7 days for development. Forecast wind shear is likely to keep this from significantly developing. We'll be watching the trends. #weshwx

010

Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Do to the potential for several days of locally heavy rainfall we'll be watching the chance for flooding through mid-week. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

020

Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Here's a look at the #Euro and #GFS models for Central #florida. The GFS, still wet, but has come down a bit in totals compared to the Euro. We'll continue to watch the trends this week. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

011

Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Latest computer models continue to signal a very wet week with a front draped over Central #florida and little impulses riding along it generating some good rainfall amounts over the #Peninsula. Here's a look at the latest rainfall amounts. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

010

Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

A new feature has been tagged for potential development in the SW #Gulf come next week. This will be an area we watch for potential development come next week. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

031

Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Afternoon models runs are coming in and it's shaping up to be a wet work week across Central #florida. Here's a look at the latest rainfall forecast. We'll be watching for any flooding concerns by mideeweek. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

001

Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Tropical development isn't expected over the next 7 days. If we can get past the 2nd week of October, a time when we see a secondary maximium of development, there becomes a lower chance of development and a greater chance that we see NO hurricanes this season! Stay tuned!

122

Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

In the longer range, next 7 days, the heavy rainfall does shift southward as a stalled out front slowly drops southward. Several inches of rainfall are expected across the #florida Peninsula next week with that front nearby. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

000

Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Subtle shift in the heaviest rain placement this weekend folks. The highest rainfall chances across the Central #florida Peninsula will be from #Orlando west today and tomorrow. Here's a look at the latest rainfall forecasts. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

011

Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Next week that front will linger nearby meaning we stay pretty wet. The Euro is definitely the wetter of the two Global models but the GFS still brings in some good rainfall across Central #florida. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

011

Tony Mainolfi @tmainolfiwesh.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

A front will be nearby this weekend and bring periods of rainfall across Central #florida. Our latest futurecast models show two very different scenarios. Our Graf model is the wetter of the two models and seems the more likely with a front neary. Stay with #weshwx for updates.

000