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Oleksandr Shepotylo

@shepotylo.bsky.social
593 followers 1.2K following 1.6K posts

International Trade, Productivity, Security @ Aston Centre for Business Prosperity | Born and raised in Ukraine | Large data analysis enthusiast | Views my own #EconSky #trade #economics

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Reposted by Oleksandr Shepotylo
Jake Broe @realjakebroe.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
This tweet is from 500 days ago. Apparently the "really bad things" that would happen to Putin and Russia if they refused to stop their war would be Trump lifting sanctions on them and paying them billions of dollars for less than a days worth of America's diesel needs.
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Oleksandr Shepotylo @shepotylo.bsky.social · 21h
Things may ( will?) unwind very quickly for the US - midterm election shock => financial and bond market de-risk => all those ridiculous stock market valuations burst, and lowish interest rates go through the roof => very interesting 2 more years ahead
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Oleksandr Shepotylo @shepotylo.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
I have started a research project on UK car industry productivity. turns out, it went into accelerated decline post 2021. more results to follow
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Oleksandr Shepotylo @shepotylo.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
It is really sad news indeed. Hopefully, just the end of the first chapter???
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Oleksandr Shepotylo @shepotylo.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Idea for research: The news on making Leonid Ragozin a persona non grata in Latvia exposed all members of the Russian disinformation network to come out and tweet against this decision. Can be considered how an exogenous shock propagate within a Russian built disinformation network.
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Oleksandr Shepotylo @shepotylo.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
World moved on since Brexit referendum, but it does not change the fact that EU is the closest and largest UK partner and productivity is linked to EU supply chain embeddedness www.productivity.ac.uk/news/the-opt...
productivity.ac.uk
The options are familiar. The world around them is not. - The Productivity Institute
Ten years after Brexit, what do we know about its impact on UK productivity? Jun Du explores the evidence and the changing UK-EU landscape.
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Oleksandr Shepotylo @shepotylo.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
In 2016 the UK built 30 cars for every 100 made in Germany. Today: 17. Before 2016 the UK outgrew Germany by 4.6pp a year. Brexit uncertainty cost 2.9pp a year. The TCA cost 8.2pp. Rules of origin, broken supply chains, and now "Made in Europe". shepotylo.com/blog/2026-10...
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Oleksandr Shepotylo @shepotylo.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Like never before
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Oleksandr Shepotylo @shepotylo.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
that's great, but beating Spain and Argentina is still on the wish list
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Oleksandr Shepotylo @shepotylo.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Tucker Carlson says Russia's economy is bigger than Britain's. He's wrong. At market exchange rates, Russia's economy is about 64% the size of the UK's. His number uses PPP, which compares living standards, not economic power. shepotylo.com/blog/2026-10...
shepotylo.com
Is Russia’s economy bigger than Britain’s? Nominal GDP, PPP and the economics of isolation – Oleksandr Shepotylo
Tucker Carlson says Russia’s economy is larger than Britain’s. At PPP it is; at market exchange rates it is about two-thirds the size. Why the gap exists, why isolation widens it, and what the Soviet ...
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Oleksandr Shepotylo @shepotylo.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
A sign of dictatorship? Russian prices: +50% since the full-scale invasion. Worst of any major economy. In the West, half that inflation toppled governments. Russians just gave United Russia its largest Duma majority ever — 355/450 seats. shepotylo.com/blog/2026-09...
shepotylo.com
Fifty Percent: How Russia’s Cost-of-Living Crisis Became a Landslide – Oleksandr Shepotylo
Russian consumer prices are up 50% since 2022, the worst inflation among major economies, yet the Kremlin just won its biggest parliamentary majority ever. A look at why the bill never reaches the bal...
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Reposted by Oleksandr Shepotylo
Best for Britain @bestforbritain.org · 15/09/2026
🚨 The headline numbers are large: a 53.8% decline in export product varieties to the EU and a 16.5% fall in export values (meaning that fewer types of products are now being sold by UK firms to the EU). Creating trade barriers with your largest trading partner is economically illiterate.
britishchambers.org.uk
After SPS: the EU trade barrier that needs fixing next - British Chambers of Commerce
EAC member, Prof. Jun Du, explains how to solve the UK trade barriers with the EU.
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Oleksandr Shepotylo @shepotylo.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Thanks 27th ETSG in Exeter and looking forward to next ETSG 28th in Toledo
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Oleksandr Shepotylo @shepotylo.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Joseph Stiglitz on how to build a better AI economy - giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... via @FT
giftarticle.ft.com
Joseph Stiglitz on how to build a better AI economy
A slow rollout will disappoint investors. A fast one risks undermining the industry’s own foundations. But managed carefully, this is a technology that could benefit us all
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Reposted by Oleksandr Shepotylo
Roger Myerson @rbmyerson.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Yesterday the President offered to send $5000 to every adult American citizen. But where would he get the Trillion Dollars to pay for all these checks? Today the Market reacted. The 30-year US treasury rate jumped to 5.36%, highest since 2004. www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jon...
morningstar.com
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Nears 5% as Oil Fuels Inflation Fears — 3rd Update
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Reposted by Oleksandr Shepotylo
David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Very long winded way of saying that nothing much new is expected to happen in UK EU trade. Though I'd add, compared to a few months ago, the UK has really slipped down the Brussels agenda (this is complicated by the uninformed always saying this) www.politico.eu/article/andy...
politico.eu
Andy Burnham’s big new Brexit deal isn’t coming anytime soon
The new prime minister’s red lines are making a more radical reimagining of the U.K.-EU relationship implausible, EU officials say.
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Oleksandr Shepotylo @shepotylo.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
It is time for citizens of Saxony-Anhalt to establish Saxony-Anhalt People's Republic and ask Russia to incorporate them into Russian Federation
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Oleksandr Shepotylo @shepotylo.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
Another bigly win from a very stable genius
static.klipy.com
Brooker2x
ALT: Brooker2x
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Oleksandr Shepotylo @shepotylo.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
Trump set reducing trade balance as a primary objective of his economic policy. He thought that imposing "reciprocal" tariffs would help to achieve it. He was wrong and we (trade economist) told him so He presided over 5 most negative monthly trade balances in the whole history of the US
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Reposted by Oleksandr Shepotylo
Adam Bienkov @adambienkov.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Nigel Farage filmed celebrating illegal foreign donations Undercover footage reveals plot to break the law by funnelling offshore funds through a UK donor. Donations funded a series of widely reported polls boosting Reform ahead of the local elections channel4news.substack.com/p/exclusive-...
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Oleksandr Shepotylo @shepotylo.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
That is a very important question as many people think they understand economics and can call themselves economists like they think they can coach a national football team without proper training and specialist knowledge
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Oleksandr Shepotylo @shepotylo.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
But of course, this argument is ridiculous, as well as the argument of the positive effect of being a colony ( de jure or de facto) on welfare. GDP per capita in a colony is not a good indicator of quality of life if resources are extracted and distribution of wealth is not fare.
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Oleksandr Shepotylo @shepotylo.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Also, notice that the fastest growth strongly correlates with countries of Nazi coalition - it was catching up after the WWII collapse and distraction, nothing to do with Soviet developmental policies, so perhaps you can move forward a thesis that losing a war is good for economic growth?
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Oleksandr Shepotylo @shepotylo.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
There was nothing special about Finland economic growth, it was a poor country terrorized by first Russian Empire and then USSR for decades, coming out of a devastating conflict. It was doomed to grow as Europe was having its growth miracle. So Finlandization was not beneficial for growth.
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Reposted by Oleksandr Shepotylo
Kristian Kiehling @kristiankiehling.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Inexplicably, Western journalists continue to perpetuate outdated imperialist stereotypes when reporting on 'Eastern Europe', despite knowing better. Bad Baltic Takes has therefore compiled a much-needed style guide to address this issue. www.badbaltic.com/if-eastern-e...
badbaltic.com
If Eastern Europeans reported the world like the world reports Eastern Europe
Here’s what those tropes, clichés, and stereotypes sound like in reverse.
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Reposted by Oleksandr Shepotylo
Darth Putin @darthputinkgb.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
OTD in 1939 the Molotov Ribbentrop pact was signed. It remains one of the very few treaties we have honored.
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Reposted by Oleksandr Shepotylo
Savchenko Volodymyr @savchenkoua.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
🙏🇺🇦 People take shelter in an underground parking lot during the Russian missile strikes on Kyiv. Two people have already died in the attack, six people have been injured. ❗️A school building was damaged in the Solomyanskyi district of the capital, people are trapped in a shelter, — KMVA
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Oleksandr Shepotylo @shepotylo.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Claude has told me already 3 times to switch from VS Code to Positron. Coincidence?
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Reposted by Oleksandr Shepotylo
Jacob Öberg @profjacob.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
🚨🚨 #EUsanctions: Austria's intelligence agency uncovered an international network #circumventing EU sanctions imposed against #Moscow to supply #Russian cruise missiles and fighter jets, the country's Interior Ministry announced yesterday. 🧵 kyivindependent.com/austria-unco...
kyivindependent.com
Austria uncovers international network circumventing EU sanctions to supply Russian cruise missiles, jets
"We will continue to take decisive action, with full international cooperation, against those actors who attempt to circumvent legal prohibitions to support the Russian arms industry," Austrian State ...
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Reposted by Oleksandr Shepotylo
MAKS 26 👀🇺🇦 @maks23.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
🇺🇦💯💯💯
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Reposted by Oleksandr Shepotylo
Kate from Kharkiv @kateinkharkiv.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
A Russian drone completely burned down the Holy Protection Church (Sviato-Vvedenska) in Boryslav, Kherson region, built in 1726. The church was an architectural monument of national significance and one of the few surviving examples of Cossack wooden sacral architecture.
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Oleksandr Shepotylo @shepotylo.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
Bloody hell, pine trees and submarine paintings. But where is your navy on the Russian Navy day?
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Oleksandr Shepotylo @shepotylo.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
When a country without a navy decimated your fleet, but you still celebrate the day of the Russian Navy
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Oleksandr Shepotylo @shepotylo.bsky.social · 25/07/2026
Putin is more and more isolated, looks pathetic in this video
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Reposted by Oleksandr Shepotylo
MAKS 26 👀🇺🇦 @maks23.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
🤬☢️ SBU documented new facts of Russia's use of depleted uranium ammunition The enemy began to install radioactive elements from R-60M missiles into Geran-2 type strike drones, with which it attacked the Chernihiv region.
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Oleksandr Shepotylo @shepotylo.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
on how to respond to Russia's mental war epik.eu/publication/...
epik.eu
Going mental: Russia's cognitive war against Europe
The Kremlin regards democracies as a direct threat to its survival. Its goal is not just to seize territory, but to conquer minds and undermine the foundations of Europe’s collective identity. How can...
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Oleksandr Shepotylo @shepotylo.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
Anchelotti will unlikly travel to Brazil
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Oleksandr Shepotylo @shepotylo.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
I am speechless. Great ball! Brazil is beaten
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Oleksandr Shepotylo @shepotylo.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
Actually Norway still control the ball. Amazing
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Oleksandr Shepotylo @shepotylo.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
We are going tonsee 10 plus minutes of relentless Brazil attacks. Go Norway!
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Oleksandr Shepotylo @shepotylo.bsky.social · 04/07/2026
Goooooooooooool!!!
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Oleksandr Shepotylo @shepotylo.bsky.social · 04/07/2026
Oops...
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Oleksandr Shepotylo @shepotylo.bsky.social · 04/07/2026
Go Cape Verde!!!
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Oleksandr Shepotylo @shepotylo.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
In the crazy world we live in, bad economic news on the state of the US economy triggers a rally in the US stock market
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Oleksandr Shepotylo @shepotylo.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
I do not remember when one team looked so dominant in world football as France at the US 2026 World Cup. Very impressive win yesterday. Polling markets were impressed as well. Now France's probability of winning is priced at 1/3.
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Oleksandr Shepotylo @shepotylo.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
Norway walked the ball in. Almost blew it as well
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Oleksandr Shepotylo @shepotylo.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
Great news, it is an example of united Europe defending itself, relying on is own resources and shaping the future in its own interest in the wolrd where hostile powers like Russia are determined to destroy European project
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Reposted by Oleksandr Shepotylo
MAKS 26 👀🇺🇦 @maks23.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
👀 For the first time, footage from a Ukrainian reconnaissance UAV has been released online, which filmed the launch of Russian Geran-2/Harpiya-A1 from a car. The further fate of the pickup truck is destruction.
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Reposted by Oleksandr Shepotylo
fife4europe #FBPE #RejoinEU @fife4europe.bsky.social · 21/06/2026
​A decade after the vote, the reality for UK small businesses is grim. 63% of SMEs trading with the EU face "significant" barriers, and a third plan to downsize or stop entirely. "Sovereignty" shouldn’t mean replacing 24-hour deliveries with weeks of deadweight red tape. 📋📉 #Brexit #UKBusiness
newagebd.net
A decade on, Brexit still bites for UK small businesses
Ten years on from a referendum that triggered Britain’s exit from the European Union, the nation’s small- and medium-size businesses find themselves caught between mountains of paperwork, rising costs...
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Oleksandr Shepotylo @shepotylo.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
That's right
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