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Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺

@saladinaldronni.bsky.social
8.4K followers 124 following 1.5K posts

Researcher. Polish voice on terror, conflicts, crime networks, Islamic State, al-Qaeda. Now, also following Islamic State's plans in Africa. Politics in the Sahel. Writing for hire. DM. @saladinaldronni on X/Twitter ko-fi.com/saladinaldronni

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Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 10h
:) Turning east: the rise of Islamic State’s Khorasan Province by Paweł Wójcik. thedefensepost.com/2018/07/31/a...
thedefensepost.com
Turning east: the rise of Islamic State's Khorasan Province
ISKP’s growth in Afghanistan coincides with its losses in Iraq and Syria, but the US and Taliban are fighting back, Paweł Wójcik writes
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Reposted by Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 14/10/2026
Ah, I forgot to add the context on BlueSky - it's about the battle of Dioura from a month ago, where JNIM killed at least 5 Russian and over a hundred of Malian soldiers I discussed below. fronts.co/article/mali...
fronts.co
Mali War Map: JNIM's Push and What Comes Next
JNIM's capture of Kidal and its tightening grip on northern Mali have pushed the junta and its Russian backers toward the brink. Here's what comes next.
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Reposted by Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 14/10/2026
It it wasn't for the currently ongoing mega war between Islamic State and JNIM, this here would still have visible consequences - there indeed are *at least* a few dozens of corpses visible, making the over 100 death toll very likely. Massive amount of spoils + hostages taken.
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Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 10h
MOAB is being considered again huh, this time in Iran. I remember how big of a deal it was for CENTCOM to use it to bomb Islamic State Khorasan in Achin in 2017. Back then, US and Taliban had multiple mini agreements to fight the monster,Jowzjan's Hekmat most glaring. edition.cnn.com/2026/10/15/p...
edition.cnn.com
US considering using ‘Mother of All Bombs’ against Iran, sources say | CNN Politics
The US military has developed new strike plans that include potentially using the so-called “mother of all bombs” to target Iranian energy infrastructure and nuclear sites should President Donald Trum...
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Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 14/10/2026
Thank you for kind words
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Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 14/10/2026
Ah, I forgot to add the context on BlueSky - it's about the battle of Dioura from a month ago, where JNIM killed at least 5 Russian and over a hundred of Malian soldiers I discussed below. fronts.co/article/mali...
fronts.co
Mali War Map: JNIM's Push and What Comes Next
JNIM's capture of Kidal and its tightening grip on northern Mali have pushed the junta and its Russian backers toward the brink. Here's what comes next.
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Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 14/10/2026
P.S. - JNIM stealing Syrian Civil War era Ahrar al-Sham's anthem as usual remains a funny gimmick they practice, but back in Syria or Saudi Arabia where those things come from, people are not really happy an al-Qaeda affiliate is this brazen ;).
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Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 14/10/2026
We are now monitoring what both groups are doing in Niger/Burkina Faso, and what will be a true outcome of the grand jihadi civil war. From that one we could determine in what direction 2027 will be going. For now I really can't say what is the exact result of that war. To watch.
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Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 14/10/2026
It kind of adds that impression that the more time passes the more it's something resembling a rollercoaster with multiple actors having no choice but punch the air out of helplessness, because the situation is on one hand very simply - on the other, ultra complicated.
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Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 14/10/2026
And again - if not for IS, JNIM would be preparing for a major campaign, Kidal, while I think would have still fallen regardless, wouldn't have the very same outcome with a visible tensions between FLA and JNIM, inside an alliance that is still relatively new.
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Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 14/10/2026
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Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 14/10/2026
This video + the one from yesterday confirm the integration of several different tactics we could see in April and July, that are no longer a simple drone monitoring, but adjustment of supporting fire before the shock troops arrive at the scene.
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Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 14/10/2026
In a way what is happening in the centre of Mali is not really the same theater stricte as the Burkina Faso's Oudalan, Menaka/Gao/Timbuktu + Tillaberi units. It all matters for the overall al-Qaeda command in the Sahel, perspectives and focus differ.
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Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 14/10/2026
It it wasn't for the currently ongoing mega war between Islamic State and JNIM, this here would still have visible consequences - there indeed are *at least* a few dozens of corpses visible, making the over 100 death toll very likely. Massive amount of spoils + hostages taken.
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Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 14/10/2026
Will comment on this in detail once my analysis has been published at usual plac
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Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 14/10/2026
Unfortunate news from Iraq - Brigadier General Ahat Yasser Khudair Hussein and several other soldiers fell victim to the Islamic State’s IED attack in Kirkuk, where majority of clashes between Iraqi government and Islamic State is focused after American withdrawal. Big loss.
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Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
There may be surprises down the line, no way IRGC would have tolerated the insurgency evolution of this kind previously, by Jaish al Adel and friends within the coalition. It doesn't seem they can brute force it anymore as is their habit. Very interesting.
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Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
I mentioned it in March, but it's especially relevant in October - to watch are events on Iranian side of Balochistan. Pakistani needs no introduction, insurgency there is powerful, but the one in Iran is slowly stepping up the game. So are events in Iranian Kurdistan.
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Reposted by Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺
Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
There have been a series of battles stretched from Gao/Timbuktu in Mali, through Tillabéri in Niger all the way to Burkina Faso's Oudalan province. The biggest Islamic State and Al-Qaeda clashes since Syrian Civil War. Absolutely unprecedented scope of what happened in the Sahel.
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Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
I intend to work on several analyses in this, will write my views on Substack and record a Youtube video - want to properly cover this one. Ramifications are something else.
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Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
Consequences would be dire for every state in the vicinity, just as it would be a major defeat for JNIM's ambitions, already severely strained by massive Malian fronts impact and the need to survive Russian/Mali regime onslaught. We are waiting for JNIM's voice on this.
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Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
For now, it is difficult to ascertain the sheer scale of the events here. We know they are big, now Islamic State declares they were even bigger. This here, if confirmed in the next few days that IS is right, may result in an actual Islamic State breakthrough everywhere.
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Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
In addition, Islamic State claims to have burnt over 300 motorcycles, seized many vehicles including 100 motorcycles, over 460 machine guns and other resources. Some supposed large names from al-Qaeda command are supposed to be dead.
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Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
There have been a series of battles stretched from Gao/Timbuktu in Mali, through Tillabéri in Niger all the way to Burkina Faso's Oudalan province. The biggest Islamic State and Al-Qaeda clashes since Syrian Civil War. Absolutely unprecedented scope of what happened in the Sahel.
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Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
Here we go. It's Islamic State first that breaks the silence on the grand jihadi civil war ongoing in the Sahel. And the numbers the groups claims are wild - 400 Al-Qaeda militants are supposed to have been slain by the Islamic State in Burkina Faso. #BurkinaFaso
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Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
In the wake of recent protests in Azerbaijan - a reminder of my analysis on the country's unique problem of late that usually people have no idea about. But it's coming back frequently.
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Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
A sign of how horrible it has all become. Egyptian airstrikes on Sudanese miners kill hundreds and Injures another, and nobody bats an eye anymore. Russians bomb Ukrainian buses, killing hundreds throughout last week, who cares. Hundreds killed in Nigeria, who cares. Grim.
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Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
Gunmen ambushed a convoy of traders travelling to a ​market under military escort and killed at least 20 ‌people in Nigeria's northwestern Zamfara state, a witness and a military source said on Monday. www.reuters.com/world/africa...
reuters.com
Gunmen in northwestern Nigeria kill 20 people heading to market
Gunmen ambushed a convoy of traders travelling to a ​market under military escort and killed at least 20 ‌people in Nigeria's northwestern Zamfara state, a witness and a military source said on Monday...
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Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
At least 139 migrants, including at least 15 children, have died and around 84 are missing after a boat carrying more than 300 people capsized while sailing from Djibouti to Yemen, with the hope of reaching the rich Gulf states for work. www.reuters.com/world/africa...
reuters.com
At least 139 migrants dead, including some children, after boat from Djibouti to Yemen capsizes, UN agency says
At least 139 migrants, including at least 15 children, have died and around 84 are missing after a boat carrying more than 300 people capsized while sailing from Djibouti to Yemen, the United Nations'...
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Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
Meanwhile, Mogadishu is on the verge of another civil war *inside* the city, continuation of the crisis from a few months ago, but now it is quickly spiraling out of control. The rest of the country is also fighting in different capacity +IS/AQ. The entire region is in flames.
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Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
Results? No way we know, if someone claims one way or another he is lying. I personally think Islamic State here has an upper hand based on my own info, but it's difficult to ascertain, at least for Sunday evening on October 11. We shall see. But it's a bloodbath.
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Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
Today, there are even more rumors all around, others have commented on it in recent hours, you have my multiple threads for this. Just reiterating - current Islamic State vs al-Qaeda war in the Sahel seems to be the biggest between them *ever* and that's absolutely huge.
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Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
Yes, but Polish one was glaringly the biggest and stupidest.
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Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
They rose because they have an actual religious legacy other movements don't have.
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Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
There is a lot to be said in rants of this caliber, but I urge people to stop being NPC bots in the lives and acknowledge that we are living in a world that isn't Disneyland and Rainbows everywhere, some stuff must have attention paid to. Otherwise, you become a hopeless cattle.
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Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
And yet, their spaces, that are supposed to not be fake, don't say a word on crises like this. Tok Tok is busy on a topic, Instagram on another, Facebook...is an ad slop and trash, you only have news on Twitter if you deliberately force traffic to come to you by lists/Followed.
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Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
Usual, boring media that people have for the last decade accused of being manipulators and fake news, obviously report on things like the new Houthi/Saudi war and consequences. But, since they are labeled fake news, people ignore them.
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Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
But as I always say, people have and must have agency. As much as it is corporations shameless profit-driven mechanic, people are hopelessly ignorant and on their own decide to stay ignorant. They are not forced to stay in rabbit holes at all.
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Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
is irrelevant, by their own choice and by design - for obviously, techbros have designed their platforms to make it difficult to escape in-groups, once one is caught there, that person is gone for good to an echo chamber.
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Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
In a way, I am completely resigned at how it all is so idiotic. Never in the history of this world there has been a possibility for an individual to know so much due to internet and prevalent presence of media and yet, people deliberately abstain from knowing, thinking it...
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Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
Quest for irredentist conquest that is not ending on Yemen at all, and the nature of Houthi-ruled society means even a more agressive regime than IRGC, since in order to stay at the helm, Houthis must force everyone to fight in the bid for supremacy. People are unaware.
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Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
People were unaware and still took flight to and through Saudi Arabia - and got stranded, while actual serious casualties at Saudi airports appeared, and nothing indicates a stop any soon, since it's a fight for Houthi survival, interconnected with their...
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Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
Were stranded under heavy Iran fire in the whole Gulf, especially UAE, some arriving in the middle of bombings, unaware there is ongoing war it matters to them. Right now, there is a war in Yemen, that is as standalone war in Yemen as much it is spillover of Iran war - yet...
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Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
In December/January, when UAE was forced to withdraw from its Yemeni possessions and the main proxy was swallowed by Saudi Arabia, Polish tourists were stranded at Yemeni Socotra, unaware fight matters to them. In March, Polish (and others) tourists/businessmen...
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Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
Will obviously say more on this once it's been verified but for now it's a heavy dreamland territory, prone to exploits by half-wits. Poland is only *now" coming to terms with something I have long been advocated for - that we are an actual target. Difficult to change mindset.
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Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
For non-Poles it's difficult to grasp, but I would advise to be careful re Tusk and terror attack claims circulating around, there is a big chance some of you will stumble upon wild claims of his haters/lovers. Caution. Especially in these troubled times.
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Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
Ho, now this is something. NYT has just reported that 12 were killed and 50 injured in the Houthi strike at King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, damage is still being assessed. Watch how things will go from here (escalation is an understatement). www.nytimes.com/2026/10/10/w...
nytimes.com
Saudi Arabia’s Riyadh Airport Attacked Again, After Days of Houthi Strikes (Gift Article)
The strike on Saturday was the deadliest attack in a Gulf Arab country since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began in February, and forced the airport to temporarily suspend operations.
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Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
-Catching up on Al-Qaeda matters -an article pops up, reads "Did Santa Claus join al-Qaeda". -ok, wrap it up I am too tired for this shit today.
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Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
Well, that attack in Riyadh today may have actually been enough to trigger something bigger in the next few hours. Houthis are gambling hard.
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Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺 @saladinaldronni.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
Throughout the last day, Police arrested over 76 people, 50 000 of schools have been checked for safety concerns, more people are on the way to being detained due to threats and abundance of caution. Wild week in Poland, believe me.
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