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schneidermandm.bsky.social @schneidermandm.bsky.social · 20/03/2026

www.axios.com/2026/03/19/i... Pleased to be able to offer my thoughts to @axios.com @becfalconer.bsky.social about what the attacks on critical energy infrastructure by Iran and Israel mean and how they affect the war calculus of the parties - take a look👇

axios.com

Iran war may linger into May due to Israeli strike, analysts warn

Oil prices soared amid concerns there are "no immediate clear off-ramps" to the war's end, analyst said.

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schneidermandm.bsky.social @schneidermandm.bsky.social · 19/03/2026

apnews.com/article/iran... The BLUF is that expertise, staffing decisions, personnel decisions made hastily, and expertise ignored or not brought into the room has real consequences, especially at the nosebleed stakes of high level diplomacy. This war with Iran is one such example of that.

apnews.com

State Department cut jobs with deep expertise in Middle East as Iran crisis escalates

The widening war in Iran is exposing big gaps at the State Department, especially in the bureau that handles the Middle East.

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schneidermandm.bsky.social @schneidermandm.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

22/x As I said two wks ago, the parties to this war are now locked in a cycle of escalation & counter that will be hard to break because, war is (as I was taught a long time ago by @eliotacohen.bsky.social) politics by other means. I fear what's to come.

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schneidermandm.bsky.social @schneidermandm.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

21/x The ultimate outcome of this war is truly anyone's guess - its unprecedented and anyone who believes that they can predict with absolute certainty its outcome is wrong.

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schneidermandm.bsky.social @schneidermandm.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

20/x Given that the likelihood of complete success on either of these missions is so hard to achieve, they risk turning this war further towards a blunder for the U.S., should they be greenlit and fail.

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schneidermandm.bsky.social @schneidermandm.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

19/x It would also bring the kind of casualties (and coverage of those casualties) that would generate a potentially intense wave of domestic political backlash inside the U.S. which the Administration certainly wants to avoid.

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schneidermandm.bsky.social @schneidermandm.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

18/x Either Kharg or this would cross rubicons that the U.S. has heretofore avoided by definitively make this another Middle East land war in which the U.S. finds itself entangled (so far I am not aware that any U.S. ground forces will take part in the Lebanon ground op).

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schneidermandm.bsky.social @schneidermandm.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

17/x I'm sure there are ways to get these forces into the country and get them out that i'm not aware of, and the planners and operators at @uscentcom.bsky.social and in U.S. special operations are second to none at making these kinds of things seem possible.

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schneidermandm.bsky.social @schneidermandm.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

16/x Are they coming overland from a base in a regional country? I cannot imagine, even after everything that's happened in this war to date, any regional partner allowing U.S. forces to base from their territory (or overfly their airspace) for this kind of op.

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schneidermandm.bsky.social @schneidermandm.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

15/x Then there's the how of where these forces launch from. Are they coming off helicopters from ships in the Gulf? That would mean traversing the Strait and leaving them vulnerable to missiles, mines, and drones.

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schneidermandm.bsky.social @schneidermandm.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

14/x Without perfect information, this kind of certainty will be hard to come by. And Iran will secure and relocate any HEU these forces don't move on immediately. So, what happens if the U.S. forces miss a significant stockpile? Are U.S. forces coming back for more raids?

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schneidermandm.bsky.social @schneidermandm.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

13/x And then there's the question of whether the U.S. and Israel can account for all of the HEU with the kind of certainty and precise intelligence that would allow simultaneous raids to get it all out.

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schneidermandm.bsky.social @schneidermandm.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

12/x Finding the uranium and excavating it from sites that were bombed in 2025 will take time. That means time exposed. Constant air cover won't keep Iranian forces from throwing everything they have at this.

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schneidermandm.bsky.social @schneidermandm.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

11/x That ensures that any U.S. force that attempts to enter them will face a sustained firefight to get in, while executing the recovery mission, and to get out. Even w/air dominance, the ground fight will be so intense there will be significant casualties.

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schneidermandm.bsky.social @schneidermandm.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

10/x The number of challenges that come with this are, frankly, massive. These sites - many located in and around Tehran (including those that were struck by U.S. and Israeli forces in June 2025) - will be amongst the most heavily guarded targets remaining inside Iran.

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schneidermandm.bsky.social @schneidermandm.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

9/x Besides the Kharg Island decision point, the Times identifies the tension and internal debate within the Administration about what it would take to remove Iran's highly enriched uranium. If your eyes water thinking about the Kharg Island scenario, this will be worse.

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schneidermandm.bsky.social @schneidermandm.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

8/x The attacks on the port of Fujairah in the UAE - one of their principal export pts - which has for the moment rendered it inoperable for oil exports - is another example of the way the Iranians hope to use their remaining military advantages to drive favorable outcomes.

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schneidermandm.bsky.social @schneidermandm.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

7/x Despite claims to the contrary, the Iranian military has not been rendered combat ineffective. It enjoys the strategic benefit of geography and missile and drone capabilities that are easy to move around and near impossible to completely take off the battlefield.

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schneidermandm.bsky.social @schneidermandm.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

6/x Even in a degraded state, Iran's military training and doctrine suggest that this is not only possible but likely. Look no further than the attacks on Abqaiq's oil fields in 2019 for evidence that Iran can execute complex attacks that cause precise, major damage.

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schneidermandm.bsky.social @schneidermandm.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

5/x However, it must be said that any lasting damage to Kharg's infrastructure would be a significant dent to Iran's long term ability to export oil. That will mean the attacks will have to be precise and targeted.

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schneidermandm.bsky.social @schneidermandm.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

4/x What's more, U.S. forces would be stuck on an island that's roughly the 1/3 the size of Manhattan. That makes them vulnerable to explosive drones and missile attacks. That's a recipe for significant U.S. casualties. t.co/q13rTJhIhX

t.co

https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/14/middleeast/iran-kharg-island-explainer-intl-hnk

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schneidermandm.bsky.social @schneidermandm.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

3/x Such a landing would be contested. What U.S. and Israeli air power has accomplished is impressive in terms of establishing complete freedom to conduct air sorties without fear of shootdown. Land and naval forces enjoy no such freedom of movement.

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schneidermandm.bsky.social @schneidermandm.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

2/x The situation is reaching ever further into the ladder of escalation. The idea that the U.S. is now seriously entertaining boots on the ground on Kharg Island - one of Iran's most impt pieces of oil kit (handles 90% of exports) - is eye watering.

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schneidermandm.bsky.social @schneidermandm.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

www.nytimes.com/2026/03/15/u... 1/x Vital reporting from David Sanger @julianbarnes.bsky.social Eric Schmitt @tylerpager.bsky.social Ronen Bergman @nytimes.com Let’s dive into a few key issues this article raises around what may happen next with the #Iran #Israel #US war.

nytimes.com

Entering War’s Third Week, Trump Faces Stark Choices

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schneidermandm.bsky.social @schneidermandm.bsky.social · 12/03/2026

This is a wild statistic when you consider the current operational state of the Oil industry in the region.

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schneidermandm.bsky.social @schneidermandm.bsky.social · 11/03/2026

As I have discussed repeatedly in the last few days, the risks to maritime operations - for tankers & mil traffic - from Iranian anti access and area denial capabilities is serious & tangible, even as the U.S. has seriously degraded certain parts of Iran’s military in the first 12 days of the war.

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schneidermandm.bsky.social @schneidermandm.bsky.social · 11/03/2026

www.nytimes.com/2026/03/11/u... The risks to civilians is always high during wars. Cases like these are all too common across conflicts, even from militaries that are meticulous in their approach to battle-space awareness and dynamic targeting.

nytimes.com

U.S. at Fault in Strike on School in Iran, Preliminary Inquiry Says

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schneidermandm.bsky.social @schneidermandm.bsky.social · 11/03/2026

This is a very real possibility. One of the myriad reasons the decision to go to war (even when just and valid) is as solemn and serious a choice as a President (or any leader) can make.

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schneidermandm.bsky.social @schneidermandm.bsky.social · 10/03/2026

If I had to guess (and that’s what I’m doing), there’s a set of energy and infrastructure targets - like Kharg Island infrastructure - that hasn’t been targeted yet.

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schneidermandm.bsky.social @schneidermandm.bsky.social · 10/03/2026

The messaging from the White House is changing hour by hour, as a set of very mixed signals about escalation to de escalate or the desire to get to an off ramp is delivered from the podium.

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schneidermandm.bsky.social @schneidermandm.bsky.social · 09/03/2026

That’s true, but the US and global economy are still so heavily reliant on them.

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schneidermandm.bsky.social @schneidermandm.bsky.social · 09/03/2026

Pretty clear they want to de escalate. The fuel price news on @cnbc.com clearly has focused minds, the President’s included.

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schneidermandm.bsky.social @schneidermandm.bsky.social · 08/03/2026

www.nytimes.com/2026/03/08/b... This is going to turn up the pressure on the The White House to end this war quickly. The Israeli strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure are certainly a part of what’s jumping prices up, in addition to the Force Majeure declarations and Straits being closed.

nytimes.com

Oil Prices Surge Above $100 a Barrel for the First Time in Almost Four Years

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schneidermandm.bsky.social @schneidermandm.bsky.social · 08/03/2026

3/x As I said earlier this week, this kind of decision by the UAE and others is a big deal. It has the potential to change the tactical development of the next phase of the war.

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schneidermandm.bsky.social @schneidermandm.bsky.social · 08/03/2026

2/x Having a land base to launch strikes or collection sorties would also relieve pressure on the carrier strike groups, which need time to re arm and re fit (as well as to rotate crews out).

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schneidermandm.bsky.social @schneidermandm.bsky.social · 08/03/2026

1/x I read MbZ’s statement tonight as declaration of intent to enter the war. How that manifests itself remains to be seen, but if the #UAE allows offensive operations from its territory that is a significant escalation (and would also offer the U.S. a land logistical resupply hub.)

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Reposted by @schneidermandm.bsky.social

Jonathan Lord @jonathanlorddc.bsky.social · 25/02/2025

For years, my friend and colleague @schneidermandm.bsky.social has shared great insights and analysis with me on MidEast policy. I’m thrilled we could finally make the relationship official- welcome to @cnas.bsky.social!

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schneidermandm.bsky.social @schneidermandm.bsky.social · 25/02/2025

A little news - excited to be able to help @cnas.bsky.social and my friend @jonathanlorddc.bsky.social think about and offer constructive thinking on the state the of the MENA region and where U.S. policy should be going as I work on my next professional steps.

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schneidermandm.bsky.social @schneidermandm.bsky.social · 17/11/2024

Getting this up and running so I can use it in the future. Stay tuned!

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