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How Putin's Invasion of NATO Could Unfold as Estonia Border Closed
Russia could stage a limited incursion into Estonia to test NATO's resilience, according to a scenario from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which comes amid heightened tensions between Moscow and Tallinn. Russia's FSB intelligence services imposed restrictions last week on two Russian districts in the Leningrad oblast bordering Estonia—Kingisepp and Slantsy, limiting nighttime movement and access to parts of the Narva River both countries share. This follows Estonia's announcement that it would shut its border with Russia if Vladimir Putin ordered a mass mobilization in Russia to replenish losses in his war on Ukraine, a move which could prompt a mass exodus. Read More As officials in the wider Baltic region express alarm at Russian drone incursions, airspace violations, sabotage, and other hybrid threats, the ISW suggested that Narva, a predominantly Russian-speaking border town, could be at the frontline of Moscow's move on NATO. This would test NATO's Article 5 mutual defense clause, in which an attack on one is deemed an attack on all. The Washington, D.C., think tank emphasized that there is no current Russian buildup by the Baltic states and a Russian invasion of NATO is extremely unlikely while Vladimir Putin is militarily preoccupied...