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StephengfHall

@stephengfhall.bsky.social
98 followers 56 following 40 posts

Assistant professor at the University of Bath. * authoritarian learning. *Belarusian, Russian, Ukrainian, Central Asian politics.

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StephengfHall @stephengfhall.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Sadly I didn’t get to call him out on the mistruths about Ukraine, as that wasn’t the debate’s focus. Still there may be another time for that. All in all, a great time and an honour to be invited and speak at such a prestigious event
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StephengfHall @stephengfhall.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
It was great to go up against Aaron Mate who showed who he is by immediately refusing to join the rest of the table (on both sides) in the same room and throughout the debate gave misquotes and tried to shout others down, he also left quickly after losing the debate.
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StephengfHall @stephengfhall.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Speaking in front of 400+ people is something I’ve never done and if I ever do it again I will make sure I have a big bottle of water with me. Still we won the debate and so I know have a 100% record (maybe I’ll retire from debating now),
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StephengfHall @stephengfhall.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
It was a pleasure to speak last night at a debate run by UCD Literary & Historical Society on whether US foreign policy is the same as Russian (it isn’t) was great to be on the same side as @scottlucas.bsky.social & Michael Kimmage, both of whom were brilliant, and admittedly carried me a bit,
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StephengfHall @stephengfhall.bsky.social · 14/08/2025
Link failed in original post for some reason: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
Developing best practices “against terrorists who protest”: Regional organizations as learning clubs for autocracies
Regional organizations have long addressed cross-border challenges like environmental degradation and terrorism. While much of the existing literature analyzes how democratic regional organizations...
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StephengfHall @stephengfhall.bsky.social · 13/08/2025
thereby highlighting that authoritarian learning is more horizontal than existing literature allows for. Link to article is here: tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…. Should be free access. So happy to finally see this in print!
tandfonline.com
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StephengfHall @stephengfhall.bsky.social · 13/08/2025
We argue that Authoritarian Regional Organisations (AROs) are crucial structures for authoritarian learning, the sharing of best practices and enhancing autocratic survival. AROs offer an opportunity for all autocratic members to bring ideas to the table,
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StephengfHall @stephengfhall.bsky.social · 13/08/2025
Really excited to share that my new article, co written with @DebreMaria.bsky.social, “Developing best practices “against terrorists who protest:” Regionam organisations as learning clubs for autocracies” is out with @CSP_journal.
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StephengfHall @stephengfhall.bsky.social · 09/08/2025
Was great to speak today to @BBCNews & hey the promotion came as a surprise!!
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StephengfHall @stephengfhall.bsky.social · 21/07/2025
Great to be at #ICCEES2025!
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StephengfHall @stephengfhall.bsky.social · 21/07/2025
So looking forward to networking & presenting. One presentation on the end of the Russian authoritarian gravity centre. The second on cognitive biases as a cause of Russia’s war on Ukraine. Already met my good friend Rasa Karmauskaite. So excited!
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Reposted by StephengfHall
SAINT JAVELIN @saintjavelin.bsky.social · 03/06/2025
Holy shit Ukraine's SBU security service now says it has attacked the Kerch bridge in occupied Crimea in a months-long operation. It says SBU agents "mined the supports" of the bridge with 1,100kg of TNT under the water line and detonated it this morning.
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StephengfHall @stephengfhall.bsky.social · 14/05/2025
A big thank you to @HJS87.bsky.social as well publishing my report henryjacksonsociety.org/publications/r… on which the article for @EngelsbergIdeas.bsky.social is based.
henryjacksonsociety.org
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StephengfHall @stephengfhall.bsky.social · 14/05/2025
A 🇷🇺 without Putin doesn’t guarantee peace, but a 🇷🇺 with Putin guarantees instability. For too long the West has worried about instability in 🇷🇺 when it’s is stability we must fear. A link to the article is below 👇 engelsbergideas.com/notebook/the-p….
engelsbergideas.com
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StephengfHall @stephengfhall.bsky.social · 14/05/2025
This involves building up military capacity rapidly, supporting Ukraine & initiating the methods mentioned in the article to weaken the Kremlin. This doesn’t mean direct military confrontation but more subtle methods to weaken Putin’s power.
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StephengfHall @stephengfhall.bsky.social · 14/05/2025
Already we see 🇷🇺 sabotage activities in 🇪🇺 as but one example of this confrontation. 🇪🇺 must react by taking a strong approach to counter 🇷🇺 actions through economic pressure & contesting the information space. At the same time 🇪🇺 must prepare for a day without 🇺🇸
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StephengfHall @stephengfhall.bsky.social · 14/05/2025
🇷🇺 is not a status-quo power but the Kremlin seeks greater confrontation to justify holding power and the kleptocratic autocracy it has built around creating “others” & militarisation in society& politics.
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StephengfHall @stephengfhall.bsky.social · 14/05/2025
Great to see my article in @engelsbergideas.bsky.social. For too long 🇪🇺 has feared 🇷🇺 instability. Rather, it should fear the stability of the Kremlin. 🇷🇺 under Putin has shown itself to be a revisionist power that requires the West as an enemy & 🇺🇦 as a conquest.
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StephengfHall @stephengfhall.bsky.social · 11/05/2025
Again Putin shows that he only wants to dictate his maximalist goals that leads to 🇺🇦 surrender. Nothing really new, but allows Putin to shift the ball - & likely blame for the failure of talks - to 🇺🇦. Peskov had temerity to claim that 30-day ceasefire was “new.” www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/202...
aljazeera.com
Putin proposes direct Russia-Ukraine talks in Istanbul on May 15
Offer comes after European leaders called for an unconditional 30-day truce to start on Monday.
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StephengfHall @stephengfhall.bsky.social · 11/05/2025
Having seen Starmer, Macron Tusk meet with Zelensky agree on a 30 day ceasefire and then call Trump to confirm it. Putin holds an early morning presser & completely ignores the 30 day ceasefire & proclaims new talks on solving “fundamentals of the conflict.”
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StephengfHall @stephengfhall.bsky.social · 17/04/2025
When: 29th April @ 6:30pm Where: Houses of Parliament RSVP: henryjacksonsociety.org/event/parliame…
henryjacksonsociety.org
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StephengfHall @stephengfhall.bsky.social · 17/04/2025
Looking forward to present ‘Russia Reality Check: How to Destabilise the Kremlin.’ To discuss the report’s call for a bold, proactive strategy to counter 🇷🇺 influence and challenge the Kremlin’s hybrid warfare, I’ll be joined by @khodorkovsky_en, Ksenia Maximova, from @rusdemsoc & @WillForster.
henryjacksonsociety.org
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StephengfHall @stephengfhall.bsky.social · 28/02/2025
Link to my piece is below 👇: thehill.com/opinion/inte...
thehill.com
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StephengfHall @stephengfhall.bsky.social · 28/02/2025
for what increasingly is a question if not if but when and where. Rewarding 🇷🇺 with new security architecture will not bring peace. It will show Putin he is right about Western weakness & he will look to undermine any organisation, weaken the West & have his sphere of influence.
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StephengfHall @stephengfhall.bsky.social · 28/02/2025
will be rewarded. Like it or not Europe especially has to step up & start re-building its military to support 🇺🇦 but also itself. The Kremlin follows signals & Europe re-militarising would be a strong signal. This build up will never be used but would be a strong deterrent
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StephengfHall @stephengfhall.bsky.social · 28/02/2025
My new piece in the @thehill @TheHillOpinion on how it would be a terrible idea to reward 🇷🇺 with changing Western security architecture & giving 🇷🇺 a seat @ the table. This would be Putin’s dream & would show that the West is weak & that taking territory & engaging in war crimes
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StephengfHall @stephengfhall.bsky.social · 20/02/2025
🇪🇺 should look to send peacekeepers to🇺🇦 with tacit 🇺🇸 support & promises to buy 🇺🇸. An air shield is also needed. 🇺🇦 should explore the resource deal again even if unpalatable. A 🇪🇺 prescience in 🇺🇦 would send a strong signal to 🇷🇺. Link below: irozhlas.cz/zpravy-svet/ct…. In 🇨🇿
irozhlas.cz
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StephengfHall @stephengfhall.bsky.social · 20/02/2025
Honoured to have contributed to this piece by @OrosovaEliska @iROZHLAScz. NATO would still be the best option for 🇺🇦, but now Trump has taken it off the table (for now) 🇪🇺 needs to do more. Rearmament & continued support for 🇺🇦 is crucial.
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StephengfHall @stephengfhall.bsky.social · 06/02/2025
Pleased to say that my new piece for @ConversationUK is out analysing how Lukashenka held onto power after exiling & jailing his opponents. Like many other things 🇺🇦 coming out of the war well will have an affect on 🇧🇾, hopefully for the better: theconversation.com/belarus-elec...
theconversation.com
Belarus election: how ‘Europe’s last dictator’ held onto power as his opponents were jailed or exiled
The Belarus president has been elected to serve a seventh term of office with 87% of the vote.
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StephengfHall @stephengfhall.bsky.social · 01/02/2025
Honoured to have written a piece in the first issue of the Belarusian Analytical Digest! @CSS_ETHZurich. I look at how the regime has developed since the 2020 protests and how the regime ensured the 2025 elections were a foregone conclusion. Link 👇 css.ethz.ch/content/dam/...
css.ethz.ch
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StephengfHall @stephengfhall.bsky.social · 16/01/2025
Really happy to have again been asked by @TechF24 @FRANCE24 to speak. Even better to be included in the same article with the brilliant & eloquent @jeff_hawn. Article is in 🇫🇷 www.france24.com/fr/europe/20...
france24.com
République populaire de Belgorod : quand le FSB transforme un mème en entité terroriste
Le FSB, le service russe de renseignement, a fait inscrire la République populaire de Belgorod sur la liste des organisations terroristes en Russie. Problème : cette nation n’existe pas. Il s’agit d’u...
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StephengfHall @stephengfhall.bsky.social · 03/01/2025
The best option is still to support 🇺🇦 to be able to talk from a position of strength & this has been the biggest failing of the West!
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StephengfHall @stephengfhall.bsky.social · 03/01/2025
We then discussed whether negotiations can happen. They can. But now 🇷🇺 doesn’t want them & is only interested in 🇺🇦s surrender. If negotiations do happen with Putin 🇷🇺 will do its utmost to destroy them.
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StephengfHall @stephengfhall.bsky.social · 03/01/2025
Spoke with @RachelSJohnson @LBC about @Jeremy_Hunt’s statement about sending 🇪🇺troops to🇺🇦 on a demilitarised zone. Great idea but unlikely to be accepted by 🇷🇺. We discussed whether Trump can solve the war in 24 hours. Spoiler: he won’t unless he gives 🇺🇦 to 🇷🇺.
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StephengfHall @stephengfhall.bsky.social · 27/12/2024
Two days after 🇷🇺 fires @ an 🇦🇿 plane causing it to crash & killing many onboard the 🇷🇺 air defence forces post a video shooting down 🎅 for New Year saying “we don’t need anything foreign in our skies.” @RT_com is the state media company behind this sick joke!
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StephengfHall @stephengfhall.bsky.social · 08/12/2024
It is unlikely 🇷🇺 will do so now. Putin may want to, but he doesn’t have the capacity with 🇷🇺 so invested in 🇺🇦. I suspect that 🇷🇺 is already talking to the rebel groups or contacts close to them to try to get an acceptable deal that allows 🇷🇺 to keep its military bases.
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StephengfHall @stephengfhall.bsky.social · 08/12/2024
Spoke to @gordonsmart @bbc5live about 🇷🇺 & 🇸🇾. Assad has disappeared & he may appear in 🇷🇺 but it is unlikely 🇷🇺 will try to form a rump Assad 🇸🇾 on the Mediterranean. Having spent an estimated $2.5 million daily over 9 years 🇷🇺 to support Assad & had to save him twice
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StephengfHall @stephengfhall.bsky.social · 06/12/2024
My new piece with my excellent colleague David Galbreath @PoLIS_Bath for @ConversationUK on Sergei Karaganov’s statements about how pushing NATO back to its 1997 borders is domestic signalling that 🇷🇺 is tough & to the west a trial ballon on talks theconversation.com/tough-talk-o...
theconversation.com
Tough talk on Nato from Putin and his proxies may hide a willingness to compromise
Recent messages coming out of Moscow have been tough, but the Russian president may be hoping to use rhetoric to encourage disunity within Nato.
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StephengfHall @stephengfhall.bsky.social · 17/11/2024
Finally! But only Kursk? www.nytimes.com/2024/11/17/u...
nytimes.com
Biden Allows Ukraine to Strike Russia With Long-Range U.S. Missiles
With two months left in office, the president for the first time authorized the Ukrainian military to use the system known as ATACMS to help defend its forces in the Kursk region of Russia.
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StephengfHall @stephengfhall.bsky.social · 10/10/2024
Following on: 🇷🇺 may arm the Houthis. Likely 🇮🇷 has money trouble & needs support, but so is 🇷🇺. Then onto Kaliningrad. 🇱🇹 is right to be worried but I don’t think 🇷🇺 will attack 🇱🇹 & all of NATO soon. Rather for now @ least Kaliningrad distracts 🇱🇹 &🇵🇱 from supporting 🇺🇦. These are all my musings.
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StephengfHall @stephengfhall.bsky.social · 10/10/2024
Today was a media day on the 🇷🇺 opposition uniting. Short answer is no & I’m far more pessimistic then previously. I spoke about Putin meeting Pezeshkian & what it means. Maybe 🇷🇺 will support H & H, call for a 🇵🇸 state, but probably won’t fearing 🇮🇱 will support 🇺🇦.
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