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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 29/03/2025

#FedChairPowell highlighted the unknown effects of #tariffs, which are causing investor concern. We expect 2025 #GDP growth above 2.0% and #inflation to ease, leading to possible #RateCuts. #SP500 EPS growth is projected to be over 9%, indicating a slower upward market trend.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 29/03/2025

Dip-buying investors recall Baron Rothschild’s quote, “The time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets.” However, after the #SP500's two consecutive years of over 25% returns, a 10% pullback hardly qualifies as a #bloodbath.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 29/03/2025

Frm the peak on Feb 19 to the end of the 10.1%⬇️on Mar 13, bearishness was prevalent. The #SP500 & #Nasdaq100 saw many stocks⬇️below oversold levels, the @CNNFearandGreed was in the #ExtremeFear category & the @AAIISentiment indicated a #caution not seen since the 2022 bear mrkt.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 29/03/2025

History hints (but does not guarantee) that quick⬇️ below 10% often lead to: 1) shallower avg ⬇️ 2) shorter durations for the total ⬇️& 3) quicker recoveries. However, the primary challenge remains the ongoing #tariff dispute, which adds uncertainty to both the⬇️& recovery.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 29/03/2025

In response to these concerns, the #SP500 1st entered a pullback, ⬇️over 5% on March 4. It then⬇️into #correction territory by surpassing a 10% drop on March 13, just 22 days after hitting a new high, compared to the avg of 80 days for past selloffs over 10% since World War II.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 29/03/2025

After reaching a new all-time⬆️on Feb 19, the #SP500 ⬇️, pressured by the manufactured headwind of #tariffs imposed on our major trading partners, which resurrected the whisper of #recession. #BullMarkets don’t die of old age. They die of fright & are most afraid of recession.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 15/03/2025

On Friday, the #SP500 saw a counter-trend move, likely due to a near-term oversold condition, as investors stepped in to buy the dip despite a #WeakerThanExpected jobs report. Time of this cautious sentiment will be how quickly global trade concerns & recession threats subside.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 15/03/2025

The limited bright spots in the past wk came from the international developed & emerging mrkts, as the U.S.💲index⬇️& investors decided it best to temporarily sidestep the #tariff turmoil by rotating into those areas that have underperformed the #SP500 in 12 of the last 15 yrs.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 09/03/2025

.@cfraresearch see this retrenchment as a #healthy sign for the #BullMarket & expect a shift back to #GrowthSectors as the year unfolds. With February behind us, the seasonal recovery brings #optimism for investors.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 09/03/2025

As we enter the month named after the Roman god of war, #GrowthSectors like the #SP500GrowthIndex, #CommServices, #ConsumerDiscretionary, & #Industrials are struggling, trading below their 10- & 40-week moving avgs. In contrast, #DefensiveSectors are outperforming MTD & YTD.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 09/03/2025

As winter turns to spring, the stock mrkt typically rebounds in #March. The #SP500 has an avg rtn that ranks 5th⬆️since 1945 w/a 65% chance of➕rtns, outpacing the 60% avg 4 other mos. But, Mar also sees both the⬆️&⬇️rtns w/⬇️std dev compared to other mos, despite freq pullbacks.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 27/02/2025

Last week’s sell-off saw rtrns among sectors reflecting patterns frm the 15 #SP500⬇️of 10% or more since 1990. It’s still early to determine if the #SP500 is entering a #pullback (5.0% to 9.9%⬇️) or a #correction (10.0% to 19.9%), sector & bond performance can provide insights.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 27/02/2025

The cyclical sectors like #ConsumerDiscretionary, #Industrials, & #Financials fell ⬇️as investors grew concerned about the economy's health & the effects of steep #tariffs. Last week's performance resembled fainting goats reacting to a sudden shock.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 27/02/2025

In the last 2 days of last week, the #SP500⬇️2.1% due to concerns over #ConsumerConfidence, #Earnings, & #Inflation. However, #ConsumerStaples, #HealthCare, & #utilities sectors performed well, as #demand for their products typically remains #stable in good and bad times.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 27/02/2025

Investors who wanted to know which sectors would likely be winners and losers during a sharp selloff in the equity market could have channeled Captain Renault in the 1942 classic film Casablanca, who frequently ordered “round up the usual suspects!”.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 19/02/2025

4) Investors have concluded that #StockPrices can still #rise this year, absent rate cuts & P/E multiple expansion since earnings are forecasted to post double-digit gains in 2025 & 2026.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 19/02/2025

3) The treasure trove of #tariffs, imposed and then postponed, have caused the markets to conclude that tariffs remain more rhetoric than reality.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 19/02/2025

2) Recent economic data continue to support the #FederalReserve's (Fed) “no hurry to cut” stance. However, Fed Chair #Powell’s testimony before #Congress suggested that #RateCuts are still the Fed’s preferred scenario and remain a possibility.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 19/02/2025

For example, 1) a hotter-than-expected reading for the Jan #ConsumerPriceIndex was met by a more tame #ProducerPriceIndex, which allowed investors to expect a favorable #PersonalConsumptionExpenditure reading later this month.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 19/02/2025

Investors appear to be in a “yeah, but” kind of mindset. Despite being delivered unsettling news that initially caused the markets to fall, stock prices recovered quickly after investors convinced themselves that these negatives would likely be offset by positives.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 13/02/2025

The #SP500 disappointed investors this week, continuing its trend of➖rtrns in Feb. A⬇️this month doesn’t usually signal a failing year, as the index often⬆️after a Feb drop. When Feb follows a Jan gain, the #SP500 has ended the yr⬆️97% of the time, an average growth of over 20%.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 13/02/2025

Earnings miss from $GOOGL & $AMZN & Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report⬆️#inflation concerns & led to a sharp selloff. Q4 2024 EPS forecasts now predict a 13.7%⬆️up from the 8.7% projection, per #SPCapitalIQ. We also anticipate two 25 basis point rate cuts in the 2nd & 4th Qtrs.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 13/02/2025

After #tariff announcements for major #TradingPartners, stocks saw significant selling, with most sectors and 80% of #SP1500 subindustries⬇️. However, President Trump’s 30-day extensions & strong Q4 earnings spurred a relief rally mid-week.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 30/01/2025

46 stocks have favorable investment rankings (CFRA 4-STARS or 5-STARS), according to @cfraresearch. Combining fundamentals w/technicals, a baker’s dozen of these 46 also have #PowerRatings above 90, along w/favorable short- & intermediate-term trends, according to @LowryResearch.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 30/01/2025

This week, 98 #SP500 companies are reporting Q4 earnings, with the ⬆️ number in #Industrials, #Financials, & #InformationTechnology. The reporting companies represent the ⬆️sector weightings for #Energy, #ConsumerDiscretionary, & #Industrials.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 30/01/2025

In 2024, the #SP500 ⬆️over 23%, setting 57 new all-time⬆️, including 6 in Jan. In Jan 2025, it reached its 1st⬆️of the yr, fueled by dovish inflation, strong retail sales,➕producer sentiment & an expected EPS growth of 9.7% for Q4 2024,⬆️frm 8.7%, w/ 5 sectors seeing⬆️revisions.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 24/01/2025

Join me for my session, The #FreeLunchPortfolio, @ the @MoneyShow's 2025 Portfolio Playbook Virtual Expo. I will discuss whether history advises buying last year’s #winners or #losers. Register today for your free pass. ow.ly/YVem50UH0jc

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 23/01/2025

Join me at the @MoneyShow's 2025 Portfolio Playbook Virtual Expo on Jan 28-29. My industry colleagues & I will provide guidance &recommendations for stocks, bonds, precious metals, real estate, cryptocurrencies, & more during this event. Register today! ow.ly/oHzq50UHh3k

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 23/01/2025

Despite the forecast for an increase in volatility, @cfraresearch continues to predict another price increase for the #SP500 in #2025 & maintains its #overweight rankings in the #CommunicationServices, #financials, & #InformationTechnology sectors.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 23/01/2025

Since 1993, the top four sectors from #election to #inauguration day averaged a 17.0% ⬆️, outperforming the #SP500's 15.9% rise 75% of the time. Additionally, the top 10 #SP500 sub-industries averaged a 26.8% increase & also beat the market 75% of the time.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 23/01/2025

Investors are curious if this year’s PEHP climb will signal ➕performance for the #FirstHundredDays and #FullYear, as it has nearly 80% of the time. Additionally, the performance of S&P 500 sectors during the PEHP has historically predicted sector leadership for the entire year.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 23/01/2025

The Post-Election Honeymoon Period (PEHP) has ended, with the #SP500 rising nearly 4%, above the 1.6% avg since 1944. This performance ranks 11th among 21 PEHPs. The best return was 14.3% after Biden’s 2020 election, while the worst was a 19.9% drop post-Obama in 2008.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 22/01/2025

Join me for my session, The #FreeLunchPortfolio, @ the @MoneyShow's 2025 Portfolio Playbook Virtual Expo. I am excited to share how a portfolio consisting of only two sectors delivered 94% of #Tech’s return since 1990 with 40% #lower #volatility. ow.ly/IeJS50UH0ks

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 15/01/2025

Only 13% of the 155 sub-industries in the #SP1500 ended the wk above their 10wk moving avg, while 47% were above their 40wk avg. Just 10% were above both. Since many are close to #oversold levels, a #bounce back may occur, but it might be #short #lived.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 15/01/2025

Friday’s jobs report showed strong growth & a⬇️in unemployment to 4.1%. Investors worry there may be only 1 rate cut this yr. As a result, #USequity mrkts con't to⬇️& face more challenges in Jan, w/all 3 #inflation readings expected to show flat or ⬆️#s vs last month & last yr.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 15/01/2025

Since the #FederalReserve cut the #FederalFundsRate for the 1st of 3 times in mid-Sept 2024, the 10-year yield ⬆️from the then 3.60% level to the recent 4.76% reading. Also, the prospects for additional federal funds rate cuts in 2025 slipped from 4 25-basis point easings to 2.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

Full-year 2024 forecasts suggest an 8.5% #EPS⬆️ for the #SP500, with further #growth anticipated in #2025. An elevated P/E ratio accompanies this. For more information, visit cfraresearch.com

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

#MidCap400 #EPS is forecast to⬇️by 2.3%, while #SmallCap600 #EPS is expected to⬆️ by 6.3%. Sub-industries like #Broadcasting & #WirelessTelecommunicationsServices are set for #growth, while #AlternativeCarriers & #OilAndGasDrilling could see sharp⬇️.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

The Q4 2024 earnings season is about to begin, with #SP500 #EPS estimated to⬆️8.7% YoY, driven by strong double-digit gains in 7 sectors like #CommServices & #InformationTech. #GrowthStocks are projected to outpace #ValueStocks, with EPS gains of 17.4% vs a 3.1% ⬇️ respectively.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

The #FederalReserve is expected to implement a 25-basis point #RateCut. Historically,⬇️in sub-industry avgs from late Nov to mid-Dec have not precluded year-end advances in the #SP500, which typically sees an avg ⬆️of 1.2% by year-end. Visit Lowrysearch.com for more.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

This narrowing is seen as temporary, primarily due to adjustments after gains in #SmallerCap stocks rather than signs of a major market top. @LowryResearch suggests investors view any pullbacks as #buying #opportunities instead of #warning signals.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

.@LowryResearch indicated that many core indicators reached strong levels by end of Nov, supporting the long-term #health of the current #BullMarket. But, there has been a⬇️in strength in Dec w/the % of #SP1500 sub-industries trading above their 50 & 200 day moving avgs⬇️frm Nov.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

As #investors head into #2025, since #2024 will likely remain a double-digit gainer, the strategy recommends sticking with the leading sectors and sub-industries listed herein. For more visit cfraresearch.com

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

The #RotationalApproach at the sector level yielded an avg annual⬆️of 13.0% & adv 82% of the⏲️ outperforming the mrkt by 71%. By rotating btwn the 10 #best & 10 #worst #SP500 sub-industries, it achieved an 18.2% avg rtn, adv 76% of the⏲️& also beat the #SP500 in 71% of the yrs.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

History says, but does not guarantee, that the best response is often #ThatDepends. Ideally investors tend to💵more by buying last year's #losers after a ⬇️yr & holding last year's #winners after an⬆️yr. From 1991 to early Dec 2024, the #SP500 averaged a 10.5% annual gain.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

As of Dec 6, the #SP500 has⬆️nearly 28% YTD, with gains across all sectors & over 70% of sub-industries. As we prepare for 2025, #investors are debating whether to invest in 2024's #winners or #losers, considering strategies like #LetYourWinnersRide & #BuyLow, #SellHigh.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

Finally, @CFRAresearch projects new highs through year-end as the #SAndP approaches its 6,145 #TargetLevel. Visit cfraresearch.com for more.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

Historically, Dec returns for the #SP500, particularly in #electionyears, have shown strong results: 1) the 2nd ⬆️average monthly return, 2) the greatest frequency of advances, & 3) the⬇️Std Dev of returns, nearly 40% below the average for the 11 other months of the year.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

The U.S. equity markets continue to plow ahead, setting new all-time⬆️. YTD through the end of Nov, the #SP500 accumulated the greatest # of closing ⬆️(53), followed by the #DJIA (47) & the #Nasdaq100 (30). The #Russell2000 is about to set its 1st new closing⬆️in over 3yrs.

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