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Sam Portillo

@samrportillo.bsky.social
489 followers 177 following 324 posts

Pol comms in Wales. Formerly South Wales Argus and MA News Journalism at Cardiff University. All posts in personal capacity / views mine own!

PostsRepliesMedia
Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 03/06/2025
Mr Musk
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Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 12/05/2025
“I know, on a day like today, people who like politics will try to make this all about politics, about this or that strategy, targeting these voters, responding to that party. No. I am doing this because it is right, because it is fair, and because it is what I believe in.” Starmer being meta
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Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 08/05/2025
Fi hefyd! If Trump says we’re bigly respected it must be true
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Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 08/05/2025
Proud to live in a big and highly respected country
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Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 07/05/2025
How does 30% rack up against Plaid’s historic peaks? Is it a record high? Wondering what their ceiling is.
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Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 01/05/2025
I have been “Riverminded” by CapCut… these features were free before #BlackMirror
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Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
Just watched this and agree it was exceptional
theguardian.com
The Settlers review – this vital film forces Louis Theroux to do something he’s never done before
The documentarian manages to stay calm and polite as guns are repeatedly pointed at him in the West Bank. Then someone shoves him …
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Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
Glad to be Welsh sometimes (most the time)
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Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 24/04/2025
Same in Wales please
theguardian.com
Lib Dems back ban on playing music and videos on public transport in England
Under the plan, those who flout the prohibition could face a maximum fine of £1,000
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Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 22/04/2025
Very astute analysis. Enjoyed reading this 👏
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Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 21/04/2025
Today I learned you can bet on the next Pope
oddschecker.com
Next Pope Odds: Who Will Take Over in Vatican After Passing of Pope Francis?
Pope Francis passed away on Monday morning, just hours after his final Easter service. Who will get the nod to replace him in the Vatican next week? Peter Alexis explores the process of electing a new...
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Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 21/04/2025
😦
news.sky.com
Pope Francis has died, the Vatican says
Francis became pope in 2013. In recent years, the 88-year-old was forced to cancel some events, sometimes at the last minute, because of his health.
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Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 20/04/2025
I see the latest subject of faux outrage in Wales is tram-trains without toilets. When was the last time you found a train toilet on the London Underground?
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Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 17/04/2025
Such an impressive and exciting discovery. We're talking about a planet 700 TRILLION miles away. "The amount we estimate of this gas in the atmosphere is thousands of times higher than what we have on Earth. So, if the association with life is real, this planet will be teeming with life."
bbc.co.uk
Scientists find promising hints of life on distant planet K2-18b
Scientists find new but tentative evidence that a faraway world orbiting another star may be home to life.
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Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 17/04/2025
Voting intention among Brits with/without degree education (April) With degree Labour 31% Conservative 19% Lib Dem 17% Reform UK 15% Greens 7% Without degree Reform 29% Conservative 26% Labour 19% Lib Dem 12% Greens 9%
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Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 16/04/2025
% of Brits with a favourable view of… (13/14 April) Green Party 41% 🟢 Liberal Democrats 36% 🟠 Labour Party 29% 🔴 Reform UK 28% 🟣 Starmer 28% 🔴 Farage 27% 🟣 Davey 24% 🟠 Conservatives 24% 🔵 Rayner 21% 🔴 Badenoch 16% 🔵 Reeves 14% 🔴 Denyer 8% 🟢
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Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 15/04/2025
If I see one more politician posting their ChatGPT action figure …
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Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 15/04/2025
Too easy
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Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 15/04/2025
I’m all for football analysis but seeing more and more ridiculous posts like this where people mistake fancy words for thoughtful analysis Heliocentric attacks 🤣
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Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 14/04/2025
Not quite Glastonbury is it
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Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 13/04/2025
Black Mirror, Common People, so so good.
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Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 12/04/2025
Can’t believe I predicted the plot of #DoctorWho
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Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 10/04/2025
Scenario 5 - Conservative Collapse What if Reform gain 3% more in vote share at the expense of the Tories? In this case, Reform could reach 31 seats, while Tories manage just EIGHT. Not enough for right wing coalition. Labour and Plaid joint-second with 27 seats - so could form coalition.
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Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 10/04/2025
Scenario 4 - Reform Win Over Nationalists What if Reform extend their appeal among 'Welsh' identifying voters? Here we boost their vote share to 27% at the expense of Labour and Plaid. Reform could reach 30 seats, five more than runner-up Labour. Still not enough for majority even with Tories.
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Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 10/04/2025
Scenario 3 - Plaid Win Over Progressives In this scenario, we're giving Plaid +3% vote share, taking them to 27%, at expense of Labour and Lib Dems. Plaid +2 seats Tories +1 Lib Dems -1 Labour -2 Despite no extra seats, this would make Reform biggest party with just 24% of vote. But no majority.
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Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 10/04/2025
Scenario 2 - Labour Win Over Reform Supporters In this scenario, we're giving Labour +2% vote share, taking them to 29% again -- but this time at the expense of Reform. Cavendish projector still does not think Labour would pick up any extra seats. Reform would lose 1, which the Tories would gain.
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Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 10/04/2025
Scenario 1 - Labour Win Over Progressives In this scenario, we're giving Lab +2% vote share, taking them to 29%, at the expense of Plaid and the Greens. This would result in no overall changes to the composition of the Senedd.
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Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 10/04/2025
Scenario 0 - Current Polling Latest from @survation.bsky.social shows Lab with 27% of vote. Plaid and Reform joint second on 24%. This could translate into Labour being the largest party (28 seats), followed by Reform (27), then Plaid (24). Labour + Plaid = 52 seats, majority. Reform opposition.
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Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 10/04/2025
A non-exhaustive, way-too-early experiment of different vote share scenarios and how they would translate into #Senedd seats. Seat projections by @cavendishcymru.bsky.social A thread 🧵 public.flourish.studio/visualisatio...
public.flourish.studio
Senedd seat projections
A Flourish data visualization by Sam Portillo
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Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
Mario Kart World Take My Money
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Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 02/04/2025
% of party supporters with negative opinion of billionaires (Yougov, 2 April) Labour 66% Lib Dem 65% Reform 33% Cons 29%
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Reposted by Sam Portillo
Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 31/03/2025
My Prospect column this month on why disability benefits cuts undermine Labour's "security" narrative. www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/696...
prospectmagazine.co.uk
Labour promises security—just not for everyone
Rachel Reeves used to talk about “securonomics”, but the government's benefits cuts will leave millions feeling insecure about their future
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Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 31/03/2025
I get it, you’re angry… promise to restore your security… my approach not glamorous but how I do business… The Starmer/McSweeney pitch on immigration (published in the Mail)
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Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 28/03/2025
Befriended a bloke from Caerphilly while descending the Eiffel Tower steps #welshthings
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Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 24/03/2025
Well, who was it?
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Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 24/03/2025
McSweeneyism
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Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 21/03/2025
High press
walesonline.co.uk
Football club stunned to learn key player jailed for years
'Being brutally honest we only heard about this on the day he was sentenced. He had never told us'
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Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 20/03/2025
There must be a funny caption for this I just can’t think of it
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Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 18/03/2025
Fascinating article
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Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 18/03/2025
Intrigued by the Lib Dem -> Reform pipeline. Parties seem polar opposite.
bbc.co.uk
Cheshire East Liberal Democrat councillor defects to Reform UK - BBC News
Reg Kain becomes the party's first representative on Cheshire East Council.
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Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 17/03/2025
😢
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Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 15/03/2025
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Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 15/03/2025
Days of the week, ranked 1. Saturday 2. Friday 3. Thursday 4. Sunday 5. Tuesday 6. Wednesday 7. Monday
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Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
Someone, somewhere, is going to see today’s news about NHS England and think Labour is scrapping the NHS
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Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
Percentile rankings v other full-backs over the past 365 days (FBRef)
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Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
Is there a better left back than Nuno Mendes? His performance last night moved me
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Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 11/03/2025
Can’t argue on the HS2 fiasco but two of your examples there, the devolution of policing and justice, are plainly ideological. To suggest UK Govt is ‘hostile’ because they haven’t devolved the CE or directly replaced HS2 monies is… hyperbolic, as you say. Is there polling on public support?
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Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 11/03/2025
Thought Nuno Mendes was imperious, as were the snappy midfield beside him. This is a fun team to watch and easy to root for. How times change
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Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 11/03/2025
Deserved #LIVPSG
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Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 11/03/2025
The Welsh Government wants it devolved yes, but hostile to the people of Wales? Really?
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