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Center for Strategic Politics @stratpolitics.org · 16/10/2026

Among that 61%, 80% say they want to fully cease military aid to Israel, while 65% of all voters want to cease military aid.

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Center for Strategic Politics @stratpolitics.org · 16/10/2026

61% of voters say that the issue of Israel/Palestine will be extremely or very important in deciding their vote, while only 17% say it will be not at all or not too important.

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Center for Strategic Politics @stratpolitics.org · 16/10/2026

While Jimmy Gomez and Angela Gonzales-Torres have similar levels of positive favorability, Gomez’s significantly higher negative ratings suggest that voters’ opinions of him are more entrenched.

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Center for Strategic Politics @stratpolitics.org · 16/10/2026

After voters hear balanced positive and negative biographies of both candidates, Gonzales-Torres’ lead increases to 22%.

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Center for Strategic Politics @stratpolitics.org · 16/10/2026

Before voters hear anything about either candidate, Angela Gonzales-Torres already leads Jimmy Gomez by 10 points.

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Center for Strategic Politics @stratpolitics.org · 21/09/2026

Just for fun, we asked voters which establishments they regularly tip at. At least among Democrats, the norm is to tip everywhere with one exception: fast food.

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Center for Strategic Politics @stratpolitics.org · 21/09/2026

27% of Democrats told us they plan to use AI to figure out how to vote in future elections, with 7% saying they plan to use it "a lot".

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Center for Strategic Politics @stratpolitics.org · 21/09/2026

A majority of Democrats want to pack the Supreme Court and abolish the filibuster, but getting rid of the Senate altogether is highly disfavored (however, 34% of Dems under 45 support it).

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Center for Strategic Politics @stratpolitics.org · 21/09/2026

Criminal prosecutions of Trump officials are generally favored by Dems, with clear majorities indicating support in all cases. Voters also support prosecution of officials from both the Trump and Biden admins over US support for Israel's genocide in Gaza.

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Center for Strategic Politics @stratpolitics.org · 21/09/2026

We polled five routes for Trump to leave office before the end of his term. A plurality of Dems support four of them, including a military coup and death by natural causes. The only one underwater, an assassination, is still supported by 29%.

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Center for Strategic Politics @stratpolitics.org · 21/09/2026

Who do Democrats trust? Their friends, family, and the New York Times. Who do they distrust? CEOs and the government.

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Center for Strategic Politics @stratpolitics.org · 21/09/2026

All 2028 contenders and high-profile party figures we polled are broadly popular with Dems. The one exception? Chuck Schumer. And for all the arguing over Hasan Piker, 72% of Dems either don't know or don't care about him.

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Center for Strategic Politics @stratpolitics.org · 21/09/2026

Kamala Harris easily takes first place in our poll of the 2028 Democratic primary, with Gavin Newsom and Pete Buttigieg rounding out the top three.

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Center for Strategic Politics @stratpolitics.org · 07/08/2026

In Jared Moskowitz’s word cloud, the word DeSantis appears frequently due to Moskowitz’s previous identification as a “DeSantis Democrat”. The words Israel and AIPAC appear frequently due to Moskowitz’s self-identification as strongly pro-Israel.

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Center for Strategic Politics @stratpolitics.org · 07/08/2026

In Oliver Larkin’s word cloud, the words pedophile, Trump, and Fox appear frequently due to a recent appearance on Fox News in which he said “We need to hold this pedophile Donald Trump accountable.” Clips of this appearance have spread widely on social media in the past week.

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Center for Strategic Politics @stratpolitics.org · 07/08/2026

Support for military aid to Israel is even less popular than AIPAC, with 68% of FL-25 Democrats saying they want to either reduce or cease all military aid to Israel.

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Center for Strategic Politics @stratpolitics.org · 07/08/2026

AIPAC support has become a deep vulnerability in districts around the country and FL-25 is no different. 43% of FL-25 Dems are less likely to support an AIPAC-backed candidate, only 15% are more likely to, while another 42% either feel neutral or aren’t sure how they feel.

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Center for Strategic Politics @stratpolitics.org · 07/08/2026

But when separating responses between those who have already voted and those still waiting to vote, a significant divergence appears. With a 10% lead among not-yet-voters, Oliver Larkin’s path to victory relies on mobilizing his later-voting base to the greatest extent possible.

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Center for Strategic Politics @stratpolitics.org · 07/08/2026

With under two weeks to election day, Oliver Larkin and Jared Moskowitz are in a statistical tie to claim the Democratic nomination in Florida’s new 25th Congressional District.

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Center for Strategic Politics @stratpolitics.org · 05/08/2026

Congratulations to Donavan McKinney (@donavanmckinney.bsky.social) and Chris Gilmer-Hill (@313cgh.bsky.social)! Center for Strategic Politics client Progress Detroit PAC used our polling to direct resources & ascertain the state of the race in the weeks leading up to the primary for their endorsees.

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Center for Strategic Politics @stratpolitics.org · 24/06/2026

But just looking at toplines can be misleading. Breaking out the top 3 issues by ideology reveals a much more complicated picture, where housing affordability is extremely socialist-biased, cost of living is ideologically even, and crime is extremely moderate-biased

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Center for Strategic Politics @stratpolitics.org · 24/06/2026

We also conducted issue polling, finding that housing, cost of living, and crime are the top 3 issues for Ward 1 Democrats

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Center for Strategic Politics @stratpolitics.org · 24/06/2026

RCV transfers concluded before votes from either Rashida Brown or Miguel Trinidade Deramo transferred, avoiding the impact of their cross-endorsement. But our poll found that even after being widely-publicized, it was still less than 50% effective and wouldn't have been decisive

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Center for Strategic Politics @stratpolitics.org · 24/06/2026

Although Aparna won one round earlier than we expected in our RCV simulation, it was still extremely accurate. Round 3 results in our simulation correspond almost exactly to the final round of the election (with Aparna at 51% rather than 49%, avoiding the 4th round we simulated)

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Center for Strategic Politics @stratpolitics.org · 24/06/2026

While our poll stayed internal during the campaign, we can now share that we successfully projected the first-round results within the margin of error back in April

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Center for Strategic Politics @stratpolitics.org · 24/06/2026

Congratulations to Center for Strategic Politics client @aparnafordc.bsky.social! With ranked choice voting being newly introduced to DC elections this year, Aparna’s campaign used CSP polling to determine the state of the race and test messages.

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Center for Strategic Politics @stratpolitics.org · 17/06/2026

Congratulations to Center for Strategic Politics client @samsonforgeorgia.bsky.social on his win tonight! Mathewos’ campaign used CSP polling and data to effectively direct resources through both the primary and runoff elections.

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Center for Strategic Politics @stratpolitics.org · 18/05/2026

Seth Moulton has made Ed Markey's age a centerpiece of his primary challenge to the 79-year-old senator. Is it helping win over younger voters?

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Center for Strategic Politics @stratpolitics.org · 17/05/2026

MA-6 Democratic voters are broadly in favor of the rent control ballot measure, with 63% in favor and only 20% opposed.

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Center for Strategic Politics @stratpolitics.org · 17/05/2026

And on prosecution of ICE leaders and agents, voters are in favor by a 74-point margin.

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Center for Strategic Politics @stratpolitics.org · 17/05/2026

On artificial intelligence, voters support stronger government regulation by a 90-point margin.

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Center for Strategic Politics @stratpolitics.org · 17/05/2026

On Israel, MA-6 primary voters are generally aligned: 86% want to end, reduce, or condition military aid to Israel, with a near-majority (44%) wanting to fully end military aid.

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Center for Strategic Politics @stratpolitics.org · 17/05/2026

In the race for Senate, Seth Moulton is down 7 points against Ed Markey in Moulton’s home district.

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Center for Strategic Politics @stratpolitics.org · 17/05/2026

The race for Congress starts with 59% of voters undecided. But after respondents read balanced biographies of all candidates (available on our website), Beth Andres-Beck and Jamie Belsito jump into the lead.

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Center for Strategic Politics @stratpolitics.org · 21/04/2026

NJ-8 primary voters lean progressive on other issues too. When asked about Medicare for All, voters support it by a 70-point margin.

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Center for Strategic Politics @stratpolitics.org · 21/04/2026

Attitudes towards Israel and Palestine directly are similarly lopsided. Only 17% of NJ-8 Dems support Israel, opposed to 42% who support Palestine.

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Center for Strategic Politics @stratpolitics.org · 21/04/2026

In addition to disliking AIPAC, NJ-8 Dems are strongly opposed to military aid to Israel. Three-fourths of respondents want to cease (40%) or reduce (35%) military aid, while only 15% want to maintain or increase it.

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Center for Strategic Politics @stratpolitics.org · 21/04/2026

One of the biggest factors moving voters towards Ali could be that Menendez is endorsed by AIPAC. Only 16% of voters feel positively about an AIPAC endorsement, while 49% are less likely to vote for an AIPAC-endorsed candidate.

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Center for Strategic Politics @stratpolitics.org · 21/04/2026

We also asked respondents who they'd vote for after reading positive bios only. By separating the three questions, the flow of support as voters learn more about the candidates becomes clear.

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Center for Strategic Politics @stratpolitics.org · 21/04/2026

After respondents read positive and negative bios for both candidates, Ali leads Menendez by 10 points— a large shift from the plain ballot.

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Center for Strategic Politics @stratpolitics.org · 21/04/2026

If the election were held today, Menendez would be the favorite to win, but at only 42% he's not where an incumbent wants to be.

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Center for Strategic Politics @stratpolitics.org · 10/03/2026

And while Jared Moskowitz has signaled support for the war on Iran, FL-23 Democrats oppose military strikes by a 50-point margin.

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Center for Strategic Politics @stratpolitics.org · 10/03/2026

On the issues, Moskowitz is severely out of step with FL-23 voters. *63%* of Democratic voters support reducing military aid to Israel, with 30% supporting a full cessation of aid.

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Center for Strategic Politics @stratpolitics.org · 10/03/2026

When respondents are subsequently presented with negative biographies of both candidates, Moskowitz continues to bleed support. This indicates that he is far more vulnerable to negative campaigning than Larkin.

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Center for Strategic Politics @stratpolitics.org · 10/03/2026

When respondents are presented with positive biographies for both Moskowitz and Larkin, the situation changes dramatically. While Moskowitz keeps most of his support, almost two-thirds of undecided voters shift to Larkin.

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Center for Strategic Politics @stratpolitics.org · 10/03/2026

Moskowitz wins when voters are asked who they would vote for if the election were held today. But he doesn't hit 50%— a weak position for an incumbent.

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Center for Strategic Politics @stratpolitics.org · 17/06/2025

In addition to the upcoming election, voters were also asked to weigh in on a hypothetical Senate election between Bronx natives and U.S. Representatives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ritchie Torres. Ocasio-Cortez secures 58%, compared to Torres’ 23%.

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Center for Strategic Politics @stratpolitics.org · 17/06/2025

After hearing the facts, voters are strongly against Andrew Cuomo’s taxpayer-funded lawsuits against over a dozen women who have accused him of sexual harassment. Only 12% of respondents support tax dollars going towards these lawsuits, while 77% oppose the practice.

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Center for Strategic Politics @stratpolitics.org · 17/06/2025

Echoing a key plank of Zohran Mamdani's platform, 3/4ths of voters support freezing rent for stabilized tentants.

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Center for Strategic Politics @stratpolitics.org · 17/06/2025

When asked to consider the impacts of endorsements from several political organizations on their likelihood to support a candidate, voters broke heavily in favor of the left-wing DSA (+24%) and WFP (+42%). The zionist AIPAC did not fare as well (-5%).

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