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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 13h

Choi-wan has now graduated to rotating multiple VHTs around a nascent eye feature. One has to assume that this is the beginning of a sustained period of rapid intensification.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 16h

Choi-wan has continued to suffer from growing pains. This may indicate HWRF is more accurate. Still shear should relax soon if it has not alraedy and allow for rapid intensification to comence atop high OHC waters and with good outflow aloft. Super Typhoon still on the table.,

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 17h

Ever since Last Nite, Nolo has had an eye that has been coming and going. All the while core convection has been generally increasing in depth. As a result NHC has once again upgraded her to a hurricane. Nolo should once again become a major Hurricane/Typhoon this weekend.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 23h

Rachel has come apart quite a bit since yesterday and this is propably related to upwelling of colder waters as a result of her slow forward motion. In the midst of all of this, Rachel also appears to be undergoing an eyewall replacement. 95 kts may honestly be a tad generous.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Nolo is already starting on the road to recovery and she hasn't even properly broken through the trough yet. While fairly shallow still, convection has almost completely wrapped around the LLCC. You can also easily see the column moisten on Water Vapor. Bodes well for the future.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Hurricane Rachel has improved markedly in satellite presentation lately. The CDO has never been so symmetrical as Rachel makes another attempt to sustain <-70°C cloud tops all the way around the eye. Category 4 is possible if this keeps up, in fact ADT is almost there already.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

The satellite presentation of Hurricane Rachel has further improved since earlier and in fact an eye has appeared. Rachel does however have trouble keeping said eye open. In general it is clear that shear continues to bother the storm and this is still stunting the rate of intensification.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Rachel has made some progress since yesterday but shear clearly remains troublesome. MW from this morning showed that the core had become better defined and there was a full cyan ring at 36 Ghz but the eyewall was still open to the north and there appeared to still be some tilt.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

77 kts peak FL winds measured in the NE quadrant also do not indicate that Rachel has strengthened any. In fact this only reduces to 70 kts at the surface. Yesterdays 12Z mission actually captured higher winds up to 84 knots. Only because of the pressure, I would maintain at 75 kts.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Recon poked around a bit around the low-level circulation center and managed to find an extrapolated pressure as low as 975 mbar. This is at least lower then the low 980s pressures they found earlier but still implies little progress. 291200Z mission also had mid 970s min XTRAP.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Tomorrow Rachel should encounter lower shear more in the range of 10-15 knots and this should allow her to mature more readily. Ther vertical tilt needs to decrease and the core needs to become better defined for a shot at RI. Starting to doubt higher end outcomes tbh, we'll see.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Rachel seems to have made little if any progress today based on satellite. Recon backs this up. MW from earlier indicates a ragged nascent inner core tho but also indicated the vortex was still titled from shear. Shear has been 15-20 knots all day but should relax some tomorrow.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Tropical Storm 26W (soon Choi-wan) is expected to only gradually consolidate and strengthen at first, with wind shear somewhat restrictive through hour 48-60. After that the rate of intensification should pick up as shear relaxes. Choi-wan could then even become a Super Typhoon.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Nolo has indeed been thoroughly decapitated by absolutely brutal amounts of wind shear and shear hasn't even peaked yet according to most guides (mostly progged for around 18Z). Nolo should recover tho once shear relaxes towards the weekend and propably even become a major again.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

It seems like Rachel has transitioned from more of a CCC pattern to more of a CDO pattern today. This should be the beginning of a period of steady to rapid strengthening into a major hurricane over the next 48 hours, even as some nagging shear continues to persist across the system.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Polo verification🧵 As is often the case for hurricanes, at least these days, Polo tended to be an overarchiever. (Physics based) Models struggled to predict excactly how strong Polo would be and therefor virtually all the traditiomal guidance tended to be biased low (1/4)

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

The intensity prospects of Rachel may be quite sensitive to her position relative to Polo's cold wake. That being said the NHC sides with the upper-end of the guidance envelope, which is to be fair populated by the HCCA and most FNV3 members, very skilfull guides indeed.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Rachel continues to look a tad ragged today but the satellite presentation has been improving. Recon data collected earlier today has lead the NHC to conclude that she is on the cusp of Hurricane status. This shows the importance of recon, cuz almost all sat estimates are quite a bit lower.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

It is however hard to imagine that Nolo will be able to resist any further once shear reaches some 40-50 knots tomorrow. Model guidance is in good agreement that this should eviscerate the core. There may still be recovery once shear relaxes tho but it would start from near zero.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Hurricane Nolo is still trying withstand increasingly hostile wind shear, as she interacts with the trough to the west. Recent microwave imagery indicates that the core is still mostly intact for now, eyewall open to southeast.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Despite at least 30 knots of shear, Major Hurricane Nolo continues to hang onto some resemblance of a core. In fact Nolo tried open an eye not so long ago and even now there is an eye-like feature. Recent AMSR3 imagery also indicated that most of the eyewall was still there.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

It appears that Hurricane Polo has now made his final landfall on the east side of the Gulf of California as a marginal hurricane. The latest official intensity was 120 km/h (75 mph). Polo should rapidly dissipate but make for flooding hazard in parts of the S(W) US in the next few days.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

On this note, the current maximum intensity on the best track for Super Typhoon Surigae is 130 kts at 1800Z. A 2121Z SAR pass indicated peak 1 minute sustained winds of 135 kts. This was also after likely peak. Tho of course SAR is not perfect and the vast majority of other estimates are lower.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Officially Nolo peaked at 135 kts with the 0900Z advisory. But was it maybe higher? Well, the satellite presentation peaked between about 0600Z-0900Z. 0447Z SAR yielded 133kt peak winds but more importantly a 1642 pass still indicated 135 kt peak winds. Food for thought...

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Hurricane Nolo is now being increasingly picked up by wind shear (and resulting ventilation). The eye has collapsed and the CDO is becoming incraesingly ragged and asymmetrical. The latest advisory intensity is still 125 kts, which is reasonable but only cause of inertia.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

These images of Hurricane Nolo were taken by NOAA-20 about 12 hours later, again in stunning detail. Via ATCF the intensity around this time was 250 km/h (155 mph) 929 mb. In reality the peak was likely slightly earlier. You can see for instance the waning convection N of the eye in this image

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Tropical storm Rachel is ragged today and only gradual development is expected, especially at first. However the intensity prognosis is interesting. While NOAA Hurricane Models show high C1 to mid C2 peaks, some guidance from HCCA, CTCX and Google DeepMind suggests potential for C3.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season remains a season of slop. Eearlier today, another sloppy tropical storm named Hanna joined the frey. She should hang on for a couple of days, before a change in vector should cause the system to be more thoroughly ventilated with dry air.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Major Hurricane Polo is now in its final approach to landfall. Based on data from recon, the intensity has been pegged at 100 kts and Polo is now expected to remain a major hurricane through landfall. In fact Polo seems to be trying to re-strengthen based on satellite.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Typhoon Surigae is currently being blown out like a candle on a birthday cake by evidently hostile amounts of shear. Both HAFS-A and GFS indicate around 40 kts mid-level shear. That would do it. Shear should decrease soon but the damage is already beyond repair at this point.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Here are some high resolution satellite images of rapidly intensifying Major Hurricane Nolo from Last Nite. By this time Nolo already had a fairly symmetrical CDO surrounding a circular nearly 20°C stadium effect eye. The intensity via ATCF was 215 km/h (130 mph) 948 mbar

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Hurricane Polo is worse for wear as it appraoches his first landfall in Baja California Sur, which is currently progged near Las Barrancas late this afternoon or early this evening, prolly at around 165-175 km/h. Recon is on the way to investigate the system near landfall.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Since last evening Major Hurricane Nolo has managed to rapidly intensify to the cusp of Category 5 status. Unfortunately it doesn't seem like she will actually make it there. Shear increases quite sharply today and the signs of this are already starting to become appearent.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Super Typhoon Surigae captrured from polar orbit in ultra high-res from polar orbit. Shortly thereafter JTWC would upgrade the intensity to 130 kts (240 kph, 150 mph) 929 mb, which was and will likely remain its peak.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Polo is now bearing down on parts of the western Baja California coast. Very soon conditions will become too dangerous to complete any further preperations. Landfall expected tmrw afternoon, still as a major hurricane. Flooding impacts possible well inland, event into the US.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

And they did call it a category 3. Nolo is now finally a major hurricane and still strengthening. The eye is now >15°C and quite circular. Mesovortices clearly visible. CDO symmetrical. Recent estimates range from 108 kts (AiDT) to 127 kts PGTW DVTS. LIkely least 110 kts rn.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

JTWC did indeed upgrade Surigae to Super Typhoon with the 18Z ATCF, however as soon as this occured wind shear started to really take its toll on the storm. The salad days are therefor over. This likely also prevented an ERC from proceeding, M-PERC full model ~0.8, V-based: ~0.5

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Recon investigating Hurricane Polo finds that the latest NHC advisory was propably right on the money. Pressure is around 950 mbar. 700 mbar FL winds are around 117 kts, which converts to about 105 kts (195 km/h, 120 mph) but that's a floor rather then a ceiling. No chnages were made in 28A over 28.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

On the latest pass through the center of Hurricane Nolo, the AF hurricane hunter aircraft encountered FL winds of 105 knots, this would convert to around 95 kts 1 min sustained at the surface. Right on the bubble C2/C3, pressure also on that bubble. Honestly call it a major

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Polo has certainly taken a beating, likely as a result of a combo of external & internal factors (increased easterly shear and some kind of ERC). Hurricane Polo is however trying to make a comeback, trying to open his eye again as the sun rises over the storm. Recon investigating

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

The satellite presentation of Nolo has been improving more or less all day as she tracks west and picks up the pace (upwelling issue solved). It is therefor no surprise that AF recon observed the pressure steadily falling during their current mission. Fow now data indicates C2 intensity tho.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Now that I have returned from Moldova, I can set to attack as we continue to go through the meet of the season. October is typically an active period in the pacific. Still looking whether Atlantic and NIO can do something.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Lat Nite (UTC) NOAA JPSS Polar orbiting satellites snapped rapidly intensifying Typhoon Surigae in stunning detail. Clearly visible is for instance the milky white cirrus fanning out in at least 3/4 quadrants (often indication of rapid intensification).

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Note that I said weakness, not weakening. For now Suriagae is holding on nicely, even as the sat presentation shows that shear starts to bother it.Looking only at recent fixes, the floor is AiDT with 122 kts, CMA DVTS is T7.0 is max. JTWC could reasonably upgrade to STY at 1800Z

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Typhoon Surigae has rapidly intensified into a 125 knot Category 4 Typhoon according to JTWC, thanfully stayin just off-shore okinawa today. The system is showing some signs of weakness this afternoon, likely mainly a result of more unfavourable shear starting tO impinge on it.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Pleased to see that NRL has finally implemented AMSR3 images from GOSAT-GW into their datastream again. Attached image of Hurricane Odalysis showing the southern side of the system completely eroded due to shear.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

The satellite presentation of Hurricane Polo has massively deteriorated over the last few hours, as an eyewall replacement cycle is underway. This has likely caused Polo to fall below C5 strength by now and kickstart the storms weakening phase through landfall on Monday.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Tropical storm Surigae is not particularly impressive at the moment. JTWC currently progs it as a 85 kt typhoon near the Ryukyu islands on Sunday, JMA goes with T5.0 peak. Some guidance progs a major typhoon tho, which doesn't seem entirely unreasonable tbh, east of Ryukyus tho.

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sausiuswx.bsky.social @sausiuswx.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Recon just for the third time in a row found an XTRAP MSLP in the low 910s. This indicates that the intensity of Hurricane Polo has remained relatively stable over the last few hours at around 150 knots 914 mbar as transmitted by NHC via ATCF for 1800Z fix

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