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This paper argues that uninsurable tail risk in workers' earnings can help explain higher risk premia and return volatility in financial markets. Links labor-market risk sharing directly to asset pricing outcomes. spkl.io/633247VXbn #AssetPricing #LaborEconomics

Figure 2: Euler equation errors for g = gL and g= gL.

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Should all trading move to centralized markets? New research suggests that OTC markets persist because they create valuable intermediation between smaller and larger market participants. spkl.io/633297VXS1 #FinancialMarkets

Figure 2: The MPV of centralized (red dashed curve) and OTC market participation (blue plain line), as functions of capacity, k

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During the COVID-19 panic, investors often sold their safest assets first.This paper shows how liquidity-driven selling created severe debt-market dislocations and how Fed bond-purchase announcements helped restore market functioning. spkl.io/633297VXCU #FixedIncome

Figure 2: Returns during the COVID-19 crisis across asset classes.
This figure reports the cumulative log returns for the stock market (S&P500), an Investment-Grade corporate bond ETF (LQD) , a High-Yield corporate bond ETF (HYD), a long-term Treasury ETF (TLT), and a Municipal Bond ETF (MUB) through the COVID-19 crisis (February 2020 through early April).

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We may learn how to invest from the people we work with. This paper finds that workplace networks influence investment decisions, with financial behaviors spreading through coworker relationships. spkl.io/633227VkGy #PersonalFinance

Table 11. Peer Effects by CBSA Population Density

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This paper finds that climate change can have non-trivial implications for optimal #monetarypolicy by affecting productivity and the broader #macroeconomic environment. The results hold across standard #economic shocks, climate shocks, and energy-price shocks. spkl.io/633257V3fX

Figure 1a: Impulse response functions under an exogenous Taylor-type monetary policy rule
The impact of TFP and climate shocks

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Climate policy can affect borrowing spkl.io/633257V3vX research finds that banks adjusted auto-loan pricing and terms after Germany's carbon-pricing announcement, particularly for fuel-intensive vehicles. spkl.io/633277V3vZ #ClimateFinance #Banking

Figure 1: Cross-country event study estimates for the carbon price announcement on loan interest rates following equation

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This paper finds that revealing hidden fees can affect sellers as well as consumers. After #Airbnb introduced fee-inclusive price displays in the EU, some fee-free hosts raised base prices while fee-charging hosts modestly reduced cleaning fees. spkl.io/633227V3iu #Pricing

Figure 1. Airbnb search results in London as viewed by EU versus US IP addresses in February 2020.
Notes: Both panels show search results for the same central London listings and the same two-night stay, accessed using EU
and US-based IP addresses, respectively. For comparability, prices are converted to Euros; minor differences in the displayed
totals partly reflect exchange rates applied by Airbnb at the time of access

This paper combines mobile-phone data with insurgent-event records and finds that greater exposure to violence increases the odds of international migration by 6.4%.The study finds little evidence that violence increases internal migration. spkl.io/633247V3km #Migration #Conflict

Figure 2: SIGACTs in Afghan districts during the sample period
Notes: Darker shaded districts experience more violence than lighter ones. Though SIGACT data contains several event types, I define violent exposure to include only direct fire, indirect fire, successful IEDs, and surface-to-air strikes. Notably, the category only includes violence accomplished by the insurgency

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Commodity prices don't just fluctuate, they can jump. New research finds that soybean and biofuel markets exhibit significant jump risk, with important consequences for investment and environmental policy. spkl.io/633237V3rJ #EnergyTransition

Figure 1: US Ethanol production, by type: D4 vs. D6

This paper provides a practical guide to the ISDA CDS Standard Model, explaining how contract conventions, hazard-rate calibration, discounting, and cash-flow definitions combine to determine CDS prices. spkl.io/633247pAJw #CDS #CreditRisk

Figure 1: Bloomberg CDS Example, CDSW <GO>

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This paper using 1.25 billion job postings and 154 million employment records across 41 countries finds that AI adoption shifts labor demand toward senior workers while reducing the junior share of the workforce. spkl.io/633237pAMd #AI #FutureOfWork

Figure 2: AI share of job postings by industry

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Shareholder empowerment depends on who the shareholders are. This paper finds that ownership structure and access to information play a key role in determining how control is allocated between shareholders and managers. spkl.io/633217pAPz #CorporateGovernance

Figure 1: GM vs Management Control
This figure shows the average number of strategic decisions controlled by the GM, by the management (officers and board) or not allocated to either. The strategic decisions are acquisitions/sales of assets, borrowing against the firm’s assets, equity issuance, firm liquidation and dividend payments

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This paper surveys two decades of advances in antitrust economics, highlighting major developments in the study of collusion, merger enforcement, unilateral effects, and competition policy. spkl.io/633217pApU #Antitrust #CompetitionPolicy

Figure 1: Criminal cartel cases filed by US DOJ, persons incarcerated, and fines imposed

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SSRN @ssrn.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

This paper argues that government lawyers have three core moral obligations: commitment to law enforcement, legality, and the rule of law. Warns that when government lawyers abandon these responsibilities, democratic governance is placed at risk. spkl.io/633207pAZp #RuleOfLaw

The Moral Obligations of Government Lawyers by Cass R. Sunstein.

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This paper argues that breakthrough technologies like AI often create a Productivity J-Curve: firms first invest heavily in intangible assets and organizational change, causing measured productivity to lag before gains ventually emerge. spkl.io/633297p2nU #AI #Productivity

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SSRN @ssrn.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

This paper finds that markets began pricing the U.S. enrollment cliff years before it arrived. Universities exposed to declining birth cohorts lost students and revenue but often offset the impact through cost reductions and reserve building. spkl.io/633297p2xR #MunicipalBonds

Figure 2. Geographic Distribution of Treatment
(a) Local birth ratio by county
Notes: Panel (a) maps the continuous birth ratio (equation 1) by county. Warmer colors indicate sharper birth declines; cooler colors indicate growth or stability. Panel (b), on the following page, shows counties shaded by whether they contain treated or control bond-issuing universities. Treatment is concentrated in
the Rust Belt, New England, and parts of the Mountain West. Sources: SEER County Population Data (1969 to 2023); U.S. Census Bureau County Adjacency File

This paper finds that AI-powered recommendation systems can improve product matching and reduce search costs, but may also increase prices and reduce consumer surplus through changes in competitive dynamics. spkl.io/633287pFa8 #AI #Competition

FIGURE 1.—Demand curves and equilibrium prices under random search (blue) and with personalized recommendations (red) in the stylized example (Left panel) and in the full model (Right panel)

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The largest U.S. bank stocks earn lower risk-adjusted returns than smaller banks, despite being more highly leveraged.The evidence is consistent with investors pricing in greater protection for large banks during crisis scenarios. spkl.io/633237pFqx #Banking #AssetPricing

Table BI
Measuring Residual Risk Exposure.

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This UCLA JILFA article argues that while #AIpolicy debates have focused heavily on jobs, privacy/likeness, IP & sustainability, how #AI will shape the future of #internationallaw is comparatively underexplored. Read: spkl.io/633237pmrl Subscribe: spkl.io/633277pmrU

We're hiring a Content Editor, Medical Preprints at SSRN . Help manage medical submission queues, uphold research integrity and support partners like Preprints with The Lancet. Apply: spkl.io/633287pffa #Hiring #Preprints #ScholarlyPublishing

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Using Regression Discontinuity Designs (RDD) around close mayoral #elections, this paper studies whether mayors’ #gender affects local public procurement in #Italy Read: spkl.io/633217pmux Subscribe: spkl.io/633277pmuN #EconSky

This image shows a figure titled Balance of covariates.

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This Northwestern University Law Review article argues #police “discipline exceptionalism” is assessed mainly through formal processes, which creates a bias toward the formal system because it generates records & review. Read: spkl.io/633257pmP1 Subscribe: spkl.io/633227pmPM

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Contrarian #mutualfund managers significantly outperform extrapolative managers earning up to 5.52% higher annual alpha following periods of factor underperformance, suggest that demand accommodation & buying what others are selling can be a valuable source of returns spkl.io/633287paBQ

Figure 2: Density of Aggregated Implied Expectation Style

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This paper argues that status remains a source of law, shaping rights and obligations alongside contracts and state regulation. Challenges the idea that status-based legal distinctions largely disappeared in modern legal systems. spkl.io/633207pvFA #LegalTheory #Law

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This paper finds that firms are more likely to adopt new inputs that are already used by their suppliers or their suppliers' connections, highlighting the importance of production networks in driving technological diffusion. spkl.io/633267psc0 #Innovation #SupplyChains

Figure 1: Input adoption and initial network distance
Notes: The figure shows that sector pairs that are closer in the U.S. input-output network in 1967 are more likely to see direct adoption by 2002. The x-axis shows the binary distance between input i and a potential adopting sector j in 1967. Sectors that are already directly connected in 1967 (distance 1) are excluded from the analysis. The y-axis shows the share of all sector pairs for which j as adopted i by 2002. The whiskers correspond to the 95% confidence intervals.

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New research finds that industries receiving private equity investment tend to experience faster productivity and employment growth, with little evidence that they become more vulnerable to aggregate economic shocks. spkl.io/633207psdy #PrivateEquity #Finance

Table 2: Distribution of deals by industry The sample consists of 8,596 country-industry-year observations of OECD countries between 1991
and 2007. Observations is the number of observations in the industry. PE industries contains the number of observations classified as PE industries. An industry is a PE industry if it had at least one PE investment during the previous five years. Deals is the number of deals, and Deal volume is the combined size of the deals (normalized to 2008 US$ billions). Imputed deal volume imputes the size for deals with missing size information.

This paper finds that the SEC's 2003 mutual fund voting disclosure rule did not reduce mutual-fund support for management compensation proposals. If anything, mutual funds appear to have become more supportive after the rule change. spkl.io/633257psr1 #CorporateGovernance #ProxyVoting

Table 1. Types of Proposals and Voting Outcomes in Relation to the Mutual Fund Vote Disclosure Rule
The table presents voting outcomes (average percentages voting for and voting against) for our sample’s proposals by type (management or shareholder-sponsored) and within type by group, detailing the IRRC codes comprising the groups, over the full time period as well as split at the rule’s effective date, July 1, 2003 (‘votes for before’ and ‘votes for after’), and the t-statistic for the difference in mean between the percentages of votes for before and votes for after calculated pair-wise; ** means significant at less than 5 percent and * means significant at 10 percent; N/A means statistical test non-applicable.

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This paper finds that corporate acquisition activity follows a U-shaped lifecycle pattern: young & mature public firms are more acquisitive than middle-aged firms. Firms often diversify surprisingly early with 41% of first acquisitions being diversifying deals. spkl.io/633267plq4 #MandA

Figure 1. Post-IPO conditional acquisition rate per event-year by IPO-cohort
IPO and acquisition data are obtained from SDC Platinum. The IPO sample includes all initial public offerings in 1975-2002, excluding reverse LBOs, spinoffs, rights and unit offerings, ADRs, closed-end funds, and REITs. Acquisitions of the IPO firms are identified using the SDC M&A database and include all acquisition deals announced in 1981 2006. Event year refers to the year with respect to the IPO year, event year 0. The conditional acquisition rate is the ratio of acquisitions of a given type in a year divided by the number of firms alive at the beginning of that year.

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This paper finds that more than half of executives contacted by #headhunters were willing to consider outside opportunities. Executives with less certain roles and broader career experience were especially likely to engage in job search. spkl.io/633207plbp #Leadership

TABLE 2 Frequencies of responses to search request

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This paper argues that persistent negative swap spreads since the Global Financial Crisis can be partly explained by U.S. sovereign default risk, challenging the assumption that Treasuries are completely risk-free. spkl.io/633257plMt #FixedIncome #InterestRates

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This paper argues that the long-standing debate between vertical and horizontal public-defense representation presents a false choice.Instead, advocates a team-based model that combines continuity, accountability, and specialized expertise. spkl.io/633287pizg #CriminalJustice #Law

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This paper explores how much liability #AI providers should bear when their systems can be used for both beneficial and harmful purposes. Finds that optimal liability depends on competition, guardrails, defensive capabilities & the risk of excluding productive users. spkl.io/633297p9Cd

Figure 1: Best responses and the security equilibrium. Exposureis ℓ = 1. Panel (a) shows the full curves;
panels (b) and (c) enlarge the region around equilibrium. Solid curves are the baseline and dashed curves follow the
indicated change. A higher price shifts both responses inward, moving E0 = (25/4,21/4) to Ep = (4,3) while success
remains 1/2. Higher liability shifts only the defender’s response, moving equilibrium along the attacker curve to
Es = (375/64,161/64): both efforts fall, but success rises to 5/8

This paper argues that the Patent Office has significantly expanded its use of discretionary denials in inter partes review and that courts have provided insufficient oversight of those decisions. spkl.io/633277pbql #PatentLaw #AdministrativeLaw

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New research argues that recessions can become self-reinforcing because weaker economic activity increases firm uncertainty, which reduces confidence and further suppresses investment and hiring. spkl.io/633257pbdh #Macroeconomics #BusinessCycles

Figure 1: Impulse response to an aggregate TFP shock

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This paper argues that inclusion in a market benchmark creates a "benchmark inclusion subsidy" by generating additional investor demand, potentially affecting investment decisions, M&A activity, spinoffs, and IPO valuations. spkl.io/633217pXs9 #AssetManagement #Finance

Figure 1: Change in the stockholder value, ∆Si,asafunctionofcorrelationsof
project y’s cash flows with cash flows of assets inside and outside the benchmark,
⇢jy for some j  k and some j>k. Parameter values: n =5, k =3, µy =1.2, I =1, σj =0.15, σy =0.1, ⇢jy =0unless it is plotted on the horizontal axis, ⇢j` =0, ` 6 = j, j =1,...,n, γ =2, λM =0.3, a =0.008, b =0.042. Investing firm: i =1. Solid line: j =2.Dashedline: j =4.

This paper argues that when firms face financing constraints, taxing payouts (dividends and share repurchases) rather than profits can raise revenue more efficiently by placing a greater burden on unconstrained firms. spkl.io/633237pXo3 #TaxPolicy #CorporateFinance

Figure A1: Intertemporal Budget Constraint Violation vs. Tax Rate

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New research uses #LLMs to extract sentiment from #FOMC statements and finds that it helps predict future inflation and unemployment beyond professional forecasts. Markets appear to process the Fed's qualitative narrative gradually, over 10-15 trading days. spkl.io/633227puYm

Figure 1: Monetary policy sentiment
NOTE: Panel (a) of the figure depicts the time series of our monetary policy sentiment measure (solid line) along with the scaled JP Morgan
measure (dashed line). Panel (b) of the figure depicts the scatter plot of increments of the two monetary policy sentiment measures. Data
sources: Data sources: Federal Reserve Board, JP Morgan Markets

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This paper finds that the first five trading days of each month generate 83% of the U.S. corporate-bond credit premium and more than half of the returns across 103 bond factors. The reason remains an open puzzle. spkl.io/633237pu57 #CorporateBonds #FixedIncome

$Figure 3: Could luck produce the premium of the first five trading days? This figure shows how often the premium of the first five trading days could arise by luck. We shuffle the trading days within each month 5,000 times in random order (‘shuffled’), in the same way for every bond, and in each shuffle find the five days in a row that have the highest premium. The premium of five days in a row is their average daily credit return minus the average daily credit return on the remaining days of the month. For individual bonds (Panel A), we estimate it as the dummy coefficient δ of Eq. (2), with bond-month fixed effects αi,m and a dummy variable for those five days in place of the first five trading days. For the value-weighted bond market index (Panel B), we compute it in each month and average it across months. The histogram shows the premium of the best five days in each of the 5,000 shuffles, in basis points per day, and the vertical line shows the premium of the actual first five trading days. The p-value is the fraction of shuffles in which the best five days have a premium at least as large as that of the actual first five trading days, and it is the shuffled p-value in Table 1. The sample period is February 1997 to January 2023$

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Do delivery subscriptions really pay for themselves? New research finds that many subscription programs redistribute value rather than create it, with roughly half of subscriber relationships failing to generate positive lifetime savings. spkl.io/633267pube #ConsumerBehavior

Figure 1: The Consumer–Platform Value Alignment Plane

This paper outlines a roadmap for AI assurance, examining how auditors can provide credible independent assurance over AI systems whose risks evolve across models, data, processes, and deployment environments. spkl.io/633227TiQE #AI #Audit

FIGURE 2: Evolution of the Artificial Intelligence Risk Landscape Across Increasingly Capable AI Systems.

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This paper develops a global asset-demand framework linking portfolio flows, exchange rates, and asset prices. The results show that investor demand plays a major role in shaping global financial markets. spkl.io/633267TiKC #InternationalFinance #AssetPricing

Figure 4. Illustration of residual supply. This figure illustrates the residual supply of Dutch and Australian debt from the perspective of US investors. German investors have a higher demand for Dutch than Australian debt through a gravity effect that depends on the bilateraldistance between countries.

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This paper shows that when global banks face capital constraints, lower domestic interest rates can increase local lending while reducing foreign lending, creating an international transmission channel for monetary policy. spkl.io/633267Tiuy #MonetaryPolicy #Banking

Figure 1. Foreign Banks’ Reserve Holdings at The Federal Reserve. The solid line shows the deposits (in billions of USD) held by foreign banks at U.S. Federal Reserve Banks for the period from 2000:Q1 to 2016:Q4. The dashed line (secondary axis) shows the foreign holdings as a percentage of total reserves. The vertical dashed line indicates 2008:Q4, when the Federal Reserve started paying interest on reserves held against deposits.

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New research argues that Chapter 11 creates a federally governed bankruptcy estate, meaning corporate governance during bankruptcy should be viewed through federal, not state, corporate law principles. spkl.io/633207TiZi #Bankruptcy #CorporateLaw

The Federal Corporate Law of Bankruptcy by Adam J. Levitin and Stephen J. Lubben.

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This paper finds that composite ESG scores have little power to explain benchmark-relative returns or alpha in European equity funds. Governance, however, is positively associated with benchmark-relative performance and residual alpha. spkl.io/633247Ti9M #ESG #AssetManagement

Figure 1: Annualised benchmark-excess returns from March 2014 to September 2021 across sustainability deciles, with D1 representing the lowest-scoring decile and D10 the highest

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