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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 04/09/2025

The last two times this yield curve cycled from inversion to a spread of +1.25%, it coincided with the two most wicked bear markets in generations.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 04/09/2025

The Wall Street Journal noted that the yield spread between the 2-year Treasury note and 30-year Treasury bond has steepened to the widest point in several years.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 22/08/2025

🔗 Read our Senior Analyst Jason Goepfert's Aug 20 article "Small options traders show this isn't a 2021 repeat"- full report available: payhip.com/b/XmFnZ

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 22/08/2025

The premiums spent on call options minus put options, as a % of U.S. market cap, are historically high. But they're less than a third of what they were in 2021.

SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 22/08/2025

Small options traders are less of a force than they were 4 years ago.Still, they've been pushing their bullish bets...just not to the degree they were a few years ago.

SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 22/08/2025

🔗Read our Senior Analyst Dean Christians's Aug 19 article "In sync in the Asia-Pacific" - full report available: payhip.com/b/hdHGI

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 22/08/2025

For the first time since 2021, every single MSCI Asia-Pacific country index is now trading above its 200-day average. When over 95% of Asia-Pacific countries exceeded their long-term average, the MSCI Asia-Pacific index has historically delivered an impressive 29% annualized return.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 22/08/2025

🔗Read our Senior Analyst Jay kaeppel's Aug 15 article "Monetary policy and inflation fears have peaked" - full report available: payhip.com/b/rutB7

SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 22/08/2025

Human nature never changes. When bad economic news arises, investors become more fearful as things worsen. Two little-known datasets have highlighted significant recent concerns regarding monetary policy and inflation. According to Jay kaeppel,history suggests that this is a good thing.

SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 20/08/2025

🔗Read our Senior Analyst Jason Goepfert's Aug 18 article "Investors ignore Berkshire, buy everything else" - full report available: payhip.com/b/PLWiJ

SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 20/08/2025

The ratio of that stock to the S&P 500 has plunged more than 20% over 90 days. 5 out of 6 previous times, BRK rallied at least 20% over the following six months.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 20/08/2025

One stock not among the recent surge is Berkshire Hathaway. A retiring legend and record cash balance during a momentum market are deadly for returns.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 20/08/2025

🔗Read our Senior Analyst Jay kaeppel's Aug 13 article "The continuing case for technology"- full report available : payhip.com/b/x0Pct

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 20/08/2025

The technology sector has roared higher following an early-year sell-off. Oversold signals in April followed by recent continuation signals suggest the rally could continue longer than many may suspect according to Jay kaeppel

SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 18/08/2025

🔗 Read our Senior Analyst Dean Christians's Aug 13 article "A bullish blast in breadth": users.sentimentrader.com/users/modele...

SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 18/08/2025

Following a four-day pullback, buyers regained control, propelling the S&P 500 to fresh record territory on Tuesday. Market breadth was equally impressive, as NYSE advancers outpaced decliners by a 4-to-1 margin in two of the last seven sessions.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 15/08/2025

🔗 Read our Senior Analyst Jason Goepfert's Aug 13 article "Small business optimism is rebounding": users.sentimentrader.com/users/sentim...

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 15/08/2025

Ironically, the biggest beneficiary of improved small business sentiment was the large-cap S&P 500 index.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 15/08/2025

Small business owners are feeling better. For the first time in several months, the NFIB survey popped above 100. For the small-cap Russell 2000 index, a reading above 100 is not necessarily a great sign.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 13/08/2025

🔗 Read our Senior Analyst Jason Goepfert's Aug 11 article "A record high with record weakness": users.sentimentrader.com/users/sentim...

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 13/08/2025

For the 1st time since inception, NDX closed at a record high with less than 48% of its members trading above their 50-day moving average. Over the past 40 years, an average of 76% of members were above their 50-day average when the NDX reached a high.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 13/08/2025

The Nasdaq 100 just did something it's never done before. Not in a good way.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 08/08/2025

🔗 Read our Senior Analyst Jason Goepfert's Aug 6 article "A simple 3-pronged system for bitcoin": users.sentimentrader.com/users/sentim...

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 08/08/2025

This system just flipped to bearish for the first time in over a month.

SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 08/08/2025

Bitcoin tends to react well when trend, sentiment, and breadth is supportive. A simple Triple 40 system invests when bitcoin is above its 40-day average, at least 40% of traders are bullish, and 40% of cryptocurrencies are in uptrends.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 07/08/2025

🔗 Read our Senior Analyst Dean Christians's Aug 4 article "Did this price pattern mark a top for equities?": users.sentimentrader.com/users/modele...

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 07/08/2025

While this back-to-back shift in momentum may appear ominous on the surface, especially after reaching all-time highs, history suggests it's more reflective of the natural ebb and flow within an uptrend.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 07/08/2025

The S&P 500 just exhibited a rare pattern by rising for at least four consecutive days to a record high, only to follow that with four straight days of losses.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 06/08/2025

🔗 Read our Senior Analyst Jason Goepfert's Aug 4 article "Macro conditions are on the edge of ugliness": users.sentimentrader.com/users/sentim...

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 06/08/2025

Macro conditions in the U.S. are not great. Our Macro Index Model's latest reading has a better-than-even historical record of preceding a recession within one year. It won't take much for the model to fall further, and that would significantly raise investors' risks.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 04/08/2025

🔗 Read our Senior Analyst Jay kaeppel’s Jun 28 article "3 keys align for commodities": users.sentimentrader.com/users/kaeppe...

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 04/08/2025

Jay kaeppel highlighted in a recent post that price, cyclical, and seasonal factors are aligning favorably for commodities, creating a potential opportunity for investors in commodity ETFs.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 04/08/2025

🔗 Read our Senior Analyst Dean Christians's Jul 31 article "A "perfect" sector trend signal just triggered": users.sentimentrader.com/users/modele...

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 04/08/2025

As shown in the chart below, the S&P 500 delivered an annualized return of 18.2% when at least 10 sectors traded above their long-term average.

SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 04/08/2025

Every S&P 500 sector except health care has closed above its 200-day moving average. This kind of alignment is particularly encouraging after a period when none of the sectors were trading above their 200-day averages.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 01/08/2025

🔗Read our Senior Analyst Dean Christians's article Jul 29 "Bullish markets break records": users.sentimentrader.com/users/modele...

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 01/08/2025

On Monday, the world's most benchmarked index notched its sixth consecutive record high, completing the second-fastest rebound from a six-month low to this many all-time highs, trailing only 1961.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 30/07/2025

🔗Read our Senior Analyst Jason Goepfert's article Jul 28 "Calendar compression in fear": users.sentimentrader.com/users/sentim...

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 30/07/2025

Since the end of the global financial crisis, the VIX's Bollinger Bands compressed this tightly 5 other times. Within the next 4 months, the VIX jumped by more than 50% every time. It's even more unusual to see the VIX this compressed during July-August.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 30/07/2025

Volatility is ebbing fast. Watching how much the VIX moves lets us know how comfortable traders are with their beliefs.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 29/07/2025

🔗Read our Senior Analyst Dean Christians's article Jul 25 "Bullish clue hidden in cyclical stocks": users.sentimentrader.com/users/modele...

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 29/07/2025

For the first time following a six-month low, the percentage of stocks recording a 52-week high for members in the consumer discretionary, financial, industrial, and technology sectors simultaneously exceeded 10%.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 29/07/2025

Amid the fanfare surrounding the S&P 500's 12th record high in 2025, a more consequential signal emerged beneath the surface, one that has often preceded exceptional returns for the world's most benchmarked index.

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SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 28/07/2025

🔗Read our Senior Analyst Dean Christians's Jul 24 article "Bulls get more support from global momentum": users.sentimentrader.com/users/modele...

SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 28/07/2025

As illustrated in the chart below, when nearly all international equity markets display bullish momentum, the MSCI World Index has delivered an impressive 16.9% annualized return.

SentimenTrader @sentimentrader.bsky.social · 28/07/2025

The case for a sustained rally in stocks got an additional boost when over 80% of country indexes displayed a positive 252-day rate-of-change, the first such occurrence in more than a year.