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Future hail projections remain highly uncertain. For hail frequency changes with global warming, our recent work showed a general poleward shift in hail conditions, but no significant projected changes over the Pyrenees (adapted from www.nature.com/articles/s41..., CC-BY-4.0). 12/14

For example, for frequency of very large hail (over 5 cm), Battaglioli et al reported an increasing trend in Europe from 1950—2023 (www.nature.com/articles/s41..., CC-BY-4.0). 11/14

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The European Severe Storms Laboratory’s more sophisticated forecast also showed probabilities of up to 60% for large hail, in regions around where the hail occurred (www.stormforecast.eu). 8/14

So was there instability and wind shear in this case? Yes, at least in the vicinity, in a model forecast (adapted from charts.ecmwf.int, CC-BY-4.0). 7/14

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Some protruding clouds appear in satellite imagery at that time, likely developed by strong updrafts that can support hail growth (MTG GeoColour RGB with MSG IR10.8 in the background, view.eumetsat.int). 4/14

The hailstorm hit when the riders were 15 km from the stage finish, cycling through Mont-Louis, at about 17:30 CEST (15:30 UTC). Radar data at that time show high reflectivities (over 50 dBZ) indicating the presence of large particles and lots of rain (zoom.earth/maps/radar/#...). 3/14

The storm was in the eastern French Pyrenees. This region is no stranger to hail — the Pyrenees is a well-known hail hotspot. This map shows where we get the most frequent hail environments in Europe (www.nature.com/articles/s41... CC-BY-4.0). 2/14

Tim Raupach @timraupach.com · 07/08/2026

In this new paper with Sarah Bang and John Allen, we used simulations to examine satellite hail detections in the Australian tropics. Roughly 1/4 of the simulations produced damaging hail at the surface. 1/4 rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...

Tim Raupach @timraupach.com · 04/08/2026

It’s great to be in Fukuoka for #AOGS2026. For this Sydneysider, experiencing WBGT over 34C also really puts heat-stress projections into perspective.

Tim Raupach @timraupach.com · 19/07/2026

Just spent a wonderful week visiting Uluṟu and Kata Tjuṯa on Anangu land. Peaceful and magical places.

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Our poster session for #EGU26 ITS4.4 is very active with lots of great discussion - interdisciplinary science from flooding rain, hail, to heat stress and financial risk.

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Finishing up the talks for ITS4.4 at #EGU26, Jung-Ching Kan talks about heat impact forecasts for Sweden using machine learning.

Nicolò Ardenghi now tells us about decision-making for managing important climate risks in Venice, in ITS4.4 at #EGU26.

Moving to the financial sector in ITS4.4 at #EGU26, we now have Chiara Cagnazzo talking about the @ecmwf.int C3S climate services for assessing physical climate risk.

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Till Sterzel now presents work on urban-planning adaptation under climate change, in ITS4.4 at #EGU26.

Now in ITS4.4 at #EGU26, Sebastian Vicuña tells us about climate change risks in semi-arid coastal basins with a focus on Chile.

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Next in ITS4.4 at #EGU26, @lucialayr.bsky.social presents her work on taking future climate projections into account in post-fire management.

Our session ITS4.4 on interdisciplinary approaches to complex climate risks is getting underway at #EGU26. First up Nicole van Maanen talks about challenges (and solutions) for comprehensive risk management. Excellent turnout for a morning session too!

Tim Raupach @timraupach.com · 04/05/2026

On Tuesday afternoon in AS1.7 at #EGU26 I'm presenting my work with Sarah Bang and John Allen on simulations of satellite-detected hail events in the Australian tropics. meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU26/EGU26-...

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Tim Raupach @timraupach.com · 04/05/2026

Tuesday at #EGU26, Ben Newell, @janalbrecht.bsky.social, @vitusbenson.bsky.social and I co-convene ITS4.4 "Interdisciplinary approaches to addressing complex climate risks". Our exciting lineup has research on extremes and decision-making from fire to hail. Talks 8.30 in -2.62, posters 10.45 in X5.

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Tim Raupach @timraupach.com · 03/05/2026

I’m excited to be on the way to #EGU26! So much amazing science to discuss. I’m talking on Tuesday about hailstorms in the tropics - here’s some convective activity in that neighborhood I saw on the way.

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Tim Raupach @timraupach.com · 30/03/2026

We have an open postdoc position at @ccrc.bsky.social. This postdoc will work with @jasonpevans.bsky.social, Fiona Johnson, and me, together with partner organisations NSW DCEEW and @nswses.bsky.social, on rainfall extremes and flooding. external-careers.jobs.unsw.edu.au/cw/en/job/53...

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Tim Raupach @timraupach.com · 26/03/2026

I had a great time representing UNSW Science at Science Meets Parliament #SMP2026 in Canberra, from friendly meetings with parliamentarians to learning about all the ways everyone can have their say in our democracy. A great opportunity to learn and share.

Tim Raupach @timraupach.com · 05/03/2026

This is great - hundreds of spectacular cross-section photos and linked 3D models for hailstones in Australia, from the UQ Hail Library www.flickr.com/people/uq-ha.... Thanks @joshuasoderholm.bsky.social for making this library and making it open access!

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Tim Raupach @timraupach.com · 16/02/2026

Great to be in sunny Hobart in lutruwita/Tasmania for the @amosupdates.bsky.social 2026 meeting. Here’s the gorgeous view from kunanyi/Mt Wellington yesterday. The very apt #AMOS2026 conference theme is “southern skies, southern oceans: science on the edge”.

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Tim Raupach @timraupach.com · 12/01/2026

Final call! Abstract submissions for #EGU26 close on 15 January at 13h CET. Our interdisciplinary session on complex climate risks is looking for contributions on physical climate science and decision making, storyline approaches, impact-based forecasting, and more! www.egu26.eu/session/57683

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Tim Raupach @timraupach.com · 01/12/2025

How should decision-makers address extreme weather hazards when considering complex climate risks? At #EGU26, Ben Newell, @vitusbenson.bsky.social, @janasillmann.bsky.social and I are convening a session on interdisciplinary approaches. Abstract deadline 15 Jan! www.egu26.eu/session/57683

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Tim Raupach @timraupach.com · 21/11/2025

We’re coming to the end of a big week of storm science as #ECSS2025 wraps up. Here Boris Blanc presents his work on interannual variability in hailstorms in Australian cities. Boris is doing a PhD with me at UNSW. An impressive audience present for the last session!

Tim Raupach @timraupach.com · 18/11/2025

Had a great poster session at #ECSS2025 with plenty of fruitful discussions. Tanya Patel, who I’m supervising for a PhD, presented her work on land-ocean lightning contrast in the Australian tropics. I showed downscaling-based hail size projections for Australian cities.

A poster hall with people discussing their work

Tim Raupach @timraupach.com · 17/11/2025

I’m very happy to be in Utrecht, The Netherlands, for the 12th European Conference on Severe Storms #ECSS2025 run by @essl-ecss.bsky.social and supported by @knmi.nl and @eumetsat.int. Here, @pietergroenemeijer.bsky.social opens the conference. Lots of exciting science to discuss this week!

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Tim Raupach @timraupach.com · 08/11/2025

Storm development over Sydney yesterday

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Tim Raupach @timraupach.com · 21/10/2025

Didn't expect this error but to be honest it seems fair enough...

MemoryError: Unable to allocate 892. TiB for an array with shape (29200, 180, 360, 180, 360) and data type float64

Tim Raupach @timraupach.com · 25/09/2025

This feels like the right music to be listening to while working on climate projections of hail risk to crops...

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Joanna Aldridge (QBE) presented on projections of large hail risk in the USA.

Greeshma Surendran from @ccrc.bsky.social uses pseudo-global warming models to look at changes in extreme wind gusts.

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Next up, David Bee Olmedo from @nsw-bnhrc.bsky.social and @ccrc.bsky.social discusses scaling of extreme rainfall with temperature calculated using radar data.

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Our afternoon session at the storms workshop is on climate impacts. Getting us started is Sarah Chapman from the Queensland Government talking about projections for storm environments under different warming levels.

An important panel now at our storms workshop, as early career researchers tell us about their experiences, hopes and dreams in storm science and industry.

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Todd Lane from Uni Melbourne explores the types of organised convection that occur in Australia - not all storms follow the standard textbook model.

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Anthony Cornelius from Weatherwatch uses radar data to look at possible hailstorm drivers.

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Harald Richter (BOM) starts our workshop session on observations and modeling by talking about learnings from the @noaa.gov spring forecasting experiment 2025.

At our storms workshop, Rob Warren (BOM) looks at the climatology and large-scale environments of thunderstorms across Australia

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Jordan Brook from BOM now explains rapid forecast updates including a primer on ensemble forecasting

James Harding from the BOM gets the workshop started today with a description of how thunderstorm forecasting works.

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The sun is out for the second day of the science-industry workshop on severe convective storms, hosted by the UNSW Institute for Climate Risk and Response

Wrapping up the storms workshop for today, Joanna Aldridge (QBE) moderates a panel session with Stephen Lau (Finity), Rob Fortune (Guy Carpenter), and Matt Mason (Uni Queensland) talking about insurance, catastrophe modeling and resilience. More workshop on our second day tomorrow!

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You know you’re at a severe storms workshop when…

Lakshmi Kalavapilly from the Uni of Queensland now gives a presentation on developing a stochastic hail model for Australia.

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