iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · 19/09/2026

West slope September stunner. east of Rifle #cowx

A thunderstorm anvil with lots of mammatus; a faint rainbow and mountains in the foreground

47111

Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · 17/09/2026

some fine sunset colors this evening

a sunset with orange-tinted clouds reflected off a lake

a sunset with orange-tinted clouds reflected off a lake, slightly darker than the first photo

0262

Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · 14/08/2026

The parade of MCSs across Indiana has brought the most extreme multi-day rain event in that region in recent decades. Broad swath of amounts exceeding the 1000-yr recurrence interval for 3-day precip; over a foot of rain observed. Closest recent analog was Aug 2014, but that wasn't as widespread.

maps of points exceeding the 1000-year average recurrence interval for 72-h rainfall, with a large swath in eastern Indiana. Right map shows the 3-day rainfall estimate from Stage IV. Map from https://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/precip_monitor/precip_monitor.php?atlas=atlas14&dataset=stage4&ari=1000y&duration=72h

CoCoRaHS observed rainfall from 12-14 August 2026 in eastern Indiana, with multiple reports of >10" and one of 12.08".

Exceedances of the 1000-year, 72-hr ARI from Stage IV in 2002-2025 in the general region around Indiana. There was a somewhat similar event nearby in August 2014 (the orange dots on the map), but the heavy rain wasn't nearly as widespread, nor were the accumulations as large. Map from https://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/precip_monitor/interactive.php?dataset=stage4&color=year&syear=2002&duration=72&ari=1000

23015

Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · 14/08/2026

downpour in Fort Collins, 1.34” in about 30 minutes at our house. More rain than June + July + the first 13 days of August combined #cowx

1293

Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · 11/08/2026

Tornado-warned bow echo with history of very strong winds moving into Chicago. That's going to cause some serious damage. (Tuesday, 10:33 CT)

Radarscope image of a bow echo moving into Chicago with tornado warnings for the entire Chicagoland area.

1126

Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · 07/08/2026

the ratio of atmospheric science textbooks authored to band members here is unparalleled

the Sun Dogs (Jon Martin, Grant Petty et al) performing in Madison, WI

1291

Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · 10/07/2026

bumping this in light of another 1000-yr rainstorm in Missouri overnight. A narrow band of extreme accumulations from a 'training line' mesoscale convective system.

Map of points exceeding the 1000-yr average recurrence interval for 6-h precipitation as of 1200 UTC 10 July 2026. There is a swath of points in southeastern Missouri that exceeded this threshold.

1245

Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · 03/07/2026

satellite imagery in Colorado this week continues to be a marvel, and not in a good way. intense thunderstorm complexes not that far away from huge smoke plumes caused by numerous destructive fires

0206

Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · 03/07/2026

Nature’s Fireworks™ last night in northern Colorado. Also a smoky moonrise. (disregard the annoying glare from my office window…) #cowx

2223

Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · 01/07/2026

And there are fun interactive versions that you can browse online. Choose a dataset and threshold, click on a point and see the precipitation for that case. schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/precip_monit...

Screenshot from the interactive maps showing the rainfall from the September 2013 Colorado flood in the inset.

120

Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · 01/07/2026

Of perhaps broader interest is that there is now a database of long-duration extreme events in different precipitation datasets. Here are some static maps from the paper...

Points with precipitation exceeding the 1000-yr ARI during 1981–2022 for (a) PRISM, 24 h; (b) CONUS404, 24 h; (c) PRISM, 48 h; (d) CONUS404, 48 h; (e) PRISM, 72 h; and (f) CONUS404, 72 h. Points are color shaded by year according to the legend at the bottom. All grid points are based on the 4-km latitude/longitude grid discussed in the text, but the circles are enlarged for greater readability. The outline for the Southwest region discussed in section 3b is shown in (a). The locations of the swaths associated with the 2015 South Carolina storm and Hurricane Florence (2018) are annotated in (e).

100

Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · 30/06/2026

the Aspen Acres fire has grown to over 22,000 acres since this morning. That is quite a rate of growth for a fire in forest

095

Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · 29/06/2026

Aspen Acres fire near Beulah, CO looks real bad - winds have been extremely strong in that area all morning and it's clearly burning very hot. Evacuations throughout the area. #cowx [animation from CIRA SLIDER]

2166

Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · 25/06/2026

Getting the opportunity this week to discuss climate and moose with the climooseologist himself @climatologist49.bsky.social

Photo of Russ and Brian at the American Association of State Climatologists meeting

1320

Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · 18/06/2026

incredible storm dynamics in the convective system in Louisiana, with massive rain amounts. Radar estimates & a gauge in the area showing 18+ inches in 6 hrs. Overlapping TORFF warnings earlier with the strong rotation, which we've shown can also boost rain rates. Not in a hurry to move either...

1143

Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · 11/06/2026

I assume that also includes how it initiated last night. impressive stuff.

040

Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · 03/06/2026

Noah, I think my time lapse cam caught your landspout last week - see about halfway through this clip

260

Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · 17/05/2026

@bianchiweather.bsky.social do you have information from a local source that the entire county is under mandatory evac? because that is not what the county itself says (posting from 2:45pm)

Baca County Emergency Management
·
Baca County CO Urgent: Mandatory evacuations are now in place for Town Campo and Rd 24 to Rd 36 south of Rd J to State Line due to wildfire. Active threat to life and property do not wait. Check on neighbors. Call 911 only for life threat emergencies. Evacuate to the north as fires are south moving northwest. Shelter open at Springfield School.

030

Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · 17/05/2026

superb bow & arrow overnight in the Great Plains

0294

Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · 10/05/2026

saw him enjoying a ride in the back of a pickup yesterday

big foot in the back of a gray pickup truck on the road

2251

Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · 06/05/2026

5.3” of heavy snow this morning in the backyard, for storm total of 5.5” so far, with some light snow still falling. Fort Collins 2.5NW #cowx

Photo of a ruler measuring 5.3” of snowfall

2212

Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · 04/05/2026

personally, I would put the high-end potential quite a bit higher than 7" in Fort Collins and 9" in Boulder. If the accumulation starts on the early side on Tuesday, with heavy snow overnight Tuesday night it seems like there's at least a chance of waking up to a foot of snow on Weds am. #cowx

NWS Boulder high-end snow amount graphic, showing 7" in Fort Collins, 4" in Denver, 9" in Boulder.

2244

Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · 04/05/2026

Finally the kind of storm we've been waiting all spring for in northern Colorado. #cowx

Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast for Colorado and surroundings, showing >1" of precipitation over all of northern Colorado and >3" in parts of the northern mountains.

Map of forecast snowfall range from NWS Boulder through Thursday morning, showing 2-5" in most of the urban corridor and >24" in some mountain areas.

2456

Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · 17/04/2026

Want a routine that gets you outside each morning? And to contribute to science while doing so? Consider joining CoCoRaHS during “Rain Gauge Rally” this April. Get a gauge, measure the precip (or lack thereof); that’s all there is to it! www.cocorahs.org

Rain Gauge Rally 2026
April 1-30, 2026
CoCoRaHS
How many new volunteers can you recruit in your state?

01410

Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · 07/04/2026

glides as softly as a cloud, you say? does the businessman look something like this, perchance?

Denver Post article:

$350 million vision for gondola transit in downtown Denver to be presented
People who want to move around downtown Denver could glide in gondola cabins 30 feet above ground if the city were to embrace a businessman’s $350 million plan.

1221

Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · 31/03/2026

I probably still have this 10th anniversary one sitting in my office somewhere lol

Lance Bosart and Morris Weisman in front of a conference poster commemorating the 10th anniversary of the challenge of convective forecasting colloquium

070

Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · 27/03/2026

this sums up the last few months pretty well darth

031

Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · 26/03/2026

very timely visit by @climateflavors.bsky.social to our department today, showing preliminary results that snow years like this one may be around a 1 in 5 year occurrence by end of century 😬

a picture of Flavio giving his presentation in front of some depressing graphs of future snowpack projections

1243

Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · 22/03/2026

oh, and are we all ready to run it back? Wednesday has a chance at being even warmer than yesterday. /end #cowx

map of daily records that are forecast to be tied/broken on Wednesday March 25. A broad swath of the western US has numbers on the map, including in Colorado: 88 in Denver, 91 in Pueblo, and 83 in Alamosa. From https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/exper/ndfd/ndfd.html

190

Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · 22/03/2026

High temperatures like these across the state in March are ridiculous. The March statewide record of 96°F was tied at several locations including Campo, Burlington, and La Junta (so far, data still coming in); pretty much every other March record was broken. #cowx 1/

Map of CoAgMET high temperatures for March 21, 2026, with highs in the 90s on the eastern plains, 70s in the mountains, and 80s on the western slope. From https://coagmet.colostate.edu

210334

Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · 18/03/2026

Updates of these plots for today's forecast model runs. They look about the same as they did four days ago. Record-smashing warmth coming up across the southwestern US over the next few days.

500-hPa height from the 00 UTC 18 March 2026 GFS forecast. Top left is the ERA5 max for March over 1951-2025; top right is the maximum predicted in the model over the run out to 360 hrs; bottom left is the difference between the two, and bottom right is the number of 6-hr forecast times that would be above the ERA5 monthly max. It shows broad areas where the 500-hPa height will be more than 50 m higher than previously observed in March, and the entire southwest will spend at least two full days in monthly record territory

Same as the previous figure, but for the ECMWF IFS model forecast. It shows even higher maximum heights over the southwestern US than the GFS forecast.

2255

Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · 14/03/2026

And the ECMWF IFS forecast, with some slight differences in details, but same story overall. Records for March warmth are going to be dropping left and right this week.

500-hPa height from the 00 UTC 14 March 2026 IFS forecast. Top left is the ERA5 max for March; top right is the maximum predicted in the model over the run out to 360 hrs; bottom left is the difference between the two, and bottom right is the number of 6-hr forecast times that would be above the ERA5 monthly max. It shows broad areas where the 500-hPa height will be more than 50 m higher than previously observed in March, and the entire southwest will spend at least two full days in monthly record territory

192

Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · 14/03/2026

By how much and for how long will the upcoming weather pattern--an astonishing anticyclone--be breaking March records in the west? A lot, and a long time. Here's GFS forecast 500hPa height compared to the March record. Breaking monthly records by >50m, and 2 to 5+ days in monthly record territory.

500-hPa height from the 00 UTC 14 March 2026 GFS forecast. Top left is the ERA5 max for March; top right is the maximum predicted in the model over the run out to 360 hrs; bottom left is the difference between the two, and bottom right is the number of 6-hr forecast times that would be above the ERA5 monthly max. It shows broad areas where the 500-hPa height will be more than 50 m higher than previously observed in March, and the entire southwest will spend at least two full days in monthly record territory

39923

Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · 13/03/2026

the NWS forecast for Fort Collins 👀 (our March record is 81)

Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Breezy.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 42. Breezy.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 86.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 45.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 90.

1100

Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · 13/03/2026

wow, I don’t recall CSU ever having a wind damage closure before

CSU closed March 13
Colorado State University is closed March 13.
All in-person, hybrid and remote classes and operations, including meetings and work functions, are canceled for all Larimer County campuses. CSU crews are assessing damage after high winds in the Fort Collins area, with damaged trees the primary concern.

45711

Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · 12/03/2026

high winds already getting started along the Front Range - very strong gusts likely in the foothills through the day today, and strong winds continuing off and on through Saturday. #cowx

NWS Fire Weather and Wind Overview March 12, 2026
From https://www.weather.gov/media/bou/DssPacket.pdf
Key Messages
➔ Prolonged period of strong, gusty winds and
critical fire weather conditions today through
Saturday
◆ Strongest (high) winds today
◆ High confidence in critical fire weather
conditions each day through Saturday
● Mainly plains and lowest foothills
● Above 7,000-7,500 feet, some
aspects less receptive due to recent
snow
➔ Wind uncertainties: Very sharp gradient in strong
winds near base of foothills today.
➔ Golden-Boulder-Fort Collins on this gradient, but
Fort Collins most susceptible in this event.
➔ Channels of wind Denver metro East & South

1135

Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · 11/03/2026

the warmest it's ever been in March in Fort Collins is 81°F. at this point, it seems like the question is not whether this will be broken next week, but how many times and by how much. 🫠#cowx

34616

Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · 10/03/2026

on my college keychain lanyard that is still in my desk

a photo of a worn and faded Valparaiso University lanyard with a REV 105 keychain on it

190

Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · 06/03/2026

1.5” of wet snow, Fort Collins 2.5NW. First measurable snow since the Broncos were still in the playoffs #cowx

photo of a hand holding a ruler measuring 1.5 inches of snow

1181

Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · 03/03/2026

A couple of the wildest graphs I recall making. It's been #warm... at Fort Collins the warmest climatological winter by nearly 4°F! #cowx 🌡️

graph showing the number of days in December through February with temperatures of 60F or above at Fort Collins, Colorado. This year had 43 which is almost double the previous high of 22.

graph showing the number of days in December through February with daily low above 32F at Fort Collins, Colorado. This year had 19 which is almost double the previous high of 10.

22311

Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · 24/02/2026

blowing construction material advisory in effect for CSU foothills campus

0172

Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · 23/02/2026

storms like this are where CoCoRaHS observers really shine. There's truly no other way to get this density, quality, and richness of snowfall data! Browse yourself at maps.cocorahs.org?maptype=snow...

Map of CoCoRaHS 24-hour snowfall observations on the morning of February 23, 2026, around New Jersey/NY/CT. It shows several observations of over 20" of snow.

The same map, highlighting one of the observations on Long Island that says "Gauge is buried under snow drift. Can’t get to it. Average depth of snow 19” "

04114

Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · 21/02/2026

for precipitation, a 3-day forecast now is about as good as a 1-day forecast was ~25 yrs ago. (Of course that’s an average…it can vary a lot from storm to storm)

Time series of forecast skill measured by threat score (higher is better) from the Weather Prediction Center. Skill has steadily risen over the decades from 1961 to 2024. From https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/hpcverif.shtml

121

Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · 18/02/2026

a 72-mph wind gust from a convective snowband in SW Colorado in February is not something you see every day/year! #cowx

radar image from southwestern Colorado showing a line of convection with reflectivity in the 'yellow' range

Time series from the Yellow Jacket CoAgMET station showing a gust to 71.6 mph with the passage of this line on the afternoon of February 18.

2368

Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · 16/02/2026

first legit mountain snowstorm since early December over the next few days. Bring it! ❄️ #cowx

NOAA Weather Prediction Center 72-h 50th percentile snowfall forecast through the morning of Thurs Feb 19. It shows totals over 24” across most of Colorado’s high elevations. Available from https://climate.colostate.edu/drought/#outlook

2489

Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · 10/02/2026

if the Colorado snowpack numbers from SNOTEL stations (52% of median) aren't low enough for you, they get even worse when looking at data across all elevations. Using the University of Arizona's SWE dataset, we're now below one-third of the usual snowpack (32.5%) as of February 9. #cowx

map of Colorado snowpack as a percent of the 1991-2020 median from the University of Arizona dataset. Statewide, it's 32.5% of median.

Time series of Colorado snow water equivalent for all years from 1982-2026. This year is the lowest in that timeframe, at 32% of the 1991-2020 median.

53016