iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Tim Baxter @timinclimate.naruresearch.com.au · 06/10/2026

Oh no! Fortunately ours has this handy internal flood control thing that triggered long before anything more serious happened. Glad everyone is safe at yours. Bless the person who invented safety switches.

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Tim Baxter @timinclimate.naruresearch.com.au · 06/10/2026

Other than to have me crawling on the floor, if my dishwasher isn't leaking then why was it flooded?

Me lying on the floor next to a partly disassembled dishwasher.

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Tim Baxter @timinclimate.naruresearch.com.au · 06/10/2026

What on earth is going on with the Liberal Party's communications team? I just noticed this in my spam folder. "Stand with Small"?! REALLY! 🫪

Thanks for standing with small,

Tim Wilson
Stand with Small

P.S. The Stand with Small movement is focused on backing small business. But we need your help to stay connected so we can back you. We are keen for your feedback.

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Tim Baxter @timinclimate.naruresearch.com.au · 05/10/2026

I’m sure writing a good campaign slogan is really hard in 2026 - and I’m probably late to the party here - but what in the mood board does “Real Change has a Plan” mean?

Jess Wilson Liberal Victoria

Real Change has a Plan.

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Tim Baxter @timinclimate.naruresearch.com.au · 05/10/2026

I disagree. ATAGI is making its decisions within a framework of government programs with budget allocations. Notably, they don't recommend against a booster for healthy adults (they do for healthy minors!), they just don't affirmatively recommend it. Vaccines could be free to those who want them.

Table 1. COVID-19 recommendations by cohort and risk in Australia

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Tim Baxter @timinclimate.naruresearch.com.au · 04/10/2026

In an era where all the most sensible people claim the climate crisis has lost its political salience, the AFR may have been surprised by who doesn't shit up about the climate crisis. I'm not. The next step is realising that the progressive refusal to talk about it is why they are winning.

We analysed which MPs mention climate the most – and we were surprised
An analysis of thousands of parliamentary speeches reveals which politicians talk the most about global warming. It’s not always who you might think.

Australia’s political classes have been bickering about climate change on the floor of federal parliament for almost two decades. Lately, though, only one side of politics seems keen to mention it.

Since Labor won the 2022 election on the back of an ambitious climate agenda, its MPs have talked about the issue in parliament a little bit less every year. Over the past four years, mentions of climate change by Labor MPs are down 60 per cent.

The Coalition, by contrast, is talking about it more than ever. Despite abandoning its commitment to the key global target of net zero emissions by 2050 in November, opposition mentions of the phrase have almost doubled since 2023.

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Tim Baxter @timinclimate.naruresearch.com.au · 04/10/2026

There are early signs that the fire season in Victoria and Tasmania could be bad. This seasonal outlook for rain (left) and temperature (right) over the next three months is not friendly. There is lots of time to pass until fire season down here - and things will shift! - but this is a bad start.

Map showing the chance that rainfall will be low in Victoria and Tasmania. In the southern half of Victoria, there is an above average (1.5x-2x higher than normal) chance that rainfall will be low. In most of Tasmania there is much higher than normal (2x-3.5x higher than normal) change rainfall will be low.

Map showing the chance that temperatures will be high in Victoria and Tasmania. Across both state, virtually all of the state has a much, much higher than normal (4x+ times higher than normal) change temperatures will be high.

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Tim Baxter @timinclimate.naruresearch.com.au · 03/10/2026

Perfection from @davidho.bsky.social: retractionwatch.com/2026/10/02/p...

David Ho, a climate scientist at the University of Hawaii, responded to our request for comment on the paper by saying he was not interested in reading it. “I’m sorry, but I’d rather keep my brain cells,” he said.

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Tim Baxter @timinclimate.naruresearch.com.au · 02/10/2026

Dang. That was big by our standards. It woke us both up.

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Tim Baxter @timinclimate.naruresearch.com.au · 02/10/2026

THE SAME CHILD WHO BOUGHT ME A BIN FOR MY CAR ALSO THINKS THE PLACE TO PUT SCUNGY USED TISSUES IN MY CAR IS THE DOOR HANDLE

The picture shows what you would expect. What the fuck.

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Tim Baxter @timinclimate.naruresearch.com.au · 30/09/2026

This is a good piece, with meaningful echoes for Australia as the far right contributes its ascendancy here unchecked. So much of the debate about politics and power here is narratives. In the disinformation age narratives have never been cheaper. What people need instead is outcomes.

Ordinary Americans, really and truly, are not pining to hear a more compelling story about the public squalor and economic dysfunction they are compelled to live with every day. What they need is universal healthcare, affordable housing, and an education system that doesn’t drown them with debt. They need free transit, bountiful jobs, real representation at work and a government that doesn’t funnel trillions into the military-industrial complex. They need an economy where finance and commerce are properly regulated and the behaviour of most politicians isn’t dictated by the whims of plutocratic campaign donors.

What they categorically do not need is another cozy fable whose only real purpose is to sooth them amid the rot.

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Tim Baxter @timinclimate.naruresearch.com.au · 29/09/2026

No-one wins a million bucks! The author of this surprisingly rational take on offsets and the government's ACCU bill is new One Nation MP David Farley. Lots of folks have theorised AI, but I'm not sold on that theory. Of course it might be, but the structure of the argument feels too human to me.

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Tim Baxter @timinclimate.naruresearch.com.au · 29/09/2026

Another paragraph from the same speech.

What did the evidence show? People were being paid for not clearing forests that were never going to be cleared, landfill operators were collecting credits for running generators they would have run anyway, and the human induced regeneration, the single largest category of credits this scheme has ever issued—42 million hectares, receiving 45 million ACCUs—was investigated by the ANU researchers in 2024. They found that most of the sampled projects didn't even comply with their own basic regulatory requirements and showed negligible real increases in tree cover for all that money and for all those credits. So the entity responsible for issuing the credits investigated itself, commissioned a review and found itself blameless. Meanwhile, new projects were banned in October 2023, but existing projects kept generating credits. This is not a hypothetical risk we're being asked to legislate against; this is what's already happened, and at scale. It has public money and other countries' trust in our national commitment riding on it.

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Tim Baxter @timinclimate.naruresearch.com.au · 26/09/2026

Energy nerd Christmas was yesterday, with the release of the Australia's official energy data for 2024–25. I think the share of Australia's gas being sent offshore hit a new all-time record high for the year, which is neat unless you are running an Aussie business or home that uses energy.

Australian gas production and use in the 2024–25 financial year
As with every other year in the past decade, Australia produced far more gas than it used in 2024-25.

76.5% of all the gas produced in Australia shipped overseas via one of Australia's 10 liquefied gas terminals. Another 8.3% of all the gas produced in Australia was burned by those gas export terminals and their supporting infrastructure to produce, process and compress that gas for export.

Well under one-fifth of the gas produced in Australia went to Australian users of the fuel. Gas exporters burn more of their own product preparing gas for export than any sector of Australia's domestic economy.

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Tim Baxter @timinclimate.naruresearch.com.au · 18/09/2026

Sometimes the email writes itself. God bless the bureaucrats running cover for the fossil fuel industry.

Hi [redacted],

Could you please let me know whether Santos has applied for internal review, or review by the OAIC?

Also, could you please set out the timelines for me?

Specifically, I am interested in:
- When was Santos informed about the decision to grant access to the documents?
- When did they apply for review of that decision?
- Was Santos's review request submitted on a timely basis? If not, could you please set out the specific grounds for granting this extension?
- When is the internal review request / OAIC review expected to be completed?

I was advised of the decision to grant documents on the 3rd of August. If Santos were advised contemporaneously, then their 30-day review period expired on the 2nd of September. You are advising me now, on the 18th of September that they have applied for review. This is more than two weeks beyond the end of the 30-day period. Unless there has been a very substantial delay in you informing me of their review request, this represents a deeply problematic interpretation of the FOI Act.

As you know, a review request requires no specific manner or form. Granting a review request this far beyond the statutory window indicates a substantial issue with the application of the laws that bind the Department.

Regards,

T

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Tim Baxter @timinclimate.naruresearch.com.au · 16/09/2026

Melbourne's start to spring has been so unreasonably warm that I now feel crazy because tonight the temperature is exactly average for this time of year. Literally the 50th percentile.

Screenshot of Is It Hot Right Now with a bell curve showing that the average temperature today was precisely in line with the historical average.

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Tim Baxter @timinclimate.naruresearch.com.au · 16/09/2026

If I were @ketanjoshi.co I would have mistakenly put that quote in single quotes, because - full disclosure - I did compress it a little. Here are Tony's comments in full:

RE-Alliance, an independent not-for-profit dedicated to ensuring the shift to renewables benefits the regions and its people, says the back-down on WRL is the very last message rural communities needed to hear from the government on a project it says should have already been completed.

Tony Goodfellow, policy and engagement manager at RE-Alliance, says the WRL about-face looks more like a reaction to the “reckless positions” from the opposition and One Nation than sound leadership.

“Western Renewables Link is a long-established project that’s been studied, consulted on and planned over many years. It will connect new energy projects to keep the lights on in Victoria,” says Goodfellow.

“Communities across western Victoria have been asked to participate in that process and prepare for the changes and opportunities it will bring. They should not now be thrown back into uncertainty because the politics has become difficult in Melbourne.

“RE-Alliance has consistently called for better consultation, fair treatment of affected landholders and stronger benefits for host communities. But those legitimate concerns will not be resolved by another delay. They will be resolved by delivering the project properly, with communities at the table.

“The answer to the reckless positions of One Nation and Liberal Party is not … to signal a project slowdown,” he told Renew Economy on Wednesday. “That’s not not leadership.”

Goodfellow points to the recent report from Nexa Advisory – a point of discussion at Tuesday’s CEDA luncheon – that shows the WRL should actually have been completed by now and that delays are driving cost increases.

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Tim Baxter @timinclimate.naruresearch.com.au · 16/09/2026

Sadly, Annabel Crabb's Dad's hovercraft was broken down. (That's her mum in the background.)

Photo of myself and my daughter riding a broken down hovercraft.

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Tim Baxter @timinclimate.naruresearch.com.au · 15/09/2026

I get unreasonably excited every time I am reading a super technical scientific journal article and see one of my very clever friends being cited. Go @climatefreund.bsky.social ! 💛 (I may not entirely understand what the hell else is going on in the article, but I sure do know that name!)

M. B. Freund, B. J. Henley, D. J. Karoly, H. V. McGregor, N. J. Abram, D. Dommenget, Higher frequency of Central Pacific El Nino events in recent decades relative to past centuries. Nat. Geosci. 12, 450–455 (2019).

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Tim Baxter @timinclimate.naruresearch.com.au · 15/09/2026

Browse gas basin will likely not only get to pretend that is has always been there. It can also pretend to be part of an LNG terminal that is 900 km away. That's further than the distance from Melbourne to Sydney, and about as far as the Northern Territory's west border is from its eastern one.

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Tim Baxter @timinclimate.naruresearch.com.au · 15/09/2026

What great laws. We should keep them exactly as they are because they are doing just fine.

Treatment of emissions from Woodside's Browse gas basin under Australia's climate pollution laws.

Accessible full text of this table is available in the full analysis contained at the link in the final post of this thread.

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Tim Baxter @timinclimate.naruresearch.com.au · 15/09/2026

Did you know that Woodside's Browse gas project – starting in the early 2030s at the soonest – will likely get to pretend that it has always existed under Australia's climate pollution laws in order to avoid laws specifically put in place to hold that project to a higher standard? Now you do!

Estimated annual emissions allowance for Browse gas project under Australia's climate pollution laws

Substantial loopholes in Australia's climate pollution laws mean that Woodside's Browse project may avoid being treated as a new facility under laws specifically designed to hold that project to a higher standard. This is occurring even though the project will not commence until the early 2030s at the soonest. It is new by any reasonable measure.

The total benefit of this loophole to Woodside and its joint venture partners is in the order of $210 million.

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Tim Baxter @timinclimate.naruresearch.com.au · 14/09/2026

The book is too old for them, sadly. Lang Hancock makes an appearance though.

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Tim Baxter @timinclimate.naruresearch.com.au · 14/09/2026

What the fuck is the kerning in this book title? This is violence. It causes me pain. Even ignoring the weird double-o thing. I think the lettering might even be different sizes?! I may have been staring at it too long.

Cover of "The Cold-Blooded Australians" by Gunther Schmida

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Tim Baxter @timinclimate.naruresearch.com.au · 13/09/2026

My 19-year-old's boyfriend left some "hot sauce" here the last time he stayed. Without realising whose it was, I just used it with dinner and it makes Nando's Lemon and Herb look spicy. This is sufficient for me to campaign that she dump him, right?

Bottle of Franks's RedHot Wings Buffalo sauce.

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Tim Baxter @timinclimate.naruresearch.com.au · 13/09/2026

Australian energy efficiency maven Jenny Edwards is on an upcoming home reno series where the schtick is to fix up an old 1970s house to bring it into the 2020s for (relatively!) cheap. I don't know the show, but Jenny is great value. I will be watching. You should too for cheap idea!

Only two weeks to go until you get to check out a small selection of my energy geek t-shirts, the colour of my lab coat, how quickly I can V-tape a door and the coolest insulation I've ever hugged.

Oh, and (to quote one of my millennial co-presenters) you will also hear about: "an incredibly old hot water system"... the same age as me, that is finally getting a rest.

Things from the 70s have good bones! Well, if you exclude my three hip replacements. Let's just say my days climbing through chick-hatches (aka manholes) to install ceiling insulation came to an end around 2010. Another reason I love my thermal camera so much.

You will totally D.I.G. this show (where D stands for draught sealing, I stands for insulating and G stands for getting off gas).

Small changes that have BIG impact.

After 18 years testing it, I know a little bit of practical, cost-effective science can go a long way.

9Life New TV series Big Little Reno 3.30pm Sunday 27 September

There experts
One original 1970s home
Budget under $50k

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Tim Baxter @timinclimate.naruresearch.com.au · 11/09/2026

It has been a long week, I'm tired and I have had three beers. Someone please stop me from paying $50 to promote this functionally identical post on LinkedIn as a joke.

Basically the same post, but on LinkedIn.

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Tim Baxter @timinclimate.naruresearch.com.au · 11/09/2026

Look at this girl who joined me upstairs during a work call this evening.

Photo of an Arctic cross breed dog sitting very politely on a sun lounge.

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Tim Baxter @timinclimate.naruresearch.com.au · 11/09/2026

It is right to feel and think all sorts of things after this week, but - credit where credit is due - this is objectively a pretty funny joke from coal-face. www.afr.com/policy/energ...

Screenshot from the AFR.

Headline: Matt Canavan invites Bob Brown to join National Party

Body: Nationals leader Matt Canavan has invited veteran environmentalist Bob Brown to join his party’s ranks after the Greens founder spearheaded an unsuccessful campaign to stop carbon credits being used to protect koalas and end logging in native forests.

The Greens on Thursday voted against a Nationals senate motion to kill off the new carbon credits, which will be generated by native forests in NSW that ...

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Tim Baxter @timinclimate.naruresearch.com.au · 11/09/2026

I regret to inform you that the feral horse fans are still fucked in the head.

AI generated image showing a well-maintained domestic horse in an alpine grassland at sunset touching noses with a thylacine.

The text above their heads reads " Different times same mindset. don't let history repeat."

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Tim Baxter @timinclimate.naruresearch.com.au · 11/09/2026

Back in 2020, I wrote a short report for the Climate Council called "Primed for Action". Obviously the COVID context is different now, but the problem and the solution for Australia is fundamentally the same, and despite the absence of lockdowns if anything more acute.

Four part typology of climate action for Australia, taken from the linked report. For machine-readable full text, see the link.

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Tim Baxter @timinclimate.naruresearch.com.au · 09/09/2026

How is your local Facebook group going? Mine is having a real normal one.

Anonymous member: If you are the lady that took a canvas bag of cans from my property and lied to my face about being told you could have them and who you are collecting for, I’d appreciate that you bring them back.

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Tim Baxter @timinclimate.naruresearch.com.au · 09/09/2026

Each day around lunchtime I spray all the high-contact areas and leave the solution to air dry. i empty the bird bath, pat it dry, spray the solution and leave it.5- 10 minutes later I pat dry again, give it a little rinse then refill. This 👇 other little bird bath gets done a few times a week.

Small tray bird bath with rocks and sticks.

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Tim Baxter @timinclimate.naruresearch.com.au · 09/09/2026

Some folks have asked about the disinfecting regime I use, so I figured I'd do a mini-thread. I use F10 veterinary disinfectant, because it is biodegradable, non-toxic, effective and cheap. The concentrate I bought online was ~$30 and makes 50L of solution. I use a 1:250 mix and apply for 5 min.

A bottle of F10 concentrate and the spray bottle.

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Tim Baxter @timinclimate.naruresearch.com.au · 09/09/2026

Check out these cocky bastards! (Yes. We are already doing daily disinfecting of the bird bath and railing for H5N1)

Photo of a birdbath and balcony railing with a large number of sulphur-crested cockatoos visiting.

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Tim Baxter @timinclimate.naruresearch.com.au · 07/09/2026

I was just playing around with global temperature data for a thing and I know that this isn't going to be new news for anyone who follows me but also this is kinda fucking terrifying. Boy it is very lucky that we have a government that is continuing to approve new coal and gas projects.

Chart showing global monthly temperature change compared to pre-industrial from 1940 to the present.

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Tim Baxter @timinclimate.naruresearch.com.au · 06/09/2026

Between finishing up at my old job, starting a new business, and a range of family stuff, I haven't been out on the water since March, maybe earlier. Blue Rock Lake and the Tanjil didn't get less pretty in the meanwhile. Still probably my favourite place.

Phot of the bow of a kayak pointing into a flooded eucalypt forest full of dead trees.

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Tim Baxter @timinclimate.naruresearch.com.au · 05/09/2026

My dad had an obnoxiously large music collection until about a decade ago, when he begrudgingly ripped everything to the computer and sold the lot. Guess which son has the job of copying the entire collection off his ancient fucking PC to his new laptop.

Screenshot showing the copy process in MS windows.

124297 items are shown as remaining, at 795 GB. This is shown as expected to take 22 hours.

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Tim Baxter @timinclimate.naruresearch.com.au · 03/09/2026

🟡 New analysis: Federal and NT Government's comprehensively repudiate their own commitment to fully offset climate pollution from the Beetaloo Basin 🟡 A precondition for fracking in the NT set by the 2018 Pepper inquiry was that all new Australian climate pollution should be fully offset.

Table showing emissions from the four most advanced projects in the Beetaloo Basin, and their respective offset requirements this decade. The contents of this table will be discussed below.

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Tim Baxter @timinclimate.naruresearch.com.au · 01/09/2026

Graeme Edwards had a family. And these monstrous fucking ghouls want more families to suffer for the sake of their culture war. Feeding the workers into the furnace like the lignite.

'He did nothing wrong'

Graeme Edwards had a family. And these monstrous fucking ghouls want more families to suffer for the sake of their culture war.

Feed them into the furnace like the lignite.

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Tim Baxter @timinclimate.naruresearch.com.au · 01/09/2026

Australia's largest contribution to the climate crisis - by some distance - is our production and export of coal and gas. While there are other things that are important as well if you forget to fight this, what are you fighting for? See here: naruresearch.com.au/australias-t...

Chart showing Australia's growing fossil fuel exports over time, with exports now more than double Australia's territorial emissions.

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Tim Baxter @timinclimate.naruresearch.com.au · 01/09/2026

I also found this remarkable. When a government minister isn't willing to lie about whether a new energy project is going to lower bills, you *really* know that the situation is bad. ntindependent.com.au/first-gas-fr...

But asked by a listener on Mix 104.9 Monday morning about potential savings on power bills, Ms Finocchiaro said that was not going to happen.

“I would love to say yes, unfortunately, that’s not going to be the case,” she said.

“But what we will see is a serious stabilisation. So, we are doing massive amounts of reform behind the scenes on our power generation and networks to make it much cheaper to produce…and so that we’re not passing that cost on to Territorians, and we have an enormous community service obligation.”

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