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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

I updated data through Sept. for my AB reporting/estimates. this graphic shows the share of generation against a value factor (avg. pool price for type: avg. all pool price) iirc, Notley gov't policy aimed for 30% renewables by 2030 - but not likely a value less than 2 cents/kWh

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Suddenly, days after Pickering's reactors exited service, Ontario's electricity system operator is worried about capacity this winter. so... out-of-market capacity contract with US generator (whose nearest facility is a big oil-burner in Oswego).

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

first look/estimates of ON monthly electricity for September. IESO-controlled grid (ICG): increased output from hydro and wind offset demand growth, but gas still jumps to allow for increase in net exports Market rate essentially unchanged ... 1/4

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Today the final reactor at Pickering NGS is pulled from service pending refurbishment. Unit 6 deserves the honour as it is the champ of the site, having produced over 153 TWh, an equivalent of full Reference unit output for over 297,000 hours (~34 years). cheers to chapter 1

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

This morning Pickering NGS unit 8 was removed from service - pending a multi-year refurbishment. EFPH ~272,000 Like unit 7 (removed yesterday), unit 8's highest output year was 2025 -both's last full year of service. Only Bruce B's reactors performed more hours pre-refurb

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Last week it was unit 5: today we say "so long - for now", to reactor #7 at the Pickering NGS. I estimate the same 289,000 EFPH for both reactors - pre-refurb. image is taken from the final report of Ontario Hydro - showing the devaluation of the units entering restructuring.

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

My weekly ON electricity reporting. highest $/MWh since May, on highest wind+solar supply since May, and increased nuclear. ON demand down 200 GWh; more than cancelled out by net exports up 300 GWh. rare down week for gas - most of which ran for export (QC main intertie)

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Ontario released its 2025-26 Public Accounts. I've tracked the claimed subsidies for electricity from past reports - and it's a record $6.9 billion. Some will point to that as a significant share of the $13B deficit. with sector asset Δ, I calculate a net sector subsidy <$1B

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Good article from Fatima Syed on the pending closure (for refurbishment) of Pickering, but I don't think it gets the import/export story quite right. firstly, there will generally be one less large 9800+ MW) reactor offline for refurbishment, so loss is ~1300 MW 1/4

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

NWT Premier: "With new generation opportunities close to the NWT's southern border currently being examined, we need to understand what that could mean for us and how we can benefit." Possible we see Yukon on the western interconnection and NWT on Eastern. www.saskatchewan.ca/...

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Reposted by Scott Luft

Alfred Twu @alfredtwu.com · 14/09/2026

Do you ever think about how San Francisco basically went through an economic miracle, with multiple years of double-digit growth, and about the only thing they have to show for it is a world-famous housing crisis? Data from fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPAL...

Chart labeled Economy of San Francisco, showing rapid growth from 2011 to 2024. On the right is a chart showing the GDP per year in billions, and percentage change.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPALL06075

Year Billion % Change
2001 $70
2002 $68 -3.5%
2003 $68 0.8%
2004 $70 2.0%
2005 $76 8.7%
2006 $81 7.5%
2007 $87 6.3%
2008 $88 1.1%
2009 $88 0.3%
2010 $92 4.6%
2011 $100 8.6%
2012 $112 11.8%
2013 $119 6.7%
2014 $131 10.3%
2015 $144 9.7%
2016 $157 9.2%
2017 $173 10.0%
2018 $189 9.4%
2019 $207 9.6%
2020 $215 3.7%
2021 $250 16.4%
2022 $246 -1.8%
2023 $259 5.3%
2024 $268 3.7%

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

The past week in ON electricity (my estimates): big weeks for hydro and wind didn't stop the growth fueled by natural gas as OPG continued to depress nuclear output, demand remained high(ish), and exports surged.

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Reposted by Scott Luft

Altmetric @altmetric.com · 08/09/2026

Update: The academic flight from Twitter is now complete and appears permanent. April 2023, after the pandemic research surge, we recorded 2,234,307 posts sharing research on Twitter. As of April this year, "X" had 896,741 posts about research. That's a 60% drop in traffic.

Graph showing cumulative research sharing across platforms, including Twitter - April 2023

Graph of April 2026 cumulative research sharing including "X". One third of what it was.

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Reposted by Scott Luft

Janne M. Korhonen @jmkorhonen.fi · 08/09/2026

I have a sinking feeling

A chart of falling PISA test scores in all OECD-23 countries, with a line showing "Smartphone invented" set in 2007 - just before the results started their universal slide. Chart from The Economist.

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

Ontario electricity August 2026 -estimates: Demand up ~1.8%, but over 1/3rd of that could be manufactured by increased use of storage - not actual consumption. little change to Aug'25 in export and market rates. trivial emission down (nuke, wind, solar, hydro) gas up and... 1/2

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

My August global adjustment estimates: $730 million $42/MWh (class B) [assumes the IESO will again remove any benefit of market price exceeding marginal cost of gas supply to benefit whomever they wish instead of ratepayers - as last month]

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

IESO breakdown of global adjustment costs updated with July. ~$20M < my estimates 1. OPG +$30M 2. Bruce +$40M 3. Conservation +$11M 4. Non-Hydro Renewables Funding: +$11M 5. Other (incl. storage) +$10M Gas -$136M (this approximates how much above fuel cost DAOZP recovered) 1/2

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

Good news for Ontario nuclear supporters: the CNSC has agree to a ~3% increase in Bruce Power's reactors. This will likely increase capacity at the site by ~200 MW, about half the increase needed to get to the 7 GWe Bruce is working to achieve

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

The jig is up... Buddy can't dance

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

ON electricity weekly notes: another week of declining trivial-emission generation (comp to ly), on higher demand and pricing.

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

Ontario Power Generation needs a reckoning Three of OPG’s four refurbished nuclear reactors are currently inoperable refurbed reactor teething pains, or far deeper problems? -reliability concerns -comms absent -OEB rate-setting absurdity -gov't financial shenanigans 1/2

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

trends in ON electricity pricing. Another graphic inspired by the increasingly -lengthy, perhaps unplanned, reactor outages at Darlington. Ontario announcement of the refurbishment early in 2026 claimed post-refurbishment cost of $72-$81/MWh (not based on 1 of 4 units operating)

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 15/08/2026

Here's why I am triggered by the poor performance at Darlington NGS this year: publicly-owned nuclear power in Ontario has been in the situation where prices were rising as performance was deteriorating. The combination is not sustainable - maybe not even for 1 election cycle

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

Since a March 12th refurb completion Darlington NGS has had all 4 units producing power for only 18 days. Unit 4, the final unit to return from the lengthy life-extension, has operated on only half of the days since its ahead-of-schedule and under-budget celebration.

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

OPG released their 2026 Q2 financial results today. Capital expenditures on nuclear projects year-to-date approach $2.5 billion. For that spending one might assume more than 1 of 4 refurbished reactors at Darlington to be operating this August. Nope :(

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

My ON electricity reporting/estimates for week 32: natural gas fueled supply rises again, despite a down-demand week. All trivial-emission types saw lower output, with the exception of biomass - nuclear led the way down (on OPG's unplanned outages). app.powerbi.com/view...

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 09/08/2026

I updated my reporting for the AESO (Alberta) system through July. One quick graphic is the share of supply with the "value factor" (gen type avg pool price value:avg for all gen types) through 7 months avg MWh from wind dropped below 1/2 the overall avg.

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

New post: On terrific new visualizations for electricity generation (and transmission) globally - and base data issues glossed over in the presentations. open.substack.com/pu...

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 30/07/2026

TC Energy reported today, and scanning the results for Bruce Power I'm feeling they're joining OPG in damaging the pro-nuclear story - and I ought to have noticed how earlier than this. Hoping for some pushback to put me in my place on this thread... 1/5

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

Ontario's electricity system operator released the June global adjustment (GA) figures, so a half year pricing review. The changes to commodity rates (GA plus relevant market average): Class A: +13% increase Class B: +2% increase Regulated Price Plan (RPP): +29% 1/6

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 14/07/2026

At the moment the electricity system operator is forecasting the 5 highest Ontario demand hours in its history for later today. Currently I am skeptical we'll have one hour get into the top 10, but right now I'm cool :) ...good luck with the heat everybody.

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 10/07/2026

Canadian renewables' lobby claims that being forced to bear the risk of their inability to deliver output sold in Ontario's day-ahead market will render new projects "unfinanceable." they seem to argue that is a bad thing.

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 06/07/2026

The past week in Ontario electricity is worth a couple of comments. Heat drove up demand, and supply from burning gas produced supplied the equivalent of that increase, while higher nuclear output and higher net exports offset each other. High market prizing (DA-OZP) 1/2

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 25/06/2026

Ontario’s proposed nuclear expansion is attacked as an expensive mistake in an Environmental Defence report published this week. I show the biggest shortcoming in the analysis done for it - and the value a better analysis could have delivered - in my new post 1/2

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 15/06/2026

On May 13th it was announced that the "clean" Champlain Hudson Power Express ® (CHPE) was fully operational. "Clean" for the past month if Hydro Quebec's alchemists altered electricity imports from Ontario, generated with natural gas (much of it from the US), into hydro power

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

OPG's Darlington unit 4 was taken offline this morning. 127 days after the gov't issued a news release on the completion of the station's refurbishment, the final unit in that process has operated only 51 days. I'm hoping for a bathtub curve, but OPG's rate application isn't

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 01/06/2026

A first-look review on Ontario electricity in May 2026 - including a record month for production from 1 supply type/fuel. the basic IESO GOC by fuel, and market rate reporting show demand up ~364 GWh with net exports down ~203. Less nuclear output meant more gas as... 1/5

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 23/05/2026

CNSC removed the 3rd hold point for Bruce 3 on Thursday, bringing the conclusion on its refurbishment closer. Unit 6 had the final hold point removed only 9 days after this, so expect a newly refurbished reactor back for the full summer.

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

I glanced at a report I occasionally run and was surprised to see natural gas approaching 5 GW of output on the Ontario grid this afternoon and then I checked my estimates of curtailment - and they're around 1 GW. Exports another 3GW. What's up with the IESO? 1/2

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Reposted by Scott Luft

Adam Radwanski @aradwanski.bsky.social · 14/05/2026

My main takeaway from Carney’s electricity strategy - which contains a small amount of news, a few vague hints of possible future policies, a laying out of familiar priorities, and many promises to now start consultations - is that this government has an acute case of strategy-itis.

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 14/05/2026

As the Globe just published a "Nuclear power means backing yesterday’s horse while sacrificing Canada’s future". written by a lesser Equidae, here's that one's forecast from a 2003 work graphed against realized nuclear output in Canada.

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

I updated the data design of my ON electricity supply tracking - had mapped, and provided summaries, of the IESO's contract listing, but now with OPG, NUGs still with OEFC, and a couple of sites likely operating as merchant plants app.powerbi.com/view...

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

A new procurement procurement program announced in Ontario promises lower pricing on re-contract hydro sites. Why are privately held legacy hydro stations getting cheaper while the public fleet gets far more expensive? coldair.substack.com...

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

I've updated my Canadian wind turbine data behind my Power BI reporting. There's 3 distinct wind data sets on different pages: this graphic is from the data set I first created years ago (and just updated) In this view I exclude AB and SK ... 1/4

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

Last week I wrote a piece re: new contracting of solar (mostly) and wind in Ontario. and then I thought of the needed graphic to demonstrate a price decline being cited for all renewables is simply a price decline for solar - at least in Ontario. 1/2

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

some thoughts on the energy contracts awarded by Ontario's electricity system operator yesterday - its first procurement of grid-scale solar, and wind, generators in over a decade. the avg rate of $88/MWh appears as a much different context for solar than wind 1/4

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 02/04/2026

Some preliminary data summaries of Q1 Ontario electricity's system - if only as a distraction from more immediately concerning things... from the basic IESO data set (using EPT).. demand (IESO) up 880 GWh (2.3%), but of that 117 GWh is double-counting with storage, so ~2% 1/7

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 30/03/2026

the IESO released components of the global adjustment (GA) for Feb. - an excuse for a thread for ON energy nerds re: the GA's composition, how I estimate the charges, and why the 2 differ fairly widely in recent months: price composition, and natural gas costs 1/8

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Scott Luft @scottluft.bsky.social · 28/03/2026

Light-hearted thoughts re: Ontario's electricity system's operation t distract from the far-more-awful things in the world. Recently I rebuilt a power BI report I had before the market changes of last May - hourly stats on the current day. In so doing I found surprises 1/4

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