Jack Sillin @sillin.bsky.social · 27/07/2026Pour one out for what may be the final instance of "getting NAM'd" whereby the NAM model gives false hope of a robust coastal low w/strong frontogenesis banding over a major metro area. It is admittedly more fun when multiple ptypes are involved. The NAM is being pushed into retirement this fall :( 2112 0
Jack Sillin @sillin.bsky.social · 11/06/2026Sorry to hear you were hacked but glad you’re here! Twas a good day in the Missouri valley even though we opted out of the jungle fest farther east that resulted in tornadoes 030 0
Jack Sillin @sillin.bsky.social · 30/05/2026Passing a pleasant morning at the McCook NE public library 0150 0
Jack Sillin @sillin.bsky.social · 30/05/2026This is probably when the northern ones had the most promise. A brief entirely scud lowering and then the gust front hit 060 0
Jack Sillin @sillin.bsky.social · 30/05/2026Best shot of the day was undoubtedly when that updraft was on its way out 290 0
Jack Sillin @sillin.bsky.social · 21/05/2026late may / early june tornado climo: the bar to produce tornadoes is now set on the floor 2026: hold my beer while i grab a shovel 2121 0
Jack Sillin @sillin.bsky.social · 29/09/2025this makes me viscerally angry. what a cool tool lit on fire for no reason 2244 0
Jack Sillin @sillin.bsky.social · 25/08/2025Monday. 5pm. 7th Ave from clarkson st. We looooveeeeeee congestion pricing! 0121 0
Jack Sillin @sillin.bsky.social · 24/08/2025I like cold and snow and mountains. I do not like heat, humidity, and insane politics 2222 0
Jack Sillin @sillin.bsky.social · 18/08/2025Following up after a weekend of observing #Erin. The real track fell on the left side of the ECMWF Ensemble guidance envelope, but near a solid cluster of members. Only one deepmind member showed a scenario remotely similar to what actually happened. 34410 0
Jack Sillin @sillin.bsky.social · 15/08/2025This morning's ECMWF Ensemble forecast scenarios for #Erin (left) vs Google DeepMind (right). Which do you think provides more useful information about tropical cyclone forecast uncertainty? 8170 0
Jack Sillin @sillin.bsky.social · 28/07/2025In 2028 my primary vote will go to whichever candidate promises the worst public humiliation for everyone involved in DOGE 0122 0
Jack Sillin @sillin.bsky.social · 28/07/2025Hey Sean Duffy the nyc subway works way better than this 160 0
Jack Sillin @sillin.bsky.social · 07/07/2025this tail event - 10-15" of rain in the upper Guadaloupe basin in 12-24hrs - was explicitly forecast by several high res models leading up to the event! I dont think it was literally impossible to forecast 100 0
Jack Sillin @sillin.bsky.social · 15/06/2025The crowd in Portland Maine earlier today, shortly after we all sang the star spangled banner. Keep it up team 🇺🇸 2827 0
Jack Sillin @sillin.bsky.social · 11/06/2025Enhanced/modified by outflow from those showers an hour or so ago? 010 0
Jack Sillin @sillin.bsky.social · 04/06/2025Wow someone’s been looking at my list of most visited websites 061 0
Jack Sillin @sillin.bsky.social · 01/06/2025Let’s do it I’m getting married in October at a little cabin on a lake in Maine. There will be a formal reception the next day but for the ceremony I want something rustic but also put together. Full suit feels too formal. Khakis too preppy. Jeans+flannel (my everyday outfit) too casual. Thoughts? 2341 0
Jack Sillin @sillin.bsky.social · 30/05/2025if you wanna tell a story about the importance of having in-situ obs between 925-500mb, this morning provides a pretty good case study IMO 1141 0
Jack Sillin @sillin.bsky.social · 19/05/2025Well that was a pretty freakin cool first (5) tornado(es) 3503 0
Jack Sillin @sillin.bsky.social · 16/05/2025Seems like the proximate cause there was the compressor stalling not taking off overweight but yeah no good to dump fuel. Mostly just stupid to put too much on to start. Like someone is supposed to figure this out! 120 0
Jack Sillin @sillin.bsky.social · 20/04/2025Busy Easter Sunday at the local fast charger. We need more! 040 0
Jack Sillin @sillin.bsky.social · 17/04/2025The storm near Beaver OK around sunset ended up being the only thing remotely worth seeing, but man the heading east option had a lot of cam support and ended up burning a bit of time near coldwater as a result 040 0
Jack Sillin @sillin.bsky.social · 10/04/2025Barring some mesoscale surprise on wednesday I will soon be extending my three-year streak of tornadoless chasing on the great plains. Please clap! 0100 0
Jack Sillin @sillin.bsky.social · 01/04/2025OFFICIAL FORECAST for every Farm to Market road within 50mi of OKC at 23z this evening 082 0
Jack Sillin @sillin.bsky.social · 27/03/2025lots of problems in the world at the moment including the fact that chasecation25, moved out of june in hopes of actually seeing tornadoes, appears set to kick off without a cloud in the sky or a dew point above 30 from Calgary to Corpus Christi 140 0
Jack Sillin @sillin.bsky.social · 25/03/2025not sure what it says about the new cali wildfire maps and/or WaPo's visualization thereof that the portion of Altadena labeled as "low risk" from wildfires literally burned to the ground from a wildfire 3 months ago 3375 0
Jack Sillin @sillin.bsky.social · 13/02/2025even the HRRR analysis is too warm on the maine coast! 100 0
Jack Sillin @sillin.bsky.social · 11/02/2025this is 100% the correct t2m forecast for 18z thursday change my mind (you cant) #MEwx 230 0
Jack Sillin @sillin.bsky.social · 09/02/2025An early morning walk in heavy snow never gets old 1250 0
Jack Sillin @sillin.bsky.social · 04/02/2025Guess nobody is allowed to look into model biases anymore? Thankfully NWP is never “biased towards” being too warm or too cold in certain environments. Barrier jets or blocks that act as a barrier to the mean flow? Sorry! Those are woke now 1193 0
Jack Sillin @sillin.bsky.social · 30/01/2025This is fifth avenue at 18th st at 4:45 pm yesterday afternoon and if you think this isn’t worth $9 idk how to help you 1292 0
Jack Sillin @sillin.bsky.social · 28/01/2025looks like the spectacular bust crew is gonna get it. only five days of PR and then whoooooo knows 170 0
Jack Sillin @sillin.bsky.social · 09/01/2025@simonleewx.com either a spectacular example of s2s predictability coming up or a spectacular bust. got to be one of the stronger long lead signals at least recently 6181 0
Jack Sillin @sillin.bsky.social · 24/12/2024quite an impressive regime shift once it eases off just a little 121 0
Jack Sillin @sillin.bsky.social · 20/12/2024we love forecast hour 9 agreement among short-range guidance 180 0