Sign in

Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦

@sixhobbits.bsky.social
53 followers 44 following 160 posts

Bootstrapping Ritza.co - a technical writing agency. Follow me for slightly cynical takes on tech and marketing. I mainly use BlueSky to post about Eskom data and loadshedding. See Twitter.com/sixhobbits for startup/tech stuff.

PostsRepliesMedia
Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
Last update: GPT 5.5 xhigh figured out a metric it calls 'headroom', which is different from the 'dispatchable generation' that Eskom publishes directly. Basically installed capacity minus outages gives you idle capacity that can in theory be used and that is still looking pretty good. New graph!
100
Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
Here's Sonnet 4.6 also focusing on Nuclear wobbles and the demand collapse
100
Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
For now we're still very much relying on historically low demand (almost exactly the same as April 2020 when everything shut down for Covid)
100
Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
Eskom is also starting to use the interruptible load shed lever again to reduce demand when needed. This is still small compared to even January, but we do not have 'surplus' as Eskom is claiming to the media
100
Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
I don't know what our agreement is with our neighbours but I think they're suffering as a result of all of this before we do. Exports dropped to lowest level I have on record, and below imports for the first time since May 2024.
100
Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
One unit of Koeberg shut down, about a week before it was planned to go off for maintenance. Second unit is currently operating at 600MW instead of 900MW. Eskom has said nothing about either. OCGTs are being used to generate up to 2.6 GW again. Average is still ok but things are clearly breaking.
100
Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
ESKOM DATA - APRIL 2026 There have been many media statements (end of financial year) about how well things are going. In reality, things have not been going this badly in a while. - Worst EAF since May '25 - Highest unplanned outages since July '25 - Highest total outages since June '25
121
Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
You don't actually need me anymore because Claude is great at this stuff, here's its analysis about Eskom's recent statement that everything is rosy www.eskom.co.za/eskom-mainta...
110
Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
small increase in ILS but still at historical low levels which is probably good for someone's business somewhere
110
Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
also a sudden drop in exports but not sure if that's primarily driven by a lack of capacity on our side or a lack of demand from neighbours?
100
Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
big increase in 'max' usage of emergency diesel generators but average is still low so we must have had a some short-lived crises this month that weren't publicized Or maybe this is still part of the weird phenomenon where Eskom 'has to' burn diesel as it was pre-contracted.
100
Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
Thermal is still pretty low, we'll have to see if they ramp it up as it gets colder, or if this is a new average
100
Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
A little late this month as I was offline-ish for Easter weekend. Things are looking quite a bit worse than last month overall. - EAF at 66, worst since October - Increase is mainly in planned outages rather than unplanned, but still missing EAF target of 70%
120
Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
Otherwise not the most interesting month. Demand and generation continue with the pattern of a big year-on-year reduction. Still to be seen how much autumn/winter changes that. See this data and more on my site unofficialeskom.com and feel free to shout with any questions or requests.
000
Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
I always get them mixed up so here's what they mean(?) ChatGPT battles with the distinction too but I think broadly ILS is for big customers (smelters?) who Eskom can call and ask them to reduce and IOS is more broad and includes transmission faults etc too.
100
Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
More interesting, IOS and ILS are both at nearly zero for the first time since like 2018?
100
Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
More use of the emergency generators too but it seems this was because Eskom is under 'use it or lose it' contracts so they choose to burn private diesel at higher cost rather than cheaper coal as they would have to pay for the diesel whether or not they used it. Weird world.
100
Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
Eskom Data - February 2026 Small reversal in the headline metrics - unplanned losses up a bit, EAF down a bit to below 70% again, but nothing too concerning here
100
Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
Otherwise not much to say. Things look OK for now. Yay for getting back into the green zone on my dial for the first time since I added it. This data and more at my site unofficialeskom.com - feel free to tag me with any questions.
000
Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
also nice to see Koeberg performing at near full capacity for the last 3 months. A small dip in jan from a brief outage but seems to have been quickly resolved. Hopefully they figure out the long-term plan for the waste in one of the coming decades..
100
Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
demand and generation still at very record lows though, so we're still playing on easy mode in terms of high availability factor and low backup generator use. I'm interested to see what happens in July when the private solar drops off.
100
Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
Lowest use of emergency diesel on record? I have one lower value in Nov 2020 but I think that's a data glitch. Last month we never generated more than 411MW with the OCGTs.
100
Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
Eskom data - January 2026 We skipped December as Eskom stopped publishing data in November and didn't fix it for several weeks. Starting with a highlight: best EAF in January since June 2020!
100
Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
still playing on easy mode because there's no demand, so let's see how that changes when the sun goes away and private solar turns off.
100
Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
wait there are three > ILS – Interruptible Load Shed. This is consumer load(s) that can be contractually interrupted without notice or reduced by remote control or on instruction from Eskom National Control. Individual contracts place limitations on usage.
100
Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
Interruption of Supply and Manual Load Reduction looking good. I always forget exactly what these are an how they relate with each other
100
Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
Thermal is dropping, but that's a usual trend for this time of year. Hopefully it starts increasing from Jan->July again if we can keep squeezing the coal plants. Koeberg second unit is back, so we have 900MW of extra baseload to play with which is nice (and maybe related to not needing the OCGTs?)
100
Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
New installed renewable record of 7.5GW - looks like all those announced installations are slowly coming online. I'm not sure exactly when they count as 'installed' from.
100
Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
Eskom data - November 2025 End of Diesel? According to the data, we never generated more than 350MW with the OCGT backup generators, which is the lowest I have on record except for nov 2020 which might also be a glitch.
110
Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 04/11/2025
not visible in the monthly graphs yet, but the other Koeberg unit is busy powering up again. AFAIK this is the end of the cycling/swopping of the two units for refurbishment and refuelling, so we should have both running simultaneously for the first time in years.
100
Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 04/11/2025
The big drop in supply and demand from last month was not a one-off.
100
Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 04/11/2025
Lowest imports, maybe ever?
100
Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 04/11/2025
Using those diesel generators a bit more again as a result
100
Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 04/11/2025
Eskom data - October 2025 Not anything too interesting this month - EAF down again due to an increase in unplanned outages, but still 'ok' overall.
100
Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 03/10/2025
I'm not sure I totally understand each of these, but maybe it's because iOS includes transmission network faults. The transmission network seems to be the bottleneck now instead of generation which everyone has been focusing on, as many people predicted?
100
Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 03/10/2025
but ILS (interruptible load shed) went down 🤔
100
Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 03/10/2025
also weird, IOS (interruption of supply, a mechanism that lets Eskom cut off business users) went up a bit compared to last month.
100
Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 03/10/2025
Very low imports too. Is everything down. Massive demand drop. I need to go double check that I'm not missing data that causing this, because it looks sus.
200
Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 03/10/2025
We're hardly using the OCGT backup generators any more, with very low average and max use (relatively speaking).
100
Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 03/10/2025
I think the best EAF in september since 2018, top of the chart for my curve graphs as they don't go back that far.
100
Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 03/10/2025
Eskom data - September 2025 Another dip in unplanned outages takes us close to 2020 levels!
110
Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 15/09/2025
I'm guessing that another bigger than (I) expected dip in demand is an important factor here. Generation is only slightly up year on year, but demand is way down.
100
Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 15/09/2025
similar for diesel use, big improvement for the last few months, but similar to last winter.
100
Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 15/09/2025
EAF is up to best since July last year where it was slightly higher, but slightly better ratio of planned:unplanned since then so still a win.
100
Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 15/09/2025
Eskom data - August 2025 (finally) I finally got a reply to my data request for August data (usually takes a few hours / days, this time several weeks) Metrics looking good compared to the last few months, but not that far off where we were a year ago. Very nice dip in unplanned outages.
100
Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 04/08/2025
Kinda interesting pattern in Demand vs Generation here - demand is still dropping, so either SA is having a sunny winter or private solar isn't as big a factor as I hypothesized before in reducing demand (maybe the economy is just that dead?) Hopefully we can get back at least to 2024 levels soon
100
Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 04/08/2025
Thermal (coal) is looking really flat, so I'm not sure where all that extra availability is coming from. Maybe we have coal plants that are working but switched off? Not sure exactly how they calculate that re planned maintenance. Nuclear is also flat so it's not that
100
Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 04/08/2025
Diesel use also looking better - lowest since November 2024, but still twice as high as July 2024. And we're still using these things up to 3GW at peaks, so the max is still very high.
100
Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 04/08/2025
Eskom data - July 2025 Sorry I missed June, I was travelling. July is looking positive! Big decrease in total loss, and this time it's in the good way (decrease in unplanned, increase in planned)
110
Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦 @sixhobbits.bsky.social · 21/07/2025
Hidden here on the help page it mentions the pretty important distinction that you need Max to use Opus with Claude Code.
100