Reposted by Safe Care Ontario
Canadian COVID Forecast Aug 1 - Aug 14, 2026
ONTARIO
MODERATE [no change]
About 1 of every 280 people is infected.
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
-Infections: 2.6 x higher
-Long COVID: 4.7 x higher
-Hospitalizations: 2.8 x higher
-Deaths: 1.9 x higher
![This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for the fourteen-day period between Aug 1 - Aug 14, 2026, which is produced by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Ontario's COVID Forecast outlook is MODERATE [no change] with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 2.4
About 1 of every 280 people is infected.
Estimated infections this week: 48,400-77,800
What these numbers mean: MODERATE 1-5, HIGH 5-10, VERY HIGH 10-15, SEVERE >15 COMPARED TO THE LOWEST POINT IN THE COVID PANDEMIC IN CANADA
How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada?
Waste water, infections: MODERATE; 2.6X higher
Long COVID: MODERATE; 4.7X higher
Hospitalizations: MODERATE; 2.8X higher
Deaths: MODERATE; 1.9X higher
HOW TO HELP:
EVERYONE:
UPDATE vaccines every 6 months
WEAR N95-type masks
Who is HIGH RISK?
People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant
ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months
Recommendations are based on the COVID-19 Risk Index from the Peterborough ON Public Health Unit
COVID-19 Resources Canada is a grassroots organization of volunteer scientists supporting Canadian COVID responses. Sources, data and methods for the COVID Index are available at www.Covid19Resources.ca](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:qbuobwdie7rzq4fburk63aft/bafkreiavmpxreqlz2ehgsl6utp5dkevnadqcnzn336a7inwcfqodohlcgi)
![This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for the fourteen-day period between Jun 6 - Jun 19, 2026, which is produced by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Ontario's COVID Forecast outlook is MODERATE [decreasing] with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 3.4
About 1 of every 379 people is infected.
Estimated infections this week: 34,800-59,400
What these numbers mean: MODERATE 1-5, HIGH 5-10, VERY HIGH 10-15, SEVERE >15 COMPARED TO THE LOWEST POINT IN THE COVID PANDEMIC IN CANADA
How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada?
Waste water, infections: HIGH; 6.0X higher
Long COVID: MODERATE; 4.7X higher
Hospitalizations: MODERATE; 2.6X higher
Deaths: MODERATE; 1.5X higher
HOW TO HELP:
EVERYONE:
UPDATE vaccines every 6 months
WEAR N95-type masks
Who is HIGH RISK?
People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant
ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months
Recommendations are based on the COVID-19 Risk Index from the Peterborough ON Public Health Unit
COVID-19 Resources Canada is a grassroots organization of volunteer scientists supporting Canadian COVID responses. Sources, data and methods for the COVID Index are available at www.Covid19Resources.ca](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:qbuobwdie7rzq4fburk63aft/bafkreigmue7445m5cwijvyldjr6awri4wapb3k66g6kgtfe26rfdyom7xa)
![This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for the fourteen-day period between May 9 - May 22, 2026, which is produced by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Ontario's COVID Forecast outlook is MODERATE [no change] with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 5.0
About 1 of every 257 people is infected.
Estimated infections this week: 1,700-107,100
What these numbers mean: MODERATE 1-5, HIGH 5-10, VERY HIGH 10-15, SEVERE >15 COMPARED TO THE LOWEST POINT IN THE COVID PANDEMIC IN CANADA
How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada?
Waste water, infections: HIGH; 8.6X higher
Long COVID: HIGH; 5.7X higher
Hospitalizations: MODERATE; 4.0X higher
Deaths: MODERATE; 2.4X higher
HOW TO HELP:
EVERYONE:
UPDATE vaccines every 6 months
WEAR N95-type masks
Who is HIGH RISK?
People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant
ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months
Recommendations are based on the COVID-19 Risk Index from the Peterborough ON Public Health Unit
COVID-19 Resources Canada is a grassroots organization of volunteer scientists supporting Canadian COVID responses. Sources, data and methods for the COVID Index are available at www.Covid19Resources.ca](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:qbuobwdie7rzq4fburk63aft/bafkreibc3mjok3vkpk7i3kcd6ve7xfypxdrobqnzniy4rnispqz6fpux6a)
![This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for the fourteen-day period between Apr 25 - May 8, 2026, which is produced by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Ontario's COVID Forecast outlook is MODERATE [no change] with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 4.6
About 1 of every 237 people is infected.
Estimated infections this week: 64,600-96,400
What these numbers mean: MODERATE 1-5, HIGH 5-10, VERY HIGH 10-15, SEVERE >15 COMPARED TO THE LOWEST POINT IN THE COVID PANDEMIC IN CANADA
How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada?
Waste water, infections: HIGH; 8.4X higher
Long COVID: MODERATE; 4.8X higher
Hospitalizations: MODERATE; 3.3X higher
Deaths: MODERATE; 2.2X higher
HOW TO HELP:
EVERYONE:
UPDATE vaccines every 6 months
WEAR N95-type masks
Who is HIGH RISK?
People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant
ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months
Recommendations are based on the COVID-19 Risk Index from the Peterborough ON Public Health Unit
COVID-19 Resources Canada is a grassroots organization of volunteer scientists supporting Canadian COVID responses. Sources, data and methods for the COVID Index are available at www.Covid19Resources.ca](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:qbuobwdie7rzq4fburk63aft/bafkreiecotdva6ngbcaqqfjq4ejslp7suul3wjvykklssbahamwehbd4zm)
![This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for the fourteen-day period between Mar 28 - Apr 10, 2026, which is produced by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Ontario's COVID Forecast outlook is HIGH [decreasing] with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 6.9
About 1 of every 63 people is infected.
Estimated infections this week: 210,200-293,700
What these numbers mean: MODERATE 1-5, HIGH 5-10, VERY HIGH 10-15, SEVERE >15 COMPARED TO THE LOWEST POINT IN THE COVID PANDEMIC IN CANADA
How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada?
Waste water, infections: HIGH; 8.8X higher
Long COVID: HIGH; 6.5X higher
Hospitalizations: HIGH; 5.7X higher
Deaths: HIGH; 6.3X higher
HOW TO HELP:
EVERYONE:
UPDATE vaccines every 6 months
WEAR N95-type masks
Who is HIGH RISK?
People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant
ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months
Recommendations are based on the COVID-19 Risk Index from the Peterborough ON Public Health Unit
COVID-19 Resources Canada is a grassroots organization of volunteer scientists supporting Canadian COVID responses. Sources, data and methods for the COVID Index are available at www.Covid19Resources.ca](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:qbuobwdie7rzq4fburk63aft/bafkreihtaik4pqvzbmgbpsgbaycncdaqksx6ri26ny2choxd7pgybyuiwy)
![This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for the fourteen-day period between Feb 28 - Mar 13, 2026, which is produced by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Ontario's COVID Forecast outlook is HIGH [increasing] with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 7.7
About 1 of every 82 people is infected.
Estimated infections this week: 261,400-323,300
What these numbers mean: MODERATE 1-5, HIGH 5-10, VERY HIGH 10-15, SEVERE >15 COMPARED TO THE LOWEST POINT IN THE COVID PANDEMIC IN CANADA
How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada?
Waste water, infections: HIGH; 7.8X higher
Long COVID: HIGH; 5.9X higher
Hospitalizations: HIGH; 7.4X higher
Deaths: HIGH; 8.0X higher
HOW TO HELP:
EVERYONE:
UPDATE vaccines every 6 months
WEAR N95-type masks
Who is HIGH RISK?
People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant
ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months
Recommendations are based on the COVID-19 Risk Index from the Peterborough ON Public Health Unit
COVID-19 Resources Canada is a grassroots organization of volunteer scientists supporting Canadian COVID responses. Sources, data and methods for the COVID Index are available at www.Covid19Resources.ca](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:qbuobwdie7rzq4fburk63aft/bafkreihkjzolxhrfshhvtqaqwrthokp7kpfke5t6hjxgx33w6mabdml4h4)
![This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for the fourteen-day period between Jan 31 - Feb 13, 2026, which is produced by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Ontario's COVID Forecast outlook is VERY HIGH [increasing] with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 14.5
About 1 of every 106 people is infected.
Estimated infections this week: 194,800-246,500
What these numbers mean: MODERATE 1-5, HIGH 5-10, VERY HIGH 10-15, SEVERE >15 COMPARED TO THE LOWEST POINT IN THE COVID PANDEMIC IN CANADA
How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada?
Waste water, infections: VERY HIGH; 11.0X higher
Long COVID: HIGH; 6.1X higher
Hospitalizations: SEVERE; 15.5X higher
Deaths: SEVERE; 17.0X higher
HOW TO HELP:
EVERYONE:
UPDATE vaccines every 6 months
WEAR N95-type masks
AVOID indoor social gatherings
AVOID crowded non-essential places
Who is HIGH RISK?
People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant
ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months
Recommendations are based on the COVID-19 Risk Index from the Peterborough ON Public Health Unit
COVID-19 Resources Canada is a grassroots organization of volunteer scientists supporting Canadian COVID responses. Sources, data and methods for the COVID Index are available at www.Covid19Resources.ca](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:qbuobwdie7rzq4fburk63aft/bafkreiapjwpici7rwil4rjeureco7yjdmxnn2stqvjxazzlwlr56fsou7q)
![This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for the fourteen-day period between Jan 17 - Jan 30, 2026, which is produced by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Ontario's COVID Forecast outlook is VERY HIGH [no change] with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 10.9
About 1 of every 94 people is infected.
Estimated infections this week: 125,400-169,000
What these numbers mean: MODERATE 1-5, HIGH 5-10, VERY HIGH 10-15, SEVERE >15 COMPARED TO THE LOWEST POINT IN THE COVID PANDEMIC IN CANADA
How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada?
Waste water, infections: HIGH; 9.4X higher
Long COVID: HIGH; 6.2X higher
Hospitalizations: HIGH; 9.8X higher
Deaths: VERY HIGH; 13.4X higher
HOW TO HELP:
EVERYONE:
UPDATE vaccines every 6 months
WEAR N95-type masks
AVOID indoor social gatherings
AVOID crowded non-essential places
Who is HIGH RISK?
People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant
ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months
Recommendations are based on the COVID-19 Risk Index from the Peterborough ON Public Health Unit
COVID-19 Resources Canada is a grassroots organization of volunteer scientists supporting Canadian COVID responses. Sources, data and methods for the COVID Index are available at www.Covid19Resources.ca](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:qbuobwdie7rzq4fburk63aft/bafkreicfs57ao4bqkqfhvcsp3tmdt3u6tkpuutm6nhzq6zzxhtmte4bp6y)
![This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for the fourteen-day period between Dec 20, 2025 - Jan 2, 2026, which is produced by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Ontario's COVID Forecast outlook is HIGH [decreasing] with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 9.2
About 1 of every 58 people is infected.
Estimated infections this week: 195,500-255,900
What these numbers mean: MODERATE 1-5, HIGH 5-10, VERY HIGH 10-15, SEVERE >15 COMPARED TO THE LOWEST POINT IN THE COVID PANDEMIC IN CANADA
How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada?
Waste water, infections: VERY HIGH; 10.5X higher
Long COVID: HIGH; 6.0X higher
Hospitalizations: HIGH; 8.7X higher
Deaths: HIGH; 8.3X higher
HOW TO HELP:
EVERYONE:
UPDATE vaccines every 6 months
WEAR N95-type masks
Who is HIGH RISK?
People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant
ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months
Recommendations are based on the COVID-19 Risk Index from the Peterborough ON Public Health Unit
COVID-19 Resources Canada is a grassroots organization of volunteer scientists supporting Canadian COVID responses. Sources, data and methods for the COVID Index are available at www.Covid19Resources.ca](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:qbuobwdie7rzq4fburk63aft/bafkreihxqfunzt74psx63ekwqhucgh4sosagoja7bwhnd6gm7xtnajs6nu)
![This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for the fourteen-day period between Nov 22 - Dec 5, 2025, which is produced by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Ontario's COVID Forecast outlook is HIGH [no change] with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 8.2
About 1 of every 184 people is infected.
Estimated infections this week: 194,400-251,500
What these numbers mean: MODERATE 1-5, HIGH 5-10, VERY HIGH 10-15, SEVERE >15 COMPARED TO THE LOWEST POINT IN THE COVID PANDEMIC IN CANADA
How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada?
Waste water, infections: HIGH; 7.8X higher
Long COVID: HIGH; 5.9X higher
Hospitalizations: HIGH; 6.7X higher
Deaths: VERY HIGH; 10.2X higher
HOW TO HELP:
EVERYONE:
UPDATE vaccines every 6 months
WEAR N95-type masks
Who is HIGH RISK?
People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant
ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months
Recommendations are based on the COVID-19 Risk Index from the Peterborough ON Public Health Unit
COVID-19 Resources Canada is a grassroots organization of volunteer scientists supporting Canadian COVID responses. Sources, data and methods for the COVID Index are available at www.Covid19Resources.ca](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:qbuobwdie7rzq4fburk63aft/bafkreiabigavkwkehfegceh27nnmiegioef7wqoc3eo5owasyslglxlm6y)
![This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for the fourteen-day period between Nov 8 - Nov 21, 2025, which is produced by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Canada’s COVID Forecast outlook is VERY HIGH [no change] with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 10.1
About 1 of every 118 people is infected.
Estimated infections this week: 583,200-806,200
What these numbers mean: MODERATE 1-5, HIGH 5-10, VERY HIGH 10-15, SEVERE >15 COMPARED TO THE LOWEST POINT IN THE COVID PANDEMIC IN CANADA
How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada?
Waste water, infections: HIGH; 7.6X higher
Long COVID: HIGH; 6.0X higher
Hospitalizations: VERY HIGH; 10.4X higher
Deaths: VERY HIGH; 12.2X higher
HOW TO HELP:
EVERYONE:
UPDATE vaccines every 6 months
WEAR N95-type masks
AVOID indoor social gatherings
AVOID crowded non-essential places
Who is HIGH RISK?
People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant
ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months
Recommendations are based on the COVID-19 Risk Index from the Peterborough ON Public Health Unit
COVID-19 Resources Canada is a grassroots organization of volunteer scientists supporting Canadian COVID responses. Sources, data and methods for the COVID Index are available at www.Covid19Resources.ca](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:qbuobwdie7rzq4fburk63aft/bafkreigcayvfpw3riiwc5ff4taetmai2egkpb4dyvp7ghhtvqirbpzm2vu)
![This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for the fourteen-day period between Oct 25 - Nov 7, 2025, which is produced by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Ontario's COVID Forecast outlook is VERY HIGH [decreasing] with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 10.3
About 1 of every 139 people is infected.
Estimated infections this week: 183,200-230,400
What these numbers mean: MODERATE 1-5, HIGH 5-10, VERY HIGH 10-15, SEVERE >15 COMPARED TO THE LOWEST POINT IN THE COVID PANDEMIC IN CANADA
How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada?
Waste water, infections: HIGH; 7.0X higher
Long COVID: HIGH; 6.4X higher
Hospitalizations: VERY HIGH; 13.0X higher
Deaths: VERY HIGH; 10.8X higher
HOW TO HELP:
EVERYONE:
UPDATE vaccines every 6 months
WEAR N95-type masks
AVOID indoor social gatherings
AVOID crowded non-essential places
Who is HIGH RISK
People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant
ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months
Recommendations are based on the COVID-19 Risk Index from the Peterborough ON Public Health Unit
COVID-19 Resources Canada is a grassroots organization of volunteer scientists supporting Canadian COVID responses. Sources, data and methods for the COVID Index are available at www.Covid19Resources.ca](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:qbuobwdie7rzq4fburk63aft/bafkreial5s34bh2gw26vsv2g22nlsyusxb55yyetjxntehqyy4ahs5zs5y)
![This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for the fourteen-day period between Oct 11 - Oct 24, 2025, which is produced by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Ontario's COVID Forecast outlook is HIGH [decreasing] with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 7.5
About 1 of every 108 people is infected.
Estimated infections this week: 200,000-345,700
What these numbers mean: MODERATE 1-5, HIGH 5-10, VERY HIGH 10-15, SEVERE >15 COMPARED TO THE LOWEST POINT IN THE COVID PANDEMIC IN CANADA
How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada?
Waste water, infections: MODERATE; 4.7X higher
Long COVID: HIGH; 6.0X higher
Hospitalizations: HIGH; 9.2X higher
Deaths: HIGH; 8.4X higher
HOW TO HELP:
EVERYONE:
UPDATE vaccines every 6 months
WEAR N95-type masks
Who is HIGH RISK?
People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant
ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months
Recommendations are based on the COVID-19 Risk Index from the Peterborough ON Public Health Unit
COVID-19 Resources Canada is a grassroots organization of volunteer scientists supporting Canadian COVID responses. Sources, data and methods for the COVID Index are available at www.Covid19Resources.ca](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:qbuobwdie7rzq4fburk63aft/bafkreidsh7bfepzhjf67no52rgvezotb2u5bqftrxflhjootedr6muozeu)
![This image describes Ontario's COVID Forecast for the fourteen-day period between Sep 27 - Oct 10, 2025 which is produced by COVID-19 Resources Canada.
Ontario's COVID Forecast outlook is HIGH [no change]
Ontario's COVID INDEX SCORE 6.3
About 1 of every 62 people is infected.
Estimated infections this week: 244,150-382,025
What these numbers mean: MODERATE 1-5, HIGH 5-10, VERY HIGH 10-15, SEVERE >15 COMPARED TO THE LOWEST POINT IN THE COVID PANDEMIC IN CANADA
How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada?
Waste water, infections: MODERATE; 4.4X higher
Long COVID: HIGH; 5.7X higher
Hospitalizations: HIGH; 8.1X higher
Deaths: HIGH; 6.4X higher
HOW TO HELP:
EVERYONE:
"UPDATE vaccines every 6 months
WEAR N95-type masks"
Who is HIGH RISK?
People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant
ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months
Recommendations are based on the COVID-19 Risk Index from the Peterborough ON Public Health Unit
COVID-19 Resources Canada is a grassroots organization of volunteer scientists supporting Canadian COVID responses. Sources, data and methods for the COVID Index are available at www.Covid19Resources.ca](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:qbuobwdie7rzq4fburk63aft/bafkreiepmacvmx356rmbzuq75xfkwpkgfrbqo5fhvnquyng7hfyh5ib66a)