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Boris Sobolev @sobor.bsky.social · 24/01/2025

According to Fisher, it’s about ‘testing observed differences between average outcomes of groups treated differently’

Boris Sobolev @sobor.bsky.social · 23/01/2025

Well, math makes no sense to those who don’t know it, right? For the rest of us, a random function would suffice… no counterfactuals, no strawman, no crows, no windmills… 👇🏻

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Boris Sobolev @sobor.bsky.social · 23/01/2025

ah, you transitioned from math notation to pics 😊… ok, let’s do a pictorial argument

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Boris Sobolev @sobor.bsky.social · 24/12/2024

sometimes, a flower is just a flower

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Boris Sobolev @sobor.bsky.social · 23/12/2024

Un laberinto de tentaciones

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Boris Sobolev @sobor.bsky.social · 21/12/2024

If you've never tasted the dishes prepared by la chefa Anayeli Suazo of Tentaciones, you don't know what a gourmet meal is and what it looks like.

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Boris Sobolev @sobor.bsky.social · 20/12/2024

Nothing can beat sleeping until noon on vacation

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Boris Sobolev @sobor.bsky.social · 23/11/2024

Wondering about #causal mediation analysis in comparative effectiveness research? Check out our framework for the mediating effect of treatment time of 2 treatment methods for complex coronary artery disease. doi.org/10.9778/cmaj...

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Boris Sobolev @sobor.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

You mean, this Fisher? 👇🏻 A denier of causal relationship btw tobacco smoking and lung cancer? yet ‘seeing’ causality btw race and the quality of ‘human stock’? Btw ‘high intellectual calibre’ of parents and their offsprings? Inverse link btw ‘fertility’ and ‘achievement’ of most valuable classes?

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Boris Sobolev @sobor.bsky.social · 19/11/2024

That’s not what Fisher has envisioned: he argued that randomization allows to test for difference in means between the groups. 👇🏻 That’s all there’s to it. Taking it as a causal effect comes from reasoning.

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Boris Sobolev @sobor.bsky.social · 19/11/2024

There’s this misconception that causal evidence comes from data. It comes from reasoning. Unless, of course, the High Priests of EBM Pyramid deny us mere mortals the ability to think.

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Boris Sobolev @sobor.bsky.social · 19/11/2024

I’ve always been puzzled by my aversion to interpreting RCT outputs as evidence. Finally, I figured it out. An RCT’s output, vaunted as assumption-free, are in fact not falsifiable. There is nothing to falsify. That what makes EBM Priests so pompous: they present infallible evidence.😂

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Boris Sobolev @sobor.bsky.social · 19/11/2024

The evangelists of EBM gospel fail to realize that the ATE in randomized trials not only involves counterfactuals, but actually answers a counterfactual question.👇🏻

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Boris Sobolev @sobor.bsky.social · 18/11/2024

There’s this misconception that probability of diverging outcomes of alternative treatments is just a theoretical consideration Here’s the probability of benefit (survival if treated early, mortality if not) estimated empirically. Each bar shows the range of its possible values.

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Boris Sobolev @sobor.bsky.social · 18/11/2024

The types of questions we ask determine the types of answers we get. 👇🏻

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Boris Sobolev @sobor.bsky.social · 18/11/2024

Please don't miss @eliasbareinboim chapter on @yudapearl causal hierarchy. I highly recommend it for the authors’ effort to give consistent notation, thoughtful examples, crisp statements. Such a powerful reading material that we can use in educational efforts.

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Boris Sobolev @sobor.bsky.social · 18/11/2024

What if treatment were different? tiny.cc/soborisC10V1

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Boris Sobolev @sobor.bsky.social · 08/11/2024

My browsing of UBC bookstore got me this! @alxndrmlk.bsky.social

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