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Reposted by Rorry Daniels

Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) @asiapolicy.asiasociety.org · 05/05/2025

🎧NEW: @zichen.bsky.social, founder and editor of Pekingology, joins @rorrydaniels.bsky.social on Asia Inside Out to unpack U.S.-China relations a month after “Liberation Day”, the future of the relationship, and why maintaining people-to-people ties still matter. Tune in now ⬇️

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Zichen Wang on the Evolving U.S.-China Relations - Asia Inside Out

Zichen Wang, founder and editor of the Pekingnology newsletter and research fellow and director for International Relations at the Center for China and Globalization (CCG), speaks with Rorry Daniels, ...

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Reposted by Rorry Daniels

Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) @asiapolicy.asiasociety.org · 27/02/2025

📺WATCH: ASPI's @rorrydaniels.bsky.social and @jamescrabtree.bsky.social join @tvpworld.bsky.social to discuss how #Trump's foreign policy shift will reshape #Asia. Watch the full interview ⬇️ www.youtube.com/watch?v=S4U7...

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Will Trump’s foreign policy shift reshape Asia? | Wider View

YouTube video by TVP WORLD

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Reposted by Rorry Daniels

The Wire China @thewirechina.bsky.social · 27/02/2025

"...all of the narratives about CCP influence remain salient. All of the irritants that seem pacified for now could easily rear up again if President Trump or his key advisors see value in using them for leverage..." — @rorrydaniels.bsky.social at @asiapolicy.asiasociety.org buff.ly/4gY97vE

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China Hawks Stop Squawking - The Wire China

The Trump administration’s early moves on China are making some Republicans nervous, though few hawks are openly voicing their doubts.

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Rorry Daniels @rorrydaniels.bsky.social · 12/12/2024

But internal cohesion--essential to the implementation of whatever deal is reached--augurs waiting and seeing if those contradictions resolve without providing too much input that would sway how they are reconciled. Will be watching closely! 6/6

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Rorry Daniels @rorrydaniels.bsky.social · 12/12/2024

5) Biggest variables are miscalculations of other side's priorities, internal cohesion (can Trump team speak with one voice?), and third parties/major events. Miscalculation and third party/event risk best managed through early meeting with low expectations... 5/6

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Rorry Daniels @rorrydaniels.bsky.social · 12/12/2024

4) We could see the US-Ch negotiate back to square one--the removal of restrictions on critical minerals, lifting of certain sanctions, tariffs go back to today's baseline, etc. This is still progress though, its a passable test of new players feeling each other out. 4/6

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Rorry Daniels @rorrydaniels.bsky.social · 12/12/2024

3) That opening gesture can set up a future bilat with more time to make progress on process/deliverables. The strategic question is whether the current moves/threats by both sides are anticipatory concessions or total spoilers 3/6

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Rorry Daniels @rorrydaniels.bsky.social · 12/12/2024

2) The Chinese would prefer a mtg that is bilateral (not Xi in a crowd) and controllable (no protests, some deliverables)--the inauguration is neither. However, Xi can send a personal envoy, a special gift, a letter, etc to pay respect to Trump 2/6

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Rorry Daniels @rorrydaniels.bsky.social · 12/12/2024

Will Xi Jinping attend Donald Trump's inauguration? I doubt it, but interesting opening move. My thoughts: 1) Xi and Trump do need to meet early to set the tone of the bilateral relationship over the next 4 years. No other channel will be authoritative enough for either side 1/6

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Rorry Daniels @rorrydaniels.bsky.social · 10/12/2024

Beijing views #Taiwan's Lai Ching-te as a separatist deterred only by force, while Lai avoids concessions amid domestic challenges and U.S. ties. How will the next year play out? Read more in @asiapolicy ’s new report: asiasociety.org/policy-insti... #ASPIChina2025

asiasociety.org

China 2025: What To Watch

China 2025: What to Watch is CCA's annual flagship report, forecasting China’s prospects and highlighting the most important developments to watch in the coming year.

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Rorry Daniels @rorrydaniels.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

9DASHLINE op-Ed by Rorry Daniels "For at least the next four years, downward pressure on the US-China relationship will prevent a breakthrough in cross-Taiwan Strait relations" buff.ly/3BtDxqK |

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9DASHLINE — New risks for Taiwan in Trump’s second term

Written by Rorry Daniels. For at least the next four years, downward pressure on the US-China relationship will prevent a breakthrough in cross-Taiwan Strait relations.

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Rorry Daniels @rorrydaniels.bsky.social · 14/10/2023

My first op-Ed for @USATODAY on why sanctions need an overhaul www.usatoday.com/story/opinio...

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