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Robson Fletcher

@robsonfletcher.com
15K followers 3.6K following 1.6K posts

Data & Storytelling Strategist. Views my own and subject to change, especially in light of new evidence. 🌐 robsonfletcher.com

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Robson Fletcher @robsonfletcher.com · 29/09/2026
The Calgary Chamber of Commerce & execs of major Alberta companies put out this open letter today in support of remaining in Canada: "Alberta’s success has not been built in isolation. It depends on our connections to the rest of Canada and the world..."
calgarychamber.com
Open letter: Alberta’s future is stronger in Canada - The Calgary Chamber
Open letter to Albertans on the October 19, 2026, referendum question on Alberta separating from Canada
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Robson Fletcher @robsonfletcher.com · 29/09/2026
Thank you!
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Robson Fletcher @robsonfletcher.com · 27/09/2026
I never said I was surprised
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Robson Fletcher @robsonfletcher.com · 27/09/2026
All this is to highlight our increasingly toxic information ecosystem. It's become trivially easy to fake something like this & motivated actors exist to do it. But Parks Canada is actually investigating, the paper is actually reporting on it & people are exchanging actual vitriol in the comments.
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Robson Fletcher @robsonfletcher.com · 27/09/2026
Meanwhile, Parks Canada has launched an investigation, which the local newspaper reported on. The paper had to disable online comments because of "an overwhelming number of readers making statements that could be considered offensive, libelous, untrue or vulgar."
rmoutlook.com
Parks Canada seeks public's help in Lake Louise graffiti investigation
Anyone with information that may assist with the investigation is asked to contact Banff National Park Dispatch at 403‑762‑1470.
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Robson Fletcher @robsonfletcher.com · 27/09/2026
Another Reddit account then reposted some of the photos to the general Alberta subreddit, which led moderators there to lock the post based on their determination that the still images and the video were AI-generated. They included a lengthy explanation of their rationale:
reddit.com
bpompu's comment on "Please stop drawing on the rocks at Devil’s Thumb, Banff National Park"
Explore this conversation and more from the alberta community
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Robson Fletcher @robsonfletcher.com · 27/09/2026
The original poster aggressively responded to numerous people who suggested the images were AI-generated, and later posted this video in an attempt to demonstrate the rock is real.
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Robson Fletcher @robsonfletcher.com · 27/09/2026
A recent post in the Banff subreddit caused a stir with an image of a rock that appeared to have people's names scrawled across it on Devil's Thumb above Lake Louise. Based on the names the replies devolved into anti-South-Asian racism. Some replies also suggested the image was AI-generated... 🧵
An image of a rock posted on Reddit with South-Asian-sounding names scrawled in large, block, black lettering.
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Robson Fletcher @robsonfletcher.com · 27/09/2026
A+ choice of thumbnail on this story. (Yes, that is a trail of pee the bear left on the pavement when the zombie went off.)
cbc.ca
As bear encounters rise in B.C., man uses motion-activated zombie to scare them away | CBC News
More than 33 bears have been killed by conservation officers in B.C. this year, including two that entered stores through automatic sliding doors in Hope and Squamish. It's led to creative solutions t...
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Robson Fletcher @robsonfletcher.com · 25/09/2026
Like, here's Trump and Putin doing it. The mic looks different though, in all the versions I've seen, than in the Poilievres' version. Not sure if they actually recorded their own version? Again... Context collapse.
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Robson Fletcher @robsonfletcher.com · 25/09/2026
For those confused because of the context-collapse reality we all live in now, this is an AI-generated meme trend that the Poilievres have jumped on. The song is by American rappers Quavo & Takeoff. Takeoff was accused of sexual assault in a civil lawsuit in 2020. He was murdered in 2022.
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Robson Fletcher @robsonfletcher.com · 25/09/2026
This is fascinating! Great idea mining the CES data.
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chrispyross.bsky.social @chrispyross.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Inspired by Robson's post showing Alberta market incomes are still about 11% below their peak, I looked at how people actually feel using the Canadian Election Study. I
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Robson Fletcher @robsonfletcher.com · 24/09/2026
The referendum is just over 3 weeks away and Elections Alberta is still short 35,000 workers.
cbc.ca
Elections Alberta less than halfway to its goal of 60K referendum election workers | CBC News
With just over a month to go before the fall referendum, Elections Alberta has hired 25,000 election officers, roughly 35,000 short of its goal.
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Robson Fletcher @robsonfletcher.com · 24/09/2026
Whenever I read a headline like this my brain always goes to the performer first. "Why was Weird Al in a photo with Melania Trump?" was my initial thought. "Was she at one of his concerts?"
newrepublic.com
Trump Edits Melania Out of Weird AI Photo—but Leaves in an Aide
Donald Trump heavily edited the photo of himself with Chinese President Xi Jinping, with a couple major choices.
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Robson Fletcher @robsonfletcher.com · 23/09/2026
Got to spend some time in Northern Manitoba this week and it is a gorgeous time of year up here.
Lakes of northern Manitoba as seen from the air Sunset Park in The Pas, ManitobaA point of land extends into clear, blue-green waters of Clearwater LakeA beach on Clearwater Lake
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Robson Fletcher @robsonfletcher.com · 23/09/2026
Don't take the "Cambridge Votes" logo too literally, either.
"Cambridge Votes" logo with an "X" marked in the circle of the 'O'
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Robson Fletcher @robsonfletcher.com · 23/09/2026
Aaaaaand.... they changed their mind
cbc.ca
Golden reverses decision to align clocks with B.C., will match Alberta instead | CBC News
Golden was set to be the sole community in the East Kootenay synced with B.C. after the Regional District of the East Kootenay voted for permanent mountain daylight time, in alignment with Alberta.
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Robson Fletcher @robsonfletcher.com · 20/09/2026
It's really the interactions between the zones that get confusing. Like the NW Ontario "sandwich". Or western Manitoba being on the same time as eastern Quebec, despite being 2,500 kms apart east-west. Or whatever's going on in the territories. 😅
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Robson Fletcher @robsonfletcher.com · 20/09/2026
I recently signed a contract to do a job in Manitoba and just arrived in Winnipeg. So, Connor Hellebuyck, it IS possible.
Welcome polar bear wearing high viz at the (under renovation) Winnipeg International Airport.
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Robson Fletcher @robsonfletcher.com · 20/09/2026
That's a good point! But lol northwestern Manitoba and the eastern tip of Anticosti Island being on a single time zone is objectively nuts.
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Robson Fletcher @robsonfletcher.com · 20/09/2026
I don't think enough people understand how dark it's going to be late into the morning in winter now. We're going to go months without seeing the sun rise before 9 a.m.
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Robson Fletcher @robsonfletcher.com · 20/09/2026
I still can't believe that lol
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Robson Fletcher @robsonfletcher.com · 20/09/2026
Perhaps that new nub of bizarre winter time in northwestern Ontario, out of sync with both Manitoba to its west and the rest of Ontario to its east, will be enough to re-ignite the Rat Portage War.
canadaehx.substack.com
The Ontario-Manitoba Border War
(Not really a war, but a good dispute...)
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Robson Fletcher @robsonfletcher.com · 20/09/2026
Just don't rely on AI 😅
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Robson Fletcher @robsonfletcher.com · 20/09/2026
It's not visible on that map but the Town of Golden, in the little strip of southeastern BC that's on Mountain Time along with Alberta, also plans to switch to Pacific Time. That will make it a little island in the East Kootenay region, an hour apart from its neighbours, but in line with Vancouver.
cbc.ca
Golden to align with Pacific time zone after final November clock change | CBC News
Time is changing in Golden, B.C., and some residents say it is not what they wanted.
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Robson Fletcher @robsonfletcher.com · 20/09/2026
Canada's new time zones are confusing and hilarious. (Here's data journalist @graemebruce.bsky.social trying to make it make sense: www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...)
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Robson Fletcher @robsonfletcher.com · 18/09/2026
Ah, this unfortunately is where some nuance of the full episode was lost in the shortened TikTok video. Matt explained he supports having a referendum on separation as a democratic process but does not, himself, actually support separating. "I believe we're best served in Canada," he said.
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Robson Fletcher @robsonfletcher.com · 18/09/2026
An hour of me talking about polling data on separation sentiment with CBC Alberta at Noon host Andrew Brown, trimmed down to 3 minutes:
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Robson Fletcher @robsonfletcher.com · 18/09/2026
"There is a strong Alberta identity and an equally strong Canadian one. There is deep skepticism about Ottawa but very little appetite to accept the risks of leaving Canada. And perhaps most importantly, there is widespread belief that whatever happens on Oct. 19, the argument is not going away."
davidcoletto.substack.com
Alberta Isn’t Leaving Canada. That Doesn’t Mean the Federation Is Fine.
Five reports and 1,000 interviews reveal a province that is deeply frustrated, still strongly Canadian, and heading toward a referendum result that almost nobody expects will end the argument.
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Robson Fletcher @robsonfletcher.com · 17/09/2026
Why do so many organizations use it, I just don't get it 😭
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Robson Fletcher @robsonfletcher.com · 17/09/2026
They do not feel like completed software projects
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Robson Fletcher @robsonfletcher.com · 17/09/2026
OK, thank you! I hate this, but I'm glad I'm not alone! 😅
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Robson Fletcher @robsonfletcher.com · 17/09/2026
When I worked at CBC we used Google: Docs, Sheets, Meet, Drive, etc. As an independent consultant I'm now using Microsoft more often: Sharepoint, Teams, etc. Is it me, or are the MS tools so buggy? Seems like a constant stream of slow loading, incorrect authentication or things just breaking. 😑
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Lisa Young 🇨🇦🇺🇦 @jlisayoung.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
At best, the Elections Alberta is an underfunded, over-employed shambles. At worst, it was responding to government pressure to ensure a desired outcome. If the latter, it’s a 5-alarm fire. www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...
cbc.ca
Former Elections Alberta staff raise ‘mismanagement’ concerns about 'Water Not Coal' petition verification | CBC News
Five former Elections Alberta employees are raising “mismanagement” concerns about how Corb Lund's citizen initiative petition was validated, alleging procedures changed and that there was a lack of t...
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Courtney Theriault @ctheriault.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
NEW: Corb Lund has penned a letter to Premier Smith, calling for an immediate coal moratorium, claiming that former Elections Alberta staff have raised serious questions about the validation process of his petition.
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Robson Fletcher @robsonfletcher.com · 16/09/2026
Those are some highlights that stand out to me! You can read more about these results, and explore the data, here:
abacusdata.ca
Alberta at a Crossroads: A Liberal Prime Minister Is More Popular Than Alberta's Own Premier - Abacus Data
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Robson Fletcher @robsonfletcher.com · 16/09/2026
Albertans who would vote to Remain in Canada in the October referendum have very different views of the leaders than those who would vote to Commence the Separation Process. 44% of those who would vote to Commence have a positive impression of Trump.
% with positive impression of a leader: Remain voter / Commence voter

Smith: 19/69
Nenshi: 39/7
Kenney: 23/22
Notley: 36/10
Poilievre: 26/73
Carney: 57/11
Trump: 4/44
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Robson Fletcher @robsonfletcher.com · 16/09/2026
While her party leads in the vote intent, Premier Danielle Smith is seen quite negatively by Albertans. She has a net favourability of -18. Nenshi is at -11. (He also has a relatively high "don't know enough" to say, at 13%) Only Poilievre (+4) and Carney (+3) have net positives. Trump is -58.
Very positive / Somewhat Positive / Neutral / Somewhat Negative / Very Negative / Don't Know Enough:

Smith: 14/18/15/14/36/(small)
Nenshi: 10/18/20/10/28/13
Kenney: (small)/17/30/18/17/13
Notley: 11/16/26/11/24/12
Poilievre: 17/22/19/13/21/9
Carney: 18/23/17/12/25/(small)
Trump: (small)/9/10/10/63/(small)
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Robson Fletcher @robsonfletcher.com · 16/09/2026
I recently worked with Abacus Data on a poll of Albertans. Today we are releasing the 3rd of 5 reports. It looks at leader impressions and how people would vote in a provincial election. The topline vote numbers: 🔵 UCP: 52% 🟠 NDP: 39% 🟢 TORY: 6% 🧵...
UCP / NDP / Progressive Tory support:

All decided voters: 52/39/6

Calgary: 49/41/8

Edmonton: 38/52/7

Small cities/bedroom communities: 58/33/<6

Rural: 67/24/<6

Men: 58/32/8

Women: 44/46/<6

18-to-29: 44/44/9

60 and older: 54/39/<6

Remain voters: 33/55/8

Commence separation process voters: 88/<6/<6
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Robson Fletcher @robsonfletcher.com · 15/09/2026
Those are the highlights that stand out to me! You can read more about these results, and explore the data, here:
abacusdata.ca
Alberta at a Crossroads: Two-Thirds Will Vote to Stay, and a Vote to Proceed Is Not a Vote to Leave - Abacus Data
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Robson Fletcher @robsonfletcher.com · 15/09/2026
Overall, most people are pretty certain of how they will vote. But the 'Remain' voters are more sure of their vote than the 'Commence' voters who, by comparison, are a bit less certain. Older voters tend to be more locked-in on their decisions than younger voters, too.
All decided voters: 72% completely certain of how they will vote, 20% fairly certain

Remain voters: 84% completely certain, 13% fairly certain

Commence voters: 55% completely certain, 34% fairly certain

18-to-29 year olds: 62% completely certain, 26% fairly certain

60 & older: 84% completely certain, 12% fairly certain
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Robson Fletcher @robsonfletcher.com · 15/09/2026
Of the Albertans who would vote to commence the separation process: → 67% say they would actually vote to separate in a future, binding referendum. → 23% say their future vote would depend on circumstances at the time → 7% say they would vote to stay in Canada → 2% Unsure
Bar chart showing Two-thirds of 'Commence' voters would actually vote to separate, about a quarter say it depends, and 7% say they would actually vote to stay in Canada if it came down to a binding referendum.
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Robson Fletcher @robsonfletcher.com · 15/09/2026
Of course, vote intention is one thing. Actual votes is quite another. So we ran a mathematical model (a Monte Carlo simulation) of 200,000 referendum outcomes. It found the 'Commence the separation process' vote is likely to land near 31%, based on current assumptions (including turnout).
Monte Carlo simulation of 200,000 referendum outcomes puts 'Commence' vote between 24% and 38%, with a central estimate of 31%, based on stated vote intentions, turnout likelihood, undecided allocation and campaign movement assumptions.

Nerdy details: Sampling error is applied to the allocated shares using the study's sample size. Turnout propensity is assigned from the likelihood-to-vote scale, ranging from 90% for those who say they will definitely vote to near zero for those who say they will not, with random variation of about eight per cent on each side. The truly undecided who do vote are assumed to break between roughly 20% and 60% for Option 2, centred on 40%, reflecting the tendency of undecided referendum voters to favour the status quo. Between zero and 4% of remain-leaning voters are assumed to leave the question blank. And a symmetric campaign-movement term with a standard deviation of three points is applied to the final share. The model does not assume any systematic late swing toward the status quo, although the record of Scotland in 2014 and Quebec in 1980 suggests one is more likely than the reverse; if it occurred, the range would shift downward.
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Robson Fletcher @robsonfletcher.com · 15/09/2026
I recently worked with Abacus Data on a poll of Albertans, probing deeper into the separation debate. Today we are releasing the 2nd of 5 reports. This one looks at vote intentions: 🟢 64% Remain ⚫ 24% Commence separation process 🤷 9% Undecided 💨 3% Would skip question This varies by region. 🧵...
Chart showing remain/commence vote Alberta-wide at 64/24
Calgary: 71/19
Edmonton 78/16
Small cities & bedroom communities: 59/32
Rural areas: 46/31
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Eamon Javers @eamonjavers.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
This is a subhed for the ages in the WSJ this morning: “Talk of heading off artificial intelligence’s potential role in destroying humanity hurt some stocks and helped others”
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Robson Fletcher @robsonfletcher.com · 14/09/2026
You can listen to the whole call-in show on demand here: 🔊: www.cbc.ca/listen/live-... Lots of discussion from Albertans with various points of view on separation, democracy, and the province's place in Canada.
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Robson Fletcher @robsonfletcher.com · 14/09/2026
About to go live on CBC Radio One across Alberta. Tune in & call in if you want to participate! 📞 1-866-468-4422
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Robson Fletcher @robsonfletcher.com · 14/09/2026
About 1 in 4 Albertans say the separation debate has created tension in a relationship, according to new polling I worked on with Abacus Data. Today I'll be on Alberta At Noon, CBC Radio One's provincewide call-in show, to talk about that. Call in & share your perspective! Show runs 12 pm - 1 pm.
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Robson Fletcher @robsonfletcher.com · 14/09/2026
I recently worked with Abacus Data on a poll of Albertans, probing deeper into the sentiments underlying the separation debate. Today we are releasing the first of five reports. It explores an apparent contradiction: how Albertans feel both deeply attached to Canada & also deeply aggrieved by it.
abacusdata.ca
Alberta at a Crossroads: Albertans Hold the Grievance and the Flag at the Same Time - Abacus Data
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