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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 51m

Wati is now a hurricane equivelent cyclone according to the JTWC. This ironically coming as most automated fixes and even some subjective estimates are trending downwards. There are actually some atolls near its path and about 1/4 of 1000 FNV3 members make landfall on at least one

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 1h

Earlier today a suite of AMSR3 high-res MW images captured then regular Typhoon Champi as it neared its final approach to Guam. Note in particular the small size of the inner core and the intense returns in the eyewall both at 89 and 37 Ghz, glowing bright pink on the latter frequency.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 1h

Recon just made their first fix on Hurricane Trudy this evening. Finding max FL winds of 95 knots (*0.9 = 85.5 kts SFC by conventional rule of thumb) and dropsonde suggests the MSLP is 976 mbar. VDM mentions the eyewall is open to the southeast.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 2h

Super Typhoon Champi has now made its closest approach to Guam. Thankfully the core of the storm was quite compact and therefor the eyewall remained off-shore (even if it will probably go down as a direct hit, 2x RMW for locations right of track). Extreme wind warning has been allowed to expire.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 4h

The small eye of Typhoon Champi clearing again as it nears Guam. The outer concentric band now lashing Guam, the inner eyewall with its destructive winds is just 20 mi southeast of the southern tip of Guam. Recently a wobble to the south, now WNW motion. Direct hit for sure.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 5h

It will be interesting what hurricane hunters find in Trudy later. While certainly asymmetrical, convection looks quite healthy. MW images from Chinese and american satellites this morning indicated a healthy eyewall was present. Could speculate that it may have contracted some

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 6h

Not a pretty picture as Typhoon Champi bears down on Guam. The system strengthened all the way to 220 km/h (140 mph) before it seems like an eyewall replacement cycle started to take its tool. Right now it seems like it is aiming for Guam, lets hope that changes, wobbles'll be crucial.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 20h

JTWC just issued two very poor estimates. They pegged Champi at 85 knots, has to be at least 90 knots but more like 95-105 kts. They also put 01P as 40 knots, which I also disagree with, it is at the very least 45 knots, if not 50 knots rn based on available estimates.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 20h

Satellite imagery indicates that Trudy may be on the mend somewhat. The CDO has been becoming better defined, with more expansive banding and of course an eye-feature becoming appearent again. Of course the system still appears assymetrical but it is defo progress.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 21h

Note that conversions of 10m/2m estimates to SSHWS equivelants is based on dvorak T numbers. Under the assumption that typhoon comittee members that use 10 min sustained would use the Koba method and using the attached table. Using seperate a chart to convert CMA estimates to T#

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 21h

Looking at current agency forecasts, the latest JTWC forecast stops just short of Champi becoming a cat5 SSHWS (it prolly will). JMA thinks it will peak as a T6.5 at peak (so high-end cat4). CMA & CWA think it is gonna be a category 5 equivelant at peak. KMA also high-end C4.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 22h

First light visible imagery shows the eye of Typhoon Champi becoming increasingly well-defined. Automated estimates have trouble estimating the true intensity of Champi but one thing is for sure, it's not 75 kts anymore. Recent SAR was helpful in this regard. I'd say 100-105 kts.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 23h

Now that Simon has dissipated, I can announce that Trusty old HWRF has once again been the best single model for track. HMON also beat HAFS-A/B. HWRF was also a very good model for intensity. HAFSs again disappointing. HCCA of course reigns supreme especially on intensity.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 23h

01P has been finally named Watti by FMS. The system is developing nicely (as suggested by me earlier) and recently a formative eye has even appeared and banding is increasingly well-defined. JTWC now progs Watti to reach hurricane-force tomorrow, FMS progs a C2 on their scale.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 16/10/2026

This has thrown a wrench into the intensity forecast. Diagnostic guidance indicates as soon as Trudy gets back over warmer waters, she may be exposed to higher DLS. Dry air may also be an issue. NHC still tentatively progs some strengthening through hour 24-36 and weakening thereafter.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 16/10/2026

Anything apart from the first post in this chain is purely my speculation but I reckon that the ventilation of the system with dry air earlier in the day certainly would not have helped Trudy's cause, once the negative effects of upwelling started to take effect. (3/3)

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 16/10/2026

Furthermore, you may recall that earlier NHC discussions indicated that the core of Trudy may have been ventilated with dry/stable air beginning late this morning UTC, something that as I pointed out may have been aided by 15-20 kts MAXSHR impinging on the system (2/3)

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 16/10/2026

Questions have been raised about how Trudy could fall apart so rapidly. We can only speculate. Trudy's forward motion has been quite slow, the waters beneath already depleted by Simon/Polo, therefor upwelling seems like a plausible culprit. That's NHC's speculation in the latest discussion. (1/3)

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 16/10/2026

Final recon data suggests that even the latest intensity of 75 kts may be bullish for Trudy. The Maximum 700 mbar FL winds were 76 kts (*0.9 = 68.4). TC-ATLAS SEAR was also only 64 kts. The pressure appered to be rising slightly, now 982.2 via dropsonde.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 16/10/2026

Interests should also note that the current JTWC forecast suggest that tropical storm conditions will start to prevail on Guam about 12 hours prior to CPA, at that point preperations should be completed, as conditions will begin to become too dangerous for further preperations.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 16/10/2026

It should be noted that Champi is now explicitly no longer progged to make landfall on Guam but the forecast CPA to Guam is still less then 15 km. This should be enough for a direct hit and should mean that Typhoon conditions should prevail on at least some fo the island.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 16/10/2026

Champi has indeed embarked on a period of rapid intensification that is now forecast to turn it into a major typhoon (C3+ SSHWS) upon closest appraoch to Guam (direct hit) early Sunday morning (local). Preperations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 16/10/2026

This is now also reflected in the latest intensity estimate transmitted via the ATCF. According to that estimate Trudy currently has 1 minute sustained wind speeds of 140 km/h (85 mph) and a MSLP of 982 mbar. Screenshot: RyanKnack's Web Server (knackwx)

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 16/10/2026

Preliminary data from recon suggests that Trudy has weakened considerably, much more then the latest advisory suggests. The pressure derived from dropsonde is 981.6 mbar (advisory 963). Max FL winds so far are 67 kts (*0.9 = ~60 kts). This all suggests Trudy is only a category 1.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 16/10/2026

Tropical storm 01P is actually quite well put together. Recent microwave images show a formative core is present, including a nearly complete cyan ring at 36 Ghz. FNV3 in particular suggests a hurricane-force system is on the cards. Luckily only a few scattered atols near its path.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 16/10/2026

NHC doesn't mention an ERC in their latest discussion. The opened eyewall is said to likely be the result of dry air intrusion. It is noteworthy that most guidance indicates that some 15-20 knots of MAXSHR continues to impinge on Trudy, potentially facilitating ventilation of the system.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 16/10/2026

A recent partial SSMIS 91 Ghz image of Hurricane Trudy indicated that the eyewall replacement cycle is progressing, with the outer band being wrapped more around the SE side of the core. EIR is also roughly coherent with the idea of an ERC. Recon is on their way to investigate Trudy

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 16/10/2026

The latest official forecast for Hurricane trudy still brings her dangerously close to the coast of Jalisco on Sunday. A landfall can still not be ruled out and even if Trudy stays off-shore, significant impacts are still possible, including damaging winds and flooding rain.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 16/10/2026

Champi has become better organized since last evening, now much more clearly exhibiting a CDO pattern. Recent GMI images showed a nascent inner core open to the south with a cyan ring at 36 Ghz. This could lay the groundwork for the rate of intensification to hasten.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 16/10/2026

Overnight Trudy intensified into a major hurricane. Indeed the satellite presentation was quite impressive for a while but has since deteriorated. M-PERC ERC probs have been elevated. A recent GMI MW image suite showed an eyewall open to SW as well & formative outer concentric band.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 16/10/2026

Invest 92P in the SWPAC seems to to be in the process of TCG and is under TCFA by JTWC. The system looks well put together on satellite and a 1920Z ASCAT-B indicated the LLC was almost there as well. Should become the first named storm of the 26/27 season. The first name is Wati

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

The latest JTWC forecast appears to present a compromise between the diverging solutions. It is propably no coincidence that it is placed almost excactly between the consensus of HWRF/HAFS-A and the FNV3 ensemble mean. Interests in Guam should be prepared for stronger intensities (2/2)

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

It should be noted that while Champi's track can be progged with good confidence, the intensity forecast is more tricky. On one side of the envelope, GDM models are very bullish. 12Z FNV3 indicating an intensity of 123 kts at CPA. On the other hand HWRF/HAFS-A show a Tropical storm near Guam. (1/2)

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

The latest JTWC forecast also shows a 48 hour period of rapid intensification commencing at 18Z tomorrow. This brings Champi in the vicinity of Guam & Rota on the cusp of major typhoon (C3+ SSHWS) strength in 48 hours. Interests there need to start putting their typhoon plan into motion.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

Champi is still expected to rapidly intensify. This period should commense some time tomorrow. 12Z FNV3 derived RI (30 kt/24 hr) probs peak for the period ending in 48 hours. It could also begin sooner tho, as also indicated by 12Z RIPA consensus showing 50% for 45/36.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

Based on EIR, Champi is for the time being continueing to have difficulty maturing due to the negative effects of wind shear. A recent 1904 UTC SSMIS 91 Ghz image suggests the cloud mass stil lacks any apreciable organisation and is also mostly displaced to the SW of the LLCC.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

This is consistent with the idea that Trudy should soon undertake a (second) bout of rapid intensification. Traditional rapid intensification aids continue to show elevated probabilities far above climatology. The latest NHC forecasts thereby explicitly calls for this.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

This being said convective bursts still have trouble sustaining on the upshear side and EIR suggests there may continue to be weakness on the south side of the core. However while it would certainly help, a (fully) closed eyewall is not neccessarily a pre-requisit for RI.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

The satellite presntation of Trudy has been improving lately. A distinct warm spot has become evident near the center of the CDO, following repeated rounds of (dual) VHTs. This provides suggestive evidence that the rate of intensification may be starting to or is about to hasten.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

Since then recon has found maximum FL winds of 84 knots (*0.9 = 75.6 knots). They also found evidence suggesting the pressure is dropping, XTRAP being ~2 mbar lower then during their first pass. No sonde. The center temperature was also higher. Eyewall still open SW via VDM.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

So far the hurricane hunters found 700 mbar FL winds of 70 knots (*0.9 = 63 kts) in the SE quadrant of Trudy. Higher winds possible in the soon to be investigated NE quadrant. TC-ATLAS FL SEAR already 69 knots. MSLP via dropsonde ~978.5 mbar. The eyewall is open to the SW via VDM

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

Trudy is still forecast to come dangerously close to the coast of west-central Mexico over the weekend as a very dangerous major hurricane. The guidance shows conflicting trends. A landfall is still possible. Interests there should be prepared to put their hurricane plan into action.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

Trudy has now become a hurricane. Recent MW data showed a nascent inner core but indicated the eyewall was open to the NW, this is roughly consistent with some noxious sub-outflow layer shear still impinging on Trudy. CBs also generally seem to have trouble surviving upshear.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

The current overall consensus of reliable intensity guides for Champi appears to be around 125 knots peak. GDM guidance is much more bullish tho, suggesting virtually assured cat5. Considering the environment, especially after tau 84, I'd tend more towards GDM side of things.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

29W (future Champi) is still expected to become a beast. Violent Typhoon written all over. More importantly tho it is progged to pass through the Guam-Rota-Tinian vicinity early Sunday. JTWC forecast currently shows 80 knots but some skillful guides suggest it could be very dangerous major typhoon.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

On the balance of things Trudy is not expected to make landfall along the coast of west-central mexico. The multi-model consensus parallels the coast between hours 48 and 120. A landfall is still possible tho. Interests along the cost should closely monitor the progress of Trudy.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

It is very likely that Simon is no longer a hurricane. Not only has the system completely come apart but in two passes the hurricane hunters have failed to find FL winds coming evene clos to suggesting this. Dropsonde suggests around 50 knots. MSLP is around 990 mbar it seems.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

Tropical storm Trudy continues to mature today. ASCAT data from earlier suggesting the LLCC was beneath the cloud mass on the southeast side of the system. Trudy should rapidly intensify at some point in the next couple 36-48 hours and eventually become a major hurricane.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

Simon continues to fall apart today as northerly shear continues to take its toll. First light visible indicates the LLC is partially exposed. A 1140Z SSMIS suite was helpful in confirming that Simon has become vertically tilted and that the core has taken significant damage.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

OMG, the hurricane hunters of the air force reserve are scheduled to investigate Hurricane Simon later today.

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