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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 29/03/2025

Frm the peak on Feb 19 to the end of the 10.1%⬇️on Mar 13, bearishness was prevalent. The #SP500 & #Nasdaq100 saw many stocks⬇️below oversold levels, the @CNNFearandGreed was in the #ExtremeFear category & the @AAIISentiment indicated a #caution not seen since the 2022 bear mrkt.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 29/03/2025

After reaching a new all-time⬆️on Feb 19, the #SP500 ⬇️, pressured by the manufactured headwind of #tariffs imposed on our major trading partners, which resurrected the whisper of #recession. #BullMarkets don’t die of old age. They die of fright & are most afraid of recession.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 15/03/2025

The limited bright spots in the past wk came from the international developed & emerging mrkts, as the U.S.💲index⬇️& investors decided it best to temporarily sidestep the #tariff turmoil by rotating into those areas that have underperformed the #SP500 in 12 of the last 15 yrs.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 09/03/2025

As winter turns to spring, the stock mrkt typically rebounds in #March. The #SP500 has an avg rtn that ranks 5th⬆️since 1945 w/a 65% chance of➕rtns, outpacing the 60% avg 4 other mos. But, Mar also sees both the⬆️&⬇️rtns w/⬇️std dev compared to other mos, despite freq pullbacks.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 27/02/2025

Investors who wanted to know which sectors would likely be winners and losers during a sharp selloff in the equity market could have channeled Captain Renault in the 1942 classic film Casablanca, who frequently ordered “round up the usual suspects!”.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 19/02/2025

Investors appear to be in a “yeah, but” kind of mindset. Despite being delivered unsettling news that initially caused the markets to fall, stock prices recovered quickly after investors convinced themselves that these negatives would likely be offset by positives.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 13/02/2025

After #tariff announcements for major #TradingPartners, stocks saw significant selling, with most sectors and 80% of #SP1500 subindustries⬇️. However, President Trump’s 30-day extensions & strong Q4 earnings spurred a relief rally mid-week.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 30/01/2025

In 2024, the #SP500 ⬆️over 23%, setting 57 new all-time⬆️, including 6 in Jan. In Jan 2025, it reached its 1st⬆️of the yr, fueled by dovish inflation, strong retail sales,➕producer sentiment & an expected EPS growth of 9.7% for Q4 2024,⬆️frm 8.7%, w/ 5 sectors seeing⬆️revisions.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 24/01/2025

Join me for my session, The #FreeLunchPortfolio, @ the @MoneyShow's 2025 Portfolio Playbook Virtual Expo. I will discuss whether history advises buying last year’s #winners or #losers. Register today for your free pass. ow.ly/YVem50UH0jc

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 23/01/2025

Join me at the @MoneyShow's 2025 Portfolio Playbook Virtual Expo on Jan 28-29. My industry colleagues & I will provide guidance &recommendations for stocks, bonds, precious metals, real estate, cryptocurrencies, & more during this event. Register today! ow.ly/oHzq50UHh3k

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 23/01/2025

The Post-Election Honeymoon Period (PEHP) has ended, with the #SP500 rising nearly 4%, above the 1.6% avg since 1944. This performance ranks 11th among 21 PEHPs. The best return was 14.3% after Biden’s 2020 election, while the worst was a 19.9% drop post-Obama in 2008.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 22/01/2025

Join me for my session, The #FreeLunchPortfolio, @ the @MoneyShow's 2025 Portfolio Playbook Virtual Expo. I am excited to share how a portfolio consisting of only two sectors delivered 94% of #Tech’s return since 1990 with 40% #lower #volatility. ow.ly/IeJS50UH0ks

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 15/01/2025

Since the #FederalReserve cut the #FederalFundsRate for the 1st of 3 times in mid-Sept 2024, the 10-year yield ⬆️from the then 3.60% level to the recent 4.76% reading. Also, the prospects for additional federal funds rate cuts in 2025 slipped from 4 25-basis point easings to 2.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

The Q4 2024 earnings season is about to begin, with #SP500 #EPS estimated to⬆️8.7% YoY, driven by strong double-digit gains in 7 sectors like #CommServices & #InformationTech. #GrowthStocks are projected to outpace #ValueStocks, with EPS gains of 17.4% vs a 3.1% ⬇️ respectively.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

.@LowryResearch indicated that many core indicators reached strong levels by end of Nov, supporting the long-term #health of the current #BullMarket. But, there has been a⬇️in strength in Dec w/the % of #SP1500 sub-industries trading above their 50 & 200 day moving avgs⬇️frm Nov.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

History says, but does not guarantee, that the best response is often #ThatDepends. Ideally investors tend to💵more by buying last year's #losers after a ⬇️yr & holding last year's #winners after an⬆️yr. From 1991 to early Dec 2024, the #SP500 averaged a 10.5% annual gain.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

As of Dec 6, the #SP500 has⬆️nearly 28% YTD, with gains across all sectors & over 70% of sub-industries. As we prepare for 2025, #investors are debating whether to invest in 2024's #winners or #losers, considering strategies like #LetYourWinnersRide & #BuyLow, #SellHigh.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

The U.S. equity markets continue to plow ahead, setting new all-time⬆️. YTD through the end of Nov, the #SP500 accumulated the greatest # of closing ⬆️(53), followed by the #DJIA (47) & the #Nasdaq100 (30). The #Russell2000 is about to set its 1st new closing⬆️in over 3yrs.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

In a year of financial uncertainty, your best investment is knowledge. Join me & my industry colleagues for the @MoneyShow #MastersSymposium, three days of expert talks, networking, and actionable strategies that can reshape your portfolio. Register now. ow.ly/VoXk50UgbU3

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

What a difference a week makes. During the U.S. #Presidentialelection week, all sizes, styles, & sectors within the #SP1500⬆️in price on the combined stimulus from a #Republican sweep & the expected continued easing of monetary policy.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

The election process concluded unexpectedly quickly, suggesting a #RedWave, in which Republicans achieve control of the #executive & #legislative branches. Historically, a Red Wave has led to significant gains for the #SP500, averaging nearly 13% under a #RepublicanPresident.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

The scariest month of the year has come to an end. Typically, the #SP500 posted a ⬇️ in the month before the Presidential election, and this year was no different. All sizes, styles, and 8 of 11 sectors in the #SP1500Index slipped in price.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

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Prepare Your Portfolio for a Crucial Year Ahead | Sarasota MoneyShow Masters Symposium

Join an interactive forum to explore economics, politics, markets, real estate, alternative assets, technology, artificial intelligence, and more in a relaxed, resort setting in Sarasota, Florida. Alt...

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

In 2024, the #SP500 gained over 15% during the May-Oct pd, following a 20% jump in the preceding Nov-Apr pd. Despite concerns about market energy reserves, historical trends suggest that prior momentum usually leads to positive performance in the following Nov-Apr pd.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

The stock market is entering a historically strong period from Nov-Apr, known as TheBestSixMonths with the #SP500 averaging nearly 7% gains during this time since WWII. In contrast, the May-Oct pd has typically shown #weaker performance, averaging only 2% gains.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

The 2024 #PresidentialElection is approaching, but the time to #refine your investment strategy is NOW! Join me & Wall Street's top strategists at the 2024 @MoneyShow #MastersSymposium to discuss actionable strategies for your portfolio. Register now. ow.ly/q8Z250TTrpc

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

In the 1st 5 days of this #BullMarket’s 3rd year of existence, the #SP500 posted new all-time⬆️for 2024. Similar upward revisions to new-⬆️counts were added by the #DJIA #SP500GrowthAndValue #SPMidCap400 & the #SP500 #Financials #Industrials #Materials & #Utilities sectors.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

The current #BulMarket began after the prior bear market ended on October 12, 2022. In the 1st year, the #SP500 rose 22%, & in the 2nd year, it gained 33.7%, recovering 184% of the losses from the previous #BearMarket.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

For 2024, #SP500 earnings are expected to⬆️8.3%, followed by a 14.0% gain in 2025. #GrowthStocks are forecasted to ⬆️2.3% this yr & 17.0% next yr, while #ValueStocks will jump 13.7% in 2024 & 12.1% in 2025. #SPMidCap400 EPS are projected to grow 2.1% this year & 16.7% next year.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

The Q3 2024 earnings reporting pd is approaching. In Q2 2024, the #SP500 EPS⬆️by 12.9% Y/Y exceeding the projected gain of 8.1%. As of Oct 4 #SPCapitalIQ anticipates a 3.2% Y/Y⬆️in Q3 2024. ⬆️#HealthCare #InformationTech ⬇️#ConsumerDiscretionary #Energy #Industrials #RealEstate

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

It was great to join @RealMikeLarson of the @moneyshow #podcast to discuss Q4 market trends, investment opportunities, and sector outlooks. Don’t miss this deep dive into what’s shaping the markets; catch the replay below. ow.ly/Iywf50TEjzz

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CFRA’s Stovall: The Election, The Fed, & The Market Road Ahead

Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

As we enter Q4, investor optimism tends to⬆️as attention shifts to the coming year. Despite the market posting price gains less than 60% of the time in Q3 since WWII, it has shown an 80% frequency of advancement in Q4.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

If Rip Van Winkle had awakened on Thursday & asked, “What did I miss?” the answer would be simple. The #Fed cut rates by 50 bps & the market ⬆️. From July 26, 2023, when the Fed last raised #rates, through September 17, 2024, the day before the 1st cut, the #SP500 ⬆️23.3%.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

Like a young groom w/cold feet the equity mrkt has struggled to commit long-term. The #SP500 endured a series of surges & setbacks > than 2mos. Yet the #SP500 closed on 9/13 w/a 1wk gain of 4%, accompanied by all sizes & styles, 10 of 11 sectors within the #SPComposite1500Index.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

There’s still time to join us for @cfraresearch's webinar Election 2024: Preview, Review, Rewind? During this session, we will discuss key factors that could influence the #election outcome & drive market growth or volatility. Register now. cfraresearch.com/insights/elect…

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

Join me and my colleagues for CFRA's webinar Election 2024: Preview, Review, Rewind? We will discuss the key factors that could influence the election outcome & drive market growth or volatility. Register today. cfraresearch.com/insights/elect…

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

t.co

https://www.cfraresearch.com/insights/election-2024-preview-review-rewind/

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

Much to the investors' relief, the #SP500’s return in August was unlike its average monthly return since WWII. The large-cap benchmark rose 2.3% after concluding an 8.5% pullback from July 16 through August 5 and recovered all but 0.33% of this⬇️.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

Investors cheered #FedChair #Powell's speech at Jackson Hole, which hinted at #RateCuts in September. The only remaining question was by how much. We see the #Fed cutting rates by 25 bps, not the expected 50 bps, followed by four more 25-bp cuts in #2025.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

3 recent economic reports on #Inflation, #Jobs & #RetailSales offered reasons for investors to maintain their bullish bias & allow them to conclude that the economy remains #resilient, inflation con’t its ⬇️glide path, & the outlook for #ConsumerSpending is still supportive.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

Even though by Friday, August 9, the #SP500 had almost fully recovered from the three-day slump that also took down all sizes, styles, sectors, & 92% of the 155 sub-industries in the #SPComposite1500, most of these benchmarks remained below their July 16 highs.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

In Aug, the US equity mrkts may be forced to take a class in the 3 Rs: #retreat #rotate & #repeat. Despite a + Jul, in which the #SP500 gained 1.1% & was accompanied by gains in all sizes, styles & 9 of 11 sectors, the #SP500 peaked on 7/16, while the #Nasdaq topped out on 7/10.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

On July 16, the #SP500 had its 38th all-time closing⬆️& was trading nearly 15%⬆️its 200day moving avg vs its 20yr avg differential of 3.3%. Its fwd 12-month earnings per share P/E was 38%⬆️than its 20yr avg. The #SP500 #informationtech sector also traded 78%⬆️its long-term avg.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

#PresidentBiden's decision not to seek reelection has led to 2 things: 1) #ChairPowell is less likely to be accused of aiding the president's reelection if the Feds #CutRates in Sept. 2) a diminished chance of a Republican sweep but not eliminated according to #WashingtonAnalysis

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

Investors were concerned about market concentration and high valuations last week. The #SP500 had gained over 17% YTD driven by #MegaCapTechStocks, and its P/E ratio was trading at a 37% premium to its 20-year average.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

Welcome to the 3rd qtr. After the #SP500’s 10.2% jump in Q1, the 11th highest since WWII, Q2 maintained an ⬆️trajectory when the #SP500 posted an above-average gain of 3.9%. As a result, the 500’s H1 ⬆️of 14.5% is the 2nd #strongest #election year gain since 1944.

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Sam Stovall @stovallcfra.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

The #SP500 has gained 14.6% YTD marking the 2nd-best 1st half of any #ElectionYear since WWII. The market is showing positive signs, with gains in the 1st & 2nd qtrs & an ⬆️in new all-time highs. That was the good news. Now for some bad news.

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