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Forecast, logged Sep 27. Gears of War: E-Day launches Oct 6 with 47,438 followers. Of 85 tracked launches with a similar following, 8 in 10 peaked between 742 and 71,073 players in week one. Graded Oct 13. Think the other way? Log your call: steammaho.com/reports/beat #steam #gamedev #predictions

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steammaho.com @steammaho.com · 02/10/2026

Receipt. Logged CONTROL Resonant on Sep 14 at 45,334 followers: of 79 tracked launches with a similar following, 8 in 10 peaked between 709 and 68,687 in week one. It launched Sep 24 and peaked at 42,799. Hit. Cozy Game Restoration, logged the same day, moved to Nov 4. #steam #gamedev #predictions

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steammaho.com @steammaho.com · 01/10/2026

Receipt. Logged SILENT HILL: Townfall on Sep 14 at 19,609 followers: of 184 tracked launches with a similar following, 8 in 10 peaked between 92 and 22,936 in week one. It launched Sep 24 and peaked at 8,318. Hit. Every forecast, graded: steammaho.com/reports/scorecard #steam #gamedev #predictions

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steammaho.com @steammaho.com · 30/09/2026

Where Steam relaxes. "Relaxing", "cozy" or "chill" shows up in 29 of every 100 reviews of farming games, 28 in hidden object games, 20 in pet care games. In melee combat games it is 2 in 100, in team shooters 1. Same map, 1.46 million reviews, one word. #steam #gamedev #map

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steammaho.com @steammaho.com · 29/09/2026

Postcard from the deckbuilder region: 1,182 games, capital Slay the Spire. Releases per year went from 12 in 2014 to 246 in 2025. Of the 864 games released 2020 to 2025, 20 in 100 passed $100k and 7 in 100 passed $1M. The money went to the games who got there first. #steam #gamedev #map

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steammaho.com @steammaho.com · 28/09/2026

Players describe games by naming other games. Dark Souls is named in the reviews of 6,005 other games, one in ten, and only 19 in 100 of those mentions near its own region. 394 reviews say "the Dark Souls of" something: puzzle games 18, platformers 11, racing 8, cooking 3. #steam #gamedev #darksouls

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steammaho.com @steammaho.com · 27/09/2026

Forecast logged Sep 21. ACE COMBAT 8: Wings of Theve launches Thursday with 47,935 followers. Of 81 tracked of similar launches 8 in 10 peaked between 771 and 68,687 players in week one. Graded Oct 9. Also Rayman Legends Retold 45 to 9,731 steammaho.com/reports/scorecard #steam #gamedev #prediction

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steammaho.com @steammaho.com · 26/09/2026

Thank you. It started with the idea to analyze Steam games by their game mechanics instead of genres or tags. Once every game is a list of mechanics, the distance between two games is measurable. The relief came later. I like to play with this 2d map and see what interesting it can give.

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steammaho.com @steammaho.com · 26/09/2026

Steam games as an atlas. 83,701 games placed by design similarity: the closer two sit, the more mechanics and tags they share. Relief = how densely games are packed. Capital = its most-reviewed game whose tags carry the region's name. Poster: steammaho.com/static/map/atlas_v3_1.jpg #steam #gamedev

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steammaho.com @steammaho.com · 26/09/2026

Forecast, Sep 21. Minecraft Dungeons II launches Tuesday with 20,625 followers. Of 188 tracked launches with a similar following 8 in 10 peaked between 108 and 23,030 players in week one. Graded Oct 7. Also: Dynasty Warriors 3 Remastered, 45 to 8,880. steammaho.com/reports/scorecard #gamedev #steam

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steammaho.com @steammaho.com · 25/09/2026

Receipt. We logged Trails in the Sky 2nd Chapter on Sep 14 at 12,650 followers: of 262 tracked launches with a similar following, 8 in 10 peaked between 55 and 12,776 in week one. It launched Sep 17 and peaked at 15,335. Miss, 20% over the ceiling. #steam #gamedev #prediction

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steammaho.com @steammaho.com · 24/09/2026

Wishlists aren't public. We estimate them from Steam's top-wishlist chart, which ranks the 4,500 most wishlisted of about 61,000 upcoming pages. Since June, 937 of 6,099 launches were on it at launch, and 3 of the 700 with a page under two weeks old.

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steammaho.com @steammaho.com · 24/09/2026

Yes, the Steam follow button: we read the game's community hub member count on launch day. We have it for four launches in five, whatever their size, so that curve covers young pages too. And it's available when the page goes public, not when review clears. Good luck with review.

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steammaho.com @steammaho.com · 24/09/2026

Median followers on launch day, by how long the page was up: under two weeks, 2. Up to two months, 3. Two to three months, 11. Over three months, 49. Established publishers who rushed a page out: 7 followers, 12 reviews, against 170 for their peers. #steam #followers #gamedev

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steammaho.com @steammaho.com · 23/09/2026

The Steam launch pattern is the two-week page: 1,714 games since April, nearly a third of launches, put the store page up 4 to 14 days before release. One in five reached ten reviews. Page up two to three months: 43%. Same price band, same first-time developers, the curve holds. #steam #gamedev

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steammaho.com @steammaho.com · 22/09/2026

Shadow drops don't happen on Steam. Of 5,911 games released April to mid-August whose store page we watched appear, 43 launched with a page under four days old. The list: mod kits, server tools, re-releases of old games, one free incremental. No major publisher did it. #steam #gamedev #shadowdrops

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steammaho.com @steammaho.com · 21/09/2026

We read the player count of every Steam game with 50+ reviews: 44,472 games. Sunday's reading: 53% had nobody playing at that moment. 29% had 1 to 9 players, 12% had 10 to 99, 657 games had 1,000 or more. Games with 50 to 99 reviews: 82% empty. Games with 10,000+: 1% #steam #gamedev #graveyard

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steammaho.com @steammaho.com · 21/09/2026

Forecast, logged Sep14. CONTROL Resonant launches Sep24 with 45334 followers. Of 79 tracked launches with a similar following, 8 in 10 peaked between 709 and 68687 players in week one. Graded Oct 2. Also logged: Cozy Game Restoration 45 to 8659. steammaho.com/reports/scorecard #gamedev #predictions

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steammaho.com @steammaho.com · 19/09/2026

Forecast, logged Sep 14. SILENT HILL: Townfall launches Wednesday with 19,609 followers. Of 184 tracked launches with a similar following, 8 in 10 peaked between 92 and 22,936 players in week one. We grade it Oct 1, hit or miss, on the public scorecard: steammaho.com/reports/scorecard

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steammaho.com @steammaho.com · 18/09/2026

Copies sold per Steam review, 230 games with disclosed sales. Under 1,000 sales: 10 per review. 1,000 to 9,999: 32. 10,000 to 49,999: 57. 50,000 to 99,999: 63. Past a million: 41. Small games get more reviews per copy. One number for all games misses at both ends. steammaho.com/reports/scorecard

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steammaho.com @steammaho.com · 17/09/2026

WWII games released since 2023 reach 1,000 reviews 79% more often than games of the same genre, age and price model usually do. Mythology: 53% more often. Historical: 42%. Cyberpunk: 29% less often. 1980s: 45% less. Setting is its own effect, separate from genre. steammaho.com/news

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steammaho.com @steammaho.com · 16/09/2026

Receipt. On Sep 3 we logged Halloween: The Game at 21,306 followers: 8 in 10 similar launches peaked between 103 and 23,030. It peaked at 33,639. Miss, 46% above the ceiling. Our follower count was 23 days old at logging (Steam throttles those reads); counts are now refreshed within days of launch.

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steammaho.com @steammaho.com · 15/09/2026

Forecast, logged Sep 14. Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War IV launches Thursday with 89,619 followers. Of 44 tracked launches with a similar following, 8 in 10 peaked between 2,690 and 85,081 players in week one. Graded Sep 25. Also logged: Trails in the Sky 2nd Chapter, 55 to 12,776.

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steammaho.com @steammaho.com · 14/09/2026

Receipt. On Sep 3 we logged Dungeon Settlers at 13,573 followers: of 231 tracked launches with a similar following, 8 in 10 peaked between 68 and 12,776 players in week one. It launched Sep 4 and peaked at 4,953. Inside the range. Every forecast, graded: steammaho.com/reports/scorecard

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steammaho.com @steammaho.com · 13/09/2026

More endings, higher score: 81.4% positive with one ending, 84.7% with two or three, 85.8% with four to nine, 86.4% with ten or more. Ending complaints: 0.4% of reviews for one-ending games, 4.4% for ten or more. steammaho.com/news/story-structure-and-reception-on-11-472-steam-games #gamedev

steammaho.com

Story structure and reception on 11,472 Steam games

Research note. How a game's story is wired against review score, playtime and what reviews complain about, with controls for size, age, price model and genre.

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steammaho.com @steammaho.com · 12/09/2026

Games built around cooking earn less than games with cooking as a side feature. Steam games with 1,000+ reviews: median lifetime revenue $0.8M for 44 cooking games, $1.8M for 203 games with cooking on the side. Across 624 mechanics, the side-feature version wins 90% of the time. #gamedev

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steammaho.com @steammaho.com · 11/09/2026

Sci-fi horror games reach 1,000 reviews 34% more often than horror games of the same age and price usually do. Horror set in a realistic place: 18% less often. Horror isn't the crowded part. Horror in a realistic setting is. #gamedev #horrorgames #gamedev #horrorgames

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steammaho.com @steammaho.com · 10/09/2026

How a story is wired vs how players rate it, on 11,472 Steam games: stories that branch and rejoin around the player's choices score +2.4 points over linear ones. Games whose tags promise a story but have none: −3.8. steammaho.com/news/story-structure-and-reception-on-11-472-steam-games #gamedev

steammaho.com

Story structure and reception on 11,472 Steam games

Research note. How a game's story is wired against review score, playtime and what reviews complain about, with controls for size, age, price model and genre.

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steammaho.com @steammaho.com · 09/09/2026

Setting, with genre held fixed: historical settings beat their genre's expectation by 29%, mythology by 26%, World War II by 37%. Fantasy and science fiction sit exactly at expectation. steammaho.com/news/what-a-game-s-setting-predicts-on-steam-once-genre-is-held-fixed #gamedev

steammaho.com

What a game's setting predicts on Steam, once genre is held fixed

Research note. Setting and mood tags against the chance of reaching 1,000 reviews, controlled for genre, release period, price model and tag completeness.

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steammaho.com @steammaho.com · 08/09/2026

Dungeon Settlers launches Wednesday with 13,573 followers. Of 231 tracked launches with a similar following, 8 in 10 opened between 68 and 12,776 peak players in week one. Logged before launch on our public scorecard; graded the week after. steammaho.com/reports/scorecard #gamedev

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steammaho.com @steammaho.com · 07/09/2026

Everwind went into launch with 101,271 followers and peaked at 2,690 players. How to Fish went in with 8,037 and peaked at 373,971 A following buys attention, not a number. Both are misses on our forecast scorecard, published next to the 9 of 12 we got right steammaho.com/reports/scorecard #gamedev

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steammaho.com @steammaho.com · 06/09/2026

Halloween: The Game launches Monday with 21,306 followers. Of 166 tracked launches with a similar following, 8 in 10 opened between 103 and 23,030 peak players in week one. Logged before launch on our public scorecard; graded next week, hit or miss. steammaho.com/reports/scorecard #gamedev

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steammaho.com @steammaho.com · 05/09/2026

Prone aiming + recoil control appear together in 18 Steam games with 1,000+ reviews. Zero of them earned under $1M. Median lifetime revenue: $28M. PUBG, Squad, Battlefield 1, Call of Duty WWII. Nobody small ships this pair. steammaho.com/news/the-mechanic-combos-only-blockbusters-ship-2 #gamedev

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steammaho.com @steammaho.com · 05/09/2026

Every dot is a released game with 10+ reviews. The 90 region names were not written by anyone: each region is named by the most distinctive features its games share. The year filter shows genres appearing: battle royale after 2017, bullet heaven after 2022.

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steammaho.com @steammaho.com · 05/09/2026

We put 84,000 Steam games on one map, arranged by the mechanics they share instead of genre. Games that play alike sit next to each other. Zoom out for continents of design, zoom in for individual games. steammaho.com/map

steammaho.com

The Map of Steam — 80,000 games arranged by design

Games that play alike sit close together. Zoom from continents of genres down to individual games; watch the map grow year by year.

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steammaho.com @steammaho.com · 04/09/2026

Out of 84,321 Steam games, Hollow Knight's most similar game is Silksong, and Silksong's most similar game is Hollow Knight. They share 25 mechanics. No genre tags were used. This pair is the standing sanity check for our similarity metric. steammaho.com/app/1030300 #gamedev #gamedesign

steammaho.com

Hollow Knight: Silksong — mechanics, owners & revenue estimates

Hollow Knight: Silksong: Action game, 5 mechanics (Parry, Secret Areas, Boss Encounter), an estimated 17.3M owners, 421K reviews — Steam analytics on SteamMaho.

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steammaho.com @steammaho.com · 03/09/2026

Steam's Survival Crafting Fest runs through Sunday. About 150 survival games launched on Steam every month of 2026. About half never collect 10 reviews. Of those that do, 19% reach 1,000. The median 1,000+-review survival game earned $1.7M. steammaho.com/reports/sample/rooted #gamedev #indiedev

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steammaho.com @steammaho.com · 01/09/2026

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steammaho.com @steammaho.com · 31/08/2026

The result that holds after every caveat: remove the blockbusters. Games carrying a top-10 pair and earning under $10M still show a $1.7M median. The market's is $1.0M. Full table and method: steammaho.com/news/the-mec...

steammaho.com

The mechanic combos only blockbusters ship

Confirmed wired pairs found in 15-60 games have medians up to 72M dollars, 74x the market. Half of all games earn under 1M, but Dodge+Parkour has 2 such attempts of 27 and Prone+Recoil zero of 18. The...

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steammaho.com @steammaho.com · 31/08/2026

50 of the 60 mechanic slots in the top 30 pairs are combat or movement systems. Recoil, stagger, takedowns, equipment weight. These are the most expensive systems to build: animation, physics, months of tuning. (Part of the rarity is visibility. Big games get analyzed deeper in our catalog.)

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steammaho.com @steammaho.com · 31/08/2026

Half of all games with 1,000+ reviews earn under $1M. So of 27 dodge+parkour games, about 13 should be below that line. There are 2. Prone aiming + recoil control: zero small games out of 18. When one of these pairs is in a game, that game is almost always big-budget.

Chart comparing expected vs actual sub-$1M games among six rare mechanic pairs; actual is far below expected in every row.

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steammaho.com @steammaho.com · 31/08/2026

Dodge wired to parkour appears in 27 games on Steam. Their median revenue is $72M. The market median is about $1M. We went looking for mechanic pairs that appear in only 15 to 60 games. The list is full of games like Dying Light 2, Assassin's Creed Origins, Ghost of Tsushima.

Bar chart of five rare mechanic pairs with median revenues $41M–$72M, 37–74 times the market median

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steammaho.com @steammaho.com · 24/08/2026

The pattern: mechanics that define a game's structure (open world, companions, stealth) earn more as the core. Flavor systems (cooking, trading, moral choices) earn more inside a bigger game. Full write-up + free dataset for all 108 mechanics: steammaho.com/news/most-me...

steammaho.com

Most mechanics pay better as a side system than as the main event

Across 108 common mechanics, 55 earn more when carried as a side system than when the game is built around them; only 12 reverse. Size-matching splits the effect: fishing's premium is pure composition...

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steammaho.com @steammaho.com · 24/08/2026

Most of that is a size effect: "vehicle combat on the side" means PUBG and Cyberpunk. So we matched games by size. Fishing's gap disappeared. Permadeath's survived: a game about permadeath is a niche; permadeath as an option lives in Risk of Rain 2 and Don't Starve Together.

paired bars: core vs supporting revenue at matched game size

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steammaho.com @steammaho.com · 24/08/2026

Does a game earn more when it's BUILT AROUND a mechanic, or when it just has it on the side? We checked every mechanic with 50+ Steam games in both roles (1,000+ reviews each). 55 of 108 earn more as a side system. Only 12 earn more as the game's main focus. #gamedev #indiedev

stacked bar: 55 of 108 mechanics earn more as side systems

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steammaho.com @steammaho.com · 21/08/2026

We read 85,000 Steam games the way designers do: mechanics instead of genres. Which mechanics carry a game, how they wire together, and what that means in money. Open catalog and research at steammaho.com #gamedev, #indiedev

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