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But here's perhaps the most compelling stat: across the 13 states with a critical mass of early/mail votes cast so far, Hispanic turnout is outpacing 2024 levels, and not by a small amount. More Hispanic voters have voted than did at this point, despite '24 being a presidential.

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Drilling down a little deeper into Hispanic turnout, in 94% of counties nationwide Hispanics are accounting for a larger share of votes cast than they did in 2022.

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Some of the most notable increases in voters of color early vote share, relative to '22 include fairly large Hispanic increases almost everywhere. Black voters have increased their share of the PA vote by an astounding 9 points. AAPI voters w/big numbers in NY and NJ.

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Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

23 days out from election day, the most notable trend emerging from the early vote is large turnout increases among voters of color relative to the same point in time in both 2022 and 2024. In fact, in every state reporting thus far the white vote share is lower than '22/'24.

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I wrote up my findings on the early vote in a little greater detail here tombonier.substack.com/p/early-note...

tombonier.substack.com

Early Notes on Early Votes

Voters of Color Could be Reshaping the 2026 Map

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Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

I wrote up my findings on the early vote in a little greater detail here tombonier.substack.com/p/early-note...

tombonier.substack.com

Early Notes on Early Votes

Voters of Color Could be Reshaping the 2026 Map

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Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

That’s not a misprint - more Latino voters have cast a ballot already than did at the same point in the 2024 presidential election.

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Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Over 2 million votes have been cast in the 2026 election already. Almost all of those voters cast a ballot in the 2024 election, as expected. But if you look at the "surge" voters, who didn't vote in 2024 at all, you see a doubling of the share of Hispanic and AAPI voters.

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Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

I'd be happy to - best email for me is tom.bonier@thetara.group

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My numbers are all "early" votes, which includes mail and early in person.

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In Hennepin County, which endured some of the most brutal ICE raids and the murder of Renee Good, Hispanic turnout is literally 5x what it was at this point in 2022, and >50% above 2024 at the same point.

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I'll post more state breakouts tomorrow, but so far in every state I have checked, the Hispanic turnout share exceeds that of 2024. In Minnesota, total Hispanic turnout has exceeded the same point in 2024 as well.

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This is pretty wild. While the total turnout in VA so far is 23% below where it was at the same point in '24 (expected, given that '24 was a presidential year), total Hispanic turnout is almost 50% ahead of the same point in '24.

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- Trump is absolute deadweight for Texas Republicans, with 57% of likely voters disapproving of his job performance. - Keep an eye on AAPI voters. The poll doesn't break out their numbers, but they could exceed 5% of the electorate (total turnout doubled between '18 and '22).

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- The '24 vote recall is a +7 Trump electorate. Remember, he carried Texas by 14, but the vote recall can be fraught, with some respondents potentially hesitant to admit voting for Trump. - Talarico is winning among likely voters who did not vote in '24 by 31 pts.

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Cross-Tabs: September 2026 Times/Siena Poll of the Likely Electorate in Texas

Great poll for Dems from an excellent pollster. Some notes on the crosstabs: - The Hispanic sample at 20% is maybe slightly conservative (in terms of size), in '18 Hispanics were 18%, in '22 they were 20.2%, and 23.2% in '24. Talarico is winning them by 32 pts. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

nytimes.com

Results of a New York Times/Siena poll conducted among 615 voters from Sept. 21 to 30, 2026.

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Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Almost 80% of the votes cast in PA so far come from registered Dems, exceeding the Dem share from this point in 2024 and 2022. Dems could pick up 3-4 congressional seats in the state.

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Updating the early vote report there, it is fascinating - the Dem mail voting so far is almost identical to the same point in 2022 (impressive, given that in 2022 many more were voting by mail in general), while the GOP mail vote is lagging behind 2022 by 33%.

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Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Earlier this week I flagged NJ2 as a potential dark horse race to watch, as the mail vote returns so far there are showing signs of a depressed GOP base. Now the DCCC is targeting the district. Still a tough race, but worth watching.

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PA vote by mail broken out by gender, compared to the same point in the past two elections.

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In VA, where more than 200k votes have already been cast, turnout among Black and AAPI voters has more than doubled, compared to this same point in 2022, while Hispanic turnout is more than 5x that benchmark.

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And if you want a fun upset watch... Republicans aren't showing a lot of early enthusiasm in Jeff Van Drew's district.

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It's way too early to draw any conclusions from the early vote, but a few states have fairly sizable turnout so far. NJ is one, with about 100k votes cast already. Interestingly, the Dem share of votes cast is exceeding each of the recent prior elections, a good sign for Dems.

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I don't know for sure, but I can say that the state has screwed up the voter file badly.

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Just added it to the thread now

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FL - big gains with Gen Z Latino and Black voters...

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NC shows the same trend, though the swings aren't as large as PA, we are still seeing double digit swings in partisan gaps among Gen Z new registrants since Trump took office, with the biggest swings coming from AAPI voters, followed by white voters.

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First up, PA - while Dems made gains in every group, the biggest swings were with AAPI voters, where Gen Z new registrants went from +11D in early 2025 to +40D now, followed by white voters, going from -11D to +13D, 29 and 24 pt swings, respectively.

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Last week I took a look at trends in Gen Z voter registration, finding that since Trump took office last January, Dems have made massive gains with young voters across the country. Now I'll update that analysis with some breakdowns by race/ethnicity.

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And... wow... Iowa, where Dems were 20 pts underwater among new registrant Gen Z when Trump took office and now are 20 pts up.

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I can't say I expected Dems to be outregistering GOPs among Gen Z in Kansas too, but here we are.

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In Florida, Dems were much more underwater with Gen Z new registrants back in Jan of last year, but have erased those advantages and are close to parity at this point. Note, we will be adding a new update here shortly, as this currently only goes through early summer.

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In NC, when Trump took office Republicans were actually outregistering Dems among Gen Z voters. Now Dems have built a double digit advantage.

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In PA in Jan of 2025, Gen Z new registrants were almost evenly split between Dems and GOPs. Fast forward to now, Dems have approached and exceeded a 40 pt share margin among Gen Z new registrants.

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