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Security Dilemmas @securitydilemmas.bsky.social · 2h

Just realized that this year is the 40th anniversary of the publication of Tom Clancy's novel Red Storm Rising. It was kind of a formative book for national security nerds like me in much the same way that the novel Neuromancer was for cyber people.

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Security Dilemmas @securitydilemmas.bsky.social · 3h

Right, but presumably the Soviets would have preferred to deploy their SSBNs as close to the U.S. coast as possible for a first strike in order to reduce warning time. If they traversed the G-I-UK gap in large numbers, I suspect that would have been detected.

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Security Dilemmas @securitydilemmas.bsky.social · 8h

Absolutely fascinating, I've often wondered about this sort of scenario. One question I have is if the USSR was putting more SSBNs to sea, and if Soviet SSBNs were deploying closer to U.S. coastlines than usual, would the U.S. have been able to detect it?

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Security Dilemmas @securitydilemmas.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Let's not forget the Peacekeeper ICBM, which had ten highly accurate, 300 kt warheads. Nothing says peace like a first strike capability.

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🇵🇸Martin “Doomsday” Pfeiffer🖖🏳️‍🌈 @nuclearanthro.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

To give as a gift I went to retrieve a Bert the Turtle Plush from my strategic stockpile and to my great astonishment and worry it was the last one! I have stringent* access security for stockpile so looks like this one is on me. I have ordered [REDACTED] more. *a box in closet b/c there's space

shop.americasnationalparks.org

Bert The Turtle Plush

''Duck and Cover'' is a civil defense social guidance film produced for the Federal Civil Defense Administration and widely distributed to schools during the 1950s all the way to 1991 and the end of t...

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Security Dilemmas @securitydilemmas.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Mike Huckabee is another textbook example of that.

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Security Dilemmas @securitydilemmas.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

I count 32 if you don't count the drones.

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Security Dilemmas @securitydilemmas.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

I agree that you can usefully draw attention to an overlooked topic without being an expert (The Day After is a good example), but you still have a responsibility to get things right. Nuclear War: A Scenario misstates basic facts and concepts, and it's not a work of journalism.

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Security Dilemmas @securitydilemmas.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Ugh, I hadn't heard that that was in there. It's so frustrating when people just assume that if someone who writes a book about a topic, they must be an expert on it.

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Security Dilemmas @securitydilemmas.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

I was disappointed to see that the PBS Newshour had Annie Jacobsen on last night to talk about the Russian lab tech's death from pneumonic plague. After reading her book Nuclear War: A Scenario, I'm very skeptical that she has any real expertise on biological weapons.

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Robinson Meyer @robinsonmeyer.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

major democracies electing far-right populist governments

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Security Dilemmas @securitydilemmas.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

The main problem with this article is right there in the title: The author thinks of nuclear war in terms of victory and defeat. He makes no mention of Ronald Reagan's observation that a nuclear war can never be won and must never be fought.

usni.org

How to Lose a Thermonuclear War

As China emerges as a second nuclear-armed peer, the United States risks losing the ability to deter its pacing threat.

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Nicholas Grossman @nicholasgrossman.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Putin apologists of the right (eg Tucker Carlson) and left (eg Noam Chomsky) got what they wanted: a U.S. government that treats the war as not Russia’s fault, cuts military support for Ukraine, and pressures Ukraine to give up land in exchange for the Kremlin’s word. It has not resulted in peace.

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Security Dilemmas @securitydilemmas.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

He is the definition of a blowhard. But I have this nagging fear that at some point he is going to snap and try to "restore" his credibility by doing something that's extreme, even for him. Like use a nuclear weapon.

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Maria Popova @popovaprof.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

The deepest, most serious mistake of the IR field is the concept of « Russia’s legitimate security concerns ». They don’t exist. Never have. Russia has not been threatened even vaguely in its entire post-1991 existence.

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Marcel Dirsus @marceldirsus.com · 20/09/2026

My friend Micah Reddy, a journalist with dual South African and British nationality, has gone missing while working on a story in Djibouti. If you know anyone in Djibouti who might be able to help, please get in touch. If not, please share this post so more people find out about Micah. It's urgent.

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Security Dilemmas @securitydilemmas.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Asking someone for non-anecdotal evidence seeks like a perfectly legitimate question to me.

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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

Today in 1980 at about 3:00 AM, the highly-volatile liquid fuel of a nuclear-armed Titan II ICBM exploded inside underground launch complex 374-7, 3.3 miles north-northeast of Damascus, Arkansas, and approximately 50 miles north of the capital of Little Rock, destroying the missile and silo.

A dramatic black and white photograph looking up from the bottom of a Titan II silo at the missile. Two airman in white coveralls and hard hats are standing at the base of the missile and talking, one of them touching the missile with his right hand.

The front page of the September 20, 1980, edition of the Arkansas Gazette featuring the banner two-deck headline, "Titan Nuclear Missile Silo Explodes Near Damascus; 1 Dies, 21 Injured," followed by the sub-headline, "Fireball Lights Up Night Sky; 1,400 in Area Removed." Beneath the headline is a large black and white photograph of the smoldering remains of the silo.

An undated article in an unidentified newspaper topped by a large headline: "BLAST RIPS MISSILE SILO; 22 injured, but H-warhead at Ark. site remains intact." A black and white photograph shows an injured Air Force man being taken into the emergency room at a hospital in Conway, Arkansas. A small map shows the location of the Titan II silo relative to Damascus and Little Rock.

A low-level aerial color photograph of the remains of launch complex 374-7 in the aftermath of the huge explosion. The massive reinforced silo door is gone and debris is strewn around the area.

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Nicholas Grossman @nicholasgrossman.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

The US already got a do over. A mulligan. A second chance. Much of the world, especially US allies, were ready to write off Trump’s first term as a fluke. The American people’s choice to put him back in power—as a convicted felon, after an openly bigoted, anti-democracy campaign—showed it was not.

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Pete Buttigieg @petebuttigieg.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: Not every “Secretary Pete” is the same.

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Michael McFaul @mcfaulmike.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

I'm confused by Trump's position on the AI race with China. He proclaimed with great gusto yesterday that we will not "slow down" because we need to beat China. But he also supports selling more sophisticated chips to China that help them accelerate their AI capabilities. I don't get it.

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Security Dilemmas @securitydilemmas.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

The Trump administration has alternated between denying that the U.S. is running low on advanced munitions and blaming the problem on the Biden administration. But if U.S. weapons stocks were already low when Trump returned to office, maybe starting an unncessary war with Iran was . . . unwise?

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Security Dilemmas @securitydilemmas.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

From today's CBO report about the cost of the war with Iran.

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Security Dilemmas @securitydilemmas.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

If the courts don't allow Trump's name to be added to the building, I think he should resign in protest.

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Security Dilemmas @securitydilemmas.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

The aircraft in this photo is an F-35B, which the Air Force does not operate.

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Anne Applebaum @anneapplebaum.wsocial.eu · 14/09/2026

Your regular reminder: If the Russians stop fighting, the war ends. If the Ukrainians stop fighting, their land will be occupied, their leaders will be killed, their history and language will be erased, their children will be kidnapped to serve Russia.

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Security Dilemmas @securitydilemmas.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

"Prospects for passing substantive legislation in the near term appear remote, in part because many see the issue as a 'prisoner’s dilemma' created by the A.I. race between the United States and China."

nytimes.com

As Fears of A.I. Catastrophe Magnify, Washington Stirs, but Mostly Slumbers

President Trump has been at the forefront of the “what-me-worry?” crowd, refusing to engage on how to balance the risks and rewards of A.I.

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Ambassador Ken Fairfax (ret) @portlandken.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

On the 25th anniversary of 9/11, Trump and Hegseth tried to gaslight Americans into believing that their war-of-choice on Iran was somehow related to 9/11. There is zero connection. Iran was not behind 9/11. The Iran war is based on a series of lies and blunders.

theguardian.com

Trump and Hegseth use 9/11 memorial remarks at Pentagon to defend war on Iran

President and defense secretary try to link worst terrorist attack in US history to current unpopular war

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Security Dilemmas @securitydilemmas.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Despite those things, I’d have never imagined that my country would go on to twice elect a president who lacks anything resembling a moral compass, who actively fosters bigotry toward many of his fellow Americans, and who’s gone out of his way to alienate our many allies who supported us after 9/11.

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Security Dilemmas @securitydilemmas.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

The unity was temporary, as it necessarily would be, and global sympathy for the U.S. ebbed due to the Bush administration’s employment of torture and its decision to invade Iraq.

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Security Dilemmas @securitydilemmas.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

We had the sympathy of most of the world. After the attacks, 200,000 Germans gathered at the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin to express solidarity with the American people. 60,000 Iranians who gathered for a soccer match in Tehran two days after the attacks observed a moment of silence.

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Security Dilemmas @securitydilemmas.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Bush: “America counts millions of Muslims amongst our citizens, and Muslims make an incredibly valuable contribution to our country . . . They need to be treated with respect. In our anger and emotion, our fellow Americans must treat each other with respect.”

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Security Dilemmas @securitydilemmas.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

As terrible as that day was, the weeks and months after felt, to me, like a hopeful time. The nation was unified, and President Bush, who was not of my party, publicly emphasized that Islam was a religion of peace.

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Security Dilemmas @securitydilemmas.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

I don’t know exactly what time it was when I and my coworkers evacuated our building, nor do I know when exactly Flight 93 would have reached the Capitol had the passengers not revolted. They may have saved my life, but I don’t for sure.

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Security Dilemmas @securitydilemmas.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

I’ve often wondered about how the heroism of the passengers on Flight 93 affected me personally. It crashed in Shanksville at 10:02 AM. It’s believed that the hijackers’ target was the U.S. Capitol. My office building was one block away.

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Security Dilemmas @securitydilemmas.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

At work, I had many phone conversations with my boss’s constituents in the ensuing weeks and months; the issues under my purview included foreign policy and national security. Many constituents offered their encouragement and told me to “stay safe,” especially after the subsequent anthrax attacks.

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Security Dilemmas @securitydilemmas.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

On my way to the Cleveland Park Metro, I walked by the neighborhood fire station, just as I did every weekday. I noticed a couple of firemen in the station garage and wondered what the previous day had been like for them.

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Security Dilemmas @securitydilemmas.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

My 30-minute commute to work the next morning was simply unreal. I don’t know how else to describe it. On the sidewalks and on the Metro, the impact of the previous day’s shared experience was palpably evident in the words and body language of my fellow Washingtonians.

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Security Dilemmas @securitydilemmas.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

We sat outside and hung out for a few of hours. Of course we discussed what had happened, but there were moments when the conversation migrated to other topics. Then we went inside and watched President Bush’s speech to the nation from the Oval Office. Then everyone went home.

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Security Dilemmas @securitydilemmas.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

By early evening, my friends and coworkers and I were experiencing a bit of cabin fever after spending most of the day watching the grim news on TV. Then we did something that might be hard for someone who wasn’t there to understand: We went to a bar. Zoo Bar, across from the National Zoo.

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Security Dilemmas @securitydilemmas.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

I was a frequent patron of the 7-11, as it was just two blocks from my house, and I knew that most the employees there were immigrants of color. I remember privately lamenting the hostility and discrimination that might be directed at them in the aftermath of what had happened.

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Security Dilemmas @securitydilemmas.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Connecticut Ave., a normally busy artery which had been the scene of a massive traffic jam just a short while earlier, was completely deserted. To say that Cleveland Park resembled a ghost town simply does not adequately convey the almost complete lack of any human activity.

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