iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Spatch1003 @spatch1003.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

Wow, absolutely brutal Q3 for a HF who is not supposed to be one of the high flying risk takers. Of course, they’re a Tiger Cub, so risk management is “we know our stocks better than anyone else out there”, which, lol. Sorry folks, it’s not ‘06 anymore. Times (and single stock vol) have changed.

Lone Pine erases 44% gain in brutal quarter in poor stock bets

010

Spatch1003 @spatch1003.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

It’s clear that the guy hasn’t learned his lesson yet. So until he has, further reinforcement is necessary.

He was beginning to believe that the Trump administration was "a joke," and that the Democrats were no better. "Everything is
broken,
" Jack said.

100

Spatch1003 @spatch1003.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

The best is the response of Vinod Khosla to the CEO of Factory after he made the allegation, calling Factory “a struggling second tier competitor.” I mean, not so bad, right? But, guess who invested more money in Factory 2 weeks ago and led their Series C 6 months ago? Khosla, of course!

Factory latest round from mid September - Khosla participated

000

Spatch1003 @spatch1003.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

LOL, the VCs on Twitter are fighting (but it’s a day that ends in “y”, so what else is new). Factory is accusing an advisor of stealing strategic plans and getting a job at competitor Cognition. Our old islamophobic friend Shaun Maguire goes nuclear…maybe literally in his own mind?

100

Spatch1003 @spatch1003.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

I’ll give a “hell yeah” to that.

010

Spatch1003 @spatch1003.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

My favorite way to annoy Confederate sympathizers: telling them that Lincoln would have almost certainly won a free election in 1860 in South Carolina where he was on the ballot and then waiting to see how long it takes them to get it.

Table with South Carolina population in 1860 showing 300k free population and 400k slave population

011

Spatch1003 @spatch1003.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

In addition to sparking laughter at finding joy in spending my “leisure time” making my own clothes and growing my own food (how medieval peasant of me), it’s also funny how the article gets demolished by the last decase of advancement in battery technology.

Article quote: renewable energy cannot sustain an energy intensive global society of high end consumers

050

Spatch1003 @spatch1003.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

I place a lot more emphasis on actions rather than words, but for the record, he’s the weight that the Dem electorate places on words. It seems like Dem voters don’t like their politicians taken potshots at transgender youths. Maybe you should focus more on votes too.

100

Spatch1003 @spatch1003.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

I’m going to have to disagree on that.

Map showing states that vote Dem protect trans rights.

100

Spatch1003 @spatch1003.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

It's also a huge finance/investing challenge too. Given the impact of rates on equity prices, the best period to study for stocks is the post Breton Woods era, which is driven by a period of rising rates then long period of falling rates. It's just 2 big trends! It's not great!

Two Sigma write up. One of the most striking features of these long histories is the “interest rates mountain” of the 1950s through to the present day (see Exhibit 2). Over the course of six decades, long-term bond yields in most developed markets climbed from the low single digits to peaks around 15%, and then back down to near zero. This ascent and decline are astonishing in their scale, a treacherous alpine ridge with sheer drops to each side of 1980. But perhaps the more important part of the chart is the broad plain of mid single digit rates we see preceding the mountain, extending back to the pre-Industrial Age origins of modern central banks and sovereign bonds in northern Europe. This presents a tricky issue for anyone seeking to forecast the Interest Rates premium: 60 years of data might sound like plenty of historical perspective for any factor, but interest rates appear to have been in “anomalous” territory for nearly that long. Trickier still, maybe the mountain isn’t the anomaly after all. The shift by most developed market central banks from the gold standard to a fiat standard in the mid-20th century (culminating with the breakup of Bretton Woods in 1971) may render any data prior to the mountain obsolete, leaving the mountain as the only data we have that describes the current fiat regime. The challenge of identifying the relevant period for estimating the Interest Rates premium puts in stark relief some of the issues faced in relying on historical data as a lens for the future, and especially highlights the potential benefit of using longer windows and applying sensible prior assumptions where possible.

000

Spatch1003 @spatch1003.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

Oh dear. Even the idiots of the All In podcast (which I sometimes need to listen to for work, ugh) seem to now understand that Trump is regularly acting in an erratic manner rather than executing on complex, 17D chess.

000

Spatch1003 @spatch1003.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

It really all comes down to this. We can talk about failures of constitutional systems (no EC = no Trump win in 2016), media (who completely failed), and party structures (GOP being too weak to just block Trump), but ultimately the people collectively failed.

LotGH: The collapse of democratic rule is the sin of every citizen.

110

Spatch1003 @spatch1003.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

Interesting data from Vercel over on Twitter. In the last 2 months, closed source models have gone from 72% of tokens to 38%. And yet, if public statements are correct, both OpenAI and Anthropic have seen accelerating revenue growth. It gives a sense how much the pie is growing for both to be true.

Area graph of token share between open and closed source models

010

Spatch1003 @spatch1003.bsky.social · 26/07/2026

My God. AI slop is literally this 1980s PSA. They tried to warn us but we just laughed!

I learned it from watching you meme. Dad is Mr Beast. Kid is AI image generators.

020

Spatch1003 @spatch1003.bsky.social · 25/07/2026

You forget that DSA thinks sanctions are bad though, so they wouldn’t want to conduct economic warfare against Israel merely for acting independently against the views of a DSA-aligned US government by continuing to commit genocide.

END BLOCKADES, EMBARGOES, AND SANCTIONS

People around the world deserve to live their lives without U.S. interference. End economic warfare against countries whose governments act independently of the United States, such as Cuba, Venezuela, and Iran.

120

Spatch1003 @spatch1003.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

This was a great piece, especially the ending here. It reminds me of a story: shortly after my wife and I moved into our new house, we were invited to a cookout by our Hindu neighbors. It was the day after our wedding, but we cooked a dish and went so that we could start to meet the neighbors.

1203

Spatch1003 @spatch1003.bsky.social · 26/06/2026

It's been a long road, getting from there to here...

042

Spatch1003 @spatch1003.bsky.social · 19/06/2026

I’m only 150 pages into it, but it’s excellent so far. The chapter that walks through the strategic, military, and economic situation of the 7 major powers in Dec 1941 is worth the price of admission on its own. I also love these charts mapping out everything that happens each month.

0162

Spatch1003 @spatch1003.bsky.social · 11/06/2026

See, we’re just stupid libs that are too skeptical. He definitely has evidence that Dems do as much fraud as the GOP, but he can only share it offline and he has to get his kids to bed first, cause he’s a good family man don’t’cha know it (unlike those black folks he helped disenfranchise).

819412

Spatch1003 @spatch1003.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

WW2: where everyone was just super racist.

000

Spatch1003 @spatch1003.bsky.social · 02/06/2026

I’ll guess I’ll just turn this into a thread of observations. I love this analogy of the KB and panzer divisions. Once I saw it, the connection was obvious but one I hadn’t made before. And, yes, I still haven’t hit 1942 in a book called 1942 even though it’s pg 125. Frankly, I love this.

Kido Butai at sea as revolutionary as panzer division on land

100

Spatch1003 @spatch1003.bsky.social · 01/06/2026

I really like these charts in the book, breaking out major events each month in the primary theaters into a timeline. It really gives a good sense of the interconnected nature of the conflict that is missed in a campaign overview.

100

Spatch1003 @spatch1003.bsky.social · 29/05/2026

Per capita real income including transfers was right at trend up until the people in their abject stupidity elected Trump!

Real per capital income with and without transfers

120

Spatch1003 @spatch1003.bsky.social · 29/05/2026

Per capita real social security payments have been increasing and have been increased at a faster rate in the last 4 years than in the 4 years preceding covid (3% annually vs 1.9% annually).

Per capita real social security payments since Jan 2010

230

Spatch1003 @spatch1003.bsky.social · 25/05/2026

Well, look what just showed up on my doorstep; I thought it was still a month or two from release. I’ve been looking forward to this for a few years now. And, judging by the 1,000 page length, this one will be occupying space on my night stand for quite a while!

010

Spatch1003 @spatch1003.bsky.social · 20/05/2026

You’re the one who picked UPenn! You chose to walk into that brick wall, buddy; nobody tricked you into doing it. But, if we look at the system as a whole, the increase in total cost of attendance above the rate of overall CPI has been covered by increased financial aid and grants, not by families.

Sources of tuition funding. Student/family cost shows negligible change in 2020 dollars since 1993.

010

Spatch1003 @spatch1003.bsky.social · 29/04/2026

These will never stop making me sad. The 2021-2022 legislative session would have been so much easier/more productive if these two elections had gone differently.

170

Spatch1003 @spatch1003.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

Meanwhile, in reality, what we see is this. So, I am justifiably angry at this shit because we’re somehow going to find Vance being the anti-war candidate of 2028.

000

Spatch1003 @spatch1003.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

You know why I can be justifiably pissed about this? Because, the 7 year old article is full of quote tweets and comments blaming all Dems for this shit, particularly when the article ends with this.

Schumer later concluded his statement with a vow that he and his fellow Democrats will continue working toward a more palatable case in favor of bombing Iran.

100

Spatch1003 @spatch1003.bsky.social · 09/04/2026

We are lucky that the cringe Democratic voters of Minneapolis were far more courageous than the hip Tik Tok watching gen Z college student protestors.

040

Spatch1003 @spatch1003.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

Bluesky talks very bearishly about the stock market because many finance guys are idiots about Trump (and I talk to a lot of HF/VC guys, many of them are indeed idiots when it comes to Trump!). But, Bluesky does fail to understand the recent, incredible operating strength of US public companies.

2020s performance of S&P 500 entirely driven by earnings growth

070

Spatch1003 @spatch1003.bsky.social · 31/03/2026

Wow, look at this horrifying post by Republicans, but I must retain my DSA cred by lying about Dems and affirming they suck.

000

Spatch1003 @spatch1003.bsky.social · 29/03/2026

“When they touch down we'll blow the roof, they'll spend a month sifting through rubble and by the time they figure out what went wrong, we'll be sitting on a beach earning 20%.” “Again, Hans, as your financial advisor, it’s unreasonable to assume a 20% return. You’re going to eat into principal.”

000

Spatch1003 @spatch1003.bsky.social · 09/03/2026

Just thinking back to news on Southwest Airlines from almost 1 year ago today.

Southwest Airlines to Discontinue Fuel Hedging Program, CEO Says

000

Spatch1003 @spatch1003.bsky.social · 03/03/2026

The Venn Diagram of people who want Congress to exert its constitutional powers and the people that hate Chuck Schumer for talking about Congress exerting its constitutional powers is a circle.

120

Spatch1003 @spatch1003.bsky.social · 03/03/2026

I prefer this crusade in response to fascist artwork.

Eisenhower's Great Crusade June 6 order of the day

010

Spatch1003 @spatch1003.bsky.social · 02/03/2026

This is the Mandela Effect that ends with Dems being smeared as pro war while the warmonger lying liar who lies can be pro peace. (1) The lone vote against the 2001 AUMF was in the House, made by Dem Barbara Lee (she correctly opposed its open ended nature rather than attacking Bin Laden).

100

Spatch1003 @spatch1003.bsky.social · 26/02/2026

Don’t worry. AI is going to fix this for us. I’m hearing good things about the latest developments there.

060

Spatch1003 @spatch1003.bsky.social · 15/02/2026

The thing about Casablanca being one of the worst TV series of the 1982-1983 season is that people won't believe they actually tried to do a prequel TV series of the daily activities of Rick Blaine featuring 1980s style haircuts.

Casablance 91st best series of 1982-1983, cancelled

082

Spatch1003 @spatch1003.bsky.social · 07/02/2026

Of course, the guy in the middle is Donald Nelson and he’s surrounded by members of the War Production Board. That meeting is why Carl’s buddies had to try to fight this.

020

Spatch1003 @spatch1003.bsky.social · 07/02/2026

An example of one of these liberal committee meetings while fascists are trying to dismantle democracy.

Black and white photo of men in suits around a table

150

Spatch1003 @spatch1003.bsky.social · 31/01/2026

This may be the worst thing I’ve seen on Reddit. Someone who blames the US for not negotiating a surrender of Japan in March 1945, two months before serious discussions about potentially considering surrender began in Japan.

010

Spatch1003 @spatch1003.bsky.social · 27/01/2026

I don't know why isekai replaced ISOT (are they the same thing or is there a difference between them?) and at this point, I'm too afraid to ask.

Andy Dwyer too afraid to ask meme picture

000

Spatch1003 @spatch1003.bsky.social · 25/01/2026

While Bill Ackman is more prolific in demonstrating the stupidity of fintwit billionaires, we shouldn’t ignore that Dan Loeb has also melted his brain on Twitter.

Dan Loeb agreeing with statement that Dems should have protested Laken Riley’s murder

000

Spatch1003 @spatch1003.bsky.social · 22/01/2026

Stories of what men in Japan would do to try to avoid conscription and being forced to fight in China (before 1941!). We should have allowed more people the freedom to immigrate to the US before the war; many likely would have wanted to fight for us rather than being forced to fight against us.

000

Spatch1003 @spatch1003.bsky.social · 14/01/2026

Man, ICE and CBP have ruined DHS’ reputation so much that even TSA doesn’t want people to know they’re affiliated with them.

Reddit. “When someone asks me where I work is saying I work for DHS still a viable response if I don’t want people to hate me.”

010