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Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 10/07/2026

June Eskom data was hoping to have migrated fully to the beta but still some lingering things to clean up Overall things still look kinda-ok but super low demand persisting throughout winter makes it easier for eskom Koeberg still wobbling. beta.unofficialeskom.com/updates/esko...

beta.unofficialeskom.com

Eskom Data: June 2026 | Unofficial Eskom

June 2026 Eskom data: EAF recovers to 66.8% for a third month, Koeberg stuck at 645 MW, the lowest June demand on record, and diesel turbines fired hard for the 6pm winter peak.

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Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 04/06/2026

TL;DR * EAF recovered a bit, but still below 70% * Planned and unplanned down, looking better but not amazing * Koeberg is still limping for no explained reason * Exports still very down * Record low demand, as usual Also Claude officially replaced me and wrote the update, I just had to verify.

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Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 04/06/2026

I've nearly fully migrated unofficialeskom.com from some janky python scripts I wrote years ago + metabase to real data pipelines with Bruin and Echarts. Still some polish to do but good enough to move over for the monthly update! beta.unofficialeskom.com/updates/esko...

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Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 05/05/2026

this one _does_ support Eskom's claims that things are still good! Apparently there are >8GW sitting around that we are choosing to not spin up, presumably because it can't come up/down as fast as the OCGTs and therefore isn't directly useful right now, but could make up for extended koeberg outage?

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Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 05/05/2026

Last update: GPT 5.5 xhigh figured out a metric it calls 'headroom', which is different from the 'dispatchable generation' that Eskom publishes directly. Basically installed capacity minus outages gives you idle capacity that can in theory be used and that is still looking pretty good. New graph!

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Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 05/05/2026

This data and more on my site unofficialeskom.com - questions, corrections, etc all welcome

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Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 05/05/2026

Here's Sonnet 4.6 also focusing on Nuclear wobbles and the demand collapse

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Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 05/05/2026

Hopefully just a temporary set back before we get on the improvement train again, but with diesel in short supply it's not a great time to be dependent on OCGTs. Sad that Eskom isn't being transparent about Koeberg status and is instead actively pushing out statements about how good things are.

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Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 05/05/2026

For now we're still very much relying on historically low demand (almost exactly the same as April 2020 when everything shut down for Covid)

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Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 05/05/2026

Eskom is also starting to use the interruptible load shed lever again to reduce demand when needed. This is still small compared to even January, but we do not have 'surplus' as Eskom is claiming to the media

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Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 05/05/2026

I don't know what our agreement is with our neighbours but I think they're suffering as a result of all of this before we do. Exports dropped to lowest level I have on record, and below imports for the first time since May 2024.

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Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 05/05/2026

One unit of Koeberg shut down, about a week before it was planned to go off for maintenance. Second unit is currently operating at 600MW instead of 900MW. Eskom has said nothing about either. OCGTs are being used to generate up to 2.6 GW again. Average is still ok but things are clearly breaking.

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Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 05/05/2026

ESKOM DATA - APRIL 2026 There have been many media statements (end of financial year) about how well things are going. In reality, things have not been going this badly in a while. - Worst EAF since May '25 - Highest unplanned outages since July '25 - Highest total outages since June '25

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Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

But for people who prefer the human touch, graphs, data and more at unofficialeskom.com - feel free to contact me with any questions or requests

unofficialeskom.com

Unofficial Eskom

Stats and information about Eskom, South Africa's electricity provider. Not endorsed or official.

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Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

You don't actually need me anymore because Claude is great at this stuff, here's its analysis about Eskom's recent statement that everything is rosy www.eskom.co.za/eskom-mainta...

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Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

small increase in ILS but still at historical low levels which is probably good for someone's business somewhere

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Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

also a sudden drop in exports but not sure if that's primarily driven by a lack of capacity on our side or a lack of demand from neighbours?

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Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

big increase in 'max' usage of emergency diesel generators but average is still low so we must have had a some short-lived crises this month that weren't publicized Or maybe this is still part of the weird phenomenon where Eskom 'has to' burn diesel as it was pre-contracted.

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Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

Thermal is still pretty low, we'll have to see if they ramp it up as it gets colder, or if this is a new average

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Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

A little late this month as I was offline-ish for Easter weekend. Things are looking quite a bit worse than last month overall. - EAF at 66, worst since October - Increase is mainly in planned outages rather than unplanned, but still missing EAF target of 70%

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Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 02/03/2026

Otherwise not the most interesting month. Demand and generation continue with the pattern of a big year-on-year reduction. Still to be seen how much autumn/winter changes that. See this data and more on my site unofficialeskom.com and feel free to shout with any questions or requests.

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Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 02/03/2026

I always get them mixed up so here's what they mean(?) ChatGPT battles with the distinction too but I think broadly ILS is for big customers (smelters?) who Eskom can call and ask them to reduce and IOS is more broad and includes transmission faults etc too.

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Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 02/03/2026

More interesting, IOS and ILS are both at nearly zero for the first time since like 2018?

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Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 02/03/2026

More use of the emergency generators too but it seems this was because Eskom is under 'use it or lose it' contracts so they choose to burn private diesel at higher cost rather than cheaper coal as they would have to pay for the diesel whether or not they used it. Weird world.

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Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 02/03/2026

Eskom Data - February 2026 Small reversal in the headline metrics - unplanned losses up a bit, EAF down a bit to below 70% again, but nothing too concerning here

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Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 04/02/2026

Otherwise not much to say. Things look OK for now. Yay for getting back into the green zone on my dial for the first time since I added it. This data and more at my site unofficialeskom.com - feel free to tag me with any questions.

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Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 04/02/2026

also nice to see Koeberg performing at near full capacity for the last 3 months. A small dip in jan from a brief outage but seems to have been quickly resolved. Hopefully they figure out the long-term plan for the waste in one of the coming decades..

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Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 04/02/2026

demand and generation still at very record lows though, so we're still playing on easy mode in terms of high availability factor and low backup generator use. I'm interested to see what happens in July when the private solar drops off.

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Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 04/02/2026

Lowest use of emergency diesel on record? I have one lower value in Nov 2020 but I think that's a data glitch. Last month we never generated more than 411MW with the OCGTs.

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Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 04/02/2026

Eskom data - January 2026 We skipped December as Eskom stopped publishing data in November and didn't fix it for several weeks. Starting with a highlight: best EAF in January since June 2020!

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Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 03/12/2025

still playing on easy mode because there's no demand, so let's see how that changes when the sun goes away and private solar turns off.

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Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 03/12/2025

wait there are three > ILS – Interruptible Load Shed. This is consumer load(s) that can be contractually interrupted without notice or reduced by remote control or on instruction from Eskom National Control. Individual contracts place limitations on usage.

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Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 03/12/2025

so super clear? Anyway, nice that they're low.

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Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 03/12/2025

> IOS – Interruption of Supply: all contracted as well as mandatory demand reduction resources utilised by Eskom National Control. Includes IOS due to Transmission network faults. > MLR – Manual Load Reduction. An estimation of demand that has been reduced due to load shedding and/or curtailment.

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Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 03/12/2025

Interruption of Supply and Manual Load Reduction looking good. I always forget exactly what these are an how they relate with each other

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Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 03/12/2025

Thermal is dropping, but that's a usual trend for this time of year. Hopefully it starts increasing from Jan->July again if we can keep squeezing the coal plants. Koeberg second unit is back, so we have 900MW of extra baseload to play with which is nice (and maybe related to not needing the OCGTs?)

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Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 03/12/2025

New installed renewable record of 7.5GW - looks like all those announced installations are slowly coming online. I'm not sure exactly when they count as 'installed' from.

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Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 03/12/2025

Eskom data - November 2025 End of Diesel? According to the data, we never generated more than 350MW with the OCGT backup generators, which is the lowest I have on record except for nov 2020 which might also be a glitch.

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Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 04/11/2025

I learned that we store all high-level waste on the Koeberg site itself, and that it's full, so we're buying expensive 'dry storage casks' from the US in order to store more, also on-site, but those are also full now? www.businessday.co.za/bd/national/... Maybe we'll build something by 2030

businessday.co.za

Radioactive waste storage at Koeberg very close to full

Storage of such waste is a major environmental concern in the region, as SA looks to extend Koeberg’s life for another two decades

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Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 04/11/2025

not visible in the monthly graphs yet, but the other Koeberg unit is busy powering up again. AFAIK this is the end of the cycling/swopping of the two units for refurbishment and refuelling, so we should have both running simultaneously for the first time in years.

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Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 04/11/2025

The big drop in supply and demand from last month was not a one-off.

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Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 04/11/2025

Using those diesel generators a bit more again as a result

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Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 04/11/2025

Eskom data - October 2025 Not anything too interesting this month - EAF down again due to an increase in unplanned outages, but still 'ok' overall.

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Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 03/10/2025

I'm not sure I totally understand each of these, but maybe it's because iOS includes transmission network faults. The transmission network seems to be the bottleneck now instead of generation which everyone has been focusing on, as many people predicted?

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Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 03/10/2025

but ILS (interruptible load shed) went down 🤔

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Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 03/10/2025

also weird, IOS (interruption of supply, a mechanism that lets Eskom cut off business users) went up a bit compared to last month.

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