Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 7h10/ Read more: isw.pub/UkrWar100426 1653
Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 7h9/ Ukrainian forces advanced in the Borova direction and Lyman tactical area. Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian military assets. Russia launched 135 drones against Ukraine overnight. 1965
Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 7h8/ Russian civilians protested the results of the September 2026 State Duma elections in Moscow City on October 4. 1611
Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 7h7/ The Russian military continues forming new maneuver divisions as part of the implementation of its longstanding plans to transition towards a force structure based on mass and divisions. 1543
Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 7h6/ Ukraine is urgently pursuing domestic production of jet-powered drone interceptors to combat Russia’s escalating strike campaign, as Russia continues to stockpile ballistic and quasi-ballistic missiles for future long-range strikes. 1654
Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 7h5/ Ukraine is already suffering from Russia’s increasingly deadly strike campaign that has intensified since late September 2026, however. 1572
Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 7h4/ The prominent Kremlin-affiliated milblogger Rybar media project criticized the Russian MoD’s disingenuous framing of its Winter 2026-2027 strike campaign as retaliatory in nature. 1603
Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 7hOther Key Takeaways: 3/ The Russian strikes are not an actual response to specific events, however, and many of the MoD’s specific claims are blatantly false. 1687
Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 7h2/ The Russian MoD is unfoundedly framing these strikes as a response to many grievances going back several months. 1585
Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 7hNEW: The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) presented its main rhetorical framing to justify what will become Russia’s brutal Fall-Winter 2026-2027 strike campaign against Ukrainian critical infrastructure. (1/10) Read more: isw.pub/UkrWar100426 315251
Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 10h3/ Iran Update, October 4, 2026:isw.pubIran Update, October 4, 2026The Houthis captured the key supply route between Taiz and Aden cities on October 4, which is part of the Houthi campaign to seize Taiz City. 0271
Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 10h2/ Other Key Takeaways: The Yemeni government announced an offensive operation across all fronts against the Houthis, but ISW-CTP has not yet observed any offensive action. 1453
Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 10hNEW: The Houthis captured the key supply route between Taiz and Aden cities on October 4, which is part of the Houthi campaign to seize Taiz City. (1/3) Read more: isw.pub/IranUpdate10... 39929
Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 03/10/20264/ Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 3, 2026: isw.pub/UkrWar100326 1735
Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 03/10/20263/ Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against missile and drone launch sites in Russia. Russia launched 157 drones against Ukraine overnight and Banderol loitering munitions on the morning of October 3. Russian forces recently advanced southeast of Sumy City. 1915
Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 03/10/20262/ Other Key Takeaways: Russian forces struck the Northern Bridge in Kyiv City on October 3 as part of Russia’s continued efforts to degrade the city’s traffic across the Dnipro River and cause wider disruptions to Ukraine’s economy and daily civilian life. 2634
Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 03/10/2026NEW: Five Russian drones, including Banderol loitering munitions, crashed in Moldova on the morning of October 3, exceeding the number of aerial vehicles involved in the last Russian violation of Moldovan airspace. (1/4) Read the full report: isw.pub/UkrWar100326 123268
Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 03/10/20266/ Iran Update, October 3, 2026:isw.pubIran Update, October 3, 2026Saudi or Yemeni government-aligned forces conducted airstrikes on Sanaa City on October 3, likely to degrade Houthi capabilities. 0312
Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 03/10/20265/ Yemeni media reported that the Houthis’ attempted advances failed, and ISW-CTP has also not observed evidence of significant Houthi advances on these fronts at the time of this writing. 1431
Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 03/10/20264/ The Houthis attempted to advance on fronts in western and eastern Taiz Governorate on October 2 and 3, likely as part of the Houthi effort to encircle Taiz City and sever the Yemeni government’s last ground line of communication between Taiz City and Aden. 1310
Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 03/10/20263/ Yemeni Armed Forces Spokesperson Majed al Nuzaili claimed that strikes on Houthi reinforcements and support convoys have caused a state of “deprivation” that is weakening Houthi forces’ ability to fight in Taiz Governorate. 1310
Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 03/10/20262/ Other Key Takeaways: Yemeni government-aligned forces also struck Houthi frontline positions, reinforcements, and logistics throughout southwestern Yemen. 1330
Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 03/10/2026NEW: Saudi or Yemeni government-aligned forces conducted airstrikes on Sanaa City on October 3, likely to degrade Houthi capabilities central to the group’s offensive campaigns. (1/6) Read the full report: isw.pub/IranUpdate10... 39517
Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 03/10/20266/ Iran Update, October 2, 2026: isw.pub/IranUpdate10... 0413
Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 03/10/20265/ Iranian-backed Iraqi militias Kataib Sayyid al Shuhada and Harakat Ansar Allah al Awfiya announced their commitment to an unspecified Shia Coordination Framework disarmament agreement on October 1. The agreement will likely enable the militias to retain access to their weapons. 1514
Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 03/10/20264/ Saudi and Yemeni government-aligned forces are attempting to disrupt Houthi advances in southwestern Yemen by conducting airstrikes targeting Houthi front-line positions, reinforcements, supply centers, and command and control (C2). 1373
Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 03/10/20263/ Pakistani and Turkish military support to Saudi Arabia reflects increasing military cooperation between the three countries under the “Mecca Pact,” a mutual defense treaty which the countries signed on August 7. 1393
Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 03/10/2026Other Key Takeaways: 2/ Saudi allies Pakistan and Turkey are providing defensive and offensive military support to Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni government. 1414
Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 03/10/2026NEW: Saudi Arabia is reportedly preparing to support a Yemeni government offensive to recapture territory on the southern Red Sea coastal plain from the Houthis. Yemeni government forces likely have the capacity to successfully execute such an offensive, assuming the objectives are limited. (1/6) 112130
Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 03/10/20267/ Read more: isw.pub/UkrWar100226 1845
Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 03/10/20266/ Ukrainian forces continue to conduct an intense intermediate-range strike campaign against Russian logistics in southern occupied Ukraine as part of battlefield-shaping operations that will likely continue to enable Ukrainian counteroffensives. 213212
Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 03/10/20265/ Scaling production of interceptors for jet-powered drones must be an urgent priority for all of Ukraine’s supporters alongside continuing efforts to source Patriot interceptors and to field new systems for intercepting ballistic missiles. 1905
Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 03/10/20264/ Russian forces are likely stockpiling their ballistic and quasi-ballistic missiles in the meantime for more intense future long-range strike packages after Russia’s jet-powered drones have lost their current advantage. 2795
Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 03/10/20263/ It remains vital for Ukraine and its supporters to work urgently to defend against the Russian attack on Ukraine’s civilian populations while simultaneously maintaining Ukraine’s current battlefield momentum and to avoid accepting tradeoffs between those two requirements. 1946
Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 03/10/2026Other Key Takeaways: 2/ Ukrainian officials are confirming long-held assessments about Russia’s intent to target Ukraine’s civilian and critical infrastructure, especially in major cities, during its Winter 2026-2027 strike campaign. 1795
Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 03/10/2026NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin advanced Russia’s ongoing cognitive warfare efforts to persuade the world that European leaders who respond to Russian threats and continued limited kinetic attacks in Europe are the actual aggressors. (1/7) Read more: isw.pub/UkrWar100226 821363
Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 02/10/2026The Multimedia & Video Production internship is the newest program offered by ISW's External Relations team! Interns will support the production of visuals accompanying ISW's research content and hone their multimedia skills. Apply today: isw.pub/MultimediaInternship 0311
Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 02/10/20264/ China & Taiwan Update, October 2, 2026:isw.pubChina & Taiwan Update, October 2, 2026The PLA opened its third overseas military base, the China-Laos Military Joint Support and Training Center, in Ban Keun, Laos. 0232
Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 02/10/20263/ The PRC may be surveying undersea cables near the Philippines’ Batanes Islands, an island chain located near Taiwan. The PRC could disrupt communications between Taiwan, the Philippines, and other Taiwanese partners and allies in a future Taiwan contingency. 2326
Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 02/10/20262/ Other Key Takeaways: The location of this base is likely intended to symbolize the strength of the PRC-Laos relationship and to support PRC regional military activity. 1121
Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 02/10/2026NEW: The People’s Republic of China (PRC) opened its third overseas military base in Laos on September 29, the first PLA overseas military base focused on airpower. (1/4) Read the full report: isw.pub/ChinaTaiwanU... 57027
Reposted by Institute for the Study of WarCritical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 02/10/2026NEW🚨| There is a growing risk that Eritrea will become more directly involved in the war in northern Ethiopia as fighting spreads north and diplomatic relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea collapse, removing off ramps and deconfliction channels. 🧵 24013
Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 02/10/20264/ As humanitarian vulnerabilities deepen and alternatives to occupation governance diminish, humanitarian decline and Russian occupation rule become mutually reinforcing. 1578
Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 02/10/20263/ Rather than reversing these conditions, Russian occupation authorities appear to govern through them, leveraging residents’ increasing dependence on occupation-controlled services, institutions, and administrative systems to sustain control. 1578
Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 02/10/20262/ Oleshky has become a test case for Russian rule in an area marked by depopulation, damaged infrastructure, chronic insecurity, and growing isolation from the rest of Ukraine. 2447
Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 02/10/2026The ongoing humanitarian crisis in the occupied Oleshky area reflects the coercive logic of Russian occupation governance in a heavily damaged frontline city. (1/4) Read the full report: isw.pub/OleshkyCrisi... 411339
Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 02/10/20266/ Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against military assets and oil infrastructure in Russia. Russia launched 107 drones against Ukraine overnight on September 30 to October 1 and 97 drones during the day on October 1. Read the report here: isw.pub/UkrWar100126 0693
Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 02/10/20265/ Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on October 1 that Ukrainian forces used the new FP-7 tactical ballistic missile for the first time to strike an unspecific target. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Lyman tactical area. 110013
Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 02/10/20264/ Russian forces struck the Southern Bridge in Kyiv City as part of their campaign to destroy the Ukrainian economy & to make life difficult in the Ukrainian capital. Russian forces may leverage shaped charges on their long-range drones to strike large, reinforced targets like the Southern Bridge. 1509
Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 02/10/20263/ RU forces lost control of almost 300 km2 between March & Sept 2026, a period including UA’s successful Operation Vivaldi, which liberated 147+ km2 over many months. RU forces likely at best gained no ground in exchange for 46k+ casualties in Sept 2026 – the highest monthly Ru loss rate IN 2026. 17213