iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by Shani Cohen

Chris Murphy @chrismurphyct.bsky.social · 03/04/2025

Those trying to understand the tariffs as economic policy are dangerously naive. No, the tariffs are a tool to collapse our democracy. A means to compel loyalty from every business that will need to petition Trump for relief. 1/ A 🧵 to explain his plan and how we fight back.

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Shani Cohen @shanicn.bsky.social · 27/03/2025

I strongly recommend to read Shai's piece on the Boston Review, and follow @molad-institute.bsky.social, who are finally on bluesky!

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Shani Cohen @shanicn.bsky.social · 15/03/2025

Some of the words banned in different government agencies, brought to you by the great champions of free speech.

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Shani Cohen @shanicn.bsky.social · 22/02/2025

The opposition to continuing the hostage and ceasefire deal presents itself as the voice of logic. In reality, it promotes a distorted, illogical view of responsibility and the state's role. My new op-ed in Haaretz. www.haaretz.com/israel-news/...

haaretz.com

Opponents of the hostage deal have a message for fellow Israelis: The state won't save you | Opinion

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Shani Cohen @shanicn.bsky.social · 19/02/2025

המתנגדים לעסקת החטופים אוהבים להציג את עצמם כמי שמייצגים שיקולים רציונליים – ואת תומכי העסקה כמי שנכנעים לרגש. אבל האמת היא שהתפיסה שלהם, אליה הם מתייחסים בתור ״קול ההיגיון״, היא לא פחות משכתוב תפקידה ההיסטורי של מדינת ישראל. טור חדש שלי ב״הארץ״. www.haaretz.co.il/magazine/the...

haaretz.co.il

ההתנגדות לעסקת מקבעת תפיסה מחרידה: מדי פעם יחטפו אותנו, וזו בעיה שלנו

הארץ

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Reposted by Shani Cohen

Shengwu Li @shengwuli.bsky.social · 22/01/2025

I did a NYT video interview—along with voices from Hungary, Nicaragua, and Russia— about how repression works in authoritarian states. www.nytimes.com/video/opinio...

nytimes.com

Video: Opinion | How Tyranny Begins

Tyranny doesn’t happen overnight. Take it from the people who missed the first signs.

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Reposted by Shani Cohen

Anders Kjelsrud @anderskjelsrud.bsky.social · 07/01/2025

**New working paper** How does the under-representation of females in Economics affect the career trajectory of female Ph.D. students? Sahar Parsa and I look at this in a new working paper by exploring sabbatical leaves taken by female professors at top-50 US Econ departments.

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Reposted by Shani Cohen

Florian Ederer @florianederer.bsky.social · 03/01/2025

Ran Spiegler has a new book out that I found very entertaining. It's a collection of essays offering accessible introductions to modern classics of economic theory: global games, Bayesian persuasion, hold-up problem, competitive screening, ... And it's FREE! direct.mit.edu/books/oa-mon...

direct.mit.edu

The Curious Culture of Economic Theory

An essay collection that insightfully explores the professional culture of contemporary economic theory, highlighting key features of successful economic t

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Reposted by Shani Cohen

Ben Golub @bengolub.bsky.social · 24/12/2024

In economics, editors, referees, and authors often behave as if a published paper should reflect some kind of authoritative consensus. As a result, valuable debate happens in secret, and the resulting paper is an opaque compromise with anonymous co-authors called referees. 1/

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Shani Cohen @shanicn.bsky.social · 25/11/2024

I recently decided that I want to become "that person", here for the recommendations!

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Christopher Berry @cjpberry.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

Well summarized in the thread. It’s a treat — explains some of the dissonance. drive.google.com/file/d/1No3h...

drive.google.com

Shani Cohen JMP.pdf

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Reposted by Shani Cohen

Stephanie Wang @sweiwang.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

Very nice JMP that might inspired experimentalists to revisit some of the classic results in experimental asset markets. Note the predictions that are distinct from those derived from the Harrison-Kreps style models of overpricing. #econsky #econjmp

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Reposted by Shani Cohen

Barry Cynamon @cynamon.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

It has been a while since I wanted to sit down with a hot cocoa and a working paper. The atmospheric river and this job market paper on Dynamic Cursed Expectations have me there. ☕️📄

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Shani Cohen @shanicn.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

Thanks for the comment! We surely could take into account that the realized price will carry new information, but the experimental literature shows that it might be hard. Ngangoué and Weizsäcker show this difference in behavior with limit orders vs observed prices www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

aeaweb.org

Learning from Unrealized versus Realized Prices

(May 2021) - Our experiments investigate the extent to which traders learn from the price, differentiating between situations where orders are submitted before versus after the price has realized. In ...

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Reposted by Shani Cohen

Vitali Gretschko @vitalig.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

Brilliant idea, explained simply. Will definitely read the paper and think about how to use it in my work.

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Shani Cohen @shanicn.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

הלוואי שזה עלי! אתמול קראתי פוסט על איך מתישהו מגיעים למצב של אדישות. אני עוד לא שם לצערי אז לא יכולה להעיד

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Shani Cohen @shanicn.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

And here is a link to paper! #EconSky drive.google.com/file/d/1No3h...

drive.google.com

Shani Cohen JMP.pdf

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Reposted by Shani Cohen

Shengwu Li @shengwuli.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

My student and coauthor Shani Cohen is on the job market! bsky.app/profile/shan...

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Reposted by Shani Cohen

Ali Shourideh @shourideh.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

My favorite kind of behavioral economics. Take a simple deviation from the standard properties of learning and explore all of its strategic implications.

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Shani Cohen @shanicn.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

the true return distribution is a mean-preserving spread of the one that agents in DCEE use. Dynamic Cursed Expectations are defined for a general framework and can be applied to many different models of competitive markets, including a variety of applications in macroeconomics and finance. 15/15

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Shani Cohen @shanicn.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

This application suggests that asset overpricing can come from underestimation of the risk. When ‘good things go together’ and ‘bad things go together’, neglecting those correlations makes the agent consider a ‘less risky’ distribution: 14/

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Shani Cohen @shanicn.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

In DCEE, I would neglect that correlation. I would be correct about the marginal distribution of Tuesday’s price, and about the marginal distribution of Wednesday’s dividend, but not realize that the two are correlated. Under risk aversion, that leads to overpricing of the risky asset. 13/

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Shani Cohen @shanicn.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

The price they are willing to pay is correlated with the asset value: if Tuesday’s resale price is high, the dividend pay on Wednesday is also likely to be high. Hence, my risk is correlated. If Tuesday’s resale potential is bad, Wednesday’s prospects are also probably bad. 12/

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Shani Cohen @shanicn.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

Information is released over time, thus potential buyers on Tuesday are more informed than I am today about the asset dividend. 11/

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Shani Cohen @shanicn.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

Suppose that I buy a risky asset on Monday and think: I can either sell it on the market on Tuesday, or if Tuesday’s price does not look great, I could keep it and get a dividend on Wednesday. 10/

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Shani Cohen @shanicn.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

Overpricing comes from speculative motives, with the following intuition ->> 9/

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Shani Cohen @shanicn.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

What are the implications for behavior in markets? I define the corresponding equilibrium concept, Dynamic Cursed Expectations Equilibrium, and show that in an asset pricing model, it leads to (1) trading where rational agents would not trade, and (2) overpricing of risky assets. 8/

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Shani Cohen @shanicn.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

They are correct in understanding the marginal distributions of future events, but treat events at different future periods as independent. For example, they don’t realize that tomorrow’s price of a financial asset contains information about the dividend pay of the asset at some later date. 7/

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Shani Cohen @shanicn.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

I propose an alternative: Dynamic Cursed Expectations, where agents learn correctly from observed past events about future events, but don’t take into account learning more in the future. 6/

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Shani Cohen @shanicn.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

Standard solution concepts, such as Rational Expectations, cannot answer that. They describe agents who fully understand how each future event will impact the probability of later future events (the full joint distribution). 5/

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Shani Cohen @shanicn.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

Recent experiments show that people find it hard to reason about a hypothetical event — but do much better when reasoning about ~the exact same event~ when it is observed. What does that mean for behavior in competitive markets? 4/

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Shani Cohen @shanicn.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

To do so optimally, they should condition on the strike price being met. But when the limit order is submitted, the price of the stock is hypothetical. And reasoning about hypothetical events is hard! 3/

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Shani Cohen @shanicn.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

Behavior in markets often requires this kind of contingent thinking. Take financial markets: it is common for traders to submit limit orders, indicating that they would buy a stock if the price is below some threshold. 2/

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Shani Cohen @shanicn.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

I am on the job market, which seems like a great opportunity for my first post on here! My job market paper is about failures of contingent thinking -- the act of reasoning about hypothetical events. 1/

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