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Agnostic Pessimist @scandired.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

It seems like an overly charitable interpretation of intelligence agencies' priorities..

Agnostic Pessimist @scandired.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

Genuine question: How involved was the US in establishing ICC? To my cursory knowledge the US and ICC have seemed to have a slightly adversarial relationship, and I thought the US viewed it as a threat to their sovereignty.

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Agnostic Pessimist @scandired.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

I believe (other) green alternatives were already more cost effective than nuclear, and that's before the price of solar started going through the floor in the last few years

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Agnostic Pessimist @scandired.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

I have been a shooter, and you don't point your gun at something you're not willing to shoot. Desire to kill is not a factor. You can use a tazer, pepper spray, or run the person down with an acrylic shield, or a car. There are limitations and upsides with all of these options.

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Agnostic Pessimist @scandired.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

In my reference country, most police shots are fired at something like 2-3 meters distance. A lot of cops aren't as good marksmen as they perhaps should be, but adjusting the doctrine accordingly would bw like increasing the speed limit because everyone is driving too fast.

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Agnostic Pessimist @scandired.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

Of course it CAN kill them, these are not risk-free scenarios, but you know what (generally) WILL kill them? 6 rounds to the torso, which is what will happen if they decide to charge the cop.

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Agnostic Pessimist @scandired.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

Of course there's a risk, it's probably an armed confrontation to begin with, but there's LESS risk to the suspect than taking 6 rounds to the chest, which is what would happen if he decided to charge the cop.

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Agnostic Pessimist @scandired.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

It may shock you to learn that they'd also prefer not to kill anyone on the job if they can avoid it

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Agnostic Pessimist @scandired.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

1. The direction is not random. It'll ideally be at an angle into the ground. 2. A lot of these scenarios are standoffs with people armed with knives, you're not standing in Times Square during new year's eve. 3. If the warning shot is too dangerous to third parties, you won't do it.

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Agnostic Pessimist @scandired.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

A lot of these scenarios are standoffs , f.ex. with people armed with knives. You'll shoot them in the leg after they refuse to drop the knife and before they act to engage or run away. They're static situations at a few meter's range.

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Agnostic Pessimist @scandired.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

I see a lot of comments assuming cops will fire in some random direction if it's a warning shot. It might shock you to learn that they're instructed to consider this and fire into the field you're standing in the middle of and not into the nearest kindergarden.

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Agnostic Pessimist @scandired.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Well that's good to know. The last related issue I can recall statements on is 3D-printed firearms, but it's been peripheral for me.

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Agnostic Pessimist @scandired.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Specifically misanthropic networks like No Lives Matter that spring out of online communities are relatively new, and certainly not something most police departments have had much exposure to.

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Agnostic Pessimist @scandired.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

The term "prison hulk" comes to mind. Please noone remind them how many navy ships are sitting unused in storage.

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Agnostic Pessimist @scandired.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Maybe less surprising given that it'll be hard for authorities to understand the motivation and the scope of the problem if the root cause was Discord-brained memetic nihilism.

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Agnostic Pessimist @scandired.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Interestingly, the oldest greenland shark is believed to be around 400(!) years old. Don't know about his sexual orientation though.

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Agnostic Pessimist @scandired.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

That was the first thing that came to my mind as well. I believe Sweden had a similar incident this summer.

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Agnostic Pessimist @scandired.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

This feels like one additional thing that I think may have never been in scope for the brain-fried LLM CEOs fantasies about the future of IT/software.

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Agnostic Pessimist @scandired.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

I'm not confident that a lot of the major players have resisted the urge to jump on the AI hype train, and Microsoft has been known to roll out less-than-bulletproof software even prior to this (I appreciate the complexity of a lot of the Microsoft software suite, but that's not a valid defence IMO)

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Agnostic Pessimist @scandired.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

IIRC both a GSG9 unit as well as another police/military unit has previously been restructured/disbanded because of neonazi sympathies, so the calls are coming from insode as well as outside the house. European security, in the long term, is very much up in the air.

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Agnostic Pessimist @scandired.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Who would the couping faction in Riyadh be? An intra-dynasty palace coup I could see happening but MBS seems to have consolidated much more than previous rulers. I have a hard time imagining a military coup, for various reasons, but that's just my view.

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Agnostic Pessimist @scandired.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

A palace coup would be extremely on-brand, but that's the one risk MBS seems to have understood right off the bat.

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Agnostic Pessimist @scandired.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

In light of Iran & Trump 2, I wonder if the state will turn out to be stronger than might be assumed. Saudi is a big country with a big state, there's a lot of inertia, and I wouldn't assume MBS is reviled domestically. Plus being apolitical is strongly disincentivized.

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Agnostic Pessimist @scandired.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Supposedly very well funded but very poorly motivated/trained. Coup-proofing may be part of the root cause too, but I'm sure there's plenty of nepotism to go around. It might also not be a very prestigious/lucrative field to enter, IDK.

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Agnostic Pessimist @scandired.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

To the extent that the state has tolerated any ideology to flourish it'll probably be strands of wahhabism. Probably not a great basis for government. My impression is that political engagement is discouraged both through soft (bread & circus) and hard power.

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Agnostic Pessimist @scandired.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Whenever I see recipes like these I think it's funny it is that northern europeans self-identified as the epitome of civilzation for centuries.

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Agnostic Pessimist @scandired.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

The domestic repercussions of that kind of Saudi offensive going completely sideways could be equally severe. Rock and a hard place.

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Agnostic Pessimist @scandired.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

The Saudi armed forces are not known for being very capable, and Yemen is populous and extremely mountanous. I'm far from confident that Saudi could achieve its goals regardless of how many soldiers they deploy and little they restrain themselves, especially without UAE & mercenaries to contribute.

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Agnostic Pessimist @scandired.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Based on some of the Yemeni Land Cruiser YT shorts I've seen, roads almost seem kind of optional

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Agnostic Pessimist @scandired.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

I've got some terrible news for them about the political landscape of multiple NATO members...

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Agnostic Pessimist @scandired.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Wondering where even they are on the spectrum from 1948 CCP to Los Zetas. Sendero Luminoso seems to have solidly crossed that Rubicon.

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Agnostic Pessimist @scandired.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Whenever I see these sentiments I increasingly find myself thinking that 9/11 may turn out to have, or be seen to have, hugely defined the 21st century, in a way because the US (and it's European affiliates) have allowed it to. The GWOT butterfly effect is crazy.

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Agnostic Pessimist @scandired.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

If it's any consolation, even the foreign investment fund of supposedly progressive Norway is arguing for easing their guidelines so they can invest in lucrative shit like cutting edge orphan crushing technology, because their mandate is to Make Bank

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Agnostic Pessimist @scandired.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

I'm sure the parents of the Minab schoolgirls will find solace in knowing it was done to save the World Economy

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Agnostic Pessimist @scandired.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

They might understand computers (although we might even have passed that point with these people), but this understanding has come at the expense of understanding the world. I.e. no, they actually haven't thought about this. At least not in any way that's tied to reality.

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Agnostic Pessimist @scandired.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

I think @aphclarkson.bsky.social has talked about the need to understand terminally online edgelord brainrot culture in order to understand certain modern poltical movements. In the same way, you have to understand how the AI CEOs are brought in the insular Silicon Valley environment:

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Agnostic Pessimist @scandired.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

What's more american than dilapitated infrastructure draped in the flag, after all.

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Agnostic Pessimist @scandired.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

So Japan is also claiming the 'ole "pivot to India" thing, huh?

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Agnostic Pessimist @scandired.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

This is shrinking the tent even further w.r.t. who is deserving of protection under international law. [2/2]

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Agnostic Pessimist @scandired.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

I appreciate that some Europeans and North Americans don't care (although they should), but the difference in rhetoric between this conflict and every other recent conflict the US and/or Israel has been involved in has already cratered our credibility in the world [1/2]

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Agnostic Pessimist @scandired.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

The people who seem to want russians perpetrators lined up against a wall while asking for indifference for UA violations either don't understand justice systems, or don't want justice to be served in this context.

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Agnostic Pessimist @scandired.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

That's not a good argument for non-enforcement or indifference: If sexual violence is prevalent in a country, it does not follow that we should be indifferent to, or not investigate/prevent relatively less serious instances.

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Agnostic Pessimist @scandired.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Curious to see if Oman makes a statement on this, as I've got more faith in its statements than claims made elsewhere, and I don't think it will necessarily pull its punches in its response.

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Agnostic Pessimist @scandired.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Apparently Norwegian shipping companies made fucking bank during the Iran-Iraq war by doing dangerous runs that few other would, and blackmailing their crew into volunteering for those trips under threat of being blackballed.

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Agnostic Pessimist @scandired.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

There's a whiff of "preparing for the previous war" about this: something akin to Irans missile program seems cheaper politically and economically, more usable, requiring less specialized competence, and more resilient & decentralized. That's what Saudi should be looking at IMO.

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Agnostic Pessimist @scandired.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Between this, the Italian Typhoons reportedly already stationed in SE Saudi, and the similar UK commitment, it sounds like Europe is filling the gap left by the US. Very interesting to think of the long-term implications.

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Reposted by Agnostic Pessimist

Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Macron says France has agreed with Saudi Arabia to dispatch French “soldiers, radars, defensive systems” to protect the Yanbu oil terminal on the Saudi Red Sea coast, which was recently hit by Iran-allied groups. www.tf1info.fr/politique/cr...

tf1info.fr

Crise des carburants : Macron mobilise des "moyens militaires" pour "protéger" un site clé en Arabie saoudite | TF1 Info

[VIDÉO] Emmanuel Macron a annoncé, jeudi 24 septembre, l'envoi de "moyens militaires" pour "protéger" le site stratégique de Yanbu, en Arabie saoudite. Le chef de l'État a dit vouloir "protéger" ce ma...

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Reposted by Agnostic Pessimist

Simon B.-M. @simonbm.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

The far right in Europe and the US very much depends on people seeing the superiority of our civilisation over the formerly colonialised peoples as permanent rather than a product of particular factors. Its anti-educational and anti-science attitudes are also likely to hasten our relative decline.

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