Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 19/08/2026Noticing a lot of Elon Musk critics here falling over themselves to defend a certain academic fraudster. 000
Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 22/01/2026A minor scandal on the Kalshi discord that they settled their “unsupervised full self driving release” contract almost immediately after Elon Musk’s victory tweet today, despite clear violation of their own settlement rules. Typically @kalshiofficial.bsky.social waits at least a few hours or days. 0182
Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 16/01/2026The loss of EV tax subsidies in China will weigh on GF3’s domestic sales in 2026. There was likely demand pull forward in Q4, so Q1 could be pretty dismal. 030
Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 18/12/2025Interestingly, the lawyers for the DMV didn't rely at all on CA SB 1398, which was the law passed in 2022 to address misleading autonomy claims. This just underscores the fact that the CA DMV could have addressed this issue under existing statute at any time over the past decade. 010
Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 15/11/2025California DMV has narrowed its request to an in-state production halt of at least 30 days, asking for a follow up hearing to determine financial restitution for false advertising. In the meantime, the OAH judge's decision is due November 26th. $TSLA 110
Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 13/11/2025$MSTR “mnav” below 1.2. At this rate may be below 1 by end of month, just in time to need cash for pref payments. Run rate on prefs + convert coupons is ~$700m annually now. 010
Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 24/08/2025JB Pritzker Polymarket odds for 2028 Dem nominee are very cheap at 2% if this happens. 010
Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 08/08/2025Ethanol is a great anti-knocking agent, replacing (very toxic) tetraethyllead. 100% gasoline blend isn’t an option. It’s also cheap, efficient, and can be integrated with carbon capture & storage. Using half of our soybean crop for fuel (biodiesel + renewable diesel) however, is the real scandal. 130
Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 05/08/2025Biggest question in my mind is if these shares will ever vest. Is the stock price going to be above $23 in 2027? The company could easily be kicked out of the s&p 500 by then after accumulating >1 year of - p&l 010
Reposted by Slapdashe.w. niedermeyer @niedermeyer.online · 22/07/2025Good morning from Oakland and the Office of Administrative Hearings, where we are resuming the hearing in the matter of the California DMV's complaint against Tesla for misleading advertising of its Autopilot and "Full Self-Driving Capability." First up we will hear from witness Bryant Walker Smith. 121216264
Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 11/07/2025Hard to believe that the CA DMV false advertising lawsuit against Tesla is actually getting its hearing with the OAH in just over 1 week. As a reminder, the remedies that DMV is seeking here are 1) suspension of Tesla's dealer license, and 2) restitution for harmed persons. 100
Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 11/07/2025Pretty darn close to free $ available on quite a few Tesla related betting markets. Liquidity isn't great, but you can deploy a decent amount of lunch money across a few of these. Also nice to get paid for making bets on Tesla failures, which is decidedly less rewarding in the stock market. 000
Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 19/05/2025Amusing hang up for Tesla counsel in the CA DMV lawsuit. cc @montanaskeptic.bsky.social 010
Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 08/05/2025Port of LA inbound volumes. 60% of these ships are coming from China. Seems like a narrative violation. Did Trump tell the big box retailers that the tariffs would be taken down by mid-May when he met with them two weeks ago? 000
Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 23/04/2025The very high probability that SCOTUS rejects Trump’s authority to implement tariffs under IEEPA this summer feels under covered. 110
Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 07/04/2025Observations from the last two weeks: - Israel now has 2 of our 7 THAAD batteries - Half of our mission ready B2 bombers have been moved to Diego Garcia - A second carrier strike group was deployed to the Middle East - A fleet of F35s sent to Jordan - An unplanned meeting with Netanyahu today 111
Reposted by SlapdashDavid_j_roth @davidjroth.bsky.social · 31/03/2025One of the defining feelings in American life, for decades now, is elites doing plainly criminal shit and nothing at all happening as a result. It is deranging in a way that virtually nothing else is. Media fixates on perceived street lawlessness but shit like this matters much more in my opinion. 280152134394
Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 20/03/2025If blue state governors want to be taken seriously as "rule of law" alternatives to Trump's GOP, enforcing basic false advertising laws against Musk's companies would be a great place to start. Tesla has been selling an L2 ADAS as "Full Self Driving" in Illinois for ~10 years. Hope that helps. 000
Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 10/03/2025Re: margin debt, Musk apparently had *none* as of Q1 last year, when Tesla filed its annual report. Screencap below. Despite all the pledged shares. He sold a lot of stock in 2022 - more than needed for Twitter and taxes. Linked here: www.sec.gov/Archives/edg... cc: @montanaskeptic.bsky.social 042
Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 07/03/2025If you hate this, just wait until aluminum oxide buildup in the ionosphere from expired Starlink satellites begins disturbing the magnetosphere. Exploded rockets are bad, but a weakened magnesosphere and resulting loss of atmosphere endangers all life on earth. 000
Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 05/03/2025Did Trump just kill the export market for US defense contractors? Why buy US equipment if Trump might simply disable it if he prefers for you to surrender? 061
Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 28/02/2025Coffee: OI has collapsed in the prompt months, and some differentials have gone negative. Typically see both after a bull market has culminated. On the other hand, soil moisture is very low and forecast to decline further. There will be impairment to the 2026/27 crop if this persist. 000
Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 28/02/2025Quite the pivot for Newsom since the CA wildfires. From organizing special #ResistTrump legislative sessions in November to deferential public statements about Trump, and now hosting MAGA folks on presumably friendly terms for a podcast. www.politico.com/news/2025/02...politico.comGavin Newsom is launching his own podcast — and inviting MAGA favoritesNewsom declined to name the half-dozen guests he said have privately agreed to come on with him. But he gave a big hint: ”Look at the lineup at CPAC.” 110
Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 16/02/2025California is also about to lose its EPA waiver to administer Advanced Clean Cars II, which underpins the state’s ZEV mandate. CA state-level EV credits have been estimated to be worth $1,500-2,000 per vehicle. www.epa.gov/newsreleases...epa.govTrump EPA to Transmit California Waivers to Congress in Accordance with Statutory Reporting Requirements | US EPAEPA News Release: Trump EPA to Transmit California Waivers to Congress in Accordance with Statutory Reporting Requirements 241
Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 28/01/2025$SBUX made the interesting decision in Q4 to *further reduce* green coffee inventory, futures hedges, and fixed price purchase agreements. 110
Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 07/01/2025NHTSA's target duration for recall queries is 120 days. It has been 257 days since the agency opened its autopilot recall query. I think the odds are reasonably high that it has already shared its findings with Tesla. 000
Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 05/01/2025Won’t be surprised if @fetterman.senate.gov loses his seat over this in 2026. 010
Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 02/01/2025I think this is far more plausible than the theory that Musk pivoted right to avoid legal liability. At least the SEC attempted to enforce Musk’s consent decree under the last Trump administration. He has enjoyed operating above the law for the last four years. 030
Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 16/12/2024It's clear that the preferred outcome for Biden and Katherine Tai here is a domestic unionized monopoly in certain steel products, whether through acquisition by Cliffs or outright $X blast furnace plant shutdowns. US manufacturers (esp the auto industry) are going to love that! 010
Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 16/12/2024A new high water mark for Tesla L2 ADAS accidents reported to NHTSA in October. 010
Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 10/12/2024US Steel should just file WARN notices for the PA blast furnace plants already. An unfortunate final example of FAFO for the administration. 000
Reposted by SlapdashTuffy @smtuffy.bsky.social · 09/12/2024Men will literally shoot people in the street rather than get physical therapy. 481
Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 27/11/2024It'll be interesting to see what resolution NHTSA staff decide to push for in the final weeks of the Biden admin wrt the current recall query. It seems safe to assume that Tesla will not issue any voluntary recalls before 1/20, so it's public hearing or court request if they want to take action. 130
Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 25/11/2024Newsom protected Tesla from facing autopilot / FSD liability in CA for years. It's clear that he now feels that he has sufficient political will to go after the company as part of his #resistance campaign. The DMV false advertising lawsuit has a hearing scheduled with CA OAH in Q3 '25. 1163
Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 25/11/2024Bullwhip effect coming in state budgets as the last of Elementary and Secondary School Relief funds spent 100
Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 19/11/2024Daily Linkup 10k and Indeed new job postings have been plunging over the past 6 weeks 000
Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 18/11/2024Looking at a recent cut of order rate estimates for Tesla this quarter: 1) USA overall tracking weaker than Q3 2) Surprising nobody, Cybertruck new orders are still tracking towards zero, despite the ~$20k price cut last month. 020
Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 18/11/2024Another fatality was included in this month's standing order data for Tesla. It was probably this accident: www.nj.com/mercer/2024/... The Tesla was going 76mph in a 35mph zone. 051
Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 18/11/2024Nippon / US Steel $X acquisition - Biden vowed to block, but only tool is CFIUS (antitrust risk easily mitigated thru sale of AM/NS Calvert) - CFIUS (12 person cabinet panel) requires unanimity to block - CFIUS last action was re-filing request, extending review deadline past election to Dec 22 100
Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 14/11/2024Tesla's loss of the EV tax credit will be partially offset by higher realized prices of CA ZEV credits. That is, unless Congress and the Trump administration also target California's EPA waiver for Advanced Clean Fleets, which underpins its EV mandate. 021
Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 13/11/2024Hearing set with CA OAH for next July in the DMV false advertising lawsuit against Tesla (FSD & Autopilot). This hearing had been set for September of this year, but was postponed to 2025 (I suspect by Newsom's office to avoid headline risk into potential presidential campaign). 010
Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 13/11/2024Arabica coffee situation: - Multiple years of crop impairment (22/23, 25/26) due to combination of heat and low precipitation - Recent Brazil productivity gains were driven by planting density, which exacerbates "thirsty tree" problem - Precipitation patterns may have permanently changed in Brazil 210
Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 18/10/2024NHTSA has been made aware of innumerable examples of FSD veering into oncoming traffic, running stops, hitting simulated pedestrians, and other critical defects by Dan O'Dowd and others over the past several years. It only decided to open up a preliminary evaluation *after* a confirmed fatality. 141
Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 09/09/2024What are we to make of the fact that Musk is doing this right under the nose of SEC and DOJ investigations into embezzlement and self dealing? WSJ reported these investigations last year, *months before* the diverted NVIDIA chips, talent poaching, and now FSD IP transfer discussion. 120
Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 14/07/2023China floor space starts on the left; currently running at 2009 levels. Completions on the right. Still tracking around the 5 year average. A yawning gap for commodity demand in the year ahead. 000
Slapdash @slapdash.bsky.social · 06/07/2023California carbon allowances - Current price $32 - CARB cutting supply caps from 40% reduction target to 48% by 2030 - CARB also raising APCR and price ceiling levels materially - Additional credit bank adjustments possible (likely)? 101
