Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · 28/09/2026Guterres said our crises are tests of power. Trump confirmed it an hour later. Why the UN matters: www.navigatingthevortex.com/p/un-general... 000
Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · 15/09/2026BRICS agreed 140 paragraphs at New Delhi without naming the crisis splitting 5 of its 11 members. Only Russia gains. www.navigatingthevortex.com/p/brics-red-... #BRICS 000
Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · 18/08/2026Russia's missile output has roughly doubled. Ukraine's interceptor stockpile is down to ~40%. www.navigatingthevor... #Geopolitics 000
Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · 12/08/2026Iran's war was supposed to be Russia's biggest win. It's also becoming Ukraine's opening — Kyiv's Caspian strike hit the Iran-Russia supply chain directly. www.navigatingthevor... 000
Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · 31/07/2026My latest, with David Hastings Dunn: why Trump's stagecraft-over-statecraft funeral diplomacy with Zelensky and Netanyahu couldn't move the dial one either of the increasingly entangled wars in Ukraine and Iran. navigatingthevortex.substack.com/p/trump-zele...navigatingthevortex.substack.comTrump, Zelensky, and Netanyahu in Washington: funeral (of) diplomacy?By David Hastings Dunn & Stefan Wolff 000
Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · 09/07/2026My OSCE Moscow Mechanism findings, presented today: 20,610 deported, 2,264 returned. www.navigatingthevor... 010
Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · 08/07/2026New US strikes on Iran, a revoked oil waiver. The Islamabad MOU manages a pause, not a peace — Lebanon may be the bigger risk. www.navigatingthevor... 100
Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · 27/04/2026Orbán's political exit has unlocked €90 billion in EU loans for Ukraine, but deep divergence on membership terms remains -- and the consequences of a compromise could be disastrous for Ukraine and the EU alike: bit.ly/4d6SU8ybit.lyOrbán's election defeat frees €90 billion for Ukraine — but the harder question is EU membershipBy Tetyana Malyarenko and Stefan Wolff 000
Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · 16/04/2026Proudly announcing that my article with @dawnwalsh.bsky.social on "External Involvement in Peace Agreements" has just been published in Nationalism and Ethnic Politics and is free to read and download here: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.....tandfonline.comExternal Involvement in Peace Agreements: Providing Physical Security or Facilitating Governance?Powersharing peace agreements are said to require extensive and prolonged external involvement to facilitate shared governance. However, no comprehensive comparison exists of the roles provided for... 012
Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · 16/04/2026Ceasefires tend to collapse as a result of minor incidents that then spiral out of control—my interview with Trevor Phillips on The Times at One: www.navigatingthevortex.com/p/is-the-ame...navigatingthevortex.com"Is the American strategy working or flailing?" — Iran, the blockade, and ChinaThe Iran–US ceasefire expires 22 April. Stefan Wolff on back-channel talks, the blockade risk, and why China is failing its global leadership test. 000
Reposted by Stefan WolffForeign Policy Centre @fpcthinktank.bsky.social · 25/03/2026🇲🇩 🇪🇺 New Op-Ed | Standing up to the Kremlin: Lessons from Moldova for defeating Russian election interference By Philip J. Javens & Prof @stefwolff.bsky.social How did Moldova withstand large-scale #Russian FIMI in its 2025 elections? 📖 Read ⬇️ fpc.org.uk/op-ed-standi...fpc.org.ukOp-ed | Standing up to the Kremlin: Lessons from Moldova for Defeating Russian Election Interference - The Foreign Policy CentreForeign Information Manipulation and Interference (FIMI) has been high on the agenda of liberal democracies for years.[1] The European External Action Service has just published its fourth annual repo... 063
Reposted by Stefan WolffPSA Ethnopolitics Specialist Group @psaethnopolitics.bsky.social · 03/04/2026In addition to our three panels, Ethnopolitics SG emeritus convenors @stefwolff.bsky.social and @tagarin.bsky.social took part alongside @neophytosloizides.bsky.social as discussants at the launch of John McGarry's (@queensucsdd.bsky.social) magisterial new book, The Politics of Domination. 121
Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · 12/03/2026Always a pleasure to cooperate with @rgwhitman.bsky.social... and intellectually productive: 021
Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · 05/03/2026Russia is a likely winner of the war against Iran, but only in the short term: bit.ly/4rUzby4 000
Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · 24/02/2026A reconstituted European alliance, with a coalition at its heart that is not just willing but also capable of deterring Russia, is necessary and possible: bit.ly/40sGX61navigatingthevortex.comAfter four years of war, an end of the fighting in Ukraine is not in sightBut Kyiv's western allies should no longer be in any doubt about what to do. 000
Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · 23/02/2026We have just published Episode 2 of Navigating the Vortex | Ethnopolitics Edition, in which we talk with Tamirace Fakhoury and John Nagle about their work on power sharing and contentious politics in divided societies: bit.ly/4tI9gea 000
Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · 22/02/2026The OSCE – notwithstanding the organisation’s ongoing crisis – still represents an important forum to articulate and negotiate participating States’ national interests: bit.ly/46jVdS4navigatingthevortex.comWhy it's worth saving the Organization for Security and Co-operation in EuropeAnd what role the UK can play in restoring the organisation's operational effectiveness 000
Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · 20/02/2026The inaugural meeting of the Board of Peace will mostly be remembered for its chairman-for-life threatening Iran with war: bit.ly/4tUf44zbit.lyPay-as-you-mediate: Iran, Ukraine and Donald Trump's board of peaceConflict settlements are not real-estate deals. 000
Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · 12/02/2026Putin may think that he has successfully tricked Trump into doing his bidding. But on this occasion, Zelensky may have outsmarted them both, albeit at the price of the war against his country continuing. navigatingthevortex.substack.com/p/the-five-p...navigatingthevortex.substack.comThe five problems with Trump's latest Ukraine peace plan that will only prolong the warBy Tetyana Malyarenko and Stefan Wolff 022
Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · 10/02/2026Proudly announcing my latest co-production which can be pre-ordered here: academic.oup.com/book/62306 022
Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · 05/02/2026Claims of progress in the negotiations in Abu Dhabi are therefore at best over-optimistic and at worst self-deluding: bit.ly/3Mfn2E7bit.lyFarcical peace talks continue in Abu Dhabi as Russia tries to bomb and freeze Ukraine into submissionRussia, Ukraine and the US have met for a second time in as many weeks to discuss a possible cessation of hostilities. 000
Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · 27/01/2026After two rounds of talks in Abu Dhabi, it remains unclear whether an actual negotiation process will now get under way between Russia and Ukraine and what its format and direction will be: bit.ly/4bVyCif 000
Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · 26/01/2026Europe and its few scattered allies elsewhere need to start acting as if they were alone in a hostile world—because they are: bit.ly/4pVO0hVbit.lyTrump's performance at Davos underscored America's diminishing trustworthiness and dependabilityThe consequences for Britain, the EU, and Ukraine are obvious and unpleasant. 000
Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · 25/01/2026Current transatlantic de-escalation notwithstanding, has Europe done enough to persuade President Trump to change course permanently over Greenland? bit.ly/4adJgj5navigatingthevortex.comEurope's push-back over Greenland forced a Trump climb-down — for now.But the reprieve is likely only temporary. 001
Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · 15/01/2026The war in Ukraine is likely to mark a few more milestones before there is another opportunity to prove again that aggression never pays: bit.ly/4pCQOABnavigatingthevortex.comRussia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine now outlasts the Soviet fight against Nazi GermanyWhat does history tell us about Kyiv’s prospects? 020
Reposted by Stefan WolffThe Debate - France 24 @f24debate.france24.com · 07/01/2026🇺🇸🇬🇱 The U.S. still depends on defense cooperation with Europe, warns @stefwolff.bsky.social, with any move on #Greenland carrying serious security risks. 032
Reposted by Stefan Wolff@dreid63 @dreid63.bsky.social · 04/01/2026Good discussion and analysis here. @aljazeera.com @stefwolff.bsky.social @drernestocast.bsky.social @charlesshapiro.bsky.socialyoutu.beWhat might the US do next after Venezuela? | Inside StoryYouTube video by Al Jazeera English 033
Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · 05/01/2026The law of the jungle is back — and the US, and much of the rest of the world, will ultimately pay a heavy price for it: bit.ly/3YsbbVVbit.lyTrump's Venezuela raid foreshadows more turbulence in a new 'great power' carve-up of the worldIt signals the return of the law of the jungle for which the US, and much of the rest of the world, will ultimately pay a heavy price. 010
Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · 04/01/2026In light of recent US experiences in Afghanistan and Iraq, more instability, not less, will be the likely result of the capture of Maduro: bit.ly/4qFYMtC 020
Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · 26/12/2025The fighting in Ukraine is likely to continue unabated for the time being as neither of the warring sides, nor their backers, appear exhausted enough for peace: bit.ly/4azaQrUbit.lyThe fall of Siversk caps a difficult year for UkraineWhat the end of the war will look like is as unclear as when and how the sides will get there. 000
Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · 20/12/2025Internal divisions over Ukraine funding and Mercosur trade deal expose limitations of EU leadership in a world carved up by Washington, Moscow and Beijing: bit.ly/3MEtWD1navigatingthevortex.comA fudge on Ukraine and a delay on Mercosur: how the EU procrastinates and fails to prove Trump wrongBy Richard Whitman & Stefan Wolff 000
Reposted by Stefan WolffRichard G. Whitman @rgwhitman.bsky.social · 19/12/2025EU agrees €90 billion loan to Ukraine, but squabbles over frozen Russian assets expose the bloc’s deep divisions - my analysis with @stefwolff.bsky.social theconversation.com/eu-agrees-90...theconversation.comEU agrees €90 billion loan to Ukraine, but squabbles over frozen Russian assets expose the bloc’s deep divisionsTo placate pro-Moscow governments in Hungary, Slovakia and Czechia, the EU had to include an ‘opt-out’ clause for its support for Ukraine. 032
Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · 11/12/2025For Europe, deterring Russia and appeasing the US have become existential priorities in a bigger game in which Ukraine might end up as yet another bargaining chip: bit.ly/4abQ8xVbit.lyNew US national security strategy adds to Ukraine’s woes and exacerbates Europe’s dilemmasBy Tetyana Malyarenko & Stefan Wolff 011
Reposted by Stefan WolffZentrum für Osteuropa- und internationale Studien (ZOiS) @zois.bsky.social · 11/12/2025Russian repression against Crimean #Tatars in occupied Ukraine follows a pattern. Using a new geo-coded event dataset, researchers Elmira Muratova & @felixschulte.bsky.social map human rights violations & explain why repression is often carried out on Thursdays. More on the #KonKoop DataLab blog ⤵️konkoop.deThursdays are for Searches: The Russian Repression Calendar in Occupied Crimea - KonKoopAuthoritarian control follows a grim calculus. The literature on state repression shows that coercion is not random but operates under a highly strategic logic. Russia’s repressive campaign in its occupied territories in Ukraine is no exception. Shortly after the illegal occupation and annexation of Crimea in February and March 2014,… 11311
Reposted by Stefan WolffForeign Policy Centre @fpcthinktank.bsky.social · 01/12/2025🔎🇬🇪 New Expert Briefing | Georgia’s Political Landscape in Focus: A critical point for #democracy On 11 Nov, FPC convened a parliamentary roundtable chaired by @joepowell.bsky.social MP featuring: Eka Gigauri Nino Evgenidze Prof @stefwolff.bsky.social 📖 Read key insights: fpc.org.uk/wp-content/u... 132
Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · 27/11/2025Available now: The first episode of Navigating the Vortex | Ethnopolitics Edition featuring an interview with @georgekyris.bsky.social on the recognition of Palestine: bit.ly/4rp2ZTqbit.lyNavigating the Vortex | Ethnopolitics Edition | Episode 1George Kyris, The Recognition of a Right to Statehood and Palestine 031
Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · 26/11/2025The amateurish nature of a process that produced Trump’s 28-point plan should be the real worry for Ukraine and its partners: bit.ly/483wTFpbit.lyTrump’s 28-point plan was the result of a well-timed Russian move.For now, however, it is unlikely to work out the way the Kremlin had planned. 010
Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · 22/11/2025Talk of Ukraine’s political and military collapse may turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy playing into Putin's hands: bit.ly/4rf5bwVbit.lyAs US and Russia negotiate again behind Kyiv’s back, Ukrainian and European weakness is exposedBy Tetyana Malyarenko and Stefan Wolff 000
Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · 16/11/2025The continuation of Russia’s war against Ukraine serves Chinese interests in several important ways: bit.ly/4p66agW 131
Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · 15/11/2025Tolerating corruption is a luxury that Ukraine can no longer afford if it wants to survive as an independent country — the latest from Tetyana Malyarenko and me: bit.ly/3WXZJk5bit.lyUkraine's latest corruption scandal not only threatens to derail Zelensky’s government. It also undermines Kyiv's war effort.By Tetyana Malyarenko & Stefan Wolff 021
Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · 06/11/2025The EU needs to decide how to balance holding the line on its membership standards while enabling Ukraine to hold the line against Russia: bit.ly/47FcYeqbit.lyThe EU's assessment of Ukraine's progress toward membership is decidedly mixed. The report caps a bad month for Kyiv.By Tetyana Malyarenko & Stefan Wolff 010
Reposted by Stefan WolffCouncil on Geostrategy @congeostrategy.bsky.social · 31/10/2025🇬🇧 should ‘think beyond the current geographic extent of the coalition, and consider how links with nations in the South Caucasus and Central Asia can be consolidated and expanded to strengthen it,’ says @stefwolff.bsky.social, @unibirmingham.bsky.social #BigAsk #BritainsWorldbritainsworld.org.ukHow should Britain cultivate the Coalition of the Willing?The Big Ask | No. 44.2025 021
Reposted by Stefan WolffJonty Este @jonty98.bsky.social · 22/10/2025Great piece from @stefwolff.bsky.social on @ConversationUK. Thanks to @alastaircampbell2.bsky.social and @rory-stewart.bsky.social for the mention. As ever, Stefan's analysis of thie complex and fast-moving issue is spot on. theconversation.com/trumps-heate...theconversation.comTrump’s heated White House meeting with Zelensky shows how well Putin is playing the US presidentIt looked as if the US might supply Ukraine with game-changing new weapons. Then the Russian president phoned Donald Trump. 2420074
Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · 28/10/2025As Trump flip-flops and the coalition of the willing is unlikely to go beyond securing Ukraine’s immediate survival, a credible pathway to ending the war with a just and stable peace is still lacking -- my latest analysis with @rgwhitman.bsky.social for @navvortex.bsky.social : bit.ly/43IOKP9navigatingthevortex.comDespite another week of diplomatic whiplash, an end to the fighting in Ukraine is not in sightBy Richard Whitman & Stefan Wolff 031
Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · 21/10/2025Three key take-aways from the Trump-Putin-Zelensky diplomatic flurry over the past few weeks: bit.ly/3KY7HqK 000
Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · 20/10/2025Unsurprisingly, Putin gets Trump to pivot again: bit.ly/42NC9Kd 011
Reposted by Stefan WolffPolitical Studies Association @polstudiesassoc.bsky.social · 14/10/2025Following the announcement of this year’s #NobelPeacePrize winner, María Corina Machado, leader of Venzuela’s opposition movement, PSA Trustee @stefwolff.bsky.social reflects on the competition and controversies surrounding the prize @uk.theconversation.combuff.lyDonald Trump would have been an unsuitable choice for the 2025 Nobel peace prize – but he may be a more serious contender in 2026The peace prize rules made it hard for the US president to win this year. But that doesn’t rule him out for 2026. 001
Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · 16/10/2025Recognising a Russian sphere of influence would most likely encourage dreams of further expansion in the Kremlin: bit.ly/4hfvKgV 000
Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · 14/10/2025I was interviewed yesterday by @newstalkfm.bsky.social on Trump's Middle East diplomacy www.newstalk.com/podcasts/new...newstalk.comCould Dead Cat Diplomacy Actually Work? | NewstalkIt was an extraordinary day in the Middle East. Hostages returned home to scenes of jubilation an... 010
Stefan Wolff @stefwolff.bsky.social · 11/10/2025If Trump wants to be a serious contender for the 2026 Nobel peace Prize, he needs to double down on his peace-making efforts and prevent his grandiose claims from being proven wrong: bit.ly/4q1ntkN 020
