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Robin Lamboll

@robinlamboll.bsky.social
1.3K followers 388 following 154 posts

Climate sciences research fellow at Imperial College London. UK poetry slam champion 2019. linktr.ee/rlamboll

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Robin Lamboll @robinlamboll.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
www.patreon.com/Ericellman/p... if your human eyes can't read qr codes.
patreon.com
Human Words. Machine Words. Whose are they? | Eric Ellman
A workshop exploring poetry, creativity, Artificial Intelligence and ownership. Who gets the credit? Organized by Eric Ellman with creative
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Robin Lamboll @robinlamboll.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
I'll be helping out in a little poetry workslop on AI poetry. It's this Wednesday, on a boat.
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Robin Lamboll @robinlamboll.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
How is agriculture coping with the heatwave/drought in the UK? My dad is hand-watering whole fields of courgettes and pumpkins repeatedly. Normally he only needs to do this when he plants them.
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Robin Lamboll @robinlamboll.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
I'll be at the Beth Chatto symposium next month, on a panel discussing how gardening and food production can continue under a changing climate! www.bethchatto.co.uk/symposium/sy...
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Robin Lamboll @robinlamboll.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
8/ Bonus note: even very well-meaning people have a habit of abbreviating “well below 2C” to “2C”. I recommend abbreviating it to “well below” instead. That link to the paper again: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Future-proofing interpretations of the Paris Agreement’s limit of well below 2 °C - Nature Climate Change
Here the authors show that a common interpretation of the Paris Agreement’s ‘well below 2° C’ target is changing with time, which could lead to higher overall warming. They propose that using median t...
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Robin Lamboll @robinlamboll.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
7/ Other interpretations of aspects of the Paris agreement, such as a return to 1.5C by 2100 or net-zero GHG by end of century, reinforce "well below 2C" but don't replace it. Meeting any one of them doesn't guarantee meeting the others.
plot showing that the year of net zero provides very little constraint on the probability of remaining below 2CPlot showing that median warming in 2100 is a fairly weak constraint on median peak warming for low 2100 warming
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Robin Lamboll @robinlamboll.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
6/ Our paper sets out the problem and offers a range of consistent definitions, along with a technique for translating others. We recommend treating "well below 2C" as keeping the median temperature rise below 1.65C, or up to 1.8C under more conservative readings
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Robin Lamboll @robinlamboll.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
5/ Note – it’s possible that scientist’s estimates of uncertainty increase over time, but this is really because our old estimates of uncertainty were too low. It would be extraordinary for our actual ability to estimate what the temperature would be in, say, 2095, to be worse in 2090.
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Robin Lamboll @robinlamboll.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
4/ As time goes on and confidence in climate projections grows, the amount of warming permitted under the target also increases and may approach 2C. This doesn’t depend on Earth science getting better. Simply observing more warming narrows uncertainty, pushing the effective target toward 2C.
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Robin Lamboll @robinlamboll.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
3/ Some translated "well below 2C" as "likely (66%+) or very likely (90%+) below 2C", probability language borrowed from the IPCC. This might make sense under a "guardrail" framing if warming up to 2C was considered acceptable. But the Paris agreement explicitly rejects the notion of 2C as “safe”.
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Robin Lamboll @robinlamboll.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
2/ As temperatures approach the 1.5C limit, attention is shifting to the other Paris target: "well below 2C". But there's no clear definition of what this means, so scientists had to try and guess what reasonable definitions were.
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Robin Lamboll @robinlamboll.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
1/ Predictions of future climate improve over time, but this shouldn't weaken the Paris Agreement. But in several widespread interpretations of "well below 2C", it does. New (short!) paper with @joerirogelj proposes a fix. www.nature.com/articles/s41... 🧵
nature.com
Future-proofing interpretations of the Paris Agreement’s limit of well below 2 °C - Nature Climate Change
Here the authors show that a common interpretation of the Paris Agreement’s ‘well below 2° C’ target is changing with time, which could lead to higher overall warming. They propose that using median t...
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Future-proofing Paris Agreement requires focus on median warming In a new paper, Prof @joerirogelj.bsky.social & Dr @robinlamboll.bsky.social warn that global warming closer to 2°C is at risk if countries don't use median temperature targets to guide reductions in emissions 🧵 buff.ly/pbNssJf
nature.com
Future-proofing interpretations of the Paris Agreement’s limit of well below 2 °C - Nature Climate Change
Here the authors show that a common interpretation of the Paris Agreement’s ‘well below 2° C’ target is changing with time, which could lead to higher overall warming. They propose that using median t...
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Robin Lamboll @robinlamboll.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
I'll be doing a half hour of science poetry at Morden Family Fun Day in the Poet's corner from 3pm - come along if you're nearby! www.mertoncharityevents.org.uk/morden-famil...
mertoncharityevents.org.uk
Morden Family Fun Day — Merton Charity Events
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Robin Lamboll @robinlamboll.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
Both changes and rates of change of temp influence extinction www.nature.com/articles/s41..., so we can go down too fast. But sea level rise, and plausibly tipping points, take time to lock in www.nature.com/articles/s41.... Humans over-adapting seems unusual www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.....
nature.com
Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks - Nature Communications
Temporarily overshooting the 1.5 °C limit risks triggering climate tipping elements. This study finds that every 0.1 °C of warming increases risk, with a strong acceleration above +2.0 °C. Achieving n...
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Reposted by Robin Lamboll
Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial @ic-cep.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
Professor @joerirogelj.bsky.social and Dr @robinlamboll.bsky.social have contributed to the latest Indicators of Global Climate Change (IGCC) assessment, showing human-induced warming reached 1.37°C in 2025. At current emissions trends, 1.5°C could be exceeded within around four years.
imperial.ac.uk
Earth's climate continues to warm as heat accumulation reaches record levels
Researchers from Imperial College London have contributed to a major international climate assessment showing that the Earth is accumulating heat at...
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Robin Lamboll @robinlamboll.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
Sadly due to multiple injuries, the ballet performance has been cancelled - but there are still many cool stalls at the Festival!
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Robin Lamboll @robinlamboll.bsky.social · 31/05/2026
Next weekend I'll be at the Great Exhibition Road Festival, taking part in the science ballet show - free tickets at www.greatexhibitionroadfestival.co.uk/event/dancin.... (Plus a short stint on the stall exploring links between ecology and pets.)
greatexhibitionroadfestival.co.uk
Dancing Nature: Science Storytelling Through Ballet - The Great Exhibition Road Festival
Join our Biology Ballerina for an exploration of the natural world through pliés and pirouettes.
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Robin Lamboll @robinlamboll.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
After YEARS of climate scientists using '1% CO2 growth per year' to calculate atmospheric constants to TERRIFY us, the UN's TOP climate scientist (Detlef Van Vuuren) just admitted that scenario was WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! I hope henceforth we will calculate TCR using TRUTH, SCIENCE and SSP2-4.5!
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Robin Lamboll @robinlamboll.bsky.social · 04/04/2026
Every word of this paper on how a sea lion can beat humans at dancing is a gem, but best of all is the general tone that it was written by a proud sea lion's mum using science words to describe a rave. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
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Robin Lamboll @robinlamboll.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
Strong legal ruling from the Dutch courts, obliging the government to strength climate targets and provide climate resilience for the residents of Bonaire! www.rechtspraak.nl/organisatie-...
Text block: The Dutch government is not doing enough to protect the residents of Bonaire from climate change and its consequences. In addition, Bonaire's residents have been treated differently than residents of the European Netherlands without good reason. This violates the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR). This follows from a ruling by the District Court of The Hague in a substantive case brought by Greenpeace against the government. The government must incorporate binding interim targets into national legislation within 18 months to reduce greenhouse gas emissions for the entire economy. The government must also have and implement a detailed plan by 2030 to make Bonaire more resilient to the effects of climate change.
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Greenpeace EU @greenpeace.eu · 28/01/2026
This is absolutely HUGE news – a court in the Hague has ruled that the Dutch government is failing the people of Bonaire, and must set up a climate adaptation plan for them AND raise its climate targets Major victory for #ClimateJustice, and for the people of Bonaire
greenpeace.org
Historic victory: Dutch court declares climate policy inadequate in Bonaire climate case | Greenpeace Nederland | Voor een groene, leefbare aarde 🌍 - Greenpeace Nederland
The Hague, 28 January 2026
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Robin Lamboll @robinlamboll.bsky.social · 26/01/2026
Just a few quotes from the Declaration of Independence
He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies without the Consent of our legislatures.

He has affected to render the Military independent of and superior to the Civil power.

He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his Assent to their Acts of pretended Legislation:

For Quartering large bodies of armed troops among us:

For protecting them, by a mock Trial, from punishment for any Murders which they should commit on the Inhabitants of these States:

For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world:

For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent:

For depriving us in many cases, of the benefits of Trial by Jury:

For transporting us beyond Seas to be tried for pretended offences:
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Robin Lamboll @robinlamboll.bsky.social · 28/12/2025
I wish little chocolates didn't come individually wrapped. (Not for environmental reasons, just to make it harder to see how many I've eaten.)
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Hannah Daly @hannahdaly.ie · 02/12/2025
If Ireland's emissions are "too small to matter" then I might as well evade my taxes and eat doughnuts for lunch. Read my latest column about the laziest excuse in the climate debate: www.irishtimes.com/environment/...
irishtimes.com
‘Too small to matter’ is the laziest-possible excuse in climate debate
At a time of crisis, co-operation is the only way to resolve the climate collective-action problem
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Robin Lamboll @robinlamboll.bsky.social · 22/11/2025
The text is also relatively good for indigenous rights, including the first acknowledgement of tribes in voluntary isolation. It also featured distinct progress on loss and damages.
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Robin Lamboll @robinlamboll.bsky.social · 22/11/2025
Nonetheless, it has provided a few points of light. The reaffirmation of the importance of keeping 1.5C in reach, implicitly even when it may be temporarily exceeded, is good, but relatively toothless. The need for more on how and who would pay for this is essential going forwards.
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Robin Lamboll @robinlamboll.bsky.social · 22/11/2025
This COP has been deeply disappointing. It claimed to be a COP of action, but all comments on fossil fuels, and even most comments on deforestation that this COP was supposed to highlight, have been removed from the final text. Being literally on fire at one point was a fitting metaphor.
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Robin Lamboll @robinlamboll.bsky.social · 21/11/2025
Kenya have got their text into the loss and damages agreement and it looks unanimous now, so there will be an agreement coming out of COP!
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Robin Lamboll @robinlamboll.bsky.social · 18/11/2025
On Wednesday, I'll be on a panel about climate justice at COP30 in Belem. We'll be talking about indigenous rights, community judgement of COPs and what climate justice looks like - I'll be more on the metrics and less on the social side of these questions!
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Johannes Emmerling @johannesemm.bsky.social · 13/11/2025
Tracking market reactions to COP30 in real-time! As COP30 unfolds in Brazil (Nov 10-21), our live tracker shows how different stocks respond. Updated daily. 👉 johannesemm.shinyapps.io/HowStocksJud... Credits: @robinlamboll.bsky.social (Imperial College) & @johannesemm.bsky.social (CMCC) #COP30
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Robin Lamboll @robinlamboll.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
I'll be presenting on including AI effects in energy models at IAMC this Wednesday. Then next Wednesday I'll be in Belém to give a short talk as part of an event on COPs, indigenous activism and climate justice in the Blue Zone GUAC pavilion at 10.30. If you are around, catch me for a chat!
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Robin Lamboll @robinlamboll.bsky.social · 08/11/2025
Yes, it's pretty undeniable that they've made huge unforced errors (see also the oil decision apnews.com/article/braz...). We will see if the net effect is good or bad in a few weeks time.
apnews.com
Brazil's government greenlights oil drilling near mouth of Amazon River ahead of UN climate summit
Brazil’s government has approved exploratory drilling by state-run oil-giant Petrobras near the mouth of the Amazon River.
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Robin Lamboll @robinlamboll.bsky.social · 08/11/2025
By this measure, nothing else has made any difference either. But there are more precise metrics that show other stories, e.g. emissions per capita are descending. COPs have been woefully insufficient, but the question we pose here is "are they better than nothing", and the answer is "probably".
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Robin Lamboll @robinlamboll.bsky.social · 08/11/2025
These feedbacks are real, however bear in mind that there are also substantial net negative feedbacks, which largely cancel them in our best estimates. There's some uncertainty but even signs of larger than expected feedbacks don't change this picture that much e.g. www.cell.com/one-earth/fu...
cell.com
Warming of northern peatlands increases the global temperature overshoot challenge
The study highlights the critical role of northern peatlands in amplifying climate change under overshoot scenarios, that is, when global temperature temporarily exceeds the targeted level. We simulat...
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Robin Lamboll @robinlamboll.bsky.social · 07/11/2025
Modelling global total GHG emissions given (current) NDCs and policy.
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Robin Lamboll @robinlamboll.bsky.social · 07/11/2025
No, it's the high, medium and low estimates of current policies and conditional/unconditional NDCs economically modelled to 2035 then extended in a variety of ways.
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Robin Lamboll @robinlamboll.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
We do a lot of other stuff so I've done a longer writeup here: scienceisshiny.wordpress.com/2025/11/06/h... and the main paper is here again: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1... Thanks to coauthors @setupelz.bsky.social and @dralaaclimate.bsky.social for ushering this through in time!
scienceisshiny.wordpress.com
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Robin Lamboll @robinlamboll.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
4) If COPs make markets think about the environment, but not about what a sustainable society involves, we expect a premium for companies considered individually green (which we estimate with ESG ratings from Sustainalytics). We see a strong effect here!
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Robin Lamboll @robinlamboll.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
3) If COPs are useless, or entirely predictable, markets shouldn’t notice them. If they’re actively greenwashing, FF stocks should grow. We don’t see these things. Some hope!
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Robin Lamboll @robinlamboll.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
2) If COPs sometimes signal more climate action and sometimes less, we expect market volatility in transition-relevant sectors to rise, but not necessarily changes in the average stock price. We see slightly raised market volatility in general, but not specific to these sectors.
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Robin Lamboll @robinlamboll.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
While there are many ways we can tackle climate change (varying levels of demand reduction, nuclear power etc.), almost all involve much less FF and more REs. Sadly we see weak signs of FF falls (not robust between different statistical approaches), no sign of RE rising.
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Robin Lamboll @robinlamboll.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
We considered several possibilities: 1) If governments often show trustworthy signals of higher climate action during COPs, the stock prices of renewable energy (RE) companies should rise and that of fossil fuels (FFs) should fall.
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Robin Lamboll @robinlamboll.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
TL;DR: COPs move stocks, but not in the way you might hope. COPs strongly benefit green-rated stocks, but have only mild signs of harming fossil fuels (though getting stronger) and no sign of benefiting renewables (and getting worse).
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Robin Lamboll @robinlamboll.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
Do climate conferences actually achieve anything? A lot of people have strong opinions, but we wanted measurements, so we look at how the stock market moves during yearly international meetings called COPs – explanation below, or read the paper here: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
iopscience.iop.org
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To ensure we keep this website safe, please can you confirm you are a human by ticking the box below.
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Robin Lamboll @robinlamboll.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
I can't think of a socio-economic scenarios paper where you'd see such a graph, even aimed at a technical audience. Perhaps you can find one with temperature contributions over some future period for a few scenarios but it would be a tremendous mess to do for even ~5 emissions species x 3 scenarios.
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
📈COP delivers stock market boost for ‘green’ companies but renewables unaffected, Imperial College London study shows 🧵 Read it here: ow.ly/o6xY50XnEuH
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Robin Lamboll @robinlamboll.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
This is for current policies, conditional and unconditional NDCs but not including net zero targets.
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Robin Lamboll @robinlamboll.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
This is the methane emissions for the full uncertainty range prior to including the net zero targets. You effectively average over 5 of these scenarios to get the stats, and do something similar for confidence intervals. There isn't an official data product for this (yet?).
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Robin Lamboll @robinlamboll.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
No one has ever expressed an interest in any forcings data and I no longer even output them to file. The key point is that they're from FaIR-1.6.4, so you can just complain about that in general and it will apply.
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