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Dan Falkenheim

@thefalkon.bsky.social
736 followers 418 following 245 posts

Fact Checker and super googler at Sports Illustrated | mainly WNBA & women's hoops | Currently working on MS in Analytics @ Georgia Tech | Most of the time thinking about LOTR, sci-fi and film

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Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
What's the value of a WNBA player's individual production? Enter Statistical Plus-Minus. It estimates impact by weighing different contributions from a player's stat line. SPM is more stable than RAPM, and it often produces more sensible rankings. Ranks + methodology below 👇
A data visualization showing the top 10 leaders in WNBA Statistical Plus-Minus. The order is as follows: 1. A'ja Wilson (+3.22), 2. Veronica Burton (+2.29), 3. Kelsey Mitchell (+2.28), 4. Caitlin Clark (+2.18), 5. Paige Bueckers (+2.08), 6. Aliyah Boston (+2.05), 7. Breanna Stewart (+2.05), 8. Jackie Young (+2.05), 9. Olivia Miles (+1.83), 10. Kayla McBride (+1.77)

The gap between A'ja Wilson and second place (0.93) is almost double the gap between second place and 10th place (0.52)
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Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
With the playoffs fast approaching, let’s check in on the eighth-seeded Liberty. Where do their players shoot more or less often than the league average? For the first time in Jonquel Jones's career, fewer than half of her shots (47.0%) are coming in the paint.
A data visualization showing where each player on the Liberty shoots more (red zones) or less (blue zones) often compared to league average. Fewer than 50% Jonquel Jones's shots have come at the rim, while players like Pauline Astier and Rebekah Gardner bring rim pressure.
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Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Animating a team's defensive shape as a convex hull using SkillCorner's Spanish Liga ACB open tracking data. kudos to @skillcorner.bsky.social for making this public. it's a great opportunity for people to get hands-on experience with tracking data!
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Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Where do Phoenix Mercury players shoot more or less often vs. league average? Alyssa Thomas and Natasha Mack stand out for their shot frequency in the paint. Kahleah Copper's shot profile is relatively even compared to the rest of the league Chart excludes players on new teams.
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Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Where do Los Angeles Sparks players shoot more or less often vs. league average? The Sparks guards don't rack up a ton of attempts near the rim, but Dearica Hamby and Rae Burrell help make up for that.
A visualization showing where Sparks players take shots more (red zones) or less (blue zones) often compared to league average. Dearica Hamby and Rae Burrell take a high rate of shots near the rim. On the whole, the Sparks are relatively balanced and avoid long twos. Monique Akoa Makani's chart includes her shots from her time with the Mercury.
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Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
One-year WNBA RAPM is noisy. Can encoding prior information, without using box score inputs, help? Yes. Prior-Informed RAPM closes about half of the predictive gap with three-year RAPM, while estimates stay rooted in current season play. Ranks and details below 👇
A visualization showing the top 10 and bottom 10 WNBA players by prior-informed RAPM in 2026. Vernoica Burton, A'ja Wilson, Jackie Young, Natasha Howard and Aliyah Boston rank as the five most impactful players by prior-informed RAPM. Prior-Informed RAPM uses a three-year RAPM prior and trains on a one-season horizon.
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Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Where do Seattle Storm players shoot more or less often compared to league average? Their guards like to get to the paint and near the rim, and their bigs don't shy away from above the break threes.
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Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Where do Connecticut Sun players shoot more or less often vs. league average? No surprise: Their bigs live in the paint, and their guards aren't afraid to shoot the midrange shot.
A visualization that shows each Connecticut Sun player's shot frequency heatmap. Red zones indicate where a player shoots more often compared to league average; blue zones indicate where a player shoots less often than league average. In general, the Sun's frontcourt players take a high rate of shots in the paint.
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Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
Paige Bueckers loves to attack the midrange, particularly on her right side. (The Dallas Wings' empty-side actions might play a part in this, too.) She currently leads the league in right-side midrange field goal attempts, with 25 more attempts than Courtney Williams in that zone.
A relative shot frequency heatmap that shows where Paige Bueckers shoots more or less frequently compared to other guards in the WNBA. In general, Bueckers shoots more frequently in the right mid-range and at the top of the key. She shoots less frequently near the rim and from the left wing beyond the arc.
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Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
How has every WNBA team stacked up efficiency-wise across different play contexts since July 1? Quietly, the Portland Fire have had one of the league's better half-court offenses. The New York Liberty's half-court defense has also cratered without Leonie Fiebich and Satou Sabally.
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Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Sports Illustrated is hiring (!) for a women's sports (particularly women's hoops)-focused Staff Writer. I'm biased, but this is a really excellent opportunity to drive our coverage in the magazine, on the website and across social platforms. Come work with us 🙂 www.comeet.com/jobs/minutem...
comeet.com
Job opportunity: Staff Writer, Sports Illustrated at Minute Media
Sports Illustrated (SI) is the trusted voice for a changing sports landscape. With 70 years of excellence in sports journalism under its belt, SI is the essential destination for fans looking for expe...
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Richard Cohen @richardcohen.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
By the way, for anyone interested in the full numbers behind what I mentioned on the podcast yesterday - These are the records of the eight playoff teams against the bottom seven in the league: 17-3 13-2 13-3 14-2 14-3 13-5 14-1 10-4 Top group vs bottom group has been a bloodbath. #WNBA
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Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
A “kill” occurs when the defense prevents the offense from scoring on three straight possessions. College programs have tracked kills for well over a decade, so let's do the same for the WNBA. Here are the league's leaders in kills per 100 defensive possessions:
A table showing how each team ranks by stop and kill rate. The Valkyries generate more kills than any team in the league.
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Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 02/08/2026
L.A. short-circuited a potential rebuild by trading for Kelsey Plum ahead of the 2025 season, and now it's back to where it began. For @sportsillustrated.bsky.social, I chronicled how the Sparks reached this point and what the future looks like from here: www.si.com/wnba/with-ke...
si.com
With Kelsey Plum Traded to Mercury, Sparks Have to Start Over Yet Again
Los Angeles short-circuited a potential rebuild by trading for Plum ahead of the 2025 season, and now it's back to where it began.
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Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
If you're looking for local Minnesota LGBTQ+ organizations to support ahead of tomorrow's Lynx game, consider: RECLAIM: www.reclaim.care TIGERRS: tigerrs.org Queermunity: queermunitymn.com Feel free to add more!
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Julia Poe @juliapoe.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
DiJonai Carrington says she will be a game day decision for the foreseeable future. Could make her debut for the Sky as early as tomorrow’s game against Connecticut.
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Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Who has been the WNBA’s most clutch player this year? To answer that, I built and tested a win probability model, then measured how much each player shifts their team’s odds of winning late in close games. Sabrina Ionescu comes out on top. Here’s what goes into the numbers 👇
A table showing the top 10 WNBA players by Win Probability Added (WPA) per 5 clutch minutes. (Minimum 25 clutch minutes played.) Clutch time uses the WNBA's definition and occurs during the final five minutes of a game when the score is within five points. WPA includes shot attempts, free throws, turnovers, assists, rebounds, steals, blocks, fouls drawn and fouls committed.
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Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
"Our ancestors created it for the simple reason that anything else would have been too easy for them; in their megalomania they thought to make the very sand beneath their feet intelligent. Quite pointless, for there is absolutely no way to improve on perfection.“ — Stanislaw Lem, The Cyberiad
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Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
We're officially at the All-Star break! With more than half the season in the books, here is how every team stacks up efficiency-wise across different play contexts:
A table showing how each WNBA ranks in offensive efficiency across different play contexts. Half court: A play that occurs once the opponent's defense is set after a change in possession; Transition: A play that occurs before the opponent has set their half-court defense after a change in possession; Scramble: A play that occurs soon after an offensive rebound, before the offense and the defense reset.
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Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
The last time the Liberty lost eight times in a 10 game stretch was July 29, 2022. (New York did that twice that season, per @wbbtimeline.bsky.social) They've never had a span quite like this in the Stewart-Ionescu-JJ era.
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Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
finished reading The Fortunate Fall by Cameron Reed—a queer cyberpunk story with meditations on embodiment. it's a punch in the gut. #booksky
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Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
With the WNBA season past its halfway mark (yes, you read that right!), here's how each team ranks in offensive and defensive efficiency in different play contexts: 🏀 Lynx, Aces, Fever and Wings are the top four half-court offenses 🔒 The Valkyries now have the top half-court defense in the league.
A table showing WNBA team offensive efficiency across different play contexts. Half court is defined as play that occurs once the opponent’s defense is set (or organized) following a change in possession; transition is defined as a play that occurs before the opponent has set its half-court defense following a change in possession; scramble is defined as a play that occurs following an offensive rebound, before the offense and the defense reset. Scramble plays don’t include all second-chance opportunities, and do include plays like quick kickout threes.
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Billy Fryer @billyfryer42.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
Super fun article by @thefalkon.bsky.social about transition offense and defense in the WNBA. We had a great conversation of how our staff at Indy defined transition when I was there which is awesome to see incorporated. Dan’s been publishing great WNBA analysis; give it a look!
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Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
Cleaning the Glass splits plays into half-court, transition and putback contexts. Those same easy-to-understand numbers haven't been publicly available in the same way for the WNBA. So, let's fix that. Introducing Cleaning the Glass-style contextual stats for the WNBA!
A table showing the each WNBA team's offensive efficiency in half-court, scramble and transition contexts. The Lynx are the top half-court team (1.00 points per play), the Aces are the top scramble/putback team (1.46 points per play), and the Tempo and Dream are tied as the top transition teams (1.17 points per play). Garbage time and heaves are filtered out.
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Sports Illustrated Union @siunion.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
An update from the SI Union:
A navy blue card with a white header, providing an update from the SI Union. The text says: A LITTLE OVER a week ago, Sports Illustrated management laid off nine of our members, including three colleagues who had been with SI for over a decade and our entire golf vertical.
This devastating action came less than a month after we ratified a new contract with SI's current operator, Minute Media. We were pleased to reach a three-year deal that raised wages, improved medical benefits and parental leave, protected against AI's creep into our work, preserved our remote work flexibility and much more.
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Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
What are the least and most efficient shooting locations in the WNBA? Here is every 3×3 shooting zone for 2025. Each square is colored based on its points per true shot, which is the average points scored for every shot attempt (makes, misses and shooting fouls) from that spot.
A heatmap plotted on a WNBA court showing the most efficient shot locations during the 2025 season. Each plotted square is a 3x3 foot square that contains a minimum of 75 shots, and it's colored by its relative efficiency. Squares closest to the rim are the most efficient shot locations, followed by those close to the three-point line and shots ~4-6 feet from the hoop.
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Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
Getting very into the weeds here: Home vs. away rim attempt rates aren't a clean counterfactual, but the splits might (?) be a rough signal of venue-level effects on how shot locations get encoded. Most teams are within ~5%. Valkyries and Aces are definitely beyond that.
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Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 31/05/2026
Leïla Lacan returns and immediately shows why she's one of the WNBA's top rising point guards. Her impact is so apparent on both ends of the floor. With the way Aneesah Morrow has started the season—and BG + Olivia Nelson-Ododa back in the fold—the Sun can be pesky.
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Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 30/05/2026
Say goodbye to the two-hour WNBA game? On average, it's taken 128.2 minutes to get from the opening tip to the final buzzer in 2026. It's never taken longer to complete a game during the first four weeks of the season. More fouls ➡️ Longer, choppier games
A line plot showing season year on the x-axis and average elapsed minutes from opening tip to final buzzer on the y-axis. Average elapsed game time has grown to 128.2 minutes in 2026, which is the longest it's ever taken to complete games in the first 30 days of a season. The graph also shows that average elapsed game time crept past two hours in 2023 with the introduction of the coach's challenge.
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Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
Technical companion is now live! It covers: - design matrix construction - APM/RAPM formulation - breakdown of implementation choices - validation setup + evaluation metrics - results across one/three/five-year windows - full RAPM ratings for 2025 www.danfalkenheim.com/RAPM/adaptin...
danfalkenheim.com
Adapting RAPM for the WNBA
A rigorously validated framework for adapting Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM) to the WNBA. Technical companion to my SI.com overview.
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Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
Can a WNBA-tailored RAPM model provide similar predictive power compared with its NBA counterpart? If so, how should it be built? The answer to the first is yes. Following Joe Sill's methodology, I built and tested a WNBA version of RAPM. Here's what I found.
A chart showing the top 10 and bottom 10 WNBA players by RAPM in 2025. RAPM is not a definitive measure of player value or skill. It is best seen as a lineup-adjusted estimate of player impact, subject to noise.

The top five includes A'ja Wilson, Naz Hillmon, Skylar Diggins, Breanna Stewart and Leila Lacan. The bottom five includes Diamond Miller, Kiah Stokes, Alysha Clark, Julie Vanloo and Jacy Sheldon.
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Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
In 46 days, the WNBA ratified a CBA, held an expansion draft, opened free agency, held a rookie draft, started training camps, played preseason games, and will now, finally, begin the 2026 season We broke down each WNBA team and how they changed ahead of the 2026 season: www.si.com/wnba/everyth...
si.com
Everything to Know About Each WNBA Team Ahead of the 2026 Season
After a whirlwind offseason that was condensed into just a few weeks, it was hard to keep track of everything that happened. Here’s a five-minute guide to every
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Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
at the dollar amount other players have signed for, this may be the best value signing of the offseason so far. Natasha Mack is a better/more important player than what simple box score numbers would indicate.
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Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
wnba offseason grades are up after the draft and the initial wave of free agency! some grades are tricky. the storm did really well in the draft but endured a massive exodus of talent. sun had a good draft, too, but the vision is long-term. www.si.com/wnba/wnba-of...
si.com
WNBA Offseason Grades: How Each Team Fares After 2026 Draft, Early Free Agency
It’s been a whirlwind week in the league, with a bunch of new-look rosters. Let’s assess how each front office has done so far.
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John Edwards @johnbedwards.io · 07/04/2026
i couldn't come close to beating @thefalkon.bsky.social this year but still finished with a respectable 🥈 in the kaggle march madness competition! 144th out of 3,483 teams this year with no gambling involved
A screenshot of a kaggle.com leaderboard, showing John's as the 144th ranked submission
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Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
predictions of integrity? juuuuust missed out on the top eight, but I'm very happy with the score my models acheived. (No gambling or hand-modifying of predictions) congrats to everyone else!
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Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
"The Sky are known as a cheap franchise because Alter is a cheap owner. This season will be the first in which players don’t share locker room space with anyone who can afford the $49 monthly membership at Sachs Recreation Center" great column by Julia that gets into the rift in Chicago:
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Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 06/04/2026
The Angel Reese trade exposes the Sky's central flaw: they mismanage their most valuable assets—their players. More on today's deal and Sky's history of failing to retain and build around their stars: www.si.com/wnba/angel-r...
si.com
The Angel Reese Trade Is the Sky’s Latest Blunder
Chicago’s history of mismanaging assets shows a clear pattern of incompetence when it comes to prioritizing players.
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Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
At SI, we ranked the top 68 players who will be competing in the women's NCAA tournament. These are the names to know in March. (many thanks to @emmabaccellieri.bsky.social, @blakesilverman.bsky.social, Tim Capurso and Kristen Nelson for their help with this project!) www.si.com/college-bask...
si.com
Ranking the Best 68 Women’s Basketball Players in the March Madness Field
From impressive freshmen to top 2026 WNBA draft prospects, this year’s NCAA tournament will have highlight-worthy talent.
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Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
Did Veronica Burton beat Courtney Williams that bad? Burton's win was the fastest Unrivaled 1-on-1 tournament victory for any non-finals game.
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Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
With the Unrivaled 1-on-1 Tournament starting today, I broke down the best storylines, the top scorers heading in, what's changed since last year and more for @sportsillustrated.bsky.social: (there's a table ranking the top 10 players by points per possession, too!) www.si.com/wnba/everyth...
si.com
Everything to Know About Unrivaled’s 1-on-1 Tournament
Before the action gets underway, find out the top storylines, what’s at stake and how to watch Unrivaled’s popular three-day tournament.
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Dude Process @noplansjustvibes.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
A+ ad placement on ESPN’s trade tracker
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Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
Who are the highest usage and most efficient players in Unrivaled? Paige Bueckers is coming close to taking Chelsea Gray's efficiency crown.
Scatter plot showing usage percentage on the x-axis and points per true shot on the y-axis. True shots are defined as a field goal attempt or a free throw attempt resulting from a shooting foul. Usage is calculated as a player's true shots plus turnovers, divided by their number of offensive possessions. Chelsea Gray and Paige Bueckers are the highest efficiency players as of February 3rd.
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Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
2015 Warriors Elevator Screen, with tracking data! (This was the last of Brandon Rush's 14 third quarter points in a win against the Kings)
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Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 29/01/2026
ICYMI: Assessing which team has the best three-player lineup in Unrivaled should be an easy task. The league doesn't publish lineup stats, though, so I went ahead and pulled the data. I ranked each team's best lineup, sorted by net rating: www.si.com/ranking-top-...
si.com
Ranking the Top Lineups in Unrivaled for the 2026 Season
Unrivaled provides a clean laboratory for measuring the successes—and failures—of certain lineups. Unlike its five-on-five counterpart, three-on-three basketbal
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Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
Which Unrivaled team has the best three-player lineup? Lineup stats aren't available ... until now! For @sportsillustrated.bsky.social, I parsed play-by-play and possession data, and ranked each team's best lineup by net rating. Full table at the bottom of the story! www.si.com/ranking-top-...
si.com
Ranking the Top Lineups in Unrivaled for the 2026 Season
Unrivaled provides a clean laboratory for measuring the successes—and failures—of certain lineups. Unlike its five-on-five counterpart, three-on-three basketbal
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Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
Spun through the best games to watch for the women's college basketball week 11 slate, which will kick off in full force tomorrow night when TCU goes on the road to face a gritty West Virginia team: www.si.com/college-bask...
si.com
Best Games to Watch of the Women’s College Basketball Week 11 Slate
SEC heavyweights and a high-end ACC matchup highlight the must-watch matchups on the schedule.
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Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
For the @sumersports.bsky.social x Shrine Bowl Analytics Competition, I built an automated pipeline to detect OL vs. DL reps from player tracking data, engineer contact-onset features and create metrics for evaluating interior line play. Details below!
9x9 patchwork grid of a random frame from 81 different OL-DL 1v1 reps
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Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 10/11/2025
Week 2 of college women's hoops action starts with an incredible UCLA vs. Oklahoma matchup. It's one of the games I'm most looking forward to watching this week: www.si.com/college-bask...
si.com
Best Games to Watch in Week 2 of the Women’s College Basketball Season
A big-on-big showdown with Oklahoma and UCLA, a March Madness rematch and several other ranked matchups await in the second week of the season.
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Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 03/11/2025
Women's college hoops is back 🥳 I previewed some of the best games to watch for the first week of action for @sportsillustrated.bsky.social. Looking forward to Creighton vs. South Dakota State tonight and Texas vs. Richmond this week! www.si.com/college-bask...
si.com
Best Games to Watch in Week 1 of the Women’s College Basketball Season
March-worthy matchups in November? From mid-major statement games to Top 25 showdowns, the opening week of women’s hoops shouldn’t disappoint.
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