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Sam Alvis @samalvis.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

The new government has a knotty problem on energy. It needs fiscal space to help billpayers, it want's new infrastructure to underpin the industrial strategy, and it will need decide on Rosebank/Jackdaw In a new piece for @ippr.org Stephanie Loo and I work through a potential part of the solution..

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Sam Alvis @samalvis.bsky.social · 23/06/2026

I think the three most feasible this parliament are: 1. Integrated settlements / fiscal devolution that helps mayors build their own energy assets, leasing them or franchising them to the private sector to run (a bit like Bristol City Leap). ukerc.ac.uk/publications...

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Sam Alvis @samalvis.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

Top work session of my career watching @sofiejenkinson.bsky.social explaining Mr Blobby to 100 Europeans in Rome. renewal.org.uk/blog/mr-blob...

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Sam Alvis @samalvis.bsky.social · 13/06/2026

They certainly aren’t doing it themselves! employer spending on training is down 30% since 2011 and on nearly every metric of employer led training (£/quality/length) we sit below most European countries. Historically about a quarter of French employer investment, half of Germany

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Sam Alvis @samalvis.bsky.social · 13/06/2026

The new Quentin Blake house of illustration is amazing. Beautiful building, great exhibitions and loads more space than the old Kings Cross site.

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Sam Alvis @samalvis.bsky.social · 01/06/2026

the post-crisp era is such an improvement

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Sam Alvis @samalvis.bsky.social · 29/05/2026

www.bbc.co.uk/weather/arti... There's so many little bits of society that have not caught up with the fact the UK is increasingly a hot country. Looking at the Lullably Trust for example on baby summer safety - keep the room below 20deg with closed curtains and gentle breeze...

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Sam Alvis @samalvis.bsky.social · 20/05/2026

The removal of Russian sanctions is shameful. Govt knows this and trying to find a scapegoat. But the idea that the North Sea could ever plug a gap in jet fuel and diesel supplies, let alone plug a gap NOW is unhinged and uninformed www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/ideas/techno...

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Sam Alvis @samalvis.bsky.social · 20/05/2026

The @thecccuk.bsky.social report today is landmark. Adaptation is something politicians see as a future problem. Its not. We'll cross 1.5 degrees *this parliament*, the current govt will deal with those consequences Great coverage by @fionaharvey.bsky.social www.theguardian.com/science/2026...

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Sam Alvis @samalvis.bsky.social · 14/05/2026

I appreciate good media needs to be paid for but it is very annoying that a year old sponsored piece by the incumbent industry sits at the top of search results for North Sea

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Sam Alvis @samalvis.bsky.social · 07/05/2026

8/ Manage bond markets by - clear criteria to act eg., prices crossing £2000 - With the BoE communicating the most recent academic evidence on managing inflation through fiscal policy - Time bound, rolling 3 month review - Cost bound, cap support at £25bn total over parl - Fund with some tax rises

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Sam Alvis @samalvis.bsky.social · 07/05/2026

5/ Capping *does* lower the price signal. In energy not by loads, but government can make up for that. There are other signals - both guidance and regulation that can reduce demand. IEA has called for lower speed limits, WFH, carpooling.

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Sam Alvis @samalvis.bsky.social · 07/05/2026

4/ Inflation and interest rate rises are the most damaging thing to govt's fiscal position. We find in the current stalement inflation reaches near 6% costing govt £8bn a year in debt interest and lost tax revenue. This is significantly more costly than intervening. But 2 caveats...

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Sam Alvis @samalvis.bsky.social · 07/05/2026

3/ If prices go beyond £2000 that means inflation is taking off. The fundamental reason to cap prices is to prevent expectations of high inflation setting in and avoid the blunt tool of interest rate rises Although consumers are protected until July, govt needs to commit now to manage expectations.

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Sam Alvis @samalvis.bsky.social · 05/05/2026

A big problem with a government for a government who's narrative has been completely different to it's policies. A majority of progressive defectors think Labour has *cut* public spending - because that's what they've been told!

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Sam Alvis @samalvis.bsky.social · 19/04/2026

6/6. A bit less money for some investors sure but not a reason to dramatically reprice energy companies. That doesn't mean market reform should never be on the table, just that its not needed while we build a new system. Read the full piece electionenergy.substack.com/p/ee-22-cons...

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Sam Alvis @samalvis.bsky.social · 19/04/2026

5. But because govt has the ultimate solution (build) it doesn't need to do something radical. It needs to stop rent payments going to old renewables, build more, faster, and increase flexibility (so demand is spread throughout the day).

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Sam Alvis @samalvis.bsky.social · 19/04/2026

4. But the CHX's loose statement opens up a world of changing electricity markets. Especially with the volume of proposals flying around on the left atm.

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Sam Alvis @samalvis.bsky.social · 19/04/2026

3. The only proven way to 'break the link' is by building lots of renewables. Look at the difference between Spain and Italy. The UK wants to get here, and we are. With Clean Power gas will set the price ~15% of the time.

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Sam Alvis @samalvis.bsky.social · 19/04/2026

2. Higher gas prices mean windfall payments for legacy renewables. Marginal pricing allows the UK to source the cheapest generation first (that's good!) but when your marginal unit is expensive and used often it costs. But those rents aren't going to gas - they're going to legacy renewables

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Sam Alvis @samalvis.bsky.social · 06/04/2026

Jim Tankersly writing on behalf of his family - pictured

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Sam Alvis @samalvis.bsky.social · 31/03/2026

Greatest Australian batsmen in your view Minister?

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Sam Alvis @samalvis.bsky.social · 25/03/2026

But fundamentally we are going to have to learn to ride these two horses at the same time - unwinding a fossil fuel system that will throw up risks we're not expecting - whilst building a new clean system. Each external shock makes both of those harder. electionenergy.substack.com/p/ee20-a-tra...

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Sam Alvis @samalvis.bsky.social · 25/03/2026

Constraining fossil fuel demand and supply is going to lead to more volatiltiy as they won't happen in sync, and clean energy isn't yet ready to take all the slack. We can build better systems to insulate and protect people - we still can't target energy support! Electric tech density is too low

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Sam Alvis @samalvis.bsky.social · 25/03/2026

In the middle of a price shock your goals are economic - protect consumers and suppress inflation. Solar and batteries can help some people now, but the price shock itself makes expanding clean energy harder. This will get worse. open.substack.com/pub/election...

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Sam Alvis @samalvis.bsky.social · 22/03/2026

Maybe I’m just secronomics pilled but this strikes me as more ‘single point of failure’ than humble brag.

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Sam Alvis @samalvis.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

8. To back that up our mitigation policy needs to get more creative, tying protection in. The example we use is the current mass rollout of solar - pair it with air con in London/SE. One its a good energy policy (matching supply and demand), it minimises disruption, and protects people/services now

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Sam Alvis @samalvis.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

7. The public wants to hear arguments about insurance and prudency. This is the sensible, common sense thing to do. It isn't a moment for a progressive revolution on how we run the country. We are investing in better infra, making risk measures visible, helping people to prepare.

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Sam Alvis @samalvis.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

6. Thats because the impacts are not a middle class urban concern. They are everywhere - but so prevalent where Reform is winning - Essex, Kent, Linconshire, the Humber.

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Sam Alvis @samalvis.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

5. There is no group that doesn't want adaptation and mitigation together. They sees we have to deal with the issue now and stop it getting worse - tough on crime tough on the causes of crime. It binds a voting coalition. Left leaning voters have high climate concern, right high threat perception

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Sam Alvis @samalvis.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

4. Worse - we're building loads of new houses and infrastructure that aren't prepared for even current weather, let alone as things get worse. We're storing up political problems and flashpoints with no solutions. But luckily the public are ahead of politicians, as usual

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Sam Alvis @samalvis.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

1. Jan was the 4th wettest in 120yrs, 2025 was the 3rd hottest. Cllimate scientists say we will cross 1.5C this parliament, 16yrs earlier than thought Heat/floods have real impacts on people and hurts public services - kids miss school, hospitals cancel surgery climate.copernicus.eu/rapid-approa...

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Sam Alvis @samalvis.bsky.social · 03/03/2026

Feels like Sunak's March 2020 budget, fear we will be back here soon - and principally because of energy. As eg @acjsissons.bsky.social has written there isn't a lot you can do here 4 policy buckets, all cost £, but budget policies had a material consumer impact and reduce inflation expectations:

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Sam Alvis @samalvis.bsky.social · 02/03/2026

This is gunna age fast. Qatari shutdown (30% of UK imports) sending prices up fast

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Sam Alvis @samalvis.bsky.social · 02/03/2026

UK prices rising sharper already crossed last march

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Sam Alvis @samalvis.bsky.social · 02/03/2026

Time series are going to matter here. EU Gas markets Currently not close to Ukraine rises. Still less than March last year. But big jump (29%) overnight

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Sam Alvis @samalvis.bsky.social · 18/02/2026

Also not to get parochial about this but they don't even SELF report as the most ignored part of the UK (from the Brown commission).

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Sam Alvis @samalvis.bsky.social · 02/02/2026

My bias here: we have over-indexed on basic research at the expense of science directed towards policy/societal problems There is an excellent essay for the case of this to address climate from 1998 - science needs to be more useful www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

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Sam Alvis @samalvis.bsky.social · 19/01/2026

We had a report last week on battery supply chains, mentioned in the FT piece - regulatory uncertainty didn't come top of our list www.ippr.org/articles/res... @praneshippr.bsky.social @ippr.org @sofiepultz.bsky.social

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Sam Alvis @samalvis.bsky.social · 19/01/2026

There are some very impressive crowding in numbers here www.gov.uk/government/n... Obviously I will continue to wage my war against jobs numbers in PRs especially 'up to' but no wonder HMT were happy to increase the pot

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Sam Alvis @samalvis.bsky.social · 31/12/2025

2025 1) On a Sunbeam 2) Orbital is as good as people say, felt new 3) prophet song awful like truly terrifyingly bleak but incredible. The Need similarly. Wouldn’t advise both close together. Janesville 2nd best non fiction over ever read DNF - didn’t finish NF - non fiction GN - graphic novel

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Sam Alvis @samalvis.bsky.social · 26/11/2025

OR NOT. Good day for the OBR

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