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jumping back to summaries from hourly reporting and estimates including distributed supply, curtailment, and costing, the average rate to last year is similar. No rate class (A or B and exporters) should be much changed from Sept. 2025. 4/4

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appending a previous monthly generator output data set... record levels of fossil fuels on the IESO (for Sept.) ... and this in the month before 2+ GWe of nuclear capacity disappeared (Pickering) 3/4

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Estimating the composition of exported supply shows record levels (for Sept.) going back to the beginning of my hourly data set in 2008. Whereas surplus based/trivial-emission supply, and Quebec wheel-through trade, dominated 2014-2022, recent exports are mostly gas 2/4

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

first look/estimates of ON monthly electricity for September. IESO-controlled grid (ICG): increased output from hydro and wind offset demand growth, but gas still jumps to allow for increase in net exports Market rate essentially unchanged ... 1/4

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Today the final reactor at Pickering NGS is pulled from service pending refurbishment. Unit 6 deserves the honour as it is the champ of the site, having produced over 153 TWh, an equivalent of full Reference unit output for over 297,000 hours (~34 years). cheers to chapter 1

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

This morning Pickering NGS unit 8 was removed from service - pending a multi-year refurbishment. EFPH ~272,000 Like unit 7 (removed yesterday), unit 8's highest output year was 2025 -both's last full year of service. Only Bruce B's reactors performed more hours pre-refurb

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Last week it was unit 5: today we say "so long - for now", to reactor #7 at the Pickering NGS. I estimate the same 289,000 EFPH for both reactors - pre-refurb. image is taken from the final report of Ontario Hydro - showing the devaluation of the units entering restructuring.

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

My weekly ON electricity reporting. highest $/MWh since May, on highest wind+solar supply since May, and increased nuclear. ON demand down 200 GWh; more than cancelled out by net exports up 300 GWh. rare down week for gas - most of which ran for export (QC main intertie)

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Ontario released its 2025-26 Public Accounts. I've tracked the claimed subsidies for electricity from past reports - and it's a record $6.9 billion. Some will point to that as a significant share of the $13B deficit. with sector asset Δ, I calculate a net sector subsidy <$1B

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finally... from 2021 to 2025 ON's net exports to Quebec increased over 13 TWh (ie. more than nuclear will drop without Pickering - if OPG gets better with DNGS). no panic We could see impacts of reduced capacity at peaks, and in higher pricing throughout the northeast region 4/4

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Pickering’s nuclear plant unplugs next week. Here’s what that means| The Narwhal

I'll also note we've been exporting greater than nuclear is likely to drop next year, when natural gas is on the margin -meaning instead of exporting US gas into ON to generate power to export to the US, they'll just run a gas or coal generator there. thenarwhal.ca/ontari... 3/4

thenarwhal.ca

One of Ontario’s major nuclear plants shuts down for refurbishments next week. That means the province will burn more natural gas for power

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most years PNGS produced around 16 TWh, so the net nuclear loss might be ~10 TWh - if OPG's pathetic streak this year at Darlington gets resolved. The past few years have seen ON's net exports around 18 TWh. This is not going to be an energy problem. capacity maybe... 2/4

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Good article from Fatima Syed on the pending closure (for refurbishment) of Pickering, but I don't think it gets the import/export story quite right. firstly, there will generally be one less large 9800+ MW) reactor offline for refurbishment, so loss is ~1300 MW 1/4

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NWT Premier: "With new generation opportunities close to the NWT's southern border currently being examined, we need to understand what that could mean for us and how we can benefit." Possible we see Yukon on the western interconnection and NWT on Eastern. www.saskatchewan.ca/...

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Reposted by Scott Luft

Alfred Twu @alfredtwu.com · 14/09/2026

Do you ever think about how San Francisco basically went through an economic miracle, with multiple years of double-digit growth, and about the only thing they have to show for it is a world-famous housing crisis? Data from fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPAL...

Chart labeled Economy of San Francisco, showing rapid growth from 2011 to 2024. On the right is a chart showing the GDP per year in billions, and percentage change.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPALL06075

Year Billion % Change
2001 $70
2002 $68 -3.5%
2003 $68 0.8%
2004 $70 2.0%
2005 $76 8.7%
2006 $81 7.5%
2007 $87 6.3%
2008 $88 1.1%
2009 $88 0.3%
2010 $92 4.6%
2011 $100 8.6%
2012 $112 11.8%
2013 $119 6.7%
2014 $131 10.3%
2015 $144 9.7%
2016 $157 9.2%
2017 $173 10.0%
2018 $189 9.4%
2019 $207 9.6%
2020 $215 3.7%
2021 $250 16.4%
2022 $246 -1.8%
2023 $259 5.3%
2024 $268 3.7%

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

The past week in ON electricity (my estimates): big weeks for hydro and wind didn't stop the growth fueled by natural gas as OPG continued to depress nuclear output, demand remained high(ish), and exports surged.

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Reposted by Scott Luft

Altmetric @altmetric.com · 08/09/2026

Update: The academic flight from Twitter is now complete and appears permanent. April 2023, after the pandemic research surge, we recorded 2,234,307 posts sharing research on Twitter. As of April this year, "X" had 896,741 posts about research. That's a 60% drop in traffic.

Graph showing cumulative research sharing across platforms, including Twitter - April 2023

Graph of April 2026 cumulative research sharing including "X". One third of what it was.

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Reposted by Scott Luft

Janne M. Korhonen @jmkorhonen.fi · 08/09/2026

I have a sinking feeling

A chart of falling PISA test scores in all OECD-23 countries, with a line showing "Smartphone invented" set in 2007 - just before the results started their universal slide. Chart from The Economist.

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

natural gas fueled a record monthly amount of generation in August. My estimate should be ~$100 million too high for gas - but the IESO has been finding ways to avoid ratepayers benefiting from the combination of higher DA-OZP and clawbacks on NRR contracts 2/2

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

Ontario electricity August 2026 -estimates: Demand up ~1.8%, but over 1/3rd of that could be manufactured by increased use of storage - not actual consumption. little change to Aug'25 in export and market rates. trivial emission down (nuke, wind, solar, hydro) gas up and... 1/2

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

IESO August global adjustment estimates: $475.8 million $48.99/MWh note: I did forget to subtract the $245.54 M for the "comprehensive electricity plan payments", so we're actually relatively close on that estimate. disappointingly - as gas costs should be far below what I have in my estimate

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

My August global adjustment estimates: $730 million $42/MWh (class B) [assumes the IESO will again remove any benefit of market price exceeding marginal cost of gas supply to benefit whomever they wish instead of ratepayers - as last month]

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

My hunch: people have decided ratepayers don't deserve the cash back (despite having paid net revenue requirements on the plants for 10-20 years) - but special interests and bureaucracy bloaters deserve to feast. 2/2

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

IESO breakdown of global adjustment costs updated with July. ~$20M < my estimates 1. OPG +$30M 2. Bruce +$40M 3. Conservation +$11M 4. Non-Hydro Renewables Funding: +$11M 5. Other (incl. storage) +$10M Gas -$136M (this approximates how much above fuel cost DAOZP recovered) 1/2

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

Good news for Ontario nuclear supporters: the CNSC has agree to a ~3% increase in Bruce Power's reactors. This will likely increase capacity at the site by ~200 MW, about half the increase needed to get to the 7 GWe Bruce is working to achieve

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

The jig is up... Buddy can't dance

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

ON electricity weekly notes: another week of declining trivial-emission generation (comp to ly), on higher demand and pricing.

Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

My new Substack post: coldair.substack.com... maybe take the day off work to devour it :) or maybe a couple of days 2/2

coldair.substack.com

Ontario Power Generation needs a reckoning

Three of OPG’s four refurbished nuclear reactors are currently inoperable

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

Ontario Power Generation needs a reckoning Three of OPG’s four refurbished nuclear reactors are currently inoperable refurbed reactor teething pains, or far deeper problems? -reliability concerns -comms absent -OEB rate-setting absurdity -gov't financial shenanigans 1/2

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

trends in ON electricity pricing. Another graphic inspired by the increasingly -lengthy, perhaps unplanned, reactor outages at Darlington. Ontario announcement of the refurbishment early in 2026 claimed post-refurbishment cost of $72-$81/MWh (not based on 1 of 4 units operating)

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 15/08/2026

Here's why I am triggered by the poor performance at Darlington NGS this year: publicly-owned nuclear power in Ontario has been in the situation where prices were rising as performance was deteriorating. The combination is not sustainable - maybe not even for 1 election cycle

Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

Since a March 12th refurb completion Darlington NGS has had all 4 units producing power for only 18 days. Unit 4, the final unit to return from the lengthy life-extension, has operated on only half of the days since its ahead-of-schedule and under-budget celebration.

Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

OPG released their 2026 Q2 financial results today. Capital expenditures on nuclear projects year-to-date approach $2.5 billion. For that spending one might assume more than 1 of 4 refurbished reactors at Darlington to be operating this August. Nope :(

Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

My ON electricity reporting/estimates for week 32: natural gas fueled supply rises again, despite a down-demand week. All trivial-emission types saw lower output, with the exception of biomass - nuclear led the way down (on OPG's unplanned outages). app.powerbi.com/view...

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 09/08/2026

I updated my reporting for the AESO (Alberta) system through July. One quick graphic is the share of supply with the "value factor" (gen type avg pool price value:avg for all gen types) through 7 months avg MWh from wind dropped below 1/2 the overall avg.

Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

New post: On terrific new visualizations for electricity generation (and transmission) globally - and base data issues glossed over in the presentations. open.substack.com/pu...

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because, "the Ontario IESO approved an additional $300 million in funding to advance Bruce C impact assessment and pre-development work" (TC Energy 2026 Q2 report). You guys... stop ripping ratepayers off. hit your numbers, or admit you didn't don't take 2 for giving 1. 5/5

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I've seen anti-nuke kooks grumbling about Bruce proving their recently completed unit 3 refurbishment was completed under-budget, which drew a response from Bruce Power that it not only was, but Ontario ratepayers would see $150 million is savings from it. But we won't... 4/5

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That same BoC calculator shows the 79.69 $2015CDN Bruce shows for last year in their "transparency" reporting as $103, but in TC Energy's financial reporting as $109/MWh some things are expected to vary, and it's my understanding one of those is uranium costs. But... 3/5

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Bruce Power has a nice, responsible, page on their website showing a "projected" price of $79.33 (2015$). using the Bank of Canada's inflation calculator that equates to $105.40 in today's $'s. Q2 YTD TC Energy reporting show $117 for the latest quarter no biggie... 2/5

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TC Energy reported today, and scanning the results for Bruce Power I'm feeling they're joining OPG in damaging the pro-nuclear story - and I ought to have noticed how earlier than this. Hoping for some pushback to put me in my place on this thread... 1/5

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The government would do well to simply freeze the rate where it is and turn the attention of any productive people to the actually rising industrial (class A) commodity rate. in my opinion... 6/6

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Unnecessary because the government just adjusts the on-bill subsidy of consumers to hold increases to their inflation target. the only impact of the RPP is on the size of the subsidy. Those involved in the roller-coaster of the past 5 years don't deserve to be involved again 5/6

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the data ought to inspire the OEB and the IESO to plan improvements in their ability to set RPP rates - and even more important for the government to address the rot at those organizations if they haven't planned any improvements to their totally unnecessary process. 4/6

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Increasing electricity rates eliminating Ontario’s Clean Energy Advantage

up 3% for the 6 months of the period in 2026, and pricing was down nearly 10% in the final 2 months of 2025. 2/3rds of the way into this RPP period it has unfolded as I expected: coldair.substack.com... 3/6

coldair.substack.com

OEB hits out at electricity consumers with a 29% rate hike

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That RPP change was set in Oct. Since 2021 the RPP has changed 3%, but it did so by getting dropped 16% in year 1, dropped another 10% in year 2, raised 19% in year 3, dropped 11% in year 4, and then the much-publicized and generally stupidly cited 29% hike last fall. so... 2/6

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