Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 29/09/2026What's the value of a WNBA player's individual production? Enter Statistical Plus-Minus. It estimates impact by weighing different contributions from a player's stat line. SPM is more stable than RAPM, and it often produces more sensible rankings. Ranks + methodology below 👇 210
Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 22/09/2026With the playoffs fast approaching, let’s check in on the eighth-seeded Liberty. Where do their players shoot more or less often than the league average? For the first time in Jonquel Jones's career, fewer than half of her shots (47.0%) are coming in the paint. 030
Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 17/09/2026Animating a team's defensive shape as a convex hull using SkillCorner's Spanish Liga ACB open tracking data. kudos to @skillcorner.bsky.social for making this public. it's a great opportunity for people to get hands-on experience with tracking data! 020
Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 17/09/2026Where do Phoenix Mercury players shoot more or less often vs. league average? Alyssa Thomas and Natasha Mack stand out for their shot frequency in the paint. Kahleah Copper's shot profile is relatively even compared to the rest of the league Chart excludes players on new teams. 010
Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 15/09/2026Where do Los Angeles Sparks players shoot more or less often vs. league average? The Sparks guards don't rack up a ton of attempts near the rim, but Dearica Hamby and Rae Burrell help make up for that. 040
Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 03/09/2026One-year WNBA RAPM is noisy. Can encoding prior information, without using box score inputs, help? Yes. Prior-Informed RAPM closes about half of the predictive gap with three-year RAPM, while estimates stay rooted in current season play. Ranks and details below 👇 162
Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 02/09/2026Where do Seattle Storm players shoot more or less often compared to league average? Their guards like to get to the paint and near the rim, and their bigs don't shy away from above the break threes. 030
Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 01/09/2026Where do Connecticut Sun players shoot more or less often vs. league average? No surprise: Their bigs live in the paint, and their guards aren't afraid to shoot the midrange shot. 030
Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 22/08/2026Paige Bueckers loves to attack the midrange, particularly on her right side. (The Dallas Wings' empty-side actions might play a part in this, too.) She currently leads the league in right-side midrange field goal attempts, with 25 more attempts than Courtney Williams in that zone. 070
Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 21/08/2026How has every WNBA team stacked up efficiency-wise across different play contexts since July 1? Quietly, the Portland Fire have had one of the league's better half-court offenses. The New York Liberty's half-court defense has also cratered without Leonie Fiebich and Satou Sabally. 110
Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 19/08/2026Sports Illustrated is hiring (!) for a women's sports (particularly women's hoops)-focused Staff Writer. I'm biased, but this is a really excellent opportunity to drive our coverage in the magazine, on the website and across social platforms. Come work with us 🙂 www.comeet.com/jobs/minutem...comeet.comJob opportunity: Staff Writer, Sports Illustrated at Minute MediaSports Illustrated (SI) is the trusted voice for a changing sports landscape. With 70 years of excellence in sports journalism under its belt, SI is the essential destination for fans looking for expe... 084
Reposted by Dan FalkenheimRichard Cohen @richardcohen.bsky.social · 15/08/2026By the way, for anyone interested in the full numbers behind what I mentioned on the podcast yesterday - These are the records of the eight playoff teams against the bottom seven in the league: 17-3 13-2 13-3 14-2 14-3 13-5 14-1 10-4 Top group vs bottom group has been a bloodbath. #WNBA 2308
Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 03/08/2026A “kill” occurs when the defense prevents the offense from scoring on three straight possessions. College programs have tracked kills for well over a decade, so let's do the same for the WNBA. Here are the league's leaders in kills per 100 defensive possessions: 3112
Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 02/08/2026L.A. short-circuited a potential rebuild by trading for Kelsey Plum ahead of the 2025 season, and now it's back to where it began. For @sportsillustrated.bsky.social, I chronicled how the Sparks reached this point and what the future looks like from here: www.si.com/wnba/with-ke...si.comWith Kelsey Plum Traded to Mercury, Sparks Have to Start Over Yet AgainLos Angeles short-circuited a potential rebuild by trading for Plum ahead of the 2025 season, and now it's back to where it began. 021
Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 01/08/2026If you're looking for local Minnesota LGBTQ+ organizations to support ahead of tomorrow's Lynx game, consider: RECLAIM: www.reclaim.care TIGERRS: tigerrs.org Queermunity: queermunitymn.com Feel free to add more! 040
Reposted by Dan FalkenheimJulia Poe @juliapoe.bsky.social · 29/07/2026DiJonai Carrington says she will be a game day decision for the foreseeable future. Could make her debut for the Sky as early as tomorrow’s game against Connecticut. 0477
Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 28/07/2026Who has been the WNBA’s most clutch player this year? To answer that, I built and tested a win probability model, then measured how much each player shifts their team’s odds of winning late in close games. Sabrina Ionescu comes out on top. Here’s what goes into the numbers 👇 231
Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 28/07/2026"Our ancestors created it for the simple reason that anything else would have been too easy for them; in their megalomania they thought to make the very sand beneath their feet intelligent. Quite pointless, for there is absolutely no way to improve on perfection.“ — Stanislaw Lem, The Cyberiad 110
Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 23/07/2026We're officially at the All-Star break! With more than half the season in the books, here is how every team stacks up efficiency-wise across different play contexts: 251
Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 19/07/2026The last time the Liberty lost eight times in a 10 game stretch was July 29, 2022. (New York did that twice that season, per @wbbtimeline.bsky.social) They've never had a span quite like this in the Stewart-Ionescu-JJ era. 000
Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 19/07/2026finished reading The Fortunate Fall by Cameron Reed—a queer cyberpunk story with meditations on embodiment. it's a punch in the gut. #booksky 081
Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 16/07/2026With the WNBA season past its halfway mark (yes, you read that right!), here's how each team ranks in offensive and defensive efficiency in different play contexts: 🏀 Lynx, Aces, Fever and Wings are the top four half-court offenses 🔒 The Valkyries now have the top half-court defense in the league. 280
Reposted by Dan FalkenheimBilly Fryer @billyfryer42.bsky.social · 17/06/2026Super fun article by @thefalkon.bsky.social about transition offense and defense in the WNBA. We had a great conversation of how our staff at Indy defined transition when I was there which is awesome to see incorporated. Dan’s been publishing great WNBA analysis; give it a look! 021
Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 17/06/2026Cleaning the Glass splits plays into half-court, transition and putback contexts. Those same easy-to-understand numbers haven't been publicly available in the same way for the WNBA. So, let's fix that. Introducing Cleaning the Glass-style contextual stats for the WNBA! 4101
Reposted by Dan FalkenheimSports Illustrated Union @siunion.bsky.social · 10/06/2026An update from the SI Union: 15729
Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 05/06/2026What are the least and most efficient shooting locations in the WNBA? Here is every 3×3 shooting zone for 2025. Each square is colored based on its points per true shot, which is the average points scored for every shot attempt (makes, misses and shooting fouls) from that spot. 191
Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 01/06/2026Getting very into the weeds here: Home vs. away rim attempt rates aren't a clean counterfactual, but the splits might (?) be a rough signal of venue-level effects on how shot locations get encoded. Most teams are within ~5%. Valkyries and Aces are definitely beyond that. 240
Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 31/05/2026Leïla Lacan returns and immediately shows why she's one of the WNBA's top rising point guards. Her impact is so apparent on both ends of the floor. With the way Aneesah Morrow has started the season—and BG + Olivia Nelson-Ododa back in the fold—the Sun can be pesky. 080
Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 30/05/2026Say goodbye to the two-hour WNBA game? On average, it's taken 128.2 minutes to get from the opening tip to the final buzzer in 2026. It's never taken longer to complete a game during the first four weeks of the season. More fouls ➡️ Longer, choppier games 172
Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 14/05/2026Technical companion is now live! It covers: - design matrix construction - APM/RAPM formulation - breakdown of implementation choices - validation setup + evaluation metrics - results across one/three/five-year windows - full RAPM ratings for 2025 www.danfalkenheim.com/RAPM/adaptin...danfalkenheim.comAdapting RAPM for the WNBAA rigorously validated framework for adapting Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM) to the WNBA. Technical companion to my SI.com overview. 120
Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 13/05/2026Can a WNBA-tailored RAPM model provide similar predictive power compared with its NBA counterpart? If so, how should it be built? The answer to the first is yes. Following Joe Sill's methodology, I built and tested a WNBA version of RAPM. Here's what I found. 4137
Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 08/05/2026In 46 days, the WNBA ratified a CBA, held an expansion draft, opened free agency, held a rookie draft, started training camps, played preseason games, and will now, finally, begin the 2026 season We broke down each WNBA team and how they changed ahead of the 2026 season: www.si.com/wnba/everyth...si.comEverything to Know About Each WNBA Team Ahead of the 2026 SeasonAfter a whirlwind offseason that was condensed into just a few weeks, it was hard to keep track of everything that happened. Here’s a five-minute guide to every 100
Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 15/04/2026at the dollar amount other players have signed for, this may be the best value signing of the offseason so far. Natasha Mack is a better/more important player than what simple box score numbers would indicate. 100
Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 14/04/2026wnba offseason grades are up after the draft and the initial wave of free agency! some grades are tricky. the storm did really well in the draft but endured a massive exodus of talent. sun had a good draft, too, but the vision is long-term. www.si.com/wnba/wnba-of...si.comWNBA Offseason Grades: How Each Team Fares After 2026 Draft, Early Free AgencyIt’s been a whirlwind week in the league, with a bunch of new-look rosters. Let’s assess how each front office has done so far. 110
Reposted by Dan FalkenheimJohn Edwards @johnbedwards.io · 07/04/2026i couldn't come close to beating @thefalkon.bsky.social this year but still finished with a respectable 🥈 in the kaggle march madness competition! 144th out of 3,483 teams this year with no gambling involved 031
Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 07/04/2026predictions of integrity? juuuuust missed out on the top eight, but I'm very happy with the score my models acheived. (No gambling or hand-modifying of predictions) congrats to everyone else! 000
Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 07/04/2026"The Sky are known as a cheap franchise because Alter is a cheap owner. This season will be the first in which players don’t share locker room space with anyone who can afford the $49 monthly membership at Sachs Recreation Center" great column by Julia that gets into the rift in Chicago: 020
Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 06/04/2026The Angel Reese trade exposes the Sky's central flaw: they mismanage their most valuable assets—their players. More on today's deal and Sky's history of failing to retain and build around their stars: www.si.com/wnba/angel-r...si.comThe Angel Reese Trade Is the Sky’s Latest BlunderChicago’s history of mismanaging assets shows a clear pattern of incompetence when it comes to prioritizing players. 1176
Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 18/03/2026At SI, we ranked the top 68 players who will be competing in the women's NCAA tournament. These are the names to know in March. (many thanks to @emmabaccellieri.bsky.social, @blakesilverman.bsky.social, Tim Capurso and Kristen Nelson for their help with this project!) www.si.com/college-bask...si.comRanking the Best 68 Women’s Basketball Players in the March Madness FieldFrom impressive freshmen to top 2026 WNBA draft prospects, this year’s NCAA tournament will have highlight-worthy talent. 111
Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 12/02/2026Did Veronica Burton beat Courtney Williams that bad? Burton's win was the fastest Unrivaled 1-on-1 tournament victory for any non-finals game. 120
Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 11/02/2026With the Unrivaled 1-on-1 Tournament starting today, I broke down the best storylines, the top scorers heading in, what's changed since last year and more for @sportsillustrated.bsky.social: (there's a table ranking the top 10 players by points per possession, too!) www.si.com/wnba/everyth...si.comEverything to Know About Unrivaled’s 1-on-1 TournamentBefore the action gets underway, find out the top storylines, what’s at stake and how to watch Unrivaled’s popular three-day tournament. 000
Reposted by Dan FalkenheimDude Process @noplansjustvibes.bsky.social · 04/02/2026A+ ad placement on ESPN’s trade tracker 333055534
Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 04/02/2026Who are the highest usage and most efficient players in Unrivaled? Paige Bueckers is coming close to taking Chelsea Gray's efficiency crown. 284
Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 30/01/20262015 Warriors Elevator Screen, with tracking data! (This was the last of Brandon Rush's 14 third quarter points in a win against the Kings) 000
Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 29/01/2026ICYMI: Assessing which team has the best three-player lineup in Unrivaled should be an easy task. The league doesn't publish lineup stats, though, so I went ahead and pulled the data. I ranked each team's best lineup, sorted by net rating: www.si.com/ranking-top-...si.comRanking the Top Lineups in Unrivaled for the 2026 SeasonUnrivaled provides a clean laboratory for measuring the successes—and failures—of certain lineups. Unlike its five-on-five counterpart, three-on-three basketbal 100
Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 28/01/2026Which Unrivaled team has the best three-player lineup? Lineup stats aren't available ... until now! For @sportsillustrated.bsky.social, I parsed play-by-play and possession data, and ranked each team's best lineup by net rating. Full table at the bottom of the story! www.si.com/ranking-top-...si.comRanking the Top Lineups in Unrivaled for the 2026 SeasonUnrivaled provides a clean laboratory for measuring the successes—and failures—of certain lineups. Unlike its five-on-five counterpart, three-on-three basketbal 000
Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 13/01/2026Spun through the best games to watch for the women's college basketball week 11 slate, which will kick off in full force tomorrow night when TCU goes on the road to face a gritty West Virginia team: www.si.com/college-bask...si.comBest Games to Watch of the Women’s College Basketball Week 11 SlateSEC heavyweights and a high-end ACC matchup highlight the must-watch matchups on the schedule. 010
Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 12/01/2026For the @sumersports.bsky.social x Shrine Bowl Analytics Competition, I built an automated pipeline to detect OL vs. DL reps from player tracking data, engineer contact-onset features and create metrics for evaluating interior line play. Details below! 100
Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 10/11/2025Week 2 of college women's hoops action starts with an incredible UCLA vs. Oklahoma matchup. It's one of the games I'm most looking forward to watching this week: www.si.com/college-bask...si.comBest Games to Watch in Week 2 of the Women’s College Basketball SeasonA big-on-big showdown with Oklahoma and UCLA, a March Madness rematch and several other ranked matchups await in the second week of the season. 000
Dan Falkenheim @thefalkon.bsky.social · 03/11/2025Women's college hoops is back 🥳 I previewed some of the best games to watch for the first week of action for @sportsillustrated.bsky.social. Looking forward to Creighton vs. South Dakota State tonight and Texas vs. Richmond this week! www.si.com/college-bask...si.comBest Games to Watch in Week 1 of the Women’s College Basketball SeasonMarch-worthy matchups in November? From mid-major statement games to Top 25 showdowns, the opening week of women’s hoops shouldn’t disappoint. 000