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Dr Sari Arho Havrén @sariarhohavren.bsky.social · 27/04/2026

Geopolitics in the era of fragmentation: Countries choose their partners based on optionality; the ones that secure your objectives and increase your resilience.

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Dr Sari Arho Havrén @sariarhohavren.bsky.social · 26/04/2026

Macron calling it as it is: Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump, and Xi Jinping are all against Europe 🇪🇺. A disunited and weak Europe would be easier to control and exploit.

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Dr Sari Arho Havrén @sariarhohavren.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

Middle powers may want to become a balancing global power base, but China is (regretfully) the only one offering a blueprint for what the next order should look like. Without a designed offer, it is impossible to sell anything.

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Dr Sari Arho Havrén @sariarhohavren.bsky.social · 12/04/2026

No deal with the war over Iran will likely trigger a continued disruption of the Strait of Hormuz and further global supply chain shock. 1/5

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Dr Sari Arho Havrén @sariarhohavren.bsky.social · 12/04/2026

Many analysts (myself included) predicted a period of Cold War II and a bipolar world. This was short-lived, as it rested on the assumption that the US would maintain its superpower status not only through its military but also 1/3

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Dr Sari Arho Havrén @sariarhohavren.bsky.social · 12/04/2026

The Hungarian government has signed an agreement with Russia to expand economic, trade, energy and cultural ties. They also underscored the importance of “developing long-term, mutually beneficial ties between the two countries in areas of mutual interest.” 1/2

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Dr Sari Arho Havrén @sariarhohavren.bsky.social · 12/02/2026

Remember the Cheka? The first Soviet secret security organisation, established in 1917 by Vladimir Ilyich Lenin to protect the Bolshevik Revolution. It was designed to eliminate threats to the Soviet regime and, eventually, it was the Cheka that enforced the Red Terror against political opponents.1/

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Dr Sari Arho Havrén @sariarhohavren.bsky.social · 10/02/2026

“After Trump, the old America could make a comeback”, Gideon Rachman writes in his latest worth-reading column in FT. “The gathering backlash against Trump is steadily increasing the chance that his presidency will ultimately be seen as a grotesque aberration — rather than a lasting shift.” 1/

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Dr Sari Arho Havrén @sariarhohavren.bsky.social · 10/02/2026

Nothing happens in Europe dominates the discussions too often: Investors are pouring billions of euros into European AI and defence tech start-ups, backing companies seen as critical to Europe’s economic competitiveness and security. 1/2

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Dr Sari Arho Havrén @sariarhohavren.bsky.social · 06/02/2026

Interesting article on People’s Daily today about Xi Jinping’s attention to grassroots officers. “Chairman Xi is extremely concerned about the life of the officers and soldiers on board; …. 1/4

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Dr Sari Arho Havrén @sariarhohavren.bsky.social · 08/12/2025

Those who voted against Russia, Iran, Belarus, etc., are no surprise, but China, India, Indonesia, among many others, abstained. Seemingly a morally challenging decision indeed, whether a war aggressor should return children to their parents whom it has kidnapped as an action of war.

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Dr Sari Arho Havrén @sariarhohavren.bsky.social · 08/12/2025

When Russia praises the new US security strategy, you get the idea of the magnitude of the shift that has taken place.

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Reposted by Dr Sari Arho Havrén

Council on Geostrategy @congeostrategy.bsky.social · 29/10/2025

🗣️ ‘The new embassy poses concrete security risks, and symbolically feeds into the war on narratives, amplifying the idea democracy is weak and has a propensity to sacrifice national security for economic gains,’ says @sariarhohavren.bsky.social, our International Fellow #Tangram #ObservingChina

observingchina.org.uk

Should Whitehall say ‘mega no’ to China’s ‘mega embassy’ in London?

The Tangram | No 09.2025

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Dr Sari Arho Havrén @sariarhohavren.bsky.social · 31/10/2025

Even if nobody believes that the G2 order is emerging by agreement, Beijing must be pleased to be seen as an equal peer.

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Dr Sari Arho Havrén @sariarhohavren.bsky.social · 20/10/2025

Bessent said that the US would counter China together with allies. Allies understand that countering China starts in Ukraine, not by appeasing Putin.

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Dr Sari Arho Havrén @sariarhohavren.bsky.social · 19/10/2025

Chinese lawmakers told members of the European Parliament that NATO shouldn’t exist, and spouted Russian talking points about the war in Ukraine at a rare meeting in Brussels on Thursday. 1/

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Reposted by Dr Sari Arho Havrén

Council on Geostrategy @congeostrategy.bsky.social · 17/10/2025

We are pleased to announce that @sariarhohavren.bsky.social and Dr Jeffrey Ordaniel are joining us as International Fellows! 🔗 Read the full announcement here: www.geostrategy.org....

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Dr Sari Arho Havrén @sariarhohavren.bsky.social · 10/10/2025

It is actually positive news that President Trump will not meet with the Chairman of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping.

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Dr Sari Arho Havrén @sariarhohavren.bsky.social · 10/10/2025

During President Stubb’s visit to the White House, President Trump answered Finnish media’s questions and said the United States has no plans to withdraw its troops from Europe, but they may be redeployed.

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Dr Sari Arho Havrén @sariarhohavren.bsky.social · 10/10/2025

Beijing kills two (or more) birds with one stone with the new export controls. For Europe, this means seriously slowing down Europe’s rearmament by hitting hard at European defence industries. Beijing was never a fan of the 5% GDP defence target.

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Dr Sari Arho Havrén @sariarhohavren.bsky.social · 08/10/2025

Inconsistency in foreign affairs is the new normal. Modi just congratulated Putin: “Spoke w my friend President Putin and conveyed warm birthday greetings and best wishes for his good health and long life. Deeply appreciate his personal commitment to deepening India–Russia ties over the years.” 1/3

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Dr Sari Arho Havrén @sariarhohavren.bsky.social · 07/10/2025

⤵️ tells us that treating China on the basis of not upsetting it undermines national security and judicial processes. The prosecution couldn't bring official evidence to prove China as an enemy because the government documents refer to it as a Geo-Strategic Challenge.

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Dr Sari Arho Havrén @sariarhohavren.bsky.social · 07/10/2025

This is fundamentally necessary, and as a European, I am pleased that our policymakers are finally doing the bare minimum. This has been obvious for a decade (if not more, considering the number of industries we would have lost to China). 1/

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Reposted by Dr Sari Arho Havrén

Etienne Soula @etiennesoula.bsky.social · 07/10/2025

So, to summarize: EV tariffs aren't working, the EU is now more dependent on China than ever, member states are cooling on a joint response, and the continent's two biggest economies are either paralyzed or lethargic. Everything is going great @noahbarkin.bsky.social. www.gmfus.org/news/watchin...

gmfus.org

Watching China in Europe—October 2025

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Dr Sari Arho Havrén @sariarhohavren.bsky.social · 07/10/2025

⬇️ The US moves fast, the EU by design like a 🐌. Yet, the risks and dependencies are the same as in the US. The bloc launched its de-risking two and a half years ago; nothing considerable has happened.

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Dr Sari Arho Havrén @sariarhohavren.bsky.social · 07/10/2025

Based on national legislation in most countries, such tankers could be stopped and inspected. The European-wide inertia is staggering.

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Reposted by Dr Sari Arho Havrén

Darth Putin @darthputinkgb.bsky.social · 07/10/2025

OTD in 2006 journalist & activist Anna Politkovskaya was shot dead. Whoever is responsible for having her killed is still at large. And turns 73 today.

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Dr Sari Arho Havrén @sariarhohavren.bsky.social · 07/10/2025

⤵️ tells us that treating China on the basis of not upsetting it undermines national security and judicial processes. The prosecution couldn't bring official evidence to prove China as an enemy because the gov documents refer to it as a Geo-Strategic Challenge. www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...

theguardian.com

China threatened to retaliate against UK over foreign influence rules

Exclusive: Chinese officials warned that targeting its security apparatus would negatively affect relations

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Dr Sari Arho Havrén @sariarhohavren.bsky.social · 06/10/2025

Build the dependencies and they will kowtow. Beijing’s geoeconomic power on display in the 🇬🇧 — without 🇨🇳 doing anything, simply harvesting the benefits.

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Dr Sari Arho Havrén @sariarhohavren.bsky.social · 06/10/2025

In her interview, Mrs Merkel gives the impression that Poland and the Baltic states prevented diplomacy with Moscow, and therefore, after her departure, Russia’s aggression broke out. There’s also, if not entirely another, but a complementary explanation. It was and is all about HER.

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Dr Sari Arho Havrén @sariarhohavren.bsky.social · 05/10/2025

“Although Trump has railed against China over trade, he has shown little appetite for deepening U.S. military engagement in Asia to counter Beijing's military buildup. He has shown no inclination to contest spheres of influence with China by viewing the world as a geopolitical chessboard.” 1/

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Dr Sari Arho Havrén @sariarhohavren.bsky.social · 05/10/2025

Sounds like something the PRC does, although 🇨🇳 has - for the most part - automated the surveillance long ago.

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Dr Sari Arho Havrén @sariarhohavren.bsky.social · 05/10/2025

On Friday, the Helsinki District Court ruled that it doesn't have jurisdiction over cable damage caused by the Eagle S in the Baltic Sea. The 🇷🇺 shadow fleet oil tanker Eagle S dragged its anchor on the seabed in the Gulf of Finland for hours on Christmas Day. It damaged 5 undersea cables. 1/

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Dr Sari Arho Havrén @sariarhohavren.bsky.social · 29/09/2025

A cargo ship linked to a drone attack that disrupted air traffic in Denmark and is linked to a Russian mercenary/military company, RSB Group, arrived at the port of Hamina in Finland at night‼️11/13 of the crew are Russians. 1/3

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Dr Sari Arho Havrén @sariarhohavren.bsky.social · 28/09/2025

This is not mere visioning. Western governments, pressured for funding public services, can save money by adopting these already widely used techniques. The rule of law currently protects individuals from those in power, but the rising far right is not known for rigorously defending civil rights.

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Dr Sari Arho Havrén @sariarhohavren.bsky.social · 28/09/2025

If the EU’s 19th sanction package against🇷🇺 is adopted as proposed, the measures wld represent one of the EU’s most aggressive rounds, driven by Trump’s demands that allies impose 50–100% tariffs on Chinese and Indian companies buying🇷🇺 oil. Let's break down what this means, esp for 🇨🇳 and 🇮🇳: 1/

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Dr Sari Arho Havrén @sariarhohavren.bsky.social · 28/09/2025

The Finnish Foreign Minister @elinavaltonen.bsky.social acknowledges the tragic facts: “Unfortunately, dealing with any imperialist power like Russia, diplomacy hardly helps.”

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Dr Sari Arho Havrén @sariarhohavren.bsky.social · 26/09/2025

Two theatre simulation preparedness exercises have not been in vain. The scenario of the PRC’s invasion of Taiwan, supported by Russian Indo-Pacific forces, and simultaneous Russian attacks on Ukraine and NATO countries in Europe, is not unthinkable. ⤵️ www.rusi.org/explore-our-...

rusi.org

How Russia is Helping China Prepare to Seize Taiwan

Russia has agreed to equip and train the PLA to air-drop armoured vehicles and special reconnaissance capabilities.

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Dr Sari Arho Havrén @sariarhohavren.bsky.social · 25/09/2025

FT: The battle for US media freedom: “One way to gauge the intentions of would-be authoritarians is to see how far they tolerate the jesters. An early sign of Putin’s quest to bring 🇷🇺 media to heel was the 2001 axing of Kukly (Puppets), a TV show that often satirised the thin-skinned president.”

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Dr Sari Arho Havrén @sariarhohavren.bsky.social · 25/09/2025

China’s remarks on Ukraine at the UN Security Council yesterday insisted on calling Russia’s over three-year war of aggression and invasion of Ukraine still a crisis. by Ambassador Geng Shuang at the UN Security Council High-level Briefing 2025-09-23 20:00 1/4

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Dr Sari Arho Havrén @sariarhohavren.bsky.social · 20/09/2025

The West is losing because we allow China (and Russia) to define the terms of the competition.

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Dr Sari Arho Havrén @sariarhohavren.bsky.social · 20/09/2025

We just witnessed Russian MiG-31 fighters in Estonian airspace for 12 minutes. Just before, we had drones in Poland and Romania. European NATO members have to choose now between whether they are letting Russia’s inching work or showing that NATO's border holds.

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Reposted by Dr Sari Arho Havrén

Council on Geostrategy @congeostrategy.bsky.social · 16/07/2025

What does Beijing’s declared interest in 🇺🇦 mean for 🇬🇧 - 🇨🇳 relations? We asked four experts for their take in today’s #Tangram ✍️ Charles Parton OBE, @sariarhohavren.bsky.social, Leon Sinfield and Danielle Reader #ObservingChina

observingchina.org.uk

What does Beijing’s declared interest in Ukraine mean for UK-PRC relations?

The Tangram | No 07.2025

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Reposted by Dr Sari Arho Havrén

Council on Geostrategy @congeostrategy.bsky.social · 16/07/2025

‘The explicit nature of Wang’s comment makes it even harder to manage the gap and continuing to bet on the PRC as the economic lifeline for the UK,’ states @sariarhohavren.bsky.social, @rusi.bsky.social #Tangram

observingchina.org.uk

What does Beijing’s declared interest in Ukraine mean for UK-PRC relations?

The Tangram | No 07.2025

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Dr Sari Arho Havrén @sariarhohavren.bsky.social · 24/06/2025

We should not forget about #Georgia and allow it to become another #Belarus‼️ My friend from Tbilisi just flagged how 📌 As of now, every remaining opposition party leader is in prison. 📌 Eight NGOs have received court orders that will soon lead to their closure. 1/2

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Dr Sari Arho Havrén @sariarhohavren.bsky.social · 01/06/2025

“Europe has a problem that it doesn't quite want to see how close the relationship between China and Russia is and how it also benefits China.” My interview in the Finnish Verkkouutiset by @kaisapaastela.bsky.social @rusi.bsky.social 1/2

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Dr Sari Arho Havrén @sariarhohavren.bsky.social · 22/04/2025

Wang Yi to his 🇮🇩 colleague Sugiono in Beijing: “With the US launching a global trade war..” “We must..jointly defend international fairness and justice, send a signal of unity and openness to the outside world..” 🇨🇳 uses powerful speaking points (+tangible perks) to lure countries to its side.

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