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Slapdash

@slapdash.bsky.social
402 followers 136 following 185 posts
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Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
A minor scandal on the Kalshi discord that they settled their “unsupervised full self driving release” contract almost immediately after Elon Musk’s victory tweet today, despite clear violation of their own settlement rules. Typically @kalshiofficial.bsky.social waits at least a few hours or days.
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Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 16/01/2026
The loss of EV tax subsidies in China will weigh on GF3’s domestic sales in 2026. There was likely demand pull forward in Q4, so Q1 could be pretty dismal.
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Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 30/12/2025
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Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 15/11/2025
California DMV has narrowed its request to an in-state production halt of at least 30 days, asking for a follow up hearing to determine financial restitution for false advertising. In the meantime, the OAH judge's decision is due November 26th. $TSLA
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Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 20/08/2025
Curious for @montanaskeptic.bsky.social's take on the timing here. Schreiber says his next case (Maldonado v Tesla) is in 75 days. Is that the start of the actual jury trial? Or just initial hearings? Maybe @andyjayhawk.bsky.social can weigh in?
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Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 14/07/2025
Also meanwhile, screwworm is marching north
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Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 11/07/2025
The hearing is scheduled for 7/21-25, and the presiding judge tends to deliver decisions quickly. However, Tesla has asked for final post-hearing argument briefs to be due as late as mid-October, which I expect they'll get. Still, probably a decision before year-end.
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Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 11/07/2025
Hard to believe that the CA DMV false advertising lawsuit against Tesla is actually getting its hearing with the OAH in just over 1 week. As a reminder, the remedies that DMV is seeking here are 1) suspension of Tesla's dealer license, and 2) restitution for harmed persons.
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Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 11/07/2025
Pretty darn close to free $ available on quite a few Tesla related betting markets. Liquidity isn't great, but you can deploy a decent amount of lunch money across a few of these. Also nice to get paid for making bets on Tesla failures, which is decidedly less rewarding in the stock market.
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Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 19/05/2025
Amusing hang up for Tesla counsel in the CA DMV lawsuit. cc @montanaskeptic.bsky.social
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Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 08/05/2025
Port of LA inbound volumes. 60% of these ships are coming from China. Seems like a narrative violation. Did Trump tell the big box retailers that the tariffs would be taken down by mid-May when he met with them two weeks ago?
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Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 07/04/2025
👀
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Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
Re: margin debt, Musk apparently had *none* as of Q1 last year, when Tesla filed its annual report. Screencap below. Despite all the pledged shares. He sold a lot of stock in 2022 - more than needed for Twitter and taxes. Linked here: www.sec.gov/Archives/edg... cc: @montanaskeptic.bsky.social
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Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
American farmers having fun
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Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 28/02/2025
Coffee: OI has collapsed in the prompt months, and some differentials have gone negative. Typically see both after a bull market has culminated. On the other hand, soil moisture is very low and forecast to decline further. There will be impairment to the 2026/27 crop if this persist.
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Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 09/02/2025
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Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 07/02/2025
Illy coping hard www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 31/01/2025
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Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 28/01/2025
$SBUX made the interesting decision in Q4 to *further reduce* green coffee inventory, futures hedges, and fixed price purchase agreements.
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Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 27/12/2024
Notwithstanding the initiation of investigations, the Biden Administration protected Musk and his companies from facing legal liability. Pete Buttigieg personally intervened to rubber stamp a SpaceX launch license at Boca Chica as recently as October, despite ongoing Clean Water Act violations.
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Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 16/12/2024
A new high water mark for Tesla L2 ADAS accidents reported to NHTSA in October.
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Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 04/12/2024
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Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 28/11/2024
Two margin increases in one week and price is just 3% off the ATH set in the 1970s. Rumors of financially distressed exporters, as would be expected. And here's $SBUX appx forward hedge position as of end September. Largest buyer in the world, using>800mln lbs per year. Yikes!
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Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Bullwhip effect coming in state budgets as the last of Elementary and Secondary School Relief funds spent
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Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
Daily Linkup 10k and Indeed new job postings have been plunging over the past 6 weeks
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Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 18/11/2024
Another fatality was included in this month's standing order data for Tesla. It was probably this accident: www.nj.com/mercer/2024/... The Tesla was going 76mph in a 35mph zone.
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Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 18/11/2024
Tesla L2 ADAS accidents reported to NHTSA
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Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 13/11/2024
Hearing set with CA OAH for next July in the DMV false advertising lawsuit against Tesla (FSD & Autopilot). This hearing had been set for September of this year, but was postponed to 2025 (I suspect by Newsom's office to avoid headline risk into potential presidential campaign).
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Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 13/11/2024
Arabica coffee situation: - Multiple years of crop impairment (22/23, 25/26) due to combination of heat and low precipitation - Recent Brazil productivity gains were driven by planting density, which exacerbates "thirsty tree" problem - Precipitation patterns may have permanently changed in Brazil
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Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 19/05/2024
Fair enough. Would firms like Blackrock expose themselves to any liability for voting “yes” on such an obviously flawed proxy, against the guidance of their proxy advisors? When I look at Blackrock’s stated proxy voting principles, it emphasizes things like board independence, oversight, etc.
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Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 13/04/2024
2) NHTSA took action against Ford for the Pinto largely for *political reasons*, in the absence of adverse data.
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Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 26/03/2024
At least the post-recall accident rate reported to NHTSA seems to be down a bit, although January did include a fatality.
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Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 30/01/2024
Don’t sleep on the CA DMV false advertising case against Tesla. A hearing with the OAH has been scheduled for Sep, and a Deputy AG from the CA DOJ has taken over as the lead attorney.
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Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 06/01/2024
Don’t sleep on CA DMV. A Deputy AG from the state DOJ recently took over as lead attorney for their false advertising complaint against Tesla. Hearing is scheduled with the OAH in September. Significant potential liability.
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Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 21/11/2023
Going after Buttigieg now. I wonder why he would do that.
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Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 31/07/2023
CARB out with absolutely massive downward supply adjustments for the 2025-2030 period. I'm guessing there are only a handful (couple dozen?) speculators who even tuned into the CARB public workshop last week and know what this means. Physical up to ~$36.50 today. $KCCA
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Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 14/07/2023
China floor space starts on the left; currently running at 2009 levels. Completions on the right. Still tracking around the 5 year average. A yawning gap for commodity demand in the year ahead.
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Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 23/05/2023
Ouching like when a bag of money falls on your head? www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-short…
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Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 09/05/2023
I think so? But then here's a finding from a bundesbank financial stability review in 2016. Credit cooperatives and savings banks had exposure.
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Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 08/05/2023
I'd watch an HBO series that investigates what really happened here.
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Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 08/05/2023
I had to look it up just to make sure I hadn't misremembered... RIP Balto, "killed by cougar."
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