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steber2.bsky.social

@steber2.bsky.social
174 followers 85 following 1.5K posts
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steber2.bsky.social @steber2.bsky.social · 2h
DB pensions becoming guaranteed pensions is what made private sector DB schemes untenable for almost everyone, the final and biggest straw being insurance exit debts - people don't normally want to pay the cost of insuring their own pensions when they're decades from retirement.
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steber2.bsky.social @steber2.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
GDP isn't higher than we thought it was. It's the same, but we now think people were working less than previous estimates, so productivity must have grown faster.
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Reposted by @steber2.bsky.social
Benjamin Lauderdale @benlauderdale.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Exciting tax incentive for investing in solid gold toilets.
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steber2.bsky.social @steber2.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
I'm not a fan of the Ponzi scheme argument for unsustainable state pension increases; benefitting today's pensioners at workers' expense, in the hope that today's workers get to screw over their kids even more when they retire. Instead, put that money into saving for their own retirements.
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steber2.bsky.social @steber2.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
I've not seen compelling evidence that pension contributions need to go up significantly, particularly if we had a better decumulation product (hopefully R-CDC will get us closer). The lowest earners already seem likely to be worse off before retirement than after, why exacerbate that?
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steber2.bsky.social @steber2.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Yes, in return for being taxed a second time when the pension's received. The principle being that people are taxed based on how well off they are when they receive & can spend their pension. If you break that principle, you're happy for pensions going to poor pensioners to be taxed at higher rates
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steber2.bsky.social @steber2.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
What I found particularly interesting was that a majority are even in favour of a double lock, of inflation and 2.5%.
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steber2.bsky.social @steber2.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
You don't care what the truth / reality is, you just want to be angry about this (good) policy?
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steber2.bsky.social @steber2.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Forcing them to litter pick immediately, rather than spend a bit of time finding a job which best uses their skills, is going to cut productivity.
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steber2.bsky.social @steber2.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Absolutely. What I find particularly incredible is how horrendously inaccurately the proposal has been reported, and how good the public's response still is.
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steber2.bsky.social @steber2.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
That argument 's more difficult to make when unemployment's at / close to historical lows. If you try to e.g. force unemployed doctors to spend their time picking litter rather than updatimg their medical skills / applying for medical jobs, you're going to lower production.
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steber2.bsky.social @steber2.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Burnham's conference speech didn't say anything about scrapping triple locks - it explicitly said that Labour will use a triple lock from 2030 onwards. I agree that Labour's approach to trans rights in government has been horrendous and incredibly damaging. labour.org.uk/updates/stor...
We promised in our manifesto to keep the Triple Lock unchanged throughout this Parliament. 

I will honour that promise.

I will honour that promise, and I will do more.

That promise will take the state pension to a record high.

From there, in April 2030, we will adjust it.

The state pension will continue to rise every year at least by prices or 2.5%.

And it will hold its value relative to earnings over time so that pensioners will always share in the rising prosperity of the nation.
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steber2.bsky.social @steber2.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
The first YouGov poll question suggests majority support for a double lock of inflation + 2.5%, as a standalone policy before mentioning anything about social care. Which is the result I find particularly interesting.
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steber2.bsky.social @steber2.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
No one's weakening the triple lock. We currently have a triple ratchet, not a lock - state pensions grow faster than inflation, faster than average earnings, and faster than 2.5%. Burnham's proposals are the most generous ones which could reasonably be called a triple lock.
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steber2.bsky.social @steber2.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Survation's poll suggests that the public is massively in favour of Burnham's adjustments to the triple lock, assuming it funds significant levels of social care. YouGov's poll suggests there's even majority support for a double lock of inflation and 2.5%, which is really quite something!
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steber2.bsky.social @steber2.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
No one's suggested scrapping the triple lock. www.gov.uk/government/n...
The current Triple Lock will be maintained throughout this Parliament, increasing the State Pension by over £2,000. From April 2030, the adjusted Triple Lock will mean the State Pension continues to rise by 2.5% or inflation - whichever is higher – and by even more if that is required to maintain its value relative to earnings. This will ensure the living standards of pensioners keep up with the rest of the population. For example, if the value of the State Pension is around a third of average earnings by 2030/31, as average earnings rise, the State Pension will rise in line with that too.

This adjusted Triple Lock will mean that if inflation spikes, pensioners will be protected. If wages rise, pensioners will share in that, with the State Pension tracking earnings over time. Nobody’s pension will ever go down. And State Pensions will be put on a sustainable footing for decades to come.
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steber2.bsky.social @steber2.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
If we want to tax the rich more, just raise their income tax rates.
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steber2.bsky.social @steber2.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Pension tax relief isn't a giveaway, it's taxing people based on how well off they are when they receive and can spend their pensions. If we want to scrap it, it means: 1. Taxing poor pensioners more, if they used to be better off; and 2. Arbitrarily tax-incentivising partial over full retirements.
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steber2.bsky.social @steber2.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
It's a full triple lock - state pensions rise faster than inflation, faster than 2.5% p.a., and keep up with average earnings. It replaces the triple ratchet we have today (triple "lock" was always an intentionally deceptive name for it), which ensures state pensions rise faster than all 3 of them.
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steber2.bsky.social @steber2.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Assuming our goal is to reduce poverty, which of these groups should we prioritise first for more Government spending?
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steber2.bsky.social @steber2.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
We have close to historic low levels of unemployment. If we can get that down further, amazing - we can then talk about how to spend the proceeds. But it seems bold to assume that Government telling people to consume more, will always cause a corresponding reduction in unemployment?
Graph of unemployment rates.
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steber2.bsky.social @steber2.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
That seems to be our fundamental difference of views. You believe there's no limit to government spending, I believe there's finite resources and inherent trade-offs. I would absolutely love your view to be the correct one, but it seems tragically overly optimistic.
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steber2.bsky.social @steber2.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
A very technical change: the earnings link will be applied cumulatively rather than annually. As you say, that'll mean it works more like how most people assume it already works.
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steber2.bsky.social @steber2.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
I'm completely against non-pensioner benefits being cut. The less pressure there is to cut their benefits, the better.
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steber2.bsky.social @steber2.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
That's incorrect. Pensioner benefits will be at least as generous as they are today, yes. To make that more specific: pensioner benefits will be able to buy more stuff then they can today, and they'll grow at least as fast as average earnings.
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steber2.bsky.social @steber2.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Amazing. Start by increasing non-pensioner benefits until they catch up with pensioner benefits, with no consequences, then we can increase all benefits further.
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steber2.bsky.social @steber2.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
There are no savings vs today's benefits. There's a saving vs a world where we maintain the current triple "lock" ratchet for longer than Labour have ever committed to. www.gov.uk/government/p...
gov.uk
State Pension uprating
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steber2.bsky.social @steber2.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
For an incorrect summary of Labour's proposals? www.gov.uk/government/n...
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steber2.bsky.social @steber2.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
It's fine to argue for the state pension to become more generous, once other benefits have caught up to it.
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steber2.bsky.social @steber2.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Absolutely on the benefits front, at least maintain and in the short to medium term start increasing the generosity of non-pensioner benefits.
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steber2.bsky.social @steber2.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
It's not bringing anyone down, it's literally as a bare minimum protecting what they have already.
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steber2.bsky.social @steber2.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
No one's proposed abolishing the triple lock for state pensions, that I've heard. Labour's proposal is to keep a triple lock for state pensions.
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steber2.bsky.social @steber2.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
I guess, in that ultimately I don't want there to be any poverty. So pensioners would have the highest poverty rates, as would every other group - 0%.
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steber2.bsky.social @steber2.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
I am advocating for everyone, starting with those most in need. I completely understand the appeal of believing that Government can spend whatever it wants, without any limits. If that's true, I'll be delighted. Unfortunately, in the real world there's finite resources and trade offs.
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steber2.bsky.social @steber2.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
They said "how it ranks against European equivalents", I said how it ranks. Somehow you're saying they was irrelevant?
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steber2.bsky.social @steber2.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
True, it was a vague statement I was clarifying rather than a question. I'll give you that technicality.
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steber2.bsky.social @steber2.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
It's in my comment immediately above it, which I suggested reading for context. bsky.app/profile/steb...
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steber2.bsky.social @steber2.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
I'd invite you to read it again. That's almost a verbatim quote. bsky.app/profile/benm...
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steber2.bsky.social @steber2.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
No one's saying that pensioners should be brought down / have their benefits cut. I'm saying prioritise other age groups for any extra money, until they've caught up, and then we can increase all benefits together.
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steber2.bsky.social @steber2.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
The second question is literally the one I was replying to (see also my comment above it, for context). bsky.app/profile/goth...
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steber2.bsky.social @steber2.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
He asked where the UK ranks among European equivalents. I'm saying, "better off than about 2/3 of it, if you're a low earner".
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steber2.bsky.social @steber2.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
A quick Google suggests that the countries I've mentioned have a total population of about 290 million, vs about 440 million for Europe as a whole (assuming we're not counting Russia, Turkey or the UK as European). I.e. my list covers about 2/3 of Europeans.
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steber2.bsky.social @steber2.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
I don't see anyone suggesting that defence spending should grow faster than GDP forever, no. Whereas the question I was answering was, why can't we keep the triple lock forever - the answer being because its cost would then grow faster than GDP forever, which isn't impossible.
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steber2.bsky.social @steber2.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
It was a pre-planned policy, that's been stuck with since, not an ad-hoc one time adjustment. No one's suggesting to cut the state pension. The plan's to keep increasing it faster than inflation, and making sure it at least keeps up with average earnings.
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steber2.bsky.social @steber2.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
All the countries I mentioned are European.
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steber2.bsky.social @steber2.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
The minimum wage changes every year, rising every time average wages do, it's set in line with 67% of median wages, a historic high.
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steber2.bsky.social @steber2.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Has fallen from 8% of GDP in the late 50's to less than 3% today. I'm not aware of anyone suggesting it should rise faster than GDP growth forever.
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steber2.bsky.social @steber2.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
There's a big overlap between OECD and Europe. Looking at low earners, seemingly the focus of this discussion, countries below the UK include Lithuania, Ireland, Estonia, Poland, Switzerland, Latvia, Germany, Norway, Finland, Sweden, France and Italy.
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steber2.bsky.social @steber2.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Eg consider the following example, under the current system: Year 1: Prices rise 3%, earnings rise 5%, state pension rises 5%. Year 2: Prices rise 5%, earnings 3%, state pension 5%. Overall: Prices have risen 8%, earnings 8%, state pension's risen 10%.
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steber2.bsky.social @steber2.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
It ensures that state pensions rise faster than both inflation and average earnings. Growing faster than earnings means that it takes up an increasing share of national production, which can't continue forever as eventually we run out of national production.
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