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Sinem Adar

@sinemadar.bsky.social
3.3K followers 428 following 1.8K posts

Head (CATS/SWPBerlin & CATS Network), Co-Head of the Autocratisation Thematic Group @SWP. Views personal. Writes in EN/TR

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Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social · 2h
Winning people’s hearts seems like an unattainable goal given the level of repression and coercion. Yet, the process of hollowing out the CHP, both as an institution and as a political symbol, has already begun.
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Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social · 3h
Should of course be „turning yellow“.
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Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social · 6h
With the Izmir Metropolitan Municipality now “turning red,” Erdoğan has secured a strategic victory in his long-standing struggle against secular republicans. This apparent victory may offset the turmoil caused by the stock market scandal in the short term.
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Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social · 5h
Just stumbled upon this video in the other space: x.com/Akparti/stat...
x.com
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Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social · 6h
Nope..Please do share if you come across anything.
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Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social · 6h
Yet, grievances and societal discontent sparked by the scandal are an entirely different matter and more difficult to contain in the medium to long term.
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Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social · 6h
With the Izmir Metropolitan Municipality now “turning red,” Erdoğan has secured a strategic victory in his long-standing struggle against secular republicans. This apparent victory may offset the turmoil caused by the stock market scandal in the short term.
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Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
www.ekathimerini.com/opinion/1316...
ekathimerini.com
The de-Turkification of our foreign policy | eKathimerini.com
Turkey believes the gap in strategic power between the two states has widened in its favor and seeks to completely overturn the balance of power. Put simply, it aims to turn Greece into a geopolitical...
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Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
(such as those between Slav Macedonians and Bulgarians or Kosovars and Serbs). We must also “rediscover” the various population groups in the region with whom we have traditional ties, ranging from the Greek communities of the Black Sea to the Christians of the Middle East."
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Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Interesting call for Greece's Davutoglu moment: "We need an outstanding network of embassies and diplomats who know well the countries of the Eastern Mediterranean, the Balkans, the Middle East, and the Black Sea region. We ought to take the initiative in intervening to resolve local problems
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Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Difficult not to given the scale and pace…
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Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
What is happening in Turkey is nothing less than a war of attrition against dissidence (be it political parties, be it organised civil society, be it critical media, be it cultural sector).
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Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Our (with Isabelle Werenfells) edited volume on diaspora politics at a time of democratic backsliding and autocratisation is now out. I am particularly happy as it is - for me - the first edited volume experience in German :) www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
swp-berlin.org
Diasporapolitik im Zeitalter der Autokratisierung
China, Eritrea, Indien, Marokko, Russland und die Türkei im Vergleich
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Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) @swp-berlin.org · 29/09/2026
Autoritäre Staaten instrumentalisieren ihre in Deutschland lebenden Bürger:innen für politische Ziele. Es geht um Machtsicherung, wirtschaftliche, regionale & globale Interessen sowie Nation Branding. Eine neue SWP-Studie analysiert diese Diaspora-Politiken: www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
swp-berlin.org
Diasporapolitik im Zeitalter der Autokratisierung
China, Eritrea, Indien, Marokko, Russland und die Türkei im Vergleich
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Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) @swp-berlin.org · 29/09/2026
Herausgeberinnen der Studie: Isabelle Werenfels und @sinemadar.bsky.social, mit Beiträgen von Carsten Schäfer, @gerritkurtz.bsky.social, David Kipp, Christian Wagner, @sabfis3.bsky.social
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Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
One should also mention regime survival among factors that exacerbate the situation.
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Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
As wars drag on, their number increases, and as systemic rivalry becomes even more pronounced, Turkey’s so-called balancing efforts reach their limits. A narrow economic margin for manoeuvre&technological dependencies further exacerbate this situation. The result is less balancing, more alignment.
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Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
If I recall correctly, this should be the first time that Erdogan has mentioned antisemitism alongside the usual talking points, that is, Islamophobia and xenophobia. It is also noteworthy how he wove all these different strands together with an anti-gender touch.
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Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The agreement over Turkey's gradual handover of the base to Iraq is not a sudden incidence. The two countries signed an MoU already at the end of 2024, agreeing on the transformation of Bashiqa camp into a training camp under the full responsibility of Iraqi armed forces.
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Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
About the MoU from 2024 and recalibration of Turkish strategy in Iraq, see the following piece from my colleague @nebahattanriverdi.bsky.social www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
swp-berlin.org
From Frontline to Central Regional Node: Turkey’s Recalibration of its Regional Strategy in Iraq
Once viewed by Ankara primarily as a fragmented security frontier, Iraq now sits at the centre of its regional strategy. This recalibration is...
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Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The pace and timing should be assessed - among other factors - against the backdrop of the PKK's disarmament.
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Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The agreement over Turkey's gradual handover of the base to Iraq is not a sudden incidence. The two countries signed an MoU already at the end of 2024, agreeing on the transformation of Bashiqa camp into a training camp under the full responsibility of Iraqi armed forces.
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Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Turkey revokes operating license of Iran's Mellat Bank two days after deciding to suspend flights by the Iranian carrier Mahan air. This reminded me of Hamidreza Azizi's piece back in Aug presenting different interpretations in Iran about the Mecca Pact:
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Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
and it operates exactly where Iran has the least capacity to respond in kind." www.irananalytica.org/p/how-iran-s...
irananalytica.org
How Iran Sees the “Mecca Defense Pact”
What a Trilateral Defense Pact Reveals About the Emerging Postwar Regional Order
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Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
"Ankara and Islamabad would face no requirement to fight Iran in order to support Riyadh. Restricting Iranian commerce or closing borders would suffice. [..] Deterrence, in this formulation, works through economic exposure rather than through mutual defense clauses,
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Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Turkey revokes operating license of Iran's Mellat Bank two days after deciding to suspend flights by the Iranian carrier Mahan air. This reminded me of Hamidreza Azizi's piece back in Aug presenting different interpretations in Iran about the Mecca Pact:
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Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
As the political landscape in Turkey moves increasingly away from political representation towards elite pacts, the media landscape is simultaneously transforming into a series of pillarised platforms for manufacturing consent.
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Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
As the political landscape in Turkey moves increasingly away from political representation towards elite pacts, the media landscape is simultaneously transforming into a series of pillarised platforms for manufacturing consent.
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Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
It is striking how frequently Ankara's rhetoric reappears in analyses of Turkey, blurring the distinction between facts and their representation.
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Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Erdogan's statements in Bishkek about Turkey's possible membership in the SCO are directed in the first place at Washington against the backdrop of defence cooperation and sales.
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Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Fascinating: www.theguardian.com/world/2026/s...
theguardian.com
UN to vote on adopting new world map that shows Africa’s true scale
Togo-sponsored resolution calls to phase out traditional map that depicts continent as similar size to Greenland
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Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Erdogan's statements in Bishkek about Turkey's possible membership in the SCO are directed in the first place at Washington against the backdrop of defence cooperation and sales.
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Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
As paradoxical as it might sound, particularly in the wake of Israel’s recent attack on the Abu Duhur airbase, I now consider it more likely than before that tensions between Israel and Turkey in Syria will ease. This situation is also linked to the dissolution of the SDF.
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Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
And many other reports in pro-govt media about the SDF's dissolution seem to be preparing the public for it.
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Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
As paradoxical as it might sound, particularly in the wake of Israel’s recent attack on the Abu Duhur airbase, I now consider it more likely than before that tensions between Israel and Turkey in Syria will ease. This situation is also linked to the dissolution of the SDF.
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Nate Schenkkan @nateschenkkan.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
ECHR/the Council of Europe has already survived multiple similar crises with Russia, Belarus, and Azerbaijan--Turkey will not break it
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Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Ankara understands this well. Presidential Chief Advisor Uçum warns against "the collapse of the ECHR system" if "decisions continue to be made against TR based on political calculations". He noted the possibility of Ankara reconsidering its status as a party to the European Human Rights Convention.
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Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Ankara understands this well. Presidential Chief Advisor Uçum warns against "the collapse of the ECHR system" if "decisions continue to be made against TR based on political calculations". He noted the possibility of Ankara reconsidering its status as a party to the European Human Rights Convention.
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Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
court politics it is.
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Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
PKK's disarmament and dissolution process has yielded its first outcome in Syria tonight.
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Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
After the much expected ECHR ruling on Osman Kavala, the real test now lies with Council of Europe. Ankara did not implement the earlier rulings. It is highly doubtful that it would this time.
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Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
After the much expected ECHR ruling on Osman Kavala, the real test now lies with Council of Europe. Ankara did not implement the earlier rulings. It is highly doubtful that it would this time.
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Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/...
aa.com.tr
Türkiye is ‘key’ on new road to peace in Middle East: US envoy
‘We've always reflected on Türkiye as being a great NATO ally,’ US Ambassador Tom Barrack tells Anadolu | Anadolu
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Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
In fact, Tom Barrack repeated yesterday - what he had already noted in his interview with Anadolu Agency back in 2025 - that Turkey and Israel misunderstand their mutual territorial desires and a reconciliation between the two countries is not only possible but also necessary.
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Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
I am not convinced that Israel’s latest attack on Syria was based solely on domestic political considerations. It does provide Ankara a "rally round the flag" effect, though.
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Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
"“No Israeli prime minister will allow the Turks to gain a foothold in a country that borders Israel,” the senior Israeli diplomatic source said." www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...
al-monitor.com
Israel fears Turkey’s Syria ambitions and doubts Trump will stop them
Israeli officials remain skeptical of Turkish and Syrian denials over Ankara’s military ambitions in Syria, warning that a deeper Turkish foothold could threaten Israel’s security and strain its ties ...
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Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
I am not convinced that Israel’s latest attack on Syria was based solely on domestic political considerations. It does provide Ankara a "rally round the flag" effect, though.
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Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Israel hitting the Abu al-Duhur airbase in Idlib yesterday is as much about Turkey-Israel tensions in Syria as it is about the competition over the control of airspace.
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Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Israel hitting the Abu al-Duhur airbase in Idlib yesterday is as much about Turkey-Israel tensions in Syria as it is about the competition over the control of airspace.
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Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Turkey and Israel had the first round of technical talks already back in April 2025 in Baku to set up a deconfliction mechanism in Syria.
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