Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 12/05/2025“I know, on a day like today, people who like politics will try to make this all about politics, about this or that strategy, targeting these voters, responding to that party. No. I am doing this because it is right, because it is fair, and because it is what I believe in.” Starmer being meta 000
Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 08/05/2025Fi hefyd! If Trump says we’re bigly respected it must be true 000
Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 08/05/2025Proud to live in a big and highly respected country 110
Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 07/05/2025How does 30% rack up against Plaid’s historic peaks? Is it a record high? Wondering what their ceiling is. 000
Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 01/05/2025I have been “Riverminded” by CapCut… these features were free before #BlackMirror 020
Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 28/04/2025Just watched this and agree it was exceptionaltheguardian.comThe Settlers review – this vital film forces Louis Theroux to do something he’s never done beforeThe documentarian manages to stay calm and polite as guns are repeatedly pointed at him in the West Bank. Then someone shoves him … 020
Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 24/04/2025Same in Wales pleasetheguardian.comLib Dems back ban on playing music and videos on public transport in EnglandUnder the plan, those who flout the prohibition could face a maximum fine of £1,000 011
Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 21/04/2025Today I learned you can bet on the next Popeoddschecker.comNext Pope Odds: Who Will Take Over in Vatican After Passing of Pope Francis?Pope Francis passed away on Monday morning, just hours after his final Easter service. Who will get the nod to replace him in the Vatican next week? Peter Alexis explores the process of electing a new... 000
Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 21/04/2025😦news.sky.comPope Francis has died, the Vatican saysFrancis became pope in 2013. In recent years, the 88-year-old was forced to cancel some events, sometimes at the last minute, because of his health. 000
Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 20/04/2025I see the latest subject of faux outrage in Wales is tram-trains without toilets. When was the last time you found a train toilet on the London Underground? 010
Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 17/04/2025Such an impressive and exciting discovery. We're talking about a planet 700 TRILLION miles away. "The amount we estimate of this gas in the atmosphere is thousands of times higher than what we have on Earth. So, if the association with life is real, this planet will be teeming with life."bbc.co.ukScientists find promising hints of life on distant planet K2-18bScientists find new but tentative evidence that a faraway world orbiting another star may be home to life. 000
Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 17/04/2025Voting intention among Brits with/without degree education (April) With degree Labour 31% Conservative 19% Lib Dem 17% Reform UK 15% Greens 7% Without degree Reform 29% Conservative 26% Labour 19% Lib Dem 12% Greens 9% 002
Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 16/04/2025% of Brits with a favourable view of… (13/14 April) Green Party 41% 🟢 Liberal Democrats 36% 🟠 Labour Party 29% 🔴 Reform UK 28% 🟣 Starmer 28% 🔴 Farage 27% 🟣 Davey 24% 🟠 Conservatives 24% 🔵 Rayner 21% 🔴 Badenoch 16% 🔵 Reeves 14% 🔴 Denyer 8% 🟢 011
Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 15/04/2025If I see one more politician posting their ChatGPT action figure … 010
Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 15/04/2025I’m all for football analysis but seeing more and more ridiculous posts like this where people mistake fancy words for thoughtful analysis Heliocentric attacks 🤣 100
Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 12/04/2025Can’t believe I predicted the plot of #DoctorWho 020
Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 10/04/2025Scenario 5 - Conservative Collapse What if Reform gain 3% more in vote share at the expense of the Tories? In this case, Reform could reach 31 seats, while Tories manage just EIGHT. Not enough for right wing coalition. Labour and Plaid joint-second with 27 seats - so could form coalition. 000
Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 10/04/2025Scenario 4 - Reform Win Over Nationalists What if Reform extend their appeal among 'Welsh' identifying voters? Here we boost their vote share to 27% at the expense of Labour and Plaid. Reform could reach 30 seats, five more than runner-up Labour. Still not enough for majority even with Tories. 100
Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 10/04/2025Scenario 3 - Plaid Win Over Progressives In this scenario, we're giving Plaid +3% vote share, taking them to 27%, at expense of Labour and Lib Dems. Plaid +2 seats Tories +1 Lib Dems -1 Labour -2 Despite no extra seats, this would make Reform biggest party with just 24% of vote. But no majority. 100
Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 10/04/2025Scenario 2 - Labour Win Over Reform Supporters In this scenario, we're giving Labour +2% vote share, taking them to 29% again -- but this time at the expense of Reform. Cavendish projector still does not think Labour would pick up any extra seats. Reform would lose 1, which the Tories would gain. 100
Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 10/04/2025Scenario 1 - Labour Win Over Progressives In this scenario, we're giving Lab +2% vote share, taking them to 29%, at the expense of Plaid and the Greens. This would result in no overall changes to the composition of the Senedd. 100
Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 10/04/2025Scenario 0 - Current Polling Latest from @survation.bsky.social shows Lab with 27% of vote. Plaid and Reform joint second on 24%. This could translate into Labour being the largest party (28 seats), followed by Reform (27), then Plaid (24). Labour + Plaid = 52 seats, majority. Reform opposition. 100
Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 10/04/2025A non-exhaustive, way-too-early experiment of different vote share scenarios and how they would translate into #Senedd seats. Seat projections by @cavendishcymru.bsky.social A thread 🧵 public.flourish.studio/visualisatio...public.flourish.studioSenedd seat projectionsA Flourish data visualization by Sam Portillo 100
Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 02/04/2025% of party supporters with negative opinion of billionaires (Yougov, 2 April) Labour 66% Lib Dem 65% Reform 33% Cons 29% 000
Reposted by Sam PortilloSam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 31/03/2025My Prospect column this month on why disability benefits cuts undermine Labour's "security" narrative. www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/696...prospectmagazine.co.ukLabour promises security—just not for everyoneRachel Reeves used to talk about “securonomics”, but the government's benefits cuts will leave millions feeling insecure about their future 27126
Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 31/03/2025I get it, you’re angry… promise to restore your security… my approach not glamorous but how I do business… The Starmer/McSweeney pitch on immigration (published in the Mail) 010
Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 28/03/2025Befriended a bloke from Caerphilly while descending the Eiffel Tower steps #welshthings 020
Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 21/03/2025High presswalesonline.co.ukFootball club stunned to learn key player jailed for years'Being brutally honest we only heard about this on the day he was sentenced. He had never told us' 000
Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 20/03/2025There must be a funny caption for this I just can’t think of it 000
Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 18/03/2025Intrigued by the Lib Dem -> Reform pipeline. Parties seem polar opposite.bbc.co.ukCheshire East Liberal Democrat councillor defects to Reform UK - BBC NewsReg Kain becomes the party's first representative on Cheshire East Council. 100
Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 15/03/2025Days of the week, ranked 1. Saturday 2. Friday 3. Thursday 4. Sunday 5. Tuesday 6. Wednesday 7. Monday 000
Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 13/03/2025Someone, somewhere, is going to see today’s news about NHS England and think Labour is scrapping the NHS 010
Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 12/03/2025Percentile rankings v other full-backs over the past 365 days (FBRef) 000
Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 12/03/2025Is there a better left back than Nuno Mendes? His performance last night moved me 110
Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 11/03/2025Can’t argue on the HS2 fiasco but two of your examples there, the devolution of policing and justice, are plainly ideological. To suggest UK Govt is ‘hostile’ because they haven’t devolved the CE or directly replaced HS2 monies is… hyperbolic, as you say. Is there polling on public support? 100
Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 11/03/2025Thought Nuno Mendes was imperious, as were the snappy midfield beside him. This is a fun team to watch and easy to root for. How times change 000
Sam Portillo @samrportillo.bsky.social · 11/03/2025The Welsh Government wants it devolved yes, but hostile to the people of Wales? Really? 100