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The real impasta @therealimpasta.bsky.social · 2h

I wish it were possible to poll in Spanish. Unfortunately it can't be done

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The real impasta @therealimpasta.bsky.social · 2h

Still worse than Biden though. But it was interesting that they didn't keep drifting further right.

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The real impasta @therealimpasta.bsky.social · 2h

Harris actually did noticeably better with Cubans than Crist and Demings

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The real impasta @therealimpasta.bsky.social · 8h

Duval will drop early. Nixon is from there. Will tell us a lot imo

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The real impasta @therealimpasta.bsky.social · 9h

I thought it was 60-38 at first and was like okay well that's bad but not new and then I read it again

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The real impasta @therealimpasta.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Right but if the generic ballot is D+9 in NY-18 (Harris +3) then I don't see why this is a concern

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The real impasta @therealimpasta.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

D+9 in an upstate district that only barely voted for Harris seems okay to me

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The real impasta @therealimpasta.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Why was Long Island sorta blue for three decades? Seems weird given how ridiculously conservative their beliefs are

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The real impasta @therealimpasta.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Long Islanders think democrats made crime legal and they won't be convinced otherwise

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The real impasta @therealimpasta.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

The extremely limited evidence we have so far points to NYC attracting new people who are democrats, but everything else in the state looks insanely bad

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The real impasta @therealimpasta.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

It raises the possibility that the national environment has suddenly moved towards Rs vs the marist polls last week

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The real impasta @therealimpasta.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Right that's the unweighted N, they're weighing to a Trump +12 electorate

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The real impasta @therealimpasta.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

It's weighed to be Trump +2. I get it, cautious in a midwest state where polls softly whiffed in 2024

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The real impasta @therealimpasta.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Also it's only Benson +3 in the gov race

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The real impasta @therealimpasta.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Nope! Only MI. I suppose it's possible Rs are super motivated to vote against El-Sayed?

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The real impasta @therealimpasta.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Is it a good poll for Troy in your opinion? I feel like it is

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The real impasta @therealimpasta.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

And we're still never gonna see (D-ME)

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The real impasta @therealimpasta.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

The way in which he is losing is identical to how Harris lost too

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The real impasta @therealimpasta.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

He's collapsing with his northeastern base of support. More than offsets his relative strength in the usually right wing capital

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The real impasta @therealimpasta.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

It's gonna go to round 2 but yeah not good

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The real impasta @therealimpasta.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

The most reported states so far are all in the south and southeast where bolso's base is... but even then I don't like this

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The real impasta @therealimpasta.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Yeah it's not looking good. Caveat that the northeast always lags on reporting but yeah

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The real impasta @therealimpasta.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Raw numbers i calculated from the gender table are 576 Troy 560 Susan

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The real impasta @therealimpasta.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

1.4 based on the fact that the sample is 52.5% women and 47.5% men in weighted numbers, and women break D+10 while men are R+8

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The real impasta @therealimpasta.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

I think with Collins in particular pollsters all have PTSD from the 2020 miss and so are doing whatever they can to get good results for her

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The real impasta @therealimpasta.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

I ran some rough calculations and it does appear that Jackson is the one in the technical "lead" here

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The real impasta @therealimpasta.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Though with Jackson running way behind Pingree I'm kind of ready to say we are FUCKED

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The real impasta @therealimpasta.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

No it's lv it's just that it's D+0 partisan lean which is strange

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The real impasta @therealimpasta.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Yeah no you're right I'm being really condescending for no reason, sorry.

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The real impasta @therealimpasta.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

He was supposed to make everything the same price it was in 2019 in the voters' minds

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The real impasta @therealimpasta.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

For the record I still think it's likely R and that Cubans will go republican, i just never see Cubans defending any democrat in the wild

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The real impasta @therealimpasta.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

I saw literal, actual Cuban boomers on Facebook defending her earlier this week (no screenshots but you can find them in any comment section) so yeah

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The real impasta @therealimpasta.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Oh right, pinniped murder. I forgot about that

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